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Thread: Trump Voters: Behold your success

  1. #181
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    Re: Trump Voters: Behold your success

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    The point is: They are wrong.

    IF they were right, there would be a post Depression precedent for this dismal projection.

    There is not.

    They are wrong.
    I am amazed that you still don't understand what the JCT is saying. They ARE NOT saying that GDP growth will only be 0.8% after a decade. They are saying that the boost from this tax plan will only be 0.8%. If GDP growth is 2.5% per year, after ten years it will be 25.8%, according to the JCT. There is plenty of precedent for a projection such as that.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

  2. #182
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    Re: Trump Voters: Behold your success

    Quote Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
    I am amazed that you still don't understand what the JCT is saying. They ARE NOT saying that GDP growth will only be 0.8% after a decade. They are saying that the boost from this tax plan will only be 0.8%. If GDP growth is 2.5% per year, after ten years it will be 25.8%, according to the JCT. There is plenty of precedent for a projection such as that.
    The great thing about economics, even for real economists, is that if you give 10 economists the exact same parameters to work within, they will come up with 10 different predictions.

    Let's look at history for a reality check. The tortured process of tax cuts today is not much different than that process under Bush in the 2001/2003 tax cuts. Some differences in targeting, but similar.

    Under Bush, the second round of Tax Cuts took effect in 2003.

    Federal Tax Receipts rose from the level of $1991.1 Billion in 2001 to $2406.9 in 2006. Similar levels of revenue occurred in 2006, 2007 and 2008. 2007 was the record peak until it was beaten in 2013. The Financial collapse caused a cratering to occur in 2009 and recovery included 2010, 11 and 12..

    ACTUAL increased tax generated by the reduced rates based on the increased GDP rose by $415.8 Billion for a single year.

    Actual GDP rose from 12.71 Trillion in 2001 to 14.72 Trillion in 2006.

    ACTUAL increased GDP that occurred after the tax cuts was $2.01 Trillion.

    The $2.01 Trillion of increased GDP, a 15.8 difference year over year, produced a Tax revenue increase of 20.8% year over year.

    So, using history, we see that an increase in revenue seems to follow a decrease in tax burden, other things being equal.

    Anecdotally, the same results followed the Reagan Tax Reform and the Kennedy Tax Reform.

    What does all this mean? Absolutely nothing! I'm just the guy on the next bar stool.

    Federal Receipt and Outlay Summary | Tax Policy Center

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_a...on_Act_of_2003
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

  3. #183
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    Re: Trump Voters: Behold your success

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    The great thing about economics, even for real economists, is that if you give 10 economists the exact same parameters to work within, they will come up with 10 different predictions.

    ...
    Not in this case:

    http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/tax-reform-2
    Tax Reform

    Question A: If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.
    Only 2% of the economists agree.

    On the Bush tax-cuts increasing revenue:

    So why did revenues increase after the 2nd round of Bush tax cuts? Data from the Congressional Budget Office show that nothing special happened either to payroll taxes, which are proportional to wages, or to withheld income taxes, which reflect normal wages and salaries. Instead, the revenue surge came from two places, profits taxes and “nonwithheld” income taxes.

    Profit taxes surged partly because profits themselves surged -- this has been an economic recovery in which real wages for most workers have actually gone down, so that profits have gathered the lion’s share of the gains - but also because a temporary tax break instituted in 2002 expired.

    Politifacts weighs in too:

    GOP strategist Christie: Tax revenues rose after Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003



    As I wrote in this post (Republicans unveil tax plan, call for doubling deduction and cutting rates), "from 2000-2006, real rev/capita dropped by over 20%. There is no explanation besides the effect of Bush's tax-cuts to explain that drop. Then, revenue began to increase but never attained the level reached in 2000 -- even though GDP was larger."
    Last edited by MTAtech; 12-10-17 at 11:58 AM.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

  4. #184
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    Re: Trump Voters: Behold your success

    Quote Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
    Not in this case:

    http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/tax-reform-2
    Only 2% of the economists agree.

