The numbers show 5%of Republicans abandoned Trump, Romney 93% of this group to Trump's 88%. On the Democratic side, Obama 92% of Democrats to Clinton's 89%. That's only a three point drop. So more Republicans left Trump than Democrats left Clinton although the numbers are so close. But here are some groups to look at:
18-29 year olds Obama 60, Romney 37% - Clinton 55%, Trump 36% Both candidates dropped, Clinton by 5 to Trump's 1, but third party voters went from 3% to 9%. If you add up Clinton's 5 point drop and Trump's 1, that is 6 points and add the 3 points that voted third party in 2012 to the 6 point you have the 9 point total. In this age group, Obama voters went third party and not to Trump or he would have risen instead of fallen.
Whites Romney 59%, Obama 39% - Trump 57%, Clinton 37% both dropped two points, identical. Both lost voters to third party candidates.
Blacks Obama 93%, Romney 6% - Clinton 88%, Trump 8%. Clinton did lose 5 points and Trump did 2 points better than Obama. So you do have some Obama to Trump voters here. But since Clinton dropped points, there were still more Obama to third party voters than Obama to Trump.
Hispanics Obama 71%, Romney 27% - Clinton 65%, Trump 29%. Clinton dropped 6 points and Trump rose 2. What you have is 4 points of Clinton's drop is due to Obama to third party while 2 points is Obama to Trump.
Union households Obama 58%, Romney 40% - Clinton 51%, Trump 43% a 7 point drop for Clinton, Trump rose 3. But once again you have 4 points of what one can call the Obama to third party and 3 points of Obama to Trump.
Middle Class Romney 52%, Obama 46% - Trump 49%, Clinton 46%. In this group which is different from above, but still shows Clinton matching Obama while Trump lost 3 point or was 3 points lower than Romney. But there was no Romney to Clinton voters, those 3 points of voters went Romney to third party.
There's more, but where Clinton lost or dropped from Obama's totals was due to more Obama voters voting third party than Obama voters voting for Trump although some of that happened. But not enough to be hyped as some and the article were doing. What should be hyped in my opinion is the number of Obama to third party voters. Its there where Clinton lost the election and failed.
Remember Trump finished at 46% of the total vote, Romney at 47%. But for me, the biggest group that may have decided this election can't be compared to Obama or to any group in 2012. That is Sanders voters. Whereas Clinton won the over all Democratic base vote 89-8 over Trump with 3% voting third party, she won Sanders voters by only a 65-22 margin over Trump with 13% of Sanders voters voting third party. That isn't a Obama to Trump group or voters, but it is a Sanders to Trump voting block of substantial proportion. That also gets ignored.
From your friendly numbers guy.