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Trump Land vs the Clinton Archipelago

There are tons of stats on this:

https://stateimpact.npr.org/new-ham...-rural-ones-and-new-englands-a-case-in-point/

And its not just true here, its true everywhere:

https://www.oecd.org/swac/events/49008457.pdf

Think about it, why do people move to urban areas? Its for the money and opportunities. I grew up in rural Arkansas, I moved to the KC area 17 years ago because of the jobs and income opportunities. Of the people that i grew up with, the ones that are doing well economically are almost all the ones that moved to a city, the ones that are hardly getting by didn't.

A full 84% of GDP in the United States is generated in our urban centers.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...uJGUVyHfwNJyt4UVw&sig2=7jBlYwzzZQjjOYCh4UyDwQ

Thank you. The first link is broken, the 2nd link's discussion of agglomeration is interesting, even if a bit dull. The third link is your best but while certainly the most government spending takes place in urban areas which is one feature that makes them urban, I can't help but wonder how GDP is calculates the actual economic aspect of imports and exports from the wide open spaces where farming, oil extraction and other natural resources are gathered. It is easier to just apply the economic functions of ExxonMobil to Irving, TX than it would be to allocated all that activity to the various properties of XOM throughout the US. Obviously that would be extremely time consuming to do that everywhere, that is why the smaller the area, the more skeptical I am of GDP numbers.

As for your point about the maps, 1 vote in rural Illinois counts just the same as a vote in Chicago. It is each states demographic dynamic that plays itself out. I am in the suburbs of Philadelphia. Pennsylvania is has 3 big areas: Philadelphia, Pittsburg, the collar counties of Philadelphia and then moderate and smaller counties scattered throughout the state. Just calling a place a city and rolling it up into urban vs rural doesn't work well in my state when it comes to politics. The Democrat strategy is to turn out the vote in the 3 big areas above in an attempt to overcome the vote in basically all the other areas. That is pretty much the only places Hillary went during the campaign. Trump went more to the smaller areas like Scranton and Lancaster. The map supports this because while she won those areas she was targeting, she did not win by enough.
 
I did not vote for Trump and I have no interest in hyping his success, but I think you're missing the important thing. He is refashioning the Repubs in a way that threatens to tear off chunks of the Dems' coalition.

I think the problem the Democrats have is that they depend upon huge turnout in their key areas (urban areas) and lose if they don't get that huge turnout. That has been their problem for a couple of decades now, not just 2016.
 
I keep seeing these maps brought out by conservatives like it is some big virtue that Trump won more land area. Honestly I don't see any virtue out of winning more land, than the fact that I generally agree with the people there. Or at least I did until they voted for Trump.

Honestly, I think it's because you have bought into the "land area" narrative in terms of how to view this. And I can't blame you, because it's become so consistent that people...sadly on both sides...don't actually even take 3 seconds to give it some kind of honest analysis to understand what it's ACTUALLY showing.

It's not land area, it's communities. This "land area" aren't just hollow bits of earth that are devoid of all life, yet are somehow reaching out to give their support. These are hamlets, villages, towns, and small cities that are spread throughout this country. In our home state , this is things like...Woodstock, Bluefield, Big Stone gap, Marion, Galax, Bridgewater, Bedford, Strasburg, Ashland, Vinton, Farmville, Fincastle, Pulaski, Purcellville, Wise, and others. Various little communities dotted throughout the rural and semi-rural areas of this country that aren't within the metropolitan gravitational pull of the major cities in this nation.

Now there's a legitimate and reasonable conversation to have regarding how much concern to give to all these various communities dispersed across this nation comparative to the major population centers, but let's start pretending that this is some kind of discussion of "Land mass" vs "people" because that's not what this is representing; it's what propaganda and narrative has deluded people, on both sides, into thinking it's about.
 
Honestly, I think it's because you have bought into the "land area" narrative in terms of how to view this. And I can't blame you, because it's become so consistent that people...sadly on both sides...don't actually even take 3 seconds to give it some kind of honest analysis to understand what it's ACTUALLY showing.

