If not Trump, then who?

code1211 said:

What are the outcomes you object to rising in the Trump administration?

All the metrics seem to be pretty good and improving.

How's your 401K doing?

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My 401K is doing great, thanks for asking. Outstanding investments by the person who manages both my 401K and my husband's. Why, did you need a loan?

Puigb said:

Personally, I think Rubio blew his chances when he supported that gang of 8 bill. Ever since then, the Republican base as a whole never trusted him again. Even though Trump is a flip flopping lying fraud, his so called "hardline stance" on immigration is what made him popular with a significant portion of the GOP base. Even Romney in 2012 had to pander to the far right with talk of "self deportation".

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That's because the average Republican in the new "Republican base" is paranoid about brown people.

tres borrachos said:

That's because the average Republican in the new "Republican base" is paranoid about brown people.

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They are paranoid about everything it seems. Gays, brown people, black people, Muslims, mythical socialists and communists, etc. But they have no fear anymore, because their orange hero is here to save them from all of those EVIL people!

tres borrachos said:

My 401K is doing great, thanks for asking. Outstanding investments by the person who manages both my 401K and my husband's. Why, did you need a loan?

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I made my last house payment in about 2002. My last car payment in about 1978. No credit card balance since the '80's

I'm not real big on borrowing money.

I just did a little research on the rise of the DJIA for another poster. From the end of 2014 through election day 2016, the DJIA waffled around 18,000.

It has now settled into a breath catching perch between 24,000 and 25,000.

There was a rise of about 300 points in the DOW in the 19 months leading up to election day. About a 6000 point rise in the 19 months following election day.

Whatever the performance of your 401K was prior to election day, I'm guessing the growth improved after election day.

code1211 said:

I made my last house payment in about 2002. My last car payment in about 1978. No credit card balance since the '80's

I'm not real big on borrowing money.

I just did a little research on the rise of the DJIA for another poster. From the end of 2014 through election day 2016, the DJIA waffled around 18,000.

It has now settled into a breath catching perch between 24,000 and 25,000.

There was a rise of about 300 points in the DOW in the 19 months leading up to election day. About a 6000 point rise in the 19 months following election day.

Whatever the performance of your 401K was prior to election day, I'm guessing the growth improved after election day.

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Actually, my 401K started doing great in the mid-1980s. It really went through the roof in the late 80s and through the mid-90s. It dipped badly about 10 years ago, as everyone else's did. Then by about January of 2011 it started making massive money again. It's been that way ever since.

tres borrachos said:

Actually, my 401K started doing great in the mid-1980s. It really went through the roof in the late 80s and through the mid-90s. It dipped badly about 10 years ago, as everyone else's did. Then by about January of 2011 it started making massive money again. It's been that way ever since.

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Mine went bananas in the 80 & 90's. It was called "Profit Sharing" in the earlier years.

Performance was a little spotty after 2000. As I got older, I transitioned to a far more conservative asset allocation. A bird in the hand and all that...

What has been very impressive to me is that with a far lesser investment from me, the monthly retirement income delivered to me from the 401K monies will be about equal to the return from the Social Security Administration. If I happen to die on day one of retirement though, the 401K also has a Lump Sum cash value which is very different from SS.

I feel like there is a lesson offered by that bit of mathematics.

code1211 said:

Mine went bananas in the 80 & 90's. It was called "Profit Sharing" in the earlier years.

Performance was a little spotty after 2000. As I got older, I transitioned to a far more conservative asset allocation. A bird in the hand and all that...

What has been very impressive to me is that with a far lesser investment from me, the monthly retirement income delivered to me from the 401K monies will be about equal to the return from the Social Security Administration. If I happen to die on day one of retirement though, the 401K also has a Lump Sum cash value which is very different from SS.

I feel like there is a lesson offered by that bit of mathematics.

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My husband and I are far more conservative with our investments now than we were as recently as 5 years ago. As our kids have gotten older, and we are both closer to retirement, we don't want the risks anymore. I made some risky overseas investments in the early 1990s, about 1991 or so. Unfortunately they didn't work so well. That's when we relocated our investments and the portfolios began to take off again. The Market was also getting better in the 1990s.

I still think, at this point in time, Paul Ryan is the most likely Republican to be able to unseat Trump in a primary.

If Trump doesn't run again, then I think all bets are off who wins the Republican nomination. I'm honestly not sure then.

If Trump runs again, or especially if it's Pence running unopposed, then barring a disastrous pick or campaign by Democrats I would say they'd be the legitimate favorite to likely pick up the Presidency in 2020

digsbe said:

I'd love for Rubio to run and beat Trump in the primary

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Ah no.

tres borrachos said:

That's because the average Republican in the new "Republican base" is paranoid about brown people.

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Tres, I used to respect your opinion. It has been difficult as of late. This quote is why I am having difficulties respecting you. You didn't used to be such a .... well you were much nicer. Its sad to see you fall like this. I wonder if you are a lost cause.

JimHackerMP said:

It's a possibility at least that Trump won't be re-elected in 2020.

Any thoughts as to his successor?

As a moderate independent, I can only hope that the Democratic Party doesn't do something stupid: like re nominate Hillary, or nominate someone like Bernie Sanders.

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Whether or not someone challenges Trump for the GOP 2020 nomination, I would prefer to see a fresh, young face for the Democrats. If that fresh young face is from flyover country instead of the Northeast, so much the better. The Democrats haven't had much luck nominating someone from the northeast lately. Dukakis, Kerry and Hillary Clinton all lost. They won with fresh young faces with Obama, Illinois, Bill Clinton in 1992, Arkansas and Jimmy Carter, Georgia 1976.

The most important voting group today are independents. According to Gallup, independents, the non-affiliated make up 45% of the electorate. Trump wouldn't be president today if he hadn't won independents, he won them over Hillary Clinton 46-42 with 12% voting third party. The fresh young face of Obama in 2008 won independents 52-44 over McCain and the presidency. In 2000 Bush won independents 48-46 over Gore, in 1992 a fresh young face named Bill Clinton won the independent vote over Bush 38-32 with 30% going to Perot. In 1988 Bush the elder won independents over that Northeasterner Dukakis 57-43, Reagan defeated Carter in 1980 by winning independents 58-31 with 12% voting for Anderson and so it goes.

Since 1980 Independents, the non-affiliated has grown from 29% to 35% in 2010 to 40% in 2014 to 45% today. If the Democrats want to win in 2020 they would be wise to shun an old leftest ideologue from the Northeast like Sanders, Schumer, Warren or even Hillary again and go with someone who appeals to independents. In my opinion, ideally, a fresh, young face from flyover country. I highly doubt that will happen.

digsbe said:

I'd love for Rubio to run and beat Trump in the primary

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If the last year and a half's legislative battles have been any indication, Rubio will tease a primary run, hold one event, and then disband his candidacy under the guise of needing to be a team player.

Zyphlin said:

I still think, at this point in time, Paul Ryan is the most likely Republican to be able to unseat Trump in a primary.

If Trump doesn't run again, then I think all bets are off who wins the Republican nomination. I'm honestly not sure then.

If Trump runs again, or especially if it's Pence running unopposed, then barring a disastrous pick or campaign by Democrats I would say they'd be the legitimate favorite to likely pick up the Presidency in 2020

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I'm pretty convinced that barring a serious development in polling, the chance for a primary challenge will remain slim to none.