• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

When the U.S. enters a Recession will Trump be held responsible?

C

CriticalThought

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 11, 2009
Messages
19,657
Reaction score
8,454
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian
Every tweet he makes on it, Trump claims full responsibility for the state of the current economy. His supporters also push the same line incessantly that Trump is the reason for the current economy. Now we are entering less than 4% unemployment, and if historical trends hold true, that means we are likely facing a Recession. Will Trump be at all responsible or will it be Hillary, Obama, and the Democrats?
 
CriticalThought said:
Every tweet he makes on it, Trump claims full responsibility for the state of the current economy. His supporters also push the same line incessantly that Trump is the reason for the current economy. Now we are entering less than 4% unemployment, and if historical trends hold true, that means we are likely facing a Recession. Will Trump be at all responsible or will it be Hillary, Obama, and the Democrats?
Click to expand...

That is quite true. We have been out of recession for a lengthy period by recent ie post war experience. But it has been atypical as the result of a set of asset bubbles and driven by a variety liquidity instruments massively deployed and excessive fiscal spending on credit. The present asset price levels are disturbing. What could save the US economy for a while is that it has chugged along well enough to pull over economies out of recessions. This is now supporting the US.
 
CriticalThought said:
Every tweet he makes on it, Trump claims full responsibility for the state of the current economy. His supporters also push the same line incessantly that Trump is the reason for the current economy. Now we are entering less than 4% unemployment, and if historical trends hold true, that means we are likely facing a Recession. Will Trump be at all responsible or will it be Hillary, Obama, and the Democrats?
Click to expand...

We are overdue for a recession.

And yeah, when it happens they will blame the Clintons. Either one, doesn't matter.
 
CriticalThought said:
less than 4% unemployment, and if historical trends hold true, that means we are likely facing a Recession.
Click to expand...

This is nonsense. You're inferring causality from correlation, and correlation which doesn't even hold particularly true:

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1950 6.5 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3
1951 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1
1952 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7
1953 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.5
1954 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.0
1955 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2
1956 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.2
1957 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2
1958 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.2 6.2
1959 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.3
1960 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.6
1961 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.1 6.0
1962 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.5
1963 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.5
1964 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.0
1965 4.9 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0
1966 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.8
1967 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8
1968 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
1969 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5
1970 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.1
1971 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0
1972 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.2
1973 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.9
1974 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.6 7.2
1975 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2
1976 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8
1977 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 7.2 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.4
1978 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.2 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.0
1979 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0
1980 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.9 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2
1981 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5
1982 8.6 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.8
1983 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.3
1984 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3
1985 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0
1986 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.6
1987 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.7
1988 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3
1989 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4
1990 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.3
1991 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.3
1992 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.4
1993 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5
1994 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5
1995 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6
1996 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4
1997 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7
1998 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4
1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4
2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0
2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9
2010 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.8 9.3
2011 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5
2012 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.9
2013 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7
2014 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6
2015 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
2016 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.7
2017 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1
 
CriticalThought said:
Every tweet he makes on it, Trump claims full responsibility for the state of the current economy. His supporters also push the same line incessantly that Trump is the reason for the current economy. Now we are entering less than 4% unemployment, and if historical trends hold true, that means we are likely facing a Recession. Will Trump be at all responsible or will it be Hillary, Obama, and the Democrats?
Click to expand...

Are you kidding? He'll immediately tweet that it's because the Dems refuse to work with him on the budget, that they already sent all the jobs overseas, that Obama destroyed the strong economy he inherited from Bush because he was too busy golfing, and that Hillary was never investigated about her e-mails.

That's the thing about aggressive narcissists - nothing bad is ever - EVER - their fault. You could hook him up to a lie detector machine, and if I were a betting man, I'd bet a month's pay that he'd pass, that no matter how ridiculously false his answers are, all that matters to him is that whatever he says must be true at the time that he says it.

