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GOP has lost over half its voters to Trump

Huffpo did an interesting poll with Trump voters.

Trump Voters Recognize GOP Lawmakers Are Backing Away From Him | HuffPost



That is astonishing. It also means moderate GOP lawmakers have lost their party and have yet to realize it. We are witnessing a change not witnessed since Goldwater that is redefining the Republican party from small government, compassionate conservatism to an authoritarian nationalist movement. Trump's brand is literally engulfing the GOP's brand and that spells the end of moderate political leaders like McCain, Collins, and Graham in the next election cycles. On the national stage Trump may be losing but within the GOP he is the decided victor.

Interesting stats on Trump's approval rating comparing end of January through 22 August. Democrats end of January, approve 8%, today 11%. Independents end of January 48% approve, today 35%. Republicans, end of January 90%, today 75%. The above states have an margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. So basically the Democratic numbers are unchanged, but the rest has moved quite a lot since the end of January. This is nationwide.

Now we always knew the never-Trump or anti-Trump Republicans numbered between 15-20%, but even them would vote for Trump vs. Clinton. Hence what I think is the high of 90% approval of Trump at the end of January was due more to the dislike of Clinton than the approval of Trump. Now that 75% has been pretty steady within the 3 points of the MOE since April.

It also should be a surprise most Republicans would side with Trump against congress, Trump is the figurehead of the GOP. Not Ryan or McConnell. Think about it, if Obama and Pelosi had a mean spirited spat, most Democrats would have sided with Obama regardless of what the spat was over.

Now Trump nationally, 40% of all Americans view him favorably, 80% of Republicans view him favorably
Ryan nationally 26%, Republicans 44%
McConnell nationally 19%, Republicans 28%
Republican congressional party nationally 23%, Republicans 51%

That is a onesided view just comparing Republicans. the nationally view of Democrats are as followed.
Democratic congressional party nationally 36%
Pelosi nationally 30%
Schumer nationally 28%

So neither congressional party or congressional leaders are liked, it is just a case which are hated more by the general public.

regardless, what all this feuding between Trump and the GOP congress portends is huge gains for the Democrats next year.
 
And I shake my head reading this..



Wait what.. standing up to traitors and white nationalists is now "meaningless"? The fact that a portion of the American right still supports and idolizes traitors to the Republic is now meaningless? That a shockingly large portion of the right supports Nazis is meaningless?



yea lets totally forget that the election was heavily influenced by a foreign power... Hilary was far from perfect, but compared to Trump she was way better and less corrupt.



Wait what? It is the GOP that promotes identity politics by going after minorities. Transgender ban, targeting minorities in voter purges and disenfranchises, going after minority groups fighting white privilege.. hell denying there is white privilege at all. The list of identity politics by the GOP is huge and has been going on for decades... Trump with his neo nazi base and friends in government has just made it worse.



The only difference between GOP establishment policy and Trumps so called populist agenda, is that in Trumps version it is him and his friends that benefit and not the GOP establishment backers. This is another fase in the GOP civil war that has been going on since the early Clinton years.

The 2018 election will have a backlash, but there is still a while to the election so things can change... and Trump can do more stupid things. Hell who says that there will be a 2018 election since Trump clearly does not give a **** about the rule of law anymore. For all we know, the Gilead could be right around the corner.

Pete,

I think that is the stupidest, most insignificant post I have ever read. You just broke the "Hack-O-Meter."
 
Kinda, sorta. I agree with much of the above but you didn't include a large segment of voters who do not support either ruling party. I am one. I did not and cannot support Republicans or Democrats. I damn sure don't support Donald Trump.

Trump is a grenade in a dumpster. Lots of noise and flash and he's getting a lot of attention but he's doing little more than rearranging garbage.

A large portion of Trump's appointees are the big money and privileged "elites" he railed on about during his campaign. Many Independents, moderate Republicans, and non-neoliberal Democrats don't and won't cotton to Trump. Trump has alienated himself from a growing portion of the American public. He is not the answer for most Americans.


