Trump's odds to get re-elected for second term

I'm not aware of all things related to Trump and on going investigations, but there is few possible bad things coming: Trump's tax-info, Mueller before congress and follow-the-money investigations (there is multiple?). As an additional thing, Barr is in trouble now (?) If Barr will resign how it can impact on Trump's rallying and coming political debates? If Mueller is coming to testify and bring up something new and Barr is in even worse light after that (I'm just speculating) White House need to spin it really hard, but is it even possible to turn it around to something pure and beautiful?

If everything goes well for Trump and he can keep he's base happy by rallying and being successful at maintaining current narrative - Trump may get enough votes.

Media (most of it), even Fox News, is trashing Trump now and there's some reason behind why it's happening - so I don't think it's about 100% bias, there's some real facts too against Trump now. Fox is slowly turning like big boat and if Fox News really turn around, is there any alternative "propaganda provider" to run Trump's agenda?

Some people say that it's next to impossible change any Trump supporters mind. So Trump can do almost anything and MAGA people keep smiling from ear to ear. Is it so?

Right now the odds of Trump being elected are about 50 %, with a 50 % margin of error.

FinnFox said:

I'm not aware of all things related to Trump and on going investigations, but there is few possible bad things coming: Trump's tax-info, Mueller before congress and follow-the-money investigations (there is multiple?). As an additional thing, Barr is in trouble now (?) If Barr will resign how it can impact on Trump's rallying and coming political debates? If Mueller is coming to testify and bring up something new and Barr is in even worse light after that (I'm just speculating) White House need to spin it really hard, but is it even possible to turn it around to something pure and beautiful?

If everything goes well for Trump and he can keep he's base happy by rallying and being successful at maintaining current narrative - Trump may get enough votes.

Media (most of it), even Fox News, is trashing Trump now and there's some reason behind why it's happening - so I don't think it's about 100% bias, there's some real facts too against Trump now. Fox is slowly turning like big boat and if Fox News really turn around, is there any alternative "propaganda provider" to run Trump's agenda?

Some people say that it's next to impossible change any Trump supporters mind. So Trump can do almost anything and MAGA people keep smiling from ear to ear. Is it so?

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Given their performance over the last 2 years, a person would have to be crazy to take anything the mainstream media says about Trump at face value, and that especially goes for polls.

Haven't we learned that lesson? The polls all had Trump losing, and he won.

From my position here inside this conservative-libertarian bubble of mine, it looks like Trump will win going away, and you can take that to the National Bank of the Caymen Islands.

FinnFox said:

I'm not aware of all things related to Trump and on going investigations, but there is few possible bad things coming: Trump's tax-info, Mueller before congress and follow-the-money investigations (there is multiple?). As an additional thing, Barr is in trouble now (?) If Barr will resign how it can impact on Trump's rallying and coming political debates? If Mueller is coming to testify and bring up something new and Barr is in even worse light after that (I'm just speculating) White House need to spin it really hard, but is it even possible to turn it around to something pure and beautiful?

If everything goes well for Trump and he can keep he's base happy by rallying and being successful at maintaining current narrative - Trump may get enough votes.

Media (most of it), even Fox News, is trashing Trump now and there's some reason behind why it's happening - so I don't think it's about 100% bias, there's some real facts too against Trump now. Fox is slowly turning like big boat and if Fox News really turn around, is there any alternative "propaganda provider" to run Trump's agenda?

Some people say that it's next to impossible change any Trump supporters mind. So Trump can do almost anything and MAGA people keep smiling from ear to ear. Is it so?

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The only thing Trump could do that would change his base's mind about him would be to suddenly start being politically correct. So long as he's saying and doing things that outrage PC culture, he will be popular with his base.

That said, his base is nowhere near enough to get him elected in 2020. Trump had a unique advantage in how hated Hillary Clinton was. For every vote Hillary got, there were 3 who voted third party, and 20 that didn't bother voting at all. It was a perfect storm of Hillary hate combined with Trump celebrity. And even in such a favorable political environment Trump still lost the popular vote. Now that those people who voted third party or abstained in 2016 have seen the consequences of "voting their conscience" rather than falling lockstep behind the party line, Trump is a loser candidate all the way to the election. Democrats are going to trounce Republicans in 2020.

