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Are Democrats Bringing on Their Own Defeat in 2018?

Greetings, Mr. Invisible. :2wave:

Well, this is a very interesting lawsuit - "interesting" primarily only as it applies to Bernie Sanders' voters!

1. Point #3 states that the Party has the freedom to determine its nominees by "internal rule," not voter interest." Since when?

2. Point #4 argues that "impartial" cannot be defined! Since when?

3. Point #6 states that the Party is not obligated to conduct the Primary fairly! Huh? Since when?

If I were the Judge hearing this case, I believe I would have said something along the lines of " C'mon guys, I may have been born yesterday, but I did live all day long!"

I'll admit that I don't understand the argument the defendants are using, but it sure sounds like they're cutting their own throats by using the language they have chosen as their argument to dismiss the lawsuit. Why bother having a Primary in the first place? :thumbdown:

The bolded is exactly what a friend of mine asked when I posted a different article talking about this. If the DNC can decide who they want the nominee to be, there needn't be elections at all.
 
The bolded is exactly what a friend of mine asked when I posted a different article talking about this. If the DNC can decide who they want the nominee to be, there needn't be elections at all.

:agree:

Off topic a little bit, but how are you doing?
 
:agree:

Off topic a little bit, but how are you doing?

Doing alright. I've got three weeks left in AIT, then I head home and start the process of going active duty.

How've you been?
 
Amid all the negative publicity about DJT's first 100 days, it may be the Dems who have missed the mark badly, and are setting themselves up for a devastating drubbing in 2018. One does not need to be a DJT fan (I am not.) to see the danger for Dems in their lurch to the left and their undisguised contempt for people who used to be core Dem voters.



By Marc A. ThiessenMay 1 at 12:12 PM

Let’s face it: The past 100 days have been a disaster . . . for Democrats.
While much ink has been spilled in the past week assessing President Trump’s first 100 days in office, the Democrats’ abysmal performance has largely escaped scrutiny. So let’s review their record.
The Democrats spent much of Trump’s first months in office pushing their unfounded narrative of Trump’s alleged collusion with Vladimir Putin. But that narrative went up in smoke when Trump launched missile strikes against Putin’s Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad. Trump not only hit the air base from which Assad allegedly had launched his chemical weapons attack but also dropped the “mother of all bombs” on the Democrats’ efforts to paint him as a Putin puppet. His Syrian strikes were followed by U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley’s blistering speech before the U.N. Security Council laying the blame on Russia for failing to stop Syria’s use of chemical weapons and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’s charge, on a recent visit to Afghanistan, that Russia is arming the Taliban. Suddenly, we’re in a new Cold War with Moscow — which pours cold water on Democrats’ case for Trump-Putin collusion. All that effort at character assassination down the drain.
But most damaging has been the Democrats’ seemingly nonstop efforts to further alienate the millions of Americans who twice voted for Barack Obama but switched to Trump last year. The president’s critics have pointed to a Post-ABC News poll, which showed that Trump had not expanded his base of support since he took office. Well, Trump did not need to expand his base. He won the election (and the poll suggested that if the election were held again today, he would not only defeat Hillary Clinton again but also win the popular vote this time).

The ones who need to expand their base are Democrats — the party that lost — and they utterly failed to so. According to the Post-ABC News poll, only 2 percent of Americans who voted for Trump regret their votes, while fully 96 percent say it was the right thing to do. In other words, after 100 days, Democrats made no inroads with these Obama-Trump voters. Quite the opposite, today just 28 percent of Americans say that the Democratic Party is in touch with the concerns of most Americans today — 10 points behind Trump. . . .

We can see this contempt every single day, with the leftist media attacking Trump at every turn, mostly pointless bull****, and sometimes even stuff they've made up themselves. A constant reminder what the left thinks of Trump supporters on a daily basis.

Yeah, talk about providing motivation for your opposition to consolidate.
 
The numbers show 5%of Republicans abandoned Trump, Romney 93% of this group to Trump's 88%. On the Democratic side, Obama 92% of Democrats to Clinton's 89%. That's only a three point drop. So more Republicans left Trump than Democrats left Clinton although the numbers are so close. But here are some groups to look at:
18-29 year olds Obama 60, Romney 37% - Clinton 55%, Trump 36% Both candidates dropped, Clinton by 5 to Trump's 1, but third party voters went from 3% to 9%. If you add up Clinton's 5 point drop and Trump's 1, that is 6 points and add the 3 points that voted third party in 2012 to the 6 point you have the 9 point total. In this age group, Obama voters went third party and not to Trump or he would have risen instead of fallen.

Whites Romney 59%, Obama 39% - Trump 57%, Clinton 37% both dropped two points, identical. Both lost voters to third party candidates.

Blacks Obama 93%, Romney 6% - Clinton 88%, Trump 8%. Clinton did lose 5 points and Trump did 2 points better than Obama. So you do have some Obama to Trump voters here. But since Clinton dropped points, there were still more Obama to third party voters than Obama to Trump.

Hispanics Obama 71%, Romney 27% - Clinton 65%, Trump 29%. Clinton dropped 6 points and Trump rose 2. What you have is 4 points of Clinton's drop is due to Obama to third party while 2 points is Obama to Trump.

Union households Obama 58%, Romney 40% - Clinton 51%, Trump 43% a 7 point drop for Clinton, Trump rose 3. But once again you have 4 points of what one can call the Obama to third party and 3 points of Obama to Trump.

Middle Class Romney 52%, Obama 46% - Trump 49%, Clinton 46%. In this group which is different from above, but still shows Clinton matching Obama while Trump lost 3 point or was 3 points lower than Romney. But there was no Romney to Clinton voters, those 3 points of voters went Romney to third party.

There's more, but where Clinton lost or dropped from Obama's totals was due to more Obama voters voting third party than Obama voters voting for Trump although some of that happened. But not enough to be hyped as some and the article were doing. What should be hyped in my opinion is the number of Obama to third party voters. Its there where Clinton lost the election and failed.

Remember Trump finished at 46% of the total vote, Romney at 47%. But for me, the biggest group that may have decided this election can't be compared to Obama or to any group in 2012. That is Sanders voters. Whereas Clinton won the over all Democratic base vote 89-8 over Trump with 3% voting third party, she won Sanders voters by only a 65-22 margin over Trump with 13% of Sanders voters voting third party. That isn't a Obama to Trump group or voters, but it is a Sanders to Trump voting block of substantial proportion. That also gets ignored.

From your friendly numbers guy.

Thanks, Pero. You should work for 538.
 
Thanks, Pero. You should work for 538.

The numbers are all there for all to see. But it is far sexier to talk about Obama to Trump voters than Obama to third party. There were according to the numbers far more of the later than the former. Although there were some of the former along with a few Romney to Clinton.

It also may be embarrassing to the Clinton camp that Obama supporters choose unknowns like Johnson and Stein over her. If Clinton supporters and Democrats emphasize Obama to Trump they can blame the Russians, Comey and other reasons than that Clinton lost except the candidate herself that they.
 
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The numbers are all there for all to see. But it is far sexier to talk about Obama to Trump voters than Obama to third party. There were according to the numbers far more of the later than the former. Although there were some of the former along with a few Romney to Clinton.

The key for me was that Obama-to-Trump mitigated Romney-to-Clinton.
 
With respect to 2018 and the current 2017 special elections in four deep red CDs that GOPs are throwing/threw tens of millions of dark money at;

I wouldn't call closing the gap by 23 points in KS-4 bringing on their own defeat in 2018. Nor would I call closing the gap by 19 points in GA-6 a defeat, where the latest poll shows Ossoff up 48-47;

With MT-at large on 5/25 and SC-5 and GA-6 on 6/20, DEMs have to compete before they win, which is hardly a defeat after the last 4 elections;

Let's see how popular GOPs are in the November elections in VA and NJ .
 
