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A book titled Keys to the White House lists 13 different factors which play a role in determining who wins the presidential nomination. This book, written in 1996, applies these to every election after 1860. When five or fewer of these conditions turn up to be false, the incumbent party's candidate will win. There have been five elections since the publication of this book and only one of them (2000) went up against the predictions. And even then, Al Gore won the popular vote which leads to the thing worth mentioning that this moreso applies to the popular vote than it does to the electoral college. Also, exactly five of these conditions were false with an ambiguous sixth (the third party).
Here are the conditions:
1. The incumbent's party makes gains in the house of Representatives for the midterms
The republicans not only lost seats but also their house majority.
2. No serious challenge to the incumbent party's candidate
As the sitting president, Trump will likely not see any challenges from his own party.
3. The incumbent is running for reelection
As mentioned in point 2, Trump is the sitting president.
4. The strongest third party candidate has less than 5%
So far, no signs of a strong third party candidate. Though, this could change.
5. The economy is not in recession during election season
Although some economists and articles are predicting a recession in the near future, this country is not currently in recession.
6. The economy is doing better under the sitting president than under the previous administration
Obama inherited the country shortly after the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, Trump started his reign when the economy was strong and unemployment being low.
7. major policy change from the previous administration
Trump made major changes from the Obama administration such as lowering the corporate income tax, pulling out of the Iran deal, making strides towards North Korea, and pursuing fair trade.
8. no social unrest during the incumbent's term
Unless you consider a few anti Trump protests to be social unrest, this condition is true.
9. The incumbent's administration has not experienced a major scandal
Trump's entire term (and campaign) has been mired with scandal from women accusing him of sexual harassment to the Mueller investigation and being a figurehead for the alt right.
10. The incumbent administration has experienced a foreign policy success
Though we can't be sure just yet, Trump seems to be making more progress in rekindling relations with North Korea than any recent administration.
11. The incumbent administration has not experienced a foreign policy failure
So far, no failures yet. If Trump invades Iran at some point between now and election day, this may change.
12. The incumbent party's candidate is charismatic
This one is probably true. Although Trump has struggled with approval rating, he's been able to build up a strong support base. If something ever happens to Trump and Mike Pence becomes the president, this key will turn false.
13. The opposition does not have a charismatic candidate
This really depends on which candidate wins the nomination. Bernie Sanders would be able to turn this key against Trump but Joe Biden probably wouldn't
Three keys are definitely in Trump's favor, five are likely to favor him, two are up in the air, and two are against him.
You may have noticed that none of these keys concern approval rating or polling numbers. Also, some of these keys are ambiguous in definition. For example, social unrest may be a bit ambiguous. For charismatic, the book lists the threshold of FDR, Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan.
Whether Trump gets reelected will depend on a few factors. If Trump can work out a deal with North Korea and doesn't invade Iran, he stands a good chance of winning a second term. However, if there's a recession or social unrest between now and election day, it can really undermine his chances. It also depends on whether Sanders wins the nomination and if a third party candidate manages to get over 5%. However, as it stands, the odds currently favor Trump.
Here are the conditions:
1. The incumbent's party makes gains in the house of Representatives for the midterms
The republicans not only lost seats but also their house majority.
2. No serious challenge to the incumbent party's candidate
As the sitting president, Trump will likely not see any challenges from his own party.
3. The incumbent is running for reelection
As mentioned in point 2, Trump is the sitting president.
4. The strongest third party candidate has less than 5%
So far, no signs of a strong third party candidate. Though, this could change.
5. The economy is not in recession during election season
Although some economists and articles are predicting a recession in the near future, this country is not currently in recession.
6. The economy is doing better under the sitting president than under the previous administration
Obama inherited the country shortly after the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, Trump started his reign when the economy was strong and unemployment being low.
7. major policy change from the previous administration
Trump made major changes from the Obama administration such as lowering the corporate income tax, pulling out of the Iran deal, making strides towards North Korea, and pursuing fair trade.
8. no social unrest during the incumbent's term
Unless you consider a few anti Trump protests to be social unrest, this condition is true.
9. The incumbent's administration has not experienced a major scandal
Trump's entire term (and campaign) has been mired with scandal from women accusing him of sexual harassment to the Mueller investigation and being a figurehead for the alt right.
10. The incumbent administration has experienced a foreign policy success
Though we can't be sure just yet, Trump seems to be making more progress in rekindling relations with North Korea than any recent administration.
11. The incumbent administration has not experienced a foreign policy failure
So far, no failures yet. If Trump invades Iran at some point between now and election day, this may change.
12. The incumbent party's candidate is charismatic
This one is probably true. Although Trump has struggled with approval rating, he's been able to build up a strong support base. If something ever happens to Trump and Mike Pence becomes the president, this key will turn false.
13. The opposition does not have a charismatic candidate
This really depends on which candidate wins the nomination. Bernie Sanders would be able to turn this key against Trump but Joe Biden probably wouldn't
Three keys are definitely in Trump's favor, five are likely to favor him, two are up in the air, and two are against him.
You may have noticed that none of these keys concern approval rating or polling numbers. Also, some of these keys are ambiguous in definition. For example, social unrest may be a bit ambiguous. For charismatic, the book lists the threshold of FDR, Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan.
Whether Trump gets reelected will depend on a few factors. If Trump can work out a deal with North Korea and doesn't invade Iran, he stands a good chance of winning a second term. However, if there's a recession or social unrest between now and election day, it can really undermine his chances. It also depends on whether Sanders wins the nomination and if a third party candidate manages to get over 5%. However, as it stands, the odds currently favor Trump.