It's not land area, it's communities. This "land area" aren't just hollow bits of earth that are devoid of all life, yet are somehow reaching out to give their support. These are hamlets, villages, towns, and small cities that are spread throughout this country. In our home state , this is things like...Woodstock, Bluefield, Big Stone gap, Marion, Galax, Bridgewater, Bedford, Strasburg, Ashland, Vinton, Farmville, Fincastle, Pulaski, Purcellville, Wise, and others. Various little communities dotted throughout the rural and semi-rural areas of this country that aren't within the metropolitan gravitational pull of the major cities in this nation.

Now there's a legitimate and reasonable conversation to have regarding how much concern to give to all these various communities dispersed across this nation comparative to the major population centers, but let's start pretending that this is some kind of discussion of "Land mass" vs "people" because that's not what this is representing; it's what propaganda and narrative has deluded people, on both sides, into thinking it's about.

I'm so happy that some people live there; however, exponentially more people live in, say, Chicago or Los Angeles. I don't give a dead dog's dick how many counties Trump won, when more people voted against him in those little tiny blue dots. Because people actually live there.
 
I'm so happy that some people live there; however, exponentially more people live in, say, Chicago or Los Angeles. I don't give a dead dog's dick how many counties Trump won, when more people voted against him in those little tiny blue dots. Because people actually live there.

People actually live in the other places as well. If you want to debate the merits of one or the other, my argument is laid out clearly in the link that's placed there. My point was simply that trying to present it simply as "land mass" is a poor representation of what's occurring there.
 
People actually live in the other places as well. If you want to debate the merits of one or the other, my argument is laid out clearly in the link that's placed there. My point was simply that trying to present it simply as "land mass" is a poor representation of what's occurring there.

However, that is the exact representation of the whole "Trump won X number of counties." Good for Trump. He also lost the popular vote by three ****ing million.
 
Honestly, I think it's because you have bought into the "land area" narrative in terms of how to view this. And I can't blame you, because it's become so consistent that people...sadly on both sides...don't actually even take 3 seconds to give it some kind of honest analysis to understand what it's ACTUALLY showing.

It's not land area, it's communities. This "land area" aren't just hollow bits of earth that are devoid of all life, yet are somehow reaching out to give their support. These are hamlets, villages, towns, and small cities that are spread throughout this country. In our home state , this is things like...Woodstock, Bluefield, Big Stone gap, Marion, Galax, Bridgewater, Bedford, Strasburg, Ashland, Vinton, Farmville, Fincastle, Pulaski, Purcellville, Wise, and others. Various little communities dotted throughout the rural and semi-rural areas of this country that aren't within the metropolitan gravitational pull of the major cities in this nation.

Now there's a legitimate and reasonable conversation to have regarding how much concern to give to all these various communities dispersed across this nation comparative to the major population centers, but let's start pretending that this is some kind of discussion of "Land mass" vs "people" because that's not what this is representing; it's what propaganda and narrative has deluded people, on both sides, into thinking it's about.

I read through your well written posts on the other threads and I think you're right that I was being dismissive of these as only land mass vs people. You are right that there is more to that.

But overall, I'm still unpersuaded. The fact that Trump carried so many more communities than Clinton is more tangible of an idea than land area, but I still don't think it's enough to change my view point. These small communities being dictated to by big cities is something I'm familiar with, living so near southern Illinois, which has little to no power in statewide elections because of Chicago. But I'm not seeing as that being any less fair than the small towns and rural areas of Missouri having a proportionate amount of power over St. Louis and Kansas City.

If the electoral college were abolished for instance, I think you're right that the small towns in Virginia and other competitive states would see fewer campaign rallies and have less influence over the election. I am unconvinced, however, that small towns and rural areas would have less influence in the election overall. These areas still have somewhere between 30-40% of our people and I don't see a candidate writing them off. Candidates would still hold rallies in small working towns, but instead of limiting them to competitive areas, they'd be able to hold them in states who's major cities and small towns alike are completely ignored under the current system. Because it is a little harder to reach some areas than it is cities, I'm sure there would be some disproportionate weight given to major cities, but I don't think it would outweigh the disenfranchisement under the current system.

