By Alex Isenstadt 12/21/2017
A few weeks before Alabama's special Senate election, President Donald Trump’s handpicked Republican National Committee leader, Ronna Romney McDaniel, delivered a two-page memo to White House chief of staff John Kelly outlining the party’s collapse with female voters. McDaniel’s memo, which detailed the president's poor approval numbers among women nationally and in several states, would go unheeded, as Trump eventually went all-in for the ultimately unsuccessful Republican candidate. The backstage talks provide a window into how those closest to Trump are bracing for a possible bloodbath in the 2018 midterms, which could obliterate the Republican congressional majorities and paralyze the president’s legislative agenda. In recent weeks, some of the president’s advisers have taken it upon themselves to warn him directly about the fast-deteriorating political environment. White House officials have convened to discuss ways to improve his standing with suburban voters. And on Wednesday, the president met with Kelly, political director Bill Stepien, communications director Hope Hicks, former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski and Brad Parscale, Trump’s digital director in the 2016 campaign, to discuss the political landscape. In an interview this week, Stepien acknowledged the pattern of presidents losing seats in Congress in their first midterm election. But he argued that it's far too early to write off the GOP in 2018.
Among GOP leaders, however, there is widespread concern heading into 2018. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has said privately that both chambers could be lost in November. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has told donors that he fears a wave of swing district Republican lawmakers could retire rather than seek reelection. Trump is well aware of the dangers his party faces in 2018, those who’ve discussed it with him say. The president, however, has shrugged off some early setbacks. After the Alabama loss, he gathered with Vice President Mike Pence, Kelly, Stepien and deputy chief of staff Rick Dearborn. The group dived into the results, talking through why the race played out as it did. But some Republicans are still sounding the alarm. Scott Jennings, a former top political adviser in the George W. Bush White House who is close to McConnell, said the president has major political challenges in the coming year: improving his approval numbers, ensuring the party nominates strong general election candidates, and selling his economic accomplishments. “There are 10 months to improve the fundamentals here, and the Senate map is, on paper, good. But maps don’t make majorities and I think there’s a realization that there’s at least a 50 percent chance one or both chambers could fall,” Jennings said. “In less than one year, this first term could be, for all intents and purposes, over if the Democrats take control of either chamber.”