That said, I honestly thought Trump would lose in 2016, (though I thought it was going to be closer than folks were predicting,) so take my opinion with a grain of salt.

The largest voting bloc in the US are Independents.

Independents: 42%

Democrats: 31%

Republican: 24%

Democrats will certainly vote AGAINST Trump. Republicans will certainly vote FOR Trump.

Up for grabs are the Independents. This is why dems will lose in 2020. They are alienating the largest voting bloc by touting extremism and hate.

I often talk to independents and many of them are terrified with the divisiveness and identity-politics of the left. Most indies will vote AGAINST socialism and Big Government, and Trump should win handily in 2020. :2usflag:

SkyChief said:

The largest voting bloc in the US are Independents.

I often talk to independents and many of them are terrified with the divisiveness and identity-politics of the left. Most indies will vote AGAINST socialism and Big Government, and Trump should win handily in 2020. :2usflag:

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In case Trump get re-elected it's gonna be more or less entertaining oddity for anyone (like me) who don't understand Trumpism. Trump is weird guy with foggy background (how much we really know so far?). I'm pretty sure that Trump is seen as most incompetent President so far in EU (you remember all that laughing in UN after Trump bragged). If I compare Trump's way to talk to Obama, difference is huge. I'm not saying "Obama is genius", but one difference is that Trump is bragging a lot, even about his own abilities (big brains, stable genius, etc). I know it's also about culture and any bragging in my country is immediately counted as idiotic and it's really awkward. There's lot of those things what I don't get about Trump. How he is tweeting, messing with words (Tim Apple, Oranges/Origins (?), about how wet water is (it was about rain or what the heck it was?)... I just don't get it how Trump's mind works, but it's sometimes hard to follow.

Somehow all that (above) is like magnet and people keep cheering at rally's. So many MAGA hats and Trump is enjoying the every moment - all the lovely people around when media is "big, bad and biased", well.. for me it's a mess and I don't understand how it works. I'm amazed that it's even possible see Trump as competent and intellectual (enough) to be POTUS.

Well, I'm waiting those debates and gonna watch them. It's kinda interesting that my picture about Trump is so negative and last thing was Arctic meeting here in Finland - Trump's admin was alone pushing weird narrative as Arctic is seen only through $$$ lenses, like money is everything now. I'm tree hugger, voted Greens in last election, and it's just sad how things are now. Outcome from Arctic meeting was ZERO.

FinnFox said:

I'm pretty sure that Trump is seen as most incompetent President so far in EU (you remember all that laughing in UN after Trump bragged).

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No offense, but we couldn't care less what people in the EU think about our President.

SkyChief said:

No offense, but we couldn't care less what people in the EU think about our President.

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I know, it's still funny how someone is so quickly judged as fool and that image is almost like a cancer - hard to deal with and change it to something nice. Actually it's interesting why so many things outside of USA aren't meaningful at all. Maybe it's not like that, but that's reflection what I get from comments like that. Trump is leader of the most richest country in the world and he's first POTUS who reached this clown-status so far. Maybe it's enough if President is respected inside own country, so there's not worries how badly people think of him. I think it's sad how it is, even when most of folks in US don't care what people think in over-seas countries. How people in US see EU? (is that place where fools are or something else?)

Trump really is Making America Great Again. His personality isn't a big deal. His policies actually work. Is the EU becoming great again? Was it ever? Why does it seem like many of the EU countries are less than enthusiastic about the EU?
Do you ever worry about losing your national identity? Your culture?