I'm not kidding. Look at this article from The Guardian about Trump's mentor, Norman Vincent Peale:

Like Trump, Peale showers his audience in anecdotes, often casting himself as the hero. We hear about a woman who was able to bring back her husband by visualising him at home; a recovering alcoholic who Peale telepathically saves from a relapse; and a man who fixes his toe by asking the Lord to send it “right back to the plant”. For Peale, these stories illustrate a profound truth, first expressed by the psychiatrist Karl Menninger – “attitudes are more important than facts”. This insight, Peale continues, “is worth repeating until its truth grips you”.

So when Trump denies climate change and refers to terrorist attacks that never took place and claims false murder rates, he isn’t really lying. He is just expressing an “attitude”, a “picture”, as it appears in his head, at that particular time, possibly after watching Fox News, Breitbart or Infowars.

That's why Trump would pass a lie detector test when he claims that his inauguration crowd was the largest ever - never mind the photographic evidence that shows otherwise.
 
CriticalThought said:
Every tweet he makes on it, Trump claims full responsibility for the state of the current economy. His supporters also push the same line incessantly that Trump is the reason for the current economy. Now we are entering less than 4% unemployment, and if historical trends hold true, that means we are likely facing a Recession. Will Trump be at all responsible or will it be Hillary, Obama, and the Democrats?
Click to expand...
There is no way to know who will be actually responsible for a hypothetical recession. It actually has to happen, and you actually have to figure out the causes first....

That said: We can say with confidence that if there is a recession on his watch, Trump will blame anyone and everyone except himself.
 
chuckiechan said:
We may have a pullback, but not a recession, and certainly not an Obama economic “death march” of 2%.
Click to expand...

The 'death' was when the economy **** the bed under Bush. Thanks to Obama we climbed out of yet another Republican abyss that we always seem to have under Republicans Admins.. The 4% unemployment and 14,000 gain of the DOW under Obama was a good thing.

Anyway we've overdue for another recession. When it happens Trump will blame everyone else but him and you guys will be hoping for that 2% again.
 
Harshaw said:
This is nonsense. You're inferring causality from correlation, and correlation which doesn't even hold particularly true:

