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Trump Leads in Swing State Polls

NeverTrump

NeverTrump

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All swings states are now polling in Trump's favor or at least within a margin of error of -/+ 3 points. Virginia is now a Toss-up. Utah is solid red again. Even Pennsylvania is in play! Trump has the momentum to take this all the way :scared:

Check out 538 Prediction: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ At one point today it had Hillary 66.6% Chance of winning............ :devil:


PA: Clinton +6/Clinton +3/Tie RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

VA: Clinton +4/ Clinton +1/Trump+2 RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

N.C. Clinton +3/Tie/Trump +3 RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson

Utah Trump +11/+14 RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Utah: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein vs. McMullin

FL: Trump +3/Tie RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson

NV: Clinton +1/Trump +2/+5 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

AZ: Clinton +.5/Trump +2.5/+5.5 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6088.html

IA: Clinton +2/Trump +1/+4 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6007.html

OH: Tie/Trump +3/+6 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html

NH Clinton +3.8/.8/Trump +3.8 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mpshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6023.html

Either way, Clinton is not winning by a lot here, now some on here have always said that, but are you surprised how much Trump has stabilized?
 
ModerateGOP said:
All swings states are now polling in Trump's favor or at least within a margin of error of -/+ 3 points. Virginia is now a Toss-up. Utah is solid red again. Even Pennsylvania is in play! Trump has the momentum to take this all the way :scared:

Check out 538 Prediction: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ At one point today it had Hillary 66.6% Chance of winning............ :devil:


PA: Clinton +6/Clinton +3/Tie RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

VA: Clinton +4/ Clinton +1/Trump+2 RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

N.C. Clinton +3/Tie/Trump +3 RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson

Utah Trump +11/+14 RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Utah: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein vs. McMullin

FL: Trump +3/Tie RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson

NV: Clinton +1/Trump +2/+5 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

AZ: Clinton +.5/Trump +2.5/+5.5 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6088.html

IA: Clinton +2/Trump +1/+4 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6007.html

OH: Tie/Trump +3/+6 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html

NH Clinton +3.8/.8/Trump +3.8 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mpshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6023.html

Either way, Clinton is not winning by a lot here, now some on here have always said that, but are you surprised how much Trump has stabilized?
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It's certainly close now. I wouldn't call Virginia a tossup, but that's not one Trump really needs. It'll be interesting to see how it turns out.
 
Anagram said:
It's certainly close now. I wouldn't call Virginia a tossup, but that's not one Trump really needs. It'll be interesting to see how it turns out.
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It was a solid blue now it's a very light blue! Basically white. He needs either PA or VA to win in a landslide, otherwise it'll be finger-biting.
 
ModerateGOP said:
It was a solid blue now it's a very light blue! Basically white. He needs either PA or VA to win in a landslide, otherwise it'll be finger-biting.
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He's not going to win in a landslide. There are too many early votes for that. And he's probably not going to win PA or VA. Even at this nadir for Clinton, there has only been one poll showing Trump winning either, and that was a pretty lousy one. His best chance is to get a surprise win in Michigan while holding IA, FL, NC, and OH. Apparently the AA vote in Detroit looks likely to crater there.
 
Anagram said:
He's not going to win in a landslide. There are too many early votes for that. And he's probably not going to win PA or VA. Even at this nadir for Clinton, there has only been one poll showing Trump winning either, and that was a pretty lousy one. His best chance is to get a surprise win in Michigan while holding IA, FL, NC, and OH. Apparently the AA vote in Detroit looks likely to crater there.
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He's got as good a shot winning Michigan as he does PA or VA. Michigan has never gone red in the polls this cycle either. I have family in VA and the local press is going insane because of the polling that puts VA as toss up right now. But I must say there seems to be more Trump territory in Michigan.

I see NC, PA, VA, all as YUGE Question marks right now. Those states can go either way. I give Trump the slight lead in FL and NH.
 
If Trump were to win, I think this the most likely outcome:
prediction.jpg
 
ModerateGOP said:
All swings states are now polling in Trump's favor or at least within a margin of error of -/+ 3 points. Virginia is now a Toss-up. Utah is solid red again. Even Pennsylvania is in play! Trump has the momentum to take this all the way :scared:

Check out 538 Prediction: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ At one point today it had Hillary 66.6% Chance of winning............ :devil:


PA: Clinton +6/Clinton +3/Tie RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

VA: Clinton +4/ Clinton +1/Trump+2 RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

N.C. Clinton +3/Tie/Trump +3 RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson

Utah Trump +11/+14 RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Utah: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein vs. McMullin

FL: Trump +3/Tie RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson

NV: Clinton +1/Trump +2/+5 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

AZ: Clinton +.5/Trump +2.5/+5.5 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6088.html

IA: Clinton +2/Trump +1/+4 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6007.html

OH: Tie/Trump +3/+6 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html

NH Clinton +3.8/.8/Trump +3.8 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mpshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6023.html

Either way, Clinton is not winning by a lot here, now some on here have always said that, but are you surprised how much Trump has stabilized?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how much some of the polls mean at this point. FL already has about 4 million votes cast and Hillary has a huge lead as far as the party registry of who voted. She also is doing better than Obama in early voting in CO and NV.
 
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