You are right he is NOT the answer for most Americans, he's a double pumper middle finger to the establishment political class. And as you put it a grenade in THIER garbage dumpster.
 
Interesting stats on Trump's approval rating comparing end of January through 22 August. Democrats end of January, approve 8%, today 11%. Independents end of January 48% approve, today 35%. Republicans, end of January 90%, today 75%. The above states have an margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. So basically the Democratic numbers are unchanged, but the rest has moved quite a lot since the end of January. This is nationwide.

Now we always knew the never-Trump or anti-Trump Republicans numbered between 15-20%, but even them would vote for Trump vs. Clinton. Hence what I think is the high of 90% approval of Trump at the end of January was due more to the dislike of Clinton than the approval of Trump. Now that 75% has been pretty steady within the 3 points of the MOE since April.

It also should be a surprise most Republicans would side with Trump against congress, Trump is the figurehead of the GOP. Not Ryan or McConnell. Think about it, if Obama and Pelosi had a mean spirited spat, most Democrats would have sided with Obama regardless of what the spat was over.

Now Trump nationally, 40% of all Americans view him favorably, 80% of Republicans view him favorably
Ryan nationally 26%, Republicans 44%
McConnell nationally 19%, Republicans 28%
Republican congressional party nationally 23%, Republicans 51%

That is a onesided view just comparing Republicans. the nationally view of Democrats are as followed.
Democratic congressional party nationally 36%
Pelosi nationally 30%
Schumer nationally 28%

So neither congressional party or congressional leaders are liked, it is just a case which are hated more by the general public.

regardless, what all this feuding between Trump and the GOP congress portends is huge gains for the Democrats next year.

I must disagree with your last statement. The process of "party-reunification" doesn't happen overnight. In the upcoming mid-terms, many "D" seats are vulnerable. A few RINOS will be primaried. Some will lose to real Republicans who will advance the Trump agenda. Trump will campaign non-stop for "his" favorites because he must eliminate as many obstructionists as possible. WE THE PEOPLE know that Trump is the President of the people and not the president of the politicians. WE are sick and ****ing tired of scumsack, lying politicians.

The democrat party has NOTHING to offer except the likes of Antifa, Soros, obstructionism, and failed policies. They offer NO hope for the future. There is no reason to vote for a democrat, unless, of course, you are a party hack or a communist.

Trump knows how to build. When building, you never start with the roof. These are the months for building the foundation. All the drama the communistic Press is constantly trying to drum up is nothing more than Kabuki Theater to keep the useful idiots occupied. Real Americans know what is happening. Americanism and Nationalistic Americanism will grow stronger and stronger. The left will fail, and the sun will come out tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar......

I pity the fool that bets against America.
 
I must disagree with your last statement. The process of "party-reunification" doesn't happen overnight. In the upcoming mid-terms, many "D" seats are vulnerable. A few RINOS will be primaried. Some will lose to real Republicans who will advance the Trump agenda. Trump will campaign non-stop for "his" favorites because he must eliminate as many obstructionists as possible. WE THE PEOPLE know that Trump is the President of the people and not the president of the politicians. WE are sick and ****ing tired of scumsack, lying politicians.

The democrat party has NOTHING to offer except the likes of Antifa, Soros, obstructionism, and failed policies. They offer NO hope for the future. There is no reason to vote for a democrat, unless, of course, you are a party hack or a communist.

Trump knows how to build. When building, you never start with the roof. These are the months for building the foundation. All the drama the communistic Press is constantly trying to drum up is nothing more than Kabuki Theater to keep the useful idiots occupied. Real Americans know what is happening. Americanism and Nationalistic Americanism will grow stronger and stronger. The left will fail, and the sun will come out tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar......

I pity the fool that bets against America.