Doing alright. I've got three weeks left in AIT, then I head home and start the process of going active duty.

How've you been?

Probably like most people - trying to find the logic behind what both parties are doing! I'm beginning to think there's little or no logic involved, but that it's mostly emotions that are ruling right now! :eek: :shock:
 
We can see this contempt every single day, with the leftist media attacking Trump at every turn, mostly pointless bull****, and sometimes even stuff they've made up themselves. A constant reminder what the left thinks of Trump supporters on a daily basis.

Yeah, talk about providing motivation for your opposition to consolidate.

Greetings, Erik. :2wave:

Well said! :thumbs:
 
The key for me was that Obama-to-Trump mitigated Romney-to-Clinton.

Sure it did. For all the talk of the Never Trumpers, the numbers show they mostly voted for Trump, those that didn't went third party or stayed home. They may have been never Trumpers, but in the end they were never, never, never Clinton. The key was in almost ever category or groups of voters, Trump was within one or two points, plus or minus of Romney. Clinton for the most part ran 2-4 point behind Obama. I'd have to go back over the numbers, but I don't remember any group where Clinton out performed Obama, where she got a higher percentage of the vote than Obama did in any group. Trump on the other hand, had several groups where he did better than Romney and several where he did worst. I'll check on Clinton and let you know if I find a group where she out performed Obama.
 
The key for me was that Obama-to-Trump mitigated Romney-to-Clinton.

Okay Jack, I said I'd get back to you on whether there was a group of voters where Clinton did out perform Obama or receive a higher percentage of the vote. There were actually four categories out of 25 or so.
65 years or older Obama 44%, Clinton 45%
Making a $100,000 or more Obama 44%, Clinton 46%
College Grad Obama 47%, Clinton 49%.
Post Graduate Obama 55%, Clinton 58%

That's it. Every other category or group of voters Obama did 3-4 points better than Clinton or more. The or more categories are Blacks, Clinton 5 points less. Hispanics, Clinton 6 points less. 18-29 year olds, Clinton 6 points less. Income under 50,000, Clinton 7 points less. Union households, Clinton 7 points less. You have the categories above in which Clinton out performed Obama, every other category Clinton was 1-4 points less than Obama.
 
Probably like most people - trying to find the logic behind what both parties are doing! I'm beginning to think there's little or no logic involved, but that it's mostly emotions that are ruling right now! :eek: :shock:

I think its more simple.. its not emotion.. it think the GOP politicians simply are hunkering down and trying to keep their jobs. They don't care whats best for America as a whole.. because doing that will make too many of their constituents unhappy. The are simply doing whats going to get them reelected in the midterms. and as an incumbent.. you best bet is to not make mistakes.. rather than take a risk on legislation.
 
That sure sounds like what I would do if I was scared the trail of evidence was going to prove that I was in fact colluding with Russia in order to win the election.



I think you will find that this poll is skewed quite heavily by Bernie Sanders supporters who are still angry he wasn't the nominee. While they may be sore with the Democratic Party that does not mean they are going to vote for another party in any significant numbers.

What your polls are not factoring in is the unfortunate drop in the enthusiasm gap during the 2016 election. A lot of Obama supporters didn't show up because they didn't particularly like Clinton, and they just assumed she'd win anyway. They stayed home or voted third party out of protest, but after seeing how destructive Trump's presidency has been I would not count on that happening again.

The only thing that's going to hurt Democrats in 2018 is a gerrymandered House, and the fact that there just happens to be few Republican Senate seats up for grabs.

It's very possible that Clinton rigging the election against Bernie is what caused her to lose against Trump.
 
In 2020 it may all boil down to if the Republicans mount a challenge against Trump in the primaries, such as Ted Kennedy did against Jimmy Carter. If that happens it may spell doom for the party in 2020. However, if Trump actually is failure (not just in the eyes of the left) then the Republicans will have to mount a challenge against him. If Trump is only seen as a failure by the rabid loud mouthed liberal left then Trump wins easily.
 
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