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2020 senatorial election

M

Masterhawk

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The 2020 senatorial elections are coming up in a few months. Most states currently have a senatorial election.

Black states do not have a senatorial election. Light colors indicate a retention while darker colors indicate a projected gain. Grey states are tossups.
E9DDE7F9-468C-4D4E-B033-1D71D207BB05.jpg

As ou can see, only one projected change is Alabama which currently has a democrat in office but is expected to be replaced by a republican. There are 53 republicans, 45 democrats, and 2 independents (one of which may as well be a democrat). There are four tossups, all of which have a republican incumbent. Assuming that the republicans win Alabama and every prediction is true, the republicans only need to worry about losing a single one of those states if Trump loses reelection.
 
Masterhawk said:
The 2020 senatorial elections are coming up in a few months. Most states currently have a senatorial election.

Black states do not have a senatorial election. Light colors indicate a retention while darker colors indicate a projected gain. Grey states are tossups.
View attachment 67284469

As ou can see, only one projected change is Alabama which currently has a democrat in office but is expected to be replaced by a republican. There are 53 republicans, 45 democrats, and 2 independents (one of which may as well be a democrat). There are four tossups, all of which have a republican incumbent. Assuming that the republicans win Alabama and every prediction is true, the republicans only need to worry about losing a single one of those states if Trump loses reelection.
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GOP will lose six.
 
Mark Kelly (D) currently leads McSally (R) by about 13 points. McSally has launched a large ad blitz linking Kelly to China. I don't think it's going to work. Never in my life did I ever think Arizona would have two dem senators.
 
JMR said:
Please, can one of those be Kentucky? That would be great.
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Mitch is in a race. Never thought I'd see that. I still think he wins though.
 
azgreg said:
Mitch is in a race. Never thought I'd see that. I still think he wins though.
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I suspect he will squeeze through, but I swear, I will jump up and down and lose any sense of decorum if he loses. Same is true for Graham. I will be almost as happy if Collins 'learns her lesson'.
 
btthegreat said:
I suspect he will squeeze through, but I swear, I will jump up and down and lose any sense of decorum if he loses. Same is true for Graham. I will be almost as happy if Collins 'learns her lesson'.
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Don't forget Joni Ernst. Last I looked she was trailing.
 
azgreg said:
Don't forget Joni Ernst. Last I looked she was trailing.
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Graham, McConnell, Ernst, and Collins have to be considered favorites until beaten.
 
btthegreat said:
I suspect he will squeeze through, but I swear, I will jump up and down and lose any sense of decorum if he loses. Same is true for Graham. I will be almost as happy if Collins 'learns her lesson'.
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Jump up and down now.

Gaze the map and pull on the mental bodies of the inhabitants as we put forth our desperate agenda to (to not have Trump) have Trump on the Republicans for twice their fiscal irresponsibility to stop and for what they did to us and Obama.
 
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jamesbyoung said:
Graham, McConnell, Ernst, and Collins have to be considered favorites until beaten.
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The Republicans are nearly assured to lose in Arizona and Colorado. They are most likely to lose in Maine and North Carolina. They probably will lose in Georgia, Montana and Iowa. If so, the Republicans would be down 7 and up 1... for a net gain of 6 for the Dems.

The Dems have an outside chance in South Carolina, Kentucky and Kansas.... but they would all be long-shots. Each of those, however, could be doable if the pandemic lingers, the economy slides further and the Republicans fail to distance themselves from Trump's increasingly desperate moves. Since all three of those things are probable, the Dems are likely see daylight (odds will improve, but the seats do not flip) in those other races as well.

[video]https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-democrats-could-win-60-seats-in-the-senate/[/video]
 
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