Trump isn't America. He is one of 320 million who happens to be president. I don't think Trump knows how to unite. He sure knows how to create feuds, most needlessly. I'm more of a numbers guy than an ideological one. I take a look at the house and I see 30 Republican seats at risk or that could change to 9 for the Democrats. The key word is could. Outside of those 39 seats, the rest at this time looks fairly safe. In the senate, I see 25 Democrat's up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans. But I see really only 2 Democratic seats at risk today, Missouri and Indiana while the GOP also has two at risk seats, Nevada and Arizona. Maintaining the status quo would be a huge victory for the Democrats concerning the numbers 25-8.

I also see the favorability of the two congressional parties with the Democrats being seen more favorable by ten points than the Republicans. I see Trump at a 38% approval and down to 34% among independents. The first mid term is usually a referendum on the president. I see in the generic congressional polls, the Democrats with an 8 point lead. I also see more people identifying themselves with the Democrats than the Republican Party. I see Trump creating turmoil within the Republican Party party and fighting his own congressional party.

I also know that history shows when an incumbent is primariared out, the other party usually wins the seat. All of the above points to a huge Democratic year next year. That is if the trend continues. It way too early to say that it will. But as of today, the numbers are all on the Democratic side.

One last thing, in 2016 there was Hillary Clinton to unite the GOP behind Trump. A lot of Republicans didn't like Trump, but hated Clinton and supported Trump. Hillary Clinton won't be around for the 2018 midterms to even out the dislike of one each, Donald J. Trump.
 
Let me put this in perspective for you -

1. 2004 we had GWB who was a great guy but didn't stand up for himself or his policies worth a damn. He let the Democrats and Republican doves run him over like he wasn't there. Conservatives got pissed.
2. 2008 McCain decided to run an anti-Bush campaign which was about as "Mavericky" as Gene Autry. The Conservatives got pissed.
3. 2012 after handing the GOP both houses due to outrage over the ACA the GOP decides that Romney will get the call. Romney couldn't drum up enough support to beat McCain 4 years prior and managed to make milquetoast look badass.
4. 2016 Having given up on the GOP and facing the prospect of a Clinton presidency the Conservatives decided that it was obviously a war between them and the political class that had been ****ing them for the past dozen years. They had a choice between Ted Cruz or TV/Real Estate Big Mouth Boy. Cruz hung in there but Trump was the political outsider and ended up with the nod (I still think Hillary had something to do with that but there were a bunch of otherwise sane people I know that voted for him in the primary). At that point it was Trump or hand over the reins to a globalist with no respect for the Constitution. The only decision on Nov 8th was whether to show up and vote or not. Folks showed up.

Here's some more perspective for you, since Trump got elected it's been a non-stop **** you to establishment politicians and the establishment press that fluffs them. It's been a full blown tantrum by the political class who have suddenly discovered that half the country doesn't give a damn about their dog an pony show. It's been another confirmation every day for those of us on the right that we were right about the left wing abuses and lies designed to maintain control of an oppressed citizenry. Come next year, it's going to be another confirmation as Democrats and GOP establishment, believing that this was all a bad dream, are once more shown just how wrong they are about Americans.

And let me put your pretentious drivel in perspective...

Three million more Americans voted for one of the worst Democratic presidential nominees in history (a woman who represented the establishment more so than any other candidate from either party)... than for your "none-of-the-above" con man.

So ease up on the prognostications, Nostradamus.
 
Trump isn't America. He is one of 320 million who happens to be president. I don't think Trump knows how to unite. He sure knows how to create feuds, most needlessly. I'm more of a numbers guy than an ideological one. I take a look at the house and I see 30 Republican seats at risk or that could change to 9 for the Democrats. The key word is could. Outside of those 39 seats, the rest at this time looks fairly safe. In the senate, I see 25 Democrat's up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans. But I see really only 2 Democratic seats at risk today, Missouri and Indiana while the GOP also has two at risk seats, Nevada and Arizona. Maintaining the status quo would be a huge victory for the Democrats concerning the numbers 25-8.

I also see the favorability of the two congressional parties with the Democrats being seen more favorable by ten points than the Republicans. I see Trump at a 38% approval and down to 34% among independents. The first mid term is usually a referendum on the president. I see in the generic congressional polls, the Democrats with an 8 point lead. I also see more people identifying themselves with the Democrats than the Republican Party. I see Trump creating turmoil within the Republican Party party and fighting his own congressional party.

