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Senate Trial Commentary

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Rexedgar

Rexedgar

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Pat Cippilone is, imo, the weak link in the WH defense team. Weak delivery and lying from the start.
 
Sekelow is using the “poor Trump” defense.
 
Why they decided to mount Trump's defense on a Saturday when people are out having fun is beyond me.

Maybe it's so they can dominate the Sunday morning news shows.
 
eman623 said:
Why they decided to mount Trump's defense on a Saturday when people are out having fun is beyond me.

Maybe it's so they can dominate the Sunday morning news shows.
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It's irrelevant at this stage anyway.

Hopefully those cowardly GOP senators who vote to acquit are providing electoral ammunition for November and beyond.
 
Rich2018 said:
It's irrelevant at this stage anyway.

Hopefully those cowardly GOP senators who vote to acquit are providing electoral ammunition for November and beyond.
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A plurality of Americans oppose the impeachment, so I think they'll be fine.
 
Rich2018 said:
Hopefully those cowardly GOP senators who vote to acquit are providing electoral ammunition for November and beyond.
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From your keyboard to God's ear!
 
eman623 said:
I mean more than the number who want him impeached.
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Not according to polls I've seen.


Where do you get more Americans oppose impeachment than want Trump impeached ?

And by "impeached" do you mean removed from power ?
 
Rich2018 said:
Not according to polls I've seen.


Where do you get more Americans oppose impeachment than want Trump impeached ?

And by "impeached" do you mean removed from power ?
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Fivethirtyeight has been tracking that specific question for some time. A majority of those polls indicate that a near majority prefers removal, by about a 3% margin. Note: those polls do not reflect opinions since the House's presentation this week. The preference for impeachment was higher, 5%, and was a clear majority.
What The Latest Polling On Trump’s Removal Does (And Doesn’t) Mean (Fivethirtyeight). None of this is really all that surprising. Trump has never, to my knowledge, had a positive approval rating.
 
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NWRatCon said:
Fivethirtyeight has been tracking that specific question for some time. A majority of those polls indicate that a near majority prefers removal, by about a 3% margin. Note: those polls do not reflect opinions since the House's presentation this week. The preference for impeachment was higher, 5%, and was a clear majority.
What The Latest Polling On Trump’s Removal Does (And Doesn’t) Mean (Fivethirtyeight). None of this is really all that surprising. Trump has never, to my knowledge, had a positive approval rating.
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The latest Fox poll puts the number of those polled, wanting conviction at 50%, with 44% against.


Fox News Poll: Record economy ratings, as half say Senate should remove Trump | Fox News
 
eman623 said:
Both impeachment and removal. Currently the RCP aggregate is running about "No +0.6%".

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Trump Impeachment and Removal From Office: Support/Oppose
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That Gallup poll seems out of line with the rest.

Strange how Fox's poll results show a majority for removal.


"Fifty percent told Fox News that Trump should be convicted and removed and 44% said he should not. Registered voters' impeachment opinions largely fell along party lines, with 81% of Democrats favoring the president's removal and 84% of Republicans opposing it. Independents said Trump should be removed by a nearly 20-point margin, with 53% in favor of conviction and 34% opposed..."




Trump impeachment: Most independents want Trump removed, Fox poll says
 
Rich2018 said:
That Gallup poll seems out of line with the rest.
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The Gallup poll is from the start of January. And It's a point lower than the ABC poll which is the most recent one.

Statistically all these polls are within the margin of error. Aggregating reduces the uncertainty somewhat but a 0.6 difference means, in practical terms, it's a coin flip whether a majority of Americans want the president removed or not. The most you can say is that there's no broad consensus either way.

We'll have to see what happens to that after the Trump defense is presented. Will it sway anyone? The margin went from "No +0.9%" on Monday to "No +0.6%" on Saturday. To whatever extent the house managers pulled that margin in, we might expect the Trump defense to pull them back an approximate amount.
 
all of the polls are within a few points of each other

highest is at 55% to remove....lowest at 48% that i have seen

and all somewhat within the "margin of error"

some will claim 55% is a HUGE majority....it isnt

basically half want him gone, half dont

he will be exonerated....and then come November, we will see just how this really turned out for the democrats
 
eman623 said:
We'll have to see what happens to that after the Trump defense is presented. Will it sway anyone? The margin went from "No +0.9%" on Monday to "No +0.6%" on Saturday. To whatever extent the house managers pulled that margin in, we might expect the Trump defense to pull them back an approximate amount.
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I doubt it, I think the the attention span of most Americans has been breached. Trump's daily conduct is seemingly acceptable by many.

