POTUS Election State Poll were "Historically BAD"

State polls, meanwhile, had a “historically bad year,” the report says. The average error was the largest recorded since 2000, with Clinton’s support overstated.

Polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin -- all states won by Trump -- were especially problematic because many forecasters and political analysts considered them to be a Democratic firewall that would assure Clinton’s victory.

“There is evidence of real late change in voter preferences in Trump’s favor in the last week or so of the campaign, especially in the states where Trump won narrowly,” the report says.

The educational attainment of poll participants often didn’t get enough attention, the committee found. “Some pollsters – especially state-level pollsters – did not adjust for education in their weighting, even though college graduates were over-represented in their surveys,” the report says. “This led to under-estimating support for Trump.”

The report, citing “shrinking budgets at news outlets,” suggests that the national polling-standards group might consider trying to organize financing for higher quality state-level polls in future presidential elections.

“There is no reason to believe that this problem is going to fix itself,” the report says. “Collectively, well-resourced survey organizations might have enough common interest in financing some high quality state-level polls to reduce the likelihood of another black eye for the profession.”

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