I also know that history shows when an incumbent is primariared out, the other party usually wins the seat. All of the above points to a huge Democratic year next year. That is if the trend continues. It way too early to say that it will. But as of today, the numbers are all on the Democratic side.

One last thing, in 2016 there was Hillary Clinton to unite the GOP behind Trump. A lot of Republicans didn't like Trump, but hated Clinton and supported Trump. Hillary Clinton won't be around for the 2018 midterms to even out the dislike of one each, Donald J. Trump.

Excellent post. I still disagree.

Rallies, like the one in Phoenix, prove my point. Polls are useless and meaningless. WE THE PEOPLE are speaking. President Trump is our president and our leader. The left has no leadership, no policies, and no hope for young American families. Most people understand that.
 
Huffpo did an interesting poll with Trump voters.

Trump Voters Recognize GOP Lawmakers Are Backing Away From Him | HuffPost



That is astonishing. It also means moderate GOP lawmakers have lost their party and have yet to realize it. We are witnessing a change not witnessed since Goldwater that is redefining the Republican party from small government, compassionate conservatism to an authoritarian nationalist movement. Trump's brand is literally engulfing the GOP's brand and that spells the end of moderate political leaders like McCain, Collins, and Graham in the next election cycles. On the national stage Trump may be losing but within the GOP he is the decided victor.

Collins is the only one of those three that is a moderate. The rest have consistent conservative voting records. You could count on one hand the number of true moderate Republicans in Washington anymore. The others range from conservative to extremely conservative.
 
I believe Trump has alot of support from previously blue collar democrat voters.

They are not going to have an identitywith the GOP

Precisely true. Look at some of the states where Trump won. Clinton was expected to win PA, MI, and WI because they are all traditionally democrat and blue-collar. After many years of economic despair and jobs being lost, many of the blue-collar democrats in these states became independents and wanted change so they voted for Trump. I don't really see how Trump can help that region but we shall see.
 
Excellent post. I still disagree.

Rallies, like the one in Phoenix, prove my point. Polls are useless and meaningless. WE THE PEOPLE are speaking. President Trump is our president and our leader. The left has no leadership, no policies, and no hope for young American families. Most people understand that.

Polls are but a tool. Polls do give you an idea of where things, candidates, elections maybe stand on the day they were taken. Also most polls have a margin of error of 3-5 points depending on the polls. One poll basically means nothing. A bunch of polls on the same subject over a week or two give you an rough idea. But many, many polls taken over a long period of time provide a trend. It's the trend that provides you with a pretty good idea what the country is thinking or the way the country is leaning.

Rallies, I was a big Goldwater backer back in 1964 and he had excellent and enthusiastic rallies. Yet lost 61-39. What I have found is rallies give you a darn good idea of the enthusiasm of a candidates supporters. Trump were very enthusiastic, Clinton's ho hum. Mundane might be a better word. Clinton provided little to no energy, Trump sure did. There were a whole lot less avid Trump supporters than Clinton supporters, but in the end it was enthusiasm that won out.

Voter turnout is always the key. The Democrats have a larger base than the Republicans. So winning independents is very important to the GOP even if they average a higher percentage turnout than the Democrats. Trump won independents 46-42 over Clinton with 12% voting third party, still lost the popular vote by 2 points. Republican congressional candidates won the independent vote 51-47 and the over all congressional vote last year 49-48 over the Democrats, still they lost 6 seats. So I would keep an eye on how independents view both President Trump and the congressional parties along with the generic congressional vote.
 
It's not like the democratic party has anything to offer them.
 
Polls are but a tool. Polls do give you an idea of where things, candidates, elections maybe stand on the day they were taken. Also most polls have a margin of error of 3-5 points depending on the polls. One poll basically means nothing. A bunch of polls on the same subject over a week or two give you an rough idea. But many, many polls taken over a long period of time provide a trend. It's the trend that provides you with a pretty good idea what the country is thinking or the way the country is leaning.