Trump has a 50/50 chance of winning a second term! Odds from - Bookmaker Sportsbook

US 2020 NEXT PRESIDENT ELECTED (ALL IN/NO REFUNDS)UPDATED #2
Donald Trump+101
Bernie Sanders+805
Kamala Harris+1119
Pete Buttigieg+860
Beto O'Rourke+2605
Joe Biden+526
Andrew Yang+2925
Elizabeth Warren+2746
Tulsi Gabbard+7000
Amy Klobuchar+9500
Cory Booker+9000
Mike Pence+6759
Julián Castro+21500
Howard Schultz+20000
John Kasich+25000
Jay Inslee+24000
Kirsten Gillibrand+14500
John Hickenlooper+25000


Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election- Betonline Sportsbook
08:30 PM

2001 Donald Trump +100
2004 Joe Biden +500
2002 Bernie Sanders +1000
2003 Kamala Harris +1400
2060 Pete Buttigieg +1400
2068 Andrew Yang +2000
2047 Beto ORourke +2500
2006 Elizabeth Warren +2500
2017 Amy Klobuchar +5000
2007 Cory Booker +6600
2025 Tulsi Gabbard +6600
2005 Mike Pence +8000
2031 Howard Schultz +10000
2024 John Kasich +10000
2008 Kirsten Gillibrand +10000
2011 Nikki Haley +10000
2015 Julian Castro +12500
2013 Andrew Cuomo +15000
2052 Gavin Newsom +15000
2050 John Hickenlooper +15000

Grandpappy said:

Trump really is Making America Great Again. His personality isn't a big deal. His policies actually work. Is the EU becoming great again? Was it ever? Why does it seem like many of the EU countries are less than enthusiastic about the EU?
Do you ever worry about losing your national identity? Your culture?

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What's YOUR culture?

FinnFox said:

Trump may get enough votes.

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1. Yes, the President may get enough votes to win in 2020.

a. But there is one problem that you may not have heard of.
b. In your beautiful and peaceful country, I am sure that you have honest elections. In this country, we have a history of dishonest elections.
c. As you know many, many people from other countries are entering the USA without permission. Some of them are illegally voting in blue (Democratic Party controlled) states. They could tip the balance.

d. The blue states are also doing all kinds of petty things (such as trying to keep Donald J. Trump's name off certain ballots) to prevent there being an honest election.


So the odds of his reelection do NOT look that good at the moment. His enemies are determined that he not have another term, and they are prepared to do anything that it takes to achieve their goal.

Checkerboard Strangler said:

What's YOUR culture?

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I'm an American. I salute the flag. Believe that all men are created equal. Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. All that sort of thing. You?

Grandpappy said:

I'm an American. I salute the flag. Believe that all men are created equal. Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. All that sort of thing. You?

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Same, but I did not ask about nor impugn your patriotism. I asked about your culture and your identity, seeing as how you brought up those subjects in the post I was responding to.

Please try to answer the specific question instead of deflecting.

Checkerboard Strangler said:

Same, but I did not ask about nor impugn your patriotism. I asked about your culture and your identity, seeing as how you brought up those subjects in the post I was responding to.

Please try to answer the specific question instead of deflecting.

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I'm a blue collar Caucasian baby boomer. According to Ancestry com, I'm 99 percent UK and Western European and 1 percent Jewish. My wife is Jewish.
My family has been here a long time. Some fought in the Civil War.

Grandpappy said:

I'm a blue collar Caucasian baby boomer. According to Ancestry com, I'm 99 percent UK and Western European and 1 percent Jewish. My wife is Jewish.
My family has been here a long time. Some fought in the Civil War.

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I'm the son of two illegal immigrants, one who entered "without papers" and another who fled here as a refugee.

Checkerboard Strangler said:

I'm the son of two illegal immigrants, one who entered "without papers" and another who fled here as a refugee.

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Hispanic?

Grandpappy said:

Hispanic?

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Jew-talian.
My father fled here from Germany and landed in New York in 1937, age fifteen...nothing in his pockets.
He applied for and was finally granted legal residency, just in time to wind up in the Army in 1942, where he was shipped right back to Germany again. Signal Corps, native German speaker. Took two Nazi bullets to the neck, managed to survive and recuperate over a seven month period at a VA in Atlanta, GA.
He went on to invent nuclear hardening for military and mission critical civilian electronics as a nuclear physicist working at the Pentagon.

My mother arrived here with her father, fleeing Mussolini. Ellis Island stamped them "W.O.P." - - with out papers.
She too applied for and was granted legal residency, then naturalized as a citizen.

Once upon a time our immigration made a little more sense than it does now.

Sounds like you come from good people.
My dad was in the Army Air Corps in the war, stationed in the Pacific.