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Thread: 2017 Political Earthquake, 2018 Political Tsunami?

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    2017 Political Earthquake, 2018 Political Tsunami?

    When historians look back at 2017, they may well record that 2017 was the year the nation awakened from Trumpism. In starkly clear terms, exit polls in such states as New Jersey and Virginia revealed that the elections up and down the ballot were referenda on Trumpism. Up and down the ballots, the voters rejected Trumpism.

    Depending what course the Republican Party takes, the 2017 election may also prove to be the cataclysmic earthquake that unleashed a political tsunami in 2018 that swept control of the House and even Senate away from the Republican Party. "May" is the operative word, as even in their weakened position, Republicans still have the strategic flexibility to do the right thing: Abandon Trump, reject Trumpism, and rediscover the nation's founding principles.

    If one examines the exit polls last night, two messages are clear:

    1. "Health care policy" is now a Democratic Party strength. Republican failure to come up with a coherent policy that would represent an improvement over current law combined with a reckless willingness to pursue defective bills that would have, among other things, risked millions of people losing their coverage, provided little or no premium relief, did not offer individual health purchasers the same tax treatment as employers, and masked a cynical bid to use the legislation as a vehicle to provide a low multiplier, extremely narrowly targeted tax cut, shattered Republican credibility on this issue. Once credibility is lost, it is very difficult to regain. Republicans who fail to heed the lesson of their health care debacle risk transforming the tax issue into a Democratic advantage as well. A 20% border adjustment excise tax that undermines supply chains and harms consumers, the reintroduction of "bracket creep," a politicized approach that targets taxpayers in so-called "blue states," and a plan that would result in tax hikes among many in all income groups by 2027 could bring about that outcome. For Republicans, the loss of what has long been among the Party's signature issues would be catastrophic.

    2. Trump-Bannon-Coulter alt-right, white nationalist, identity politics is not a winning approach. It has been repudiated. Voters knew what the President didn't: there were no "very fine people" among the white nationalists who descended on Charlottesville like a Biblical plague of locusts. Millennial, female, and college-educated voters recoiled from the politics of depraved division.

    Trumpism corrupts politically, economically, morally, and spiritually. Trumpist populism is a rejection of the nation's founding principles that embrace individual freedom, promote unity as opposed to "blood and soil" balkanization, and are anchored in truth. The political leaders who drank from the poisoned chalice of Trumpism paid a price yesterday.

    Republicans now have a fateful choice before them. They can dissociate from President Trump, abandon the Trumpist populist agenda, rediscover the nation's founding principles, and devise policy solutions based on those principles for the 21st century context or they can stand with President Trump and Trumpism. If so, they will face electoral disaster in 2018 and risk the destruction of both the Republican Party as a nationally viable political party and the American conservative movement as a relevant national movement. The former course offers the possibility of political redemption. The latter leads to political damnation.

    What choice will Republicans make? Will conservatives break free from the pull of toxic Trumpism?

    For now, in Maine, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia, among other places, there is the rubble from 2017's political earthquake. A political tsunami watch has been posted for 2018. Whether such a tsunami occurs is still a matter of choice for Republicans, but the time for choosing is fast diminishing. At some point, the latitude for choice will disappear altogether. Then, a political tsunami will become inevitable and unstoppable. In its wake, control of one or both Houses of Congress could be lost and there is even a risk that the nation could no longer have a viable right-of-center political party.

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    Re: 2017 Political Earthquake, 2018 Political Tsunami?

    It's incredible what the Democrats can accomplish when they don't have a neoconservative Presidential candidate as their face. This is what 2016 would have looked like if practically anyone other than Hillary had run against Trump.

    ...Man, I really hope the Republicans can get their **** together. If we thought a two-party system was chock full of issues...
    Quote Originally Posted by truthatallcost View Post
    Pepe Booth strikes again.

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    Re: 2017 Political Earthquake, 2018 Political Tsunami?

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    When historians look back at 2017, they may well record that 2017 was the year the nation awakened from Trumpism. In starkly clear terms, exit polls in such states as New Jersey and Virginia revealed that the elections up and down the ballot were referenda on Trumpism. Up and down the ballots, the voters rejected Trumpism.

    Depending what course the Republican Party takes, the 2017 election may also prove to be the cataclysmic earthquake that unleashed a political tsunami in 2018 that swept control of the House and even Senate away from the Republican Party. "May" is the operative word, as even in their weakened position, Republicans still have the strategic flexibility to do the right thing: Abandon Trump, reject Trumpism, and rediscover the nation's founding principles.