Rallies, I was a big Goldwater backer back in 1964 and he had excellent and enthusiastic rallies. Yet lost 61-39. What I have found is rallies give you a darn good idea of the enthusiasm of a candidates supporters. Trump were very enthusiastic, Clinton's ho hum. Mundane might be a better word. Clinton provided little to no energy, Trump sure did. There were a whole lot less avid Trump supporters than Clinton supporters, but in the end it was enthusiasm that won out.

Voter turnout is always the key. The Democrats have a larger base than the Republicans. So winning independents is very important to the GOP even if they average a higher percentage turnout than the Democrats. Trump won independents 46-42 over Clinton with 12% voting third party, still lost the popular vote by 2 points. Republican congressional candidates won the independent vote 51-47 and the over all congressional vote last year 49-48 over the Democrats, still they lost 6 seats. So I would keep an eye on how independents view both President Trump and the congressional parties along with the generic congressional vote.

Another excellent post!

Populism is powerful. Looking back at our POPULAR presidents, how many failed as incumbents?
 
Another excellent post!

Populism is powerful. Looking back at our POPULAR presidents, how many failed as incumbents?

You mean re-election. G.H.W Bush reached a high of 91% back in March of 1991 after Desert Storm. He failed to win re-election, but in November of 1992 Bush was down to 34%. So one can't call Bush popular at the time he sought re-election. Jimmy Carter's high was 72% in March of 1977, just beginning his presidency. He lost his bit for re-election, his November of 1980 approval rating was 31%. Certainly not popular at the time he also sought Re-election.

Others who won re-election, Obama 52% in November of 2012. G.W. Bush 55% in November of 2004, Bill Clinton 58% in November of of 1996, Ronald Reagan 61% in November of 1984. Nixon 62% in November of 1972 and so on. A pattern here, any president with an approval rating of above 50% won re-election, any president with an approval rating of below 50% lost his bid for re-election. I didn't include Ford as he was appointed VP by congress and then became president when Nixon resigned. Ford approval rating was 47% when he lost a very close election to Jimmy Carter in 1976.
 
You mean re-election. G.H.W Bush reached a high of 91% back in March of 1991 after Desert Storm. He failed to win re-election, but in November of 1992 Bush was down to 34%. So one can't call Bush popular at the time he sought re-election. Jimmy Carter's high was 72% in March of 1977, just beginning his presidency. He lost his bit for re-election, his November of 1980 approval rating was 31%. Certainly not popular at the time he also sought Re-election.

Others who won re-election, Obama 52% in November of 2012. G.W. Bush 55% in November of 2004, Bill Clinton 58% in November of of 1996, Ronald Reagan 61% in November of 1984. Nixon 62% in November of 1972 and so on. A pattern here, any president with an approval rating of above 50% won re-election, any president with an approval rating of below 50% lost his bid for re-election. I didn't include Ford as he was appointed VP by congress and then became president when Nixon resigned. Ford approval rating was 47% when he lost a very close election to Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Hard to predict the future but I would think that, given your numbers, Trump may lose to a primary challenger.
 
Hard to predict the future but I would think that, given your numbers, Trump may lose to a primary challenger.

Very hard to near impossible to predict the future, at least very far into the future. One doesn't know or can't take into consideration any unforeseen event or happening. Such of 9-11, the Iranian Hostage crisis, etc. Also a booming economy at the time an election approaches almost always means incumbents win big time. A poor or bad economy always gives the party out of power the advantage. When talking 2020, it is just 99.9% guesses at this time.

I think we have better odds predicting the midterms. Not so much on number, polls from all sorts of categories as they stand today, but the trends in those numbers from ten to fifteen categories beginning at the end of January to today. Yet as I stated, all it takes is one major unforeseen event to set that trend and numbers on their ear. Then if the economy begins to boom, forget everything that has happened to date.

When I say I think such and such will happen in the midterm elections of next year, I always unless I forget, add the caveat, "If the present trends continue."
 
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