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Potential Impact of Shutdown on Democratic Senators

Fiddytree

Fiddytree

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[FONT=&quot]Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana — which voted for Trump by 20.5 points in 2016 — saw his net approval rating fall by 18 percentage points by the end of the year, the most of any of those Democratic incumbents, with 47 percent approving of him and 40 percent disapproving, as of the end of December. Much of the decline — 13 points — in Tester’s net rating came during the fourth quarter, with a 9-point slide among independents and 27-point drop among GOP voters.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Other Democrats in Trump country who saw net declines during the fourth quarter include Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana (-7 points) and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota (-6 points). Donnelly’s net approval dropped 11 points among independents and 12 points among Republicans, while Heitkamp’s fell 7 points among independents and double that amount among GOP voters.

Despite those dips, Heitkamp, with a net approval rating 17 points in the black, and Donnelly, with net approval of 14 points, are still among the top five Senate incumbents up for re-election this year in Trump-won states. Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida remained the most popular in that group, with a 25-point net approval."
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https://morningconsult.com/2018/01/23/senator-rankings-jan-2018/

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This graph highlights that there has been a hit in recent days on vulnerable Democratic Senators. While this may be related to the government shutdown (as talk had circulated throughout Q4 2017), there are two things to keep in mind:

1) The brief duration of the shutdown and the news cycle may make the shutdown moot in these states.

2) This may simply highlight natural ebbs and flows of a close environment during an election year.
 
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