    If one examines the exit polls last night, two messages are clear:

    1. "Health care policy" is now a Democratic Party strength. Republican failure to come up with a coherent policy that would represent an improvement over current law combined with a reckless willingness to pursue defective bills that would have, among other things, risked millions of people losing their coverage, provided little or no premium relief, did not offer individual health purchasers the same tax treatment as employers, and masked a cynical bid to use the legislation as a vehicle to provide a low multiplier, extremely narrowly targeted tax cut, shattered Republican credibility on this issue. Once credibility is lost, it is very difficult to regain. Republicans who fail to heed the lesson of their health care debacle risk transforming the tax issue into a Democratic advantage as well. A 20% border adjustment excise tax that undermines supply chains and harms consumers, the reintroduction of "bracket creep," a politicized approach that targets taxpayers in so-called "blue states," and a plan that would result in tax hikes among many in all income groups by 2027 could bring about that outcome. For Republicans, the loss of what has long been among the Party's signature issues would be catastrophic.

    2. Trump-Bannon-Coulter alt-right, white nationalist, identity politics is not a winning approach. It has been repudiated. Voters knew what the President didn't: there were no "very fine people" among the white nationalists who descended on Charlottesville like a Biblical plague of locusts. Millennial, female, and college-educated voters recoiled from the politics of depraved division.

    Trumpism corrupts politically, economically, morally, and spiritually. Trumpist populism is a rejection of the nation's founding principles that embrace individual freedom, promote unity as opposed to "blood and soil" balkanization, and are anchored in truth. The political leaders who drank from the poisoned chalice of Trumpism paid a price yesterday.

    Republicans now have a fateful choice before them. They can dissociate from President Trump, abandon the Trumpist populist agenda, rediscover the nation's founding principles, and devise policy solutions based on those principles for the 21st century context or they can stand with President Trump and Trumpism. If so, they will face electoral disaster in 2018 and risk the destruction of both the Republican Party as a nationally viable political party and the American conservative movement as a relevant national movement. The former course offers the possibility of political redemption. The latter leads to political damnation.

    What choice will Republicans make? Will conservatives break free from the pull of toxic Trumpism?

    For now, in Maine, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia, among other places, there is the rubble from 2017's political earthquake. A political tsunami watch has been posted for 2018. Whether such a tsunami occurs is still a matter of choice for Republicans, but the time for choosing is fast diminishing. At some point, the latitude for choice will disappear altogether. Then, a political tsunami will become inevitable and unstoppable. In its wake, control of one or both Houses of Congress could be lost and there is even a risk that the nation could no longer have a viable right-of-center political party.
    As the anger with Trump only grows each month and we can expect it to get much more intense going into 2018, next years elections are shaping up to be a true wave election. Trump and the GOP should be very very afraid.
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    Re: 2017 Political Earthquake, 2018 Political Tsunami?

    Excellent essay. I don't think the Republicans will reject Trumpism before 2018, but after the tsunami hits they will learn. The real test will be in 2020.
    The GOP will recover as the Dems recovered after Reagan. Especially after the Dems are in office awhile.

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    Re: 2017 Political Earthquake, 2018 Political Tsunami?

    Quote Originally Posted by CletusWilbury View Post
    Excellent essay. I don't think the Republicans will reject Trumpism before 2018, but after the tsunami hits they will learn. The real test will be in 2020.
    The GOP will recover as the Dems recovered after Reagan. Especially after the Dems are in office awhile.
    This was the part of the OP essay I thought really hit the nail on the head


    Trumpism corrupts politically, economically, morally, and spiritually. Trumpist populism is a rejection of the nation's founding principles that embrace individual freedom, promote unity as opposed to "blood and soil" balkanization, and are anchored in truth. The political leaders who drank from the poisoned chalice of Trumpism paid a price yesterday.
    That just sums Trump up perfectly.
    One interesting thing emerged last night: Donald Trump unites the Democrats the same way that Barack Obama untied t he GOP after the first Obama election. That hatred of Obama was enough to serve as the platform for big GOP wins over the next several years in many election although they could not get Obama himself out.

    Outright hatred and loathing of Trump on the left unites the Democrat Party and last night it provided big wins in many places.

    If Trump continues to slide - and there is nothing on the horizon to say otherwise - 2018 could be a major wave election.
    __________________________________________________ _
    There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.... John Rogers

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    Re: 2017 Political Earthquake, 2018 Political Tsunami?

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    This was the part of the OP essay I thought really hit the nail on the head




    That just sums Trump up perfectly.
    One interesting thing emerged last night: Donald Trump unites the Democrats the same way that Barack Obama untied t he GOP after the first Obama election. That hatred of Obama was enough to serve as the platform for big GOP wins over the next several years in many election although they could not get Obama himself out.

    Outright hatred and loathing of Trump on the left unites the Democrat Party and last night it provided big wins in many places.

    If Trump continues to slide - and there is nothing on the horizon to say otherwise - 2018 could be a major wave election.
    Thank's for quoting that from the OP, I speed read over the second sentence.

    Yes, opposition is easy and governing is hard. The Dems learned that during Obama and will find that out again when they are in power. The long history of politics.

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    Re: 2017 Political Earthquake, 2018 Political Tsunami?

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    When historians look back at 2017, they may well record that 2017 was the year the nation awakened from Trumpism. In starkly clear terms, exit polls in such states as New Jersey and Virginia revealed that the elections up and down the ballot were referenda on Trumpism. Up and down the ballots, the voters rejected Trumpism.