Over the last 3 months of the election there were multiple campaign stops by either side in just 15 states. Eyeballing it, the 35 states that Hillary and Trump decided did not need to be catered to in any way, are over 70% of our population. All because campaign analysts can predict which states have enough swing votes to shift the state. And I think this is a problem. Iowa's farmers that get catered to every election, are different than Nebraska's, Kansas', and the Dakotas. But every election it's Iowa that gets all of the campaign stops. Colorado and Nevada have different needs than the other Mountain West states. And the problems of the West Coast states are ignored because both candidates know they will invariably back the Democrat. I think, overall, this is a bigger problem than would be caused by going to the popular vote.

That said, I'm still, not sure I'm against the electoral college overall. The fact that our system of government involves 50 sovereign states is the argument I find most persuasive toward keeping it. Not allowing a sovereign territory the right to decide how to wield its influence in electing the Chief Executive, does not seem right to me.
 
These small communities being dictated to by big cities is something I'm familiar with, living so near southern Illinois, which has little to no power in statewide elections because of Chicago. But I'm not seeing as that being any less fair than the small towns and rural areas of Missouri having a proportionate amount of power over St. Louis and Kansas City.

But that is precisely why we have a hybrid system. EITHER thing is unfair if applied in some kind of universal sense, so our system actually allows for instances where BOTH sides can exert their power.

On a STATE level, major population centers are given greater power. Why? Because a state is a pure majority rule entity. So there is a significant increase in the ability for individual population centers to swing the entire state. HOWEVER, due to the realities of the electoral college on a NATIONAL scale, there still presents incentive to reach out to those small communities throughout the country.

If you JUST did things community by community, then it would give WAY too much power to the small, disparate towns and small cities that cover this country.

If you JUST did things by the pure individual, then it would give WAY too much power to the major population grouping city centers that are spread across the edges of the country.

We've got a system that allows for a legitimate push and pull between them both. Does it lead to situations at times where one side or another feels disenfranchised? Yes, because peoples natural reaction to losing often times is to assume the system is just rigged against them. But in reality, it strikes a FAR better balance between the two.

Candidates would still hold rallies in small working towns, but instead of limiting them to competitive areas, they'd be able to hold them in states who's major cities and small towns alike are completely ignored under the current system. Because it is a little harder to reach some areas than it is cities, I'm sure there would be some disproportionate weight given to major cities, but I don't think it would outweigh the disenfranchisement under the current system.

Here we're just going to likely disagree. The cost/benefit logistics is just unrealistic to assume what you describe would actually happen. 14% of the population are not in a Metropolitan Statistical Area, meaning they're likely widely dispersed across locations. Sure, you could try to visit those places, but a cost/benefit notion it would be beyond foolish. Any given stop is going to net you what? Dozens to hundreds of potential voters if that? Yet it's taking travel expenses, travel time, and rally time. And because they're disparately spread across the country, going from one to another is incredibly inefficient. Especially when you take into account the population differences. A .05% shift in a place like the New York Metro area could garner you more votes than spread across multiple small towns, for likely a fraction of the time and cost of outreach.


I think, overall, this is a bigger problem than would be caused by going to the popular vote.

I understand your point here, but I simply disagree with your assertion that going with the straight popular vote would somehow actually make this less of a problem. These places aren't visited because the results are largely assumed, and I don't think that'd change in many ways. The population numbers are not enough that, by going to the popular vote, it would be incentive to spend a ton of time in these places, with perhaps the exception being California simply because of it's population size.

Not allowing a sovereign territory the right to decide how to wield its influence in electing the Chief Executive, does not seem right to me.

I don't have an issue with a state deciding how it wants to assign its electors. I may have issues if I was living there in terms of specifics, but I don't have an issue in theory. If they want it to go to their popular vote winner, fine. If they want it to go to the national popular vote winner, fine (I think that's incredibly disenfranchising for their own state, but they should be free to make that choice if they want). If they want to divide it by district, I'm fine with that. If they want to do it by percentage, I'm fine. I agree, states should decide how they wish to have their electors function. But I think the elector method should stay in place.
 