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
19506.56.46.35.85.55.45.04.54.44.24.24.3
19513.73.43.43.13.03.23.13.13.33.53.53.1
19523.23.12.92.93.03.03.23.43.13.02.82.7
19532.92.62.62.72.52.52.62.72.93.13.54.5
19544.95.25.75.95.95.65.86.06.15.75.35.0
19554.94.74.64.74.34.24.04.24.14.34.24.2
19564.03.94.24.04.34.34.44.13.93.94.34.2
19574.23.93.73.94.14.34.24.14.44.55.15.2
19585.86.46.77.47.47.37.57.47.16.76.26.2
19596.05.95.65.25.15.05.15.25.55.75.85.3
19605.24.85.45.25.15.45.55.65.56.16.16.6
19616.66.96.97.07.16.97.06.66.76.56.16.0
19625.85.55.65.65.55.55.45.75.65.45.75.5
19635.75.95.75.75.95.65.65.45.55.55.75.5
19645.65.45.45.35.15.24.95.05.15.14.85.0
19654.95.14.74.84.64.64.44.44.34.24.14.0
19664.03.83.83.83.93.83.83.83.73.73.63.8
19673.93.83.83.83.83.93.83.83.84.03.93.8
19683.73.83.73.53.53.73.73.53.43.43.43.4
19693.43.43.43.43.43.53.53.53.73.73.53.5
19703.94.24.44.64.84.95.05.15.45.55.96.1
19715.95.96.05.95.95.96.06.16.05.86.06.0
19725.85.75.85.75.75.75.65.65.55.65.35.2
19734.95.04.95.04.94.94.84.84.84.64.84.9
19745.15.25.15.15.15.45.55.55.96.06.67.2
19758.18.18.68.89.08.88.68.48.48.48.38.2
19767.97.77.67.77.47.67.87.87.67.77.87.8
19777.57.67.47.27.07.26.97.06.86.86.86.4
19786.46.36.36.16.05.96.25.96.05.85.96.0
19795.95.95.85.85.65.75.76.05.96.05.96.0
19806.36.36.36.97.57.67.87.77.57.57.57.2
19817.57.47.47.27.57.57.27.47.67.98.38.5
19828.68.99.09.39.49.69.89.810.110.410.810.8
198310.410.410.310.210.110.19.49.59.28.88.58.3
19848.07.87.87.77.47.27.57.57.37.47.27.3
19857.37.27.27.37.27.47.47.17.17.17.07.0
19866.77.27.27.17.27.27.06.97.07.06.96.6
19876.66.66.66.36.36.26.16.05.96.05.85.7
19885.75.75.75.45.65.45.45.65.45.45.35.3
19895.45.25.05.25.25.35.25.25.35.35.45.4
19905.45.35.25.45.45.25.55.75.95.96.26.3
19916.46.66.86.76.96.96.86.96.97.07.07.3
19927.37.47.47.47.67.87.77.67.67.37.47.4
19937.37.17.07.17.17.06.96.86.76.86.66.5
19946.66.66.56.46.16.16.16.05.95.85.65.5
19955.65.45.45.85.65.65.75.75.65.55.65.6
19965.65.55.55.65.65.35.55.15.25.25.45.4
19975.35.25.25.14.95.04.94.84.94.74.64.7
19984.64.64.74.34.44.54.54.54.64.54.44.4
19994.34.44.24.34.24.34.34.24.24.14.14.0
20004.04.14.03.84.04.04.04.13.93.93.93.9
20014.24.24.34.44.34.54.64.95.05.35.55.7
20025.75.75.75.95.85.85.85.75.75.75.96.0
20035.85.95.96.06.16.36.26.16.16.05.85.7
20045.75.65.85.65.65.65.55.45.45.55.45.4
20055.35.45.25.25.15.05.04.95.05.05.04.9
20064.74.84.74.74.64.64.74.74.54.44.54.4
20074.64.54.44.54.44.64.74.64.74.74.75.0
20085.04.95.15.05.45.65.86.16.16.56.87.3
20097.88.38.79.09.49.59.59.69.810.09.99.9
20109.89.89.99.99.69.49.49.59.59.49.89.3
20119.19.09.09.19.09.19.09.09.08.88.68.5
20128.38.38.28.28.28.28.28.17.87.87.77.9
20138.07.77.57.67.57.57.37.37.27.26.96.7
20146.66.76.76.26.36.16.26.25.95.75.85.6
20155.75.55.45.45.55.35.25.15.05.05.05.0
20164.94.95.05.04.74.94.94.94.94.84.64.7
20174.84.74.54.44.34.44.34.44.24.1
Click to expand...

Ironically, the numbers you copy+pasted are nonsense.

We generally have high unemployment during times of recession. The times of low unemployment are generally considered the opposite swing of the pendulum. That's the basis that you're attacking, but you seem confused over how it takes shape.
 
SenorXm/Sirius said:
The 'death' was when the economy **** the bed under Bush. Thanks to Obama we climbed out of yet another Republican abyss that we always seem to have under Republicans Admins.. The 4% unemployment and 14,000 gain of the DOW under Obama was a good thing.

Anyway we've overdue for another recession. When it happens Trump will blame everyone else but him and you guys will be hoping for that 2% again.
Click to expand...

Obama had a choice: prioritize fixing the economy, or changing the nations demographic through illegal and illegal immigration. Obama chose to concentrate on demographic change, and strangling businesses with excessive regulations.
 
chuckiechan said:
Obama had a choice: prioritize fixing the economy, or changing the nations demographic through illegal and illegal immigration. Obama chose to concentrate on demographic change, and strangling businesses with excessive regulations.
Click to expand...

Yeah. Bull. GOP presidents have historically been more illegal immigrants friendly.

But anyway we're talking about the economy. And the GOP Admins have bad reputation on that too.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom