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Trump's Path to Victory Has No Room for Error

NeverTrump

NeverTrump

Exposing GOP since 2015
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I've written this on another thread, but I put all my points together here. Because I think it's pretty accurate, and it's sensible for Trumkins to see. Trump's path to electoral victory leaves little in the way of error. He cannot lose one of the states on his must win roster. I have narrowed down these states to be of the following make up:

Trump NEEDS, Florida and North Carolina just to be IN PLAY! If he loses either of those, it's game over! On top of THAT! He'll have to grab two or three more states from Clinton, at least just to win! Namely those would be Arizona and and two of the M states Michigan or Minnesota. I have Trump's most favorable outcome of him winning, AZ, NC, FL, WI, MN, NH, IA. I think that's the only way he gets to 271. He HAS to HAS to win all these states. There is No margin of error. Even if he loses NH. He loses.

Clinton on the other hand has a much easier shot at winning the whole thing. Hillary only needs Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota to win. She can even afford to lose one of those states M states. She'll def get PA and one of the M states, probably both.

All calculations are based on interactive electoral maps and 538/RCP probabilities.
 
ModerateGOP said:
I've written this on another thread, but I put all my points together here. Because I think it's pretty accurate, and it's sensible for Trumkins to see. Trump's path to electoral victory leaves little in the way of error. He cannot lose one of the states on his must win roster. I have narrowed down these states to be of the following make up:

Trump NEEDS, Florida and North Carolina just to be IN PLAY! If he loses either of those, it's game over! On top of THAT! He'll have to grab two or three more states from Clinton, at least just to win! Namely those would be Arizona and and two of the M states Michigan or Minnesota. I have Trump's most favorable outcome of him winning, AZ, NC, FL, WI, MN, NH, IA. I think that's the only way he gets to 271. He HAS to HAS to win all these states. There is No margin of error. Even if he loses NH. He loses.

Clinton on the other hand has a much easier shot at winning the whole thing. Hillary only needs Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota to win. She can even afford to lose one of those states M states. She'll def get PA and one of the M states, probably both.

All calculations are based on interactive electoral maps and 538/RCP probabilities.
Click to expand...

Barring stag films of Hillary and a circus car filled with creepy clowns burning babies on a All Hallows Eve sacrificial altar or its equal - I see no real path for a Trump victory. The excellent story in todays Wall Street Journal exposed the ugly strategy of Trump and it involves so alienating tens of millions of possible Clinton voters that turnout is down dangerously so low as it allows his basket of deplorables to win with a low amount that has not been seen in decades.

That alone should the disgust American people.
 
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haymarket said:
Barring stag films of Hillary and a circus car filled with creepy clowns burning babies on a All Hallows Eve sacrificial altar or its equal - I see no real path for a Trump victory. The excellent story in todays Wall Street Journal exposed the ugly strategy of Trump and it involves so alienating tens of millions of possible Clinton voters that turnout is down dangerously so low as it allows his basket of deplorable to win with a low amount that has not been seen in decades.

That alone should the disgust American people.
Click to expand...

True, but I am just talking the numbers here, and they were at one point last week, pretty darn close on a state by state basis. They still are, but are moving sharply in Clinton's direction. If Trump tried he could be within striking distance, but he's given up. I expect Clinton's numbers to average out a +5% points ahead of Trump state by state in the swing states and those listed above. Florida and NC are now light Blue in light of the tape. WI is solid blue. Clinton is within striking distance of MI. NC is light blue. I think everything is light blue at the moment.
 
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