Something people need to remember is that people do travel, and the culture over vast stretches of the country are going to feel like the majority way of life even if the alternative culture on much smaller tracks of land actually have more people on them so by number of votes is the majority opinion. THis is one big reason why the Clinton advantage in votes means so little to people who like Trump (that and there seems to be a lot of non citizens voting in some of these D ZONES). This is also why "take America back" has resonated so well.

The response from the D's here "YOU'RE WRONG" will not do, it is insulting, and the Trump Army tend to know in our bones that we are not wrong.
 
Ask and ye shall receive. A poster said it would be good to see data in support of the statement Clinton won more counties that contribute to GDP than Trump won vis-a-vis GDP.

Voila.

Hillary Clinton, counting by counties of the USA won 64% of the USA economy. Trump counties -- the whole swarm of 'em by any color -- put in 36% of GDP.

Here it is, a red-blue electoral map of the USA, by county GDP



Donald Trump lost most of the American economy in this election



imrs.php



From the WoPo article on the Brookings findings....


According to the Brookings analysis, the less-than-500 counties that Clinton won nationwide combined to generate 64 percent of America's economic activity in 2015. The more-than-2,600 counties that Trump won combined to generate 36 percent of the country's economic activity last year.

Clinton, in other words, carried nearly two-thirds of the American economy.

Here's how the researchers, at the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program, visualized that. You can see immediately what's going on: WITH the exceptions of the Phoenix and Fort Worth areas, and a big chunk of Long Island, Clinton won every large-sized economic county in the country.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...this-election/


Another poster articulated the concerns very well in a quick survey fashion. I can only add to that by saying Trump appeals to his base only, the 36% GDP vote. Trump shuts out the 64% or any significant part of it and USA is going to be in a precarious position.
 
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Honestly, I think it's because you have bought into the "land area" narrative in terms of how to view this. And I can't blame you, because it's become so consistent that people...sadly on both sides...don't actually even take 3 seconds to give it some kind of honest analysis to understand what it's ACTUALLY showing.

It's not land area, it's communities. This "land area" aren't just hollow bits of earth that are devoid of all life, yet are somehow reaching out to give their support. These are hamlets, villages, towns, and small cities that are spread throughout this country. In our home state , this is things like...Woodstock, Bluefield, Big Stone gap, Marion, Galax, Bridgewater, Bedford, Strasburg, Ashland, Vinton, Farmville, Fincastle, Pulaski, Purcellville, Wise, and others. Various little communities dotted throughout the rural and semi-rural areas of this country that aren't within the metropolitan gravitational pull of the major cities in this nation.

Now there's a legitimate and reasonable conversation to have regarding how much concern to give to all these various communities dispersed across this nation comparative to the major population centers, but let's start pretending that this is some kind of discussion of "Land mass" vs "people" because that's not what this is representing; it's what propaganda and narrative has deluded people, on both sides, into thinking it's about.



Mark Newman who's a physics prof a UMichigan resized each red or blue county regardless of its land dimensions to reflect its vote by population. It shows how the Democrat for Potus has won the popular vote in six of the past seven elections of Potus.


Here's what the US electoral map looks like adjusted for population


cr



The standard linear red-blue electoral college map of the states does make Potus elections look every time like the Republican for Potus in every quadrennial election owns the country.

The fact is there are many maps to document and to reflect the actual county by county vote in each state and nationally. The above map is one of 'em and it is one that informs us significantly of real life voting in communities of all sizes that we did not ordinarily know of before the map was conceived and produced.



Here's the 2016 election results map adjusted for population - Business Insider
 
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Ask and ye shall receive. A poster said it would be good to see data in support of the statement Clinton won more counties that contribute to GDP than Trump won vis-a-vis GDP.

Voila.