There was only ever a glimmer of hope that GOP senators would convict Trump - to be honest I don't think the evidence really matters.

I would just like to see enough GOP senators find a backbone and defy Trump so he can't claim some kind of victory.
 
Getting the Senate to do its job has always been a sisyphean task. When it is most closely divided, that task is harder. When it involves the party itself, nearly impossible. The odds of removal have always been impossible - 5 Senators is 10% of their (Republican) membership, and that's just to get a majority (assuming no Democratic defections). Removal would require 40% of their members' defection. That has never happened, to my knowledge.

I think, though, that when they fail to vote for additional evidence, along party lines, that will be a watershed moment (a string majority of voters want it). I believe that in 2021, the Senate will be narrowly Democratic. Remember, though, that Senate membership is stacked strongly in favor of Republicans (about a16% advantage), so a Democratic supermajority is extremely unlikely.
 
Rich2018 said:
There was only ever a glimmer of hope that GOP senators would convict Trump - to be honest I don't think the evidence really matters.

I would just like to see enough GOP senators find a backbone and defy Trump so he can't claim some kind of victory.
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At one point I foolishly thought there might be one or two defections (maybe Romney, maybe Murkowski), but even that is a long, long shot. McConnell has the ability to make any Senator's tenure nearly meaningless, and none of their egos can tolerate that. The best result for the country is to make McConnell's term end in 2021.
 
NWRatCon said:
Getting the Senate to do its job has always been a sisyphean task. When it is most closely divided, that task is harder. When it involves the party itself, nearly impossible. The odds of removal have always been impossible - 5 Senators is 10% of their (Republican) membership, and that's just to get a majority (assuming no Democratic defections). Removal would require 40% of their members' defection. That has never happened, to my knowledge.

I think, though, that when they fail to vote for additional evidence, along party lines, that will be a watershed moment (a string majority of voters want it). I believe that in 2021, the Senate will be narrowly Democratic. Remember, though, that Senate membership is stacked strongly in favor of Republicans (about a16% advantage), so a Democratic supermajority is extremely unlikely.
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It might have happened in Nixon's case.


However does an impeachment verdict along party lines (and obvious acquittal) harm or hinder the Democrats case in November ?
Before impeachment I said that it was a waste of time as Trump wouldn't be removed, but upon thinking about it, the Democrats had to do something as Trump's behavior is out of control.

Had they stood by and let Trump violate the law and abuse power, they could have been accused of not caring.

Now the guilty GOP senators and child like congressmen have been named...I think their support for Trump can be used against them.
 
NWRatCon said:
At one point I foolishly thought there might be one or two defections (maybe Romney, maybe Murkowski), but even that is a long, long shot. McConnell has the ability to make any Senator's tenure nearly meaningless, and none of their egos can tolerate that. The best result for the country is to make McConnell's term end in 2021.
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Totally agree, either vote him out of office or vote 50+ Democratic senators in.
 
Rich2018 said:
It might have happened in Nixon's case.


However does an impeachment verdict along party lines (and obvious acquittal) harm or hinder the Democrats case in November ?
Before impeachment I said that it was a waste of time as Trump wouldn't be removed, but upon thinking about it, the Democrats had to do something as Trump's behavior is out of control.

Had they stood by and let Trump violate the law and abuse power, they could have been accused of not caring.

Now the guilty GOP senators and child like congressmen have been named...I think their support for Trump can be used against them.
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I quite agree. Removing them AND Trump has to be the priority for 2020. But, Louie Gone-mert and King keep getting elected, so redistricting matters, too.
 
NWRatCon said:
My only correction would be - both.
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Either way, he's not the leader of the Senate and yes, it would be better if his seat was occupied by a Democrat.


I quite agree. Removing them AND Trump has to be the priority for 2020. But, Louie Gone-mert and King keep getting elected, so redistricting matters, too.
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I'd love to see a Democratic president elected this year (Sanders or Warren) and given the benefit of a Democrat majority in both houses, a benefit that sadly Obama was never able to enjoy.
 
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