    On the Bush tax-cuts increasing revenue:

    So why did revenues increase after the 2nd round of Bush tax cuts? Data from the Congressional Budget Office show that nothing special happened either to payroll taxes, which are proportional to wages, or to withheld income taxes, which reflect normal wages and salaries. Instead, the revenue surge came from two places, profits taxes and “nonwithheld” income taxes.

    Profit taxes surged partly because profits themselves surged -- this has been an economic recovery in which real wages for most workers have actually gone down, so that profits have gathered the lion’s share of the gains - but also because a temporary tax break instituted in 2002 expired.

    Politifacts weighs in too:

    GOP strategist Christie: Tax revenues rose after Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003



    As I wrote in this post (Republicans unveil tax plan, call for doubling deduction and cutting rates), "from 2000-2006, real rev/capita dropped by over 20%. There is no explanation besides the effect of Bush's tax-cuts to explain that drop. Then, revenue began to increase but never attained the level reached in 2000 -- even though GDP was larger."
    I LOVE it.

    Tax revenues in the real world stated with real numbers in actual revenues rise by more than 400 Billion dollars and Politifact says they diid not rise.

    This is not a refutation of the increase. It is a refutation of the reliability of Politifact.

    I've said it before: C'mon, man!

    Tax revenue in 2000 was $2025.2 Billion.

    That was exceeded by tax revue in 2005, 06, 07 and 08.

    That last little tag in your post is not true.

    Federal Receipt and Outlay Summary | Tax Policy Center
    Last edited by code1211; 12-10-17 at 12:07 PM.
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

  5. #185
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    Re: Trump Voters: Behold your success

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    I LOVE it.

    Tax revenues in the real world stated with real numbers in actual revenues rise by more than 400 Billion dollars and Politifact says they diid not rise.

    This is not a refutation of the increase. It is a refutation of the reliability of Politifact.

    I've said it before: C'mon, man!

    Tax revenue in 2000 was $2025.2 Billion.

    That was exceeded by tax revue in 2005, 06, 07 and 08.

    That last little tag in your post is not true.

    Federal Receipt and Outlay Summary | Tax Policy Center
    Please don't pretend to be having a serious discussion. When discussing whether action "A" had an effect upon event "X", one always has to factor out other factors that also can affect event "X." When discussing revenue, inflation and population growth, which tend to increase revenue regardless of tax policy, must be factored out. When that is done, there was no increase in revenue under Bush. Want to see it visually? This graph (2009 dollars per capita) factors out inflation and population growth. Notice the huge increase in revenue? Me neither.

    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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    Re: Trump Voters: Behold your success

    Quote Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
    Please don't pretend to be having a serious discussion. When discussing whether action "A" had an effect upon event "X", one always has to factor out other factors that also can affect event "X." When discussing revenue, inflation and population growth, which tend to increase revenue regardless of tax policy, must be factored out. When that is done, there was no increase in revenue under Bush. Want to see it visually? This graph (2009 dollars per capita) factors out inflation and population growth. Notice the huge increase in revenue? Me neither.

    So, you are suggesting that we dispose of the real world numbers,

    impose artificial adjustments

    and massage the actuality out of the results until they support the alternate conclusion that you conjure?

    Alrighty then!

    I prefer reality.
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

  7. #187
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    Re: Trump Voters: Behold your success

    Quote Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
    Please don't pretend to be having a serious discussion. When discussing whether action "A" had an effect upon event "X", one always has to factor out other factors that also can affect event "X." When discussing revenue, inflation and population growth, which tend to increase revenue regardless of tax policy, must be factored out. When that is done, there was no increase in revenue under Bush. Want to see it visually? This graph (2009 dollars per capita) factors out inflation and population growth. Notice the huge increase in revenue? Me neither.

    What is the source of your graph?
    "It's always reassuring to find you've made the right enemies." -- William J. Donovan

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    Re: Trump Voters: Behold your success

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    What is the source of your graph?
    It's noted in the lower right-hand corner, usgovernmentrevenue.com.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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