Hillary Clinton, counting by counties of the USA won 64% of the USA economy. Trump counties -- the whole swarm of 'em by any color -- put in 36% of GDP.

Here it is, a red-blue electoral map of the USA, by county GDP



Donald Trump lost most of the American economy in this election



imrs.php



From the WoPo article on the Brookings findings....


According to the Brookings analysis, the less-than-500 counties that Clinton won nationwide combined to generate 64 percent of America's economic activity in 2015. The more-than-2,600 counties that Trump won combined to generate 36 percent of the country's economic activity last year.

Clinton, in other words, carried nearly two-thirds of the American economy.

Here's how the researchers, at the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program, visualized that. You can see immediately what's going on: WITH the exceptions of the Phoenix and Fort Worth areas, and a big chunk of Long Island, Clinton won every large-sized economic county in the country.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...this-election/


Another poster articulated the concerns very well in a quick survey fashion. I can only add to that by saying Trump appeals to his base only, the 36% GDP vote. Trump shuts out the 64% or any significant part of it and USA is going to be in a precarious position.

Lucky for us the right to vote is not tied to wealth or income.
 
Lucky for us the right to vote is not tied to wealth or income.



It is not completely untied to it or at the least affect by it. So it could seem stating the obvious might well be nothing more than dropping a platitude.

Right to vote might be another thread topic that could focus on Republican party systematic and designed voter supression campaigns.


Then there's Citizens United which for instance confirmed previous Scotus rulings that money is included in the First Amendment meaning of the right and privilege to free speech. We know this presents the wealthiest of each political party with more free speech than I have, to include the many billionaires of the rightwing ideology.

The hit and run one-liner of the post does raise the issue of whether Potus Trump might mess with the Blue Counties that produce 64% of GDP. Trump won counties that chip in only 36% of GDP and Trump's focus since his day one has been on his base only, represented in this post...

Ma and Pa Kettle
american-gothic.jpg


Trump btw wants another General Patton while I want another General Sherman. (Sherman could start in northern VA then proceed from there.)
 
It is not completely untied to it or at the least affect by it. So it could seem stating the obvious might well be nothing more than dropping a platitude.

Right to vote might be another thread topic that could focus on Republican party systematic and designed voter supression campaigns.


Then there's Citizens United which for instance confirmed previous Scotus rulings that money is included in the First Amendment meaning of the right and privilege to free speech. We know this presents the wealthiest of each political party with more free speech than I have, to include the many billionaires of the rightwing ideology.

The hit and run one-liner of the post does raise the issue of whether Potus Trump might mess with the Blue Counties that produce 64% of GDP. Trump won counties that chip in only 36% of GDP and Trump's focus since his day one has been on his base only, represented in this post...

Ma and Pa Kettle
View attachment 67211464


Trump btw wants another General Patton while I want another General Sherman. (Sherman could start in northern VA then proceed from there.)

We share at least one affinity. I am an admirer of Sherman. I own a first edition of his memoirs and a shelf of other books about him. A photographic portrait of him has hung in my office for years.
 
We share at least one affinity. I am an admirer of Sherman. I own a first edition of his memoirs and a shelf of other books about him. A photographic portrait of him has hung in my office for years.


As only a couple of people present would know Lincoln won reelection on the strength of the vote by members of the Union Army, absent coercion of course. Lincoln had narrow Popular Vote wins in several states, so it could have gone to the wimp McClellan.

The Grant-Sherman-Lincoln winning strategy of total war against the Confederacy then the Native Nations continued successfully, thru to 1945, when we destroyed global fascism. U.S. military strategy the 70 years since then has necessarily been radically different. Also dismal, to be polite in the choice of a word. Good on Potus Grant that Gen. Sherman concluded his career as Army General-in-Chief (Chief of Staff). Two peas in a pod they were, mad drunks (and failed businessmen) who won a century war for the good guys.

One suspects if Sherman were around today he'd be sitting at the right hand of the Commander in Chief Elect. (Perhaps Sherman -- with an American Army -- could have invade Russia to succeed where Napoleon then Hitler failed.)
 
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