    Depending what course the Republican Party takes, the 2017 election may also prove to be the cataclysmic earthquake that unleashed a political tsunami in 2018 that swept control of the House and even Senate away from the Republican Party. "May" is the operative word, as even in their weakened position, Republicans still have the strategic flexibility to do the right thing: Abandon Trump, reject Trumpism, and rediscover the nation's founding principles.

    If one examines the exit polls last night, two messages are clear:

    1. "Health care policy" is now a Democratic Party strength. Republican failure to come up with a coherent policy that would represent an improvement over current law combined with a reckless willingness to pursue defective bills that would have, among other things, risked millions of people losing their coverage, provided little or no premium relief, did not offer individual health purchasers the same tax treatment as employers, and masked a cynical bid to use the legislation as a vehicle to provide a low multiplier, extremely narrowly targeted tax cut, shattered Republican credibility on this issue. Once credibility is lost, it is very difficult to regain. Republicans who fail to heed the lesson of their health care debacle risk transforming the tax issue into a Democratic advantage as well. A 20% border adjustment excise tax that undermines supply chains and harms consumers, the reintroduction of "bracket creep," a politicized approach that targets taxpayers in so-called "blue states," and a plan that would result in tax hikes among many in all income groups by 2027 could bring about that outcome. For Republicans, the loss of what has long been among the Party's signature issues would be catastrophic.


    What choice will Republicans make? Will conservatives break free from the pull of toxic Trumpism?

    For now, in Maine, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia, among other places, there is the rubble from 2017's political earthquake. A political tsunami watch has been posted for 2018. Whether such a tsunami occurs is still a matter of choice for Republicans, but the time for choosing is fast diminishing. At some point, the latitude for choice will disappear altogether. Then, a political tsunami will become inevitable and unstoppable. In its wake, control of one or both Houses of Congress could be lost and there is even a risk that the nation could no longer have a viable right-of-center political party.
    I'd say keep tuned in. Many factors, number indicate huge Democratic gains in the midterms. Generic congressional polls give the Democratic generic candidates an 8-10 edge. Trump's approval rating is at 38%, historic low, party affiliation and identification favors the democrats today by a 31-24 margin. Most Americans think this country is headed in the wrong direction. Many more categories and figures tend to favor the democrats. That is as of today. The midterms are a year a way.

    If the economy is booming, all those numbers could change drastically. A chance major event might even unify the country behind Trump and the Republicans much like 9-11 did for Bush and his party. One never knows. Keep in mind that in December of 2009 all the numbers were looking good for the Democrats. The generic congressional poll gave the Dems a 5 point advantage, Obama's approval was riding high at 55% and so on. Six months later the Republicans had gained a 6 point advantage in the congressional generic poll, Obama's approval numbers dropped to 43% and the GOP went on to gain 63 House seats.

    Now isn't the time to crow, six months from now, yes. But not now, things can change and always do. Going by the numbers, I would say if the election was held today the Democrats would gain 30 plus seats in the House, take control. Gain one in the senate, but the senate would remain under GOP control. Now the midterms aren't today, they are a year away. Anything can happen between now and then, it usually does.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: 2017 Political Earthquake, 2018 Political Tsunami?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jesse Booth View Post
    It's incredible what the Democrats can accomplish when they don't have a neoconservative Presidential candidate as their face. This is what 2016 would have looked like if practically anyone other than Hillary had run against Trump.

    ...Man, I really hope the Republicans can get their **** together. If we thought a two-party system was chock full of issues...
    Hillary was the worst possible candidate for us Dems. I blame NY Dems for nominating her for Senate and continuing the Clinton nightmare. I'm talking about her husband's philandering. I must also blame myself for voting for her in the CA primary.
    I have a question for libertarians, what's with your position on the abortion issue? (See Rand Paul) You used to with us that a prohibition would be government intrusion. Perhaps science will soon give us an answer, then the GOP could move towards principled libertarian?
    And, weren't the libertarians for free trade? That's another issue I thought we were in alliance.

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    Re: 2017 Political Earthquake, 2018 Political Tsunami?

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post

    If the economy is booming, all those numbers could change drastically.
    I doubt it. The economy is doing well - and almost everybody concedes that started under Obama and continued under Obama so Trump can be President during a good economy but the credit will not be given to him.
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    Re: 2017 Political Earthquake, 2018 Political Tsunami?

    DON!! Jesus have I missed you.

    I wish my mind was giving me something more coherent and deserving in response to this analysis, but all I'm getting is that I very much agree we are not at the height of the storm yet. 2016 was a stage. 2017 was foreplay. 2018... frankly, I'm scared.

    I really hope the Republicans can pull it together and come to their senses. Whether anyone here believes me or not, I don't want to see American conservatism die. Especially not at the hands of something as despicable as white nationalism, or as purposeless as a simple total lack of political coherency.

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