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Back in late April the ADHS released a model developed by the “COVID-19 Modeling Working Group” (Authors: Tim Lant, PhD, MAS; Megan Jehn, PhD; Esma Gel, PhD; Anna Muldoon, MPH; Heather Ross PhD, DNP, ANP-BC and several researchers at the UA including Dr. Joe Gerald).
The team developed an Arizona-specific predictive model providing state-specific projections of new cases and deaths based on the best available science and Arizona case data. The most recent model run produced projected daily counts for infected individuals, ICU use, and deaths for five different scenarios. The state modeling team report also provides scenario-based estimates of resource needs for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators but doesn't include a capacity assessment. Very solid work being done by top talent in the field that is very useful for decision-making purposes.
Astonishingly, the ADHS sent a letter to the Working Group last night hours after the governor’s press conference telling them to stop their work, discontinue producing predictive models, and to return the data that the working group was given by the ADHS. Interestingly, the request came hours after the governor announced a relaxation of the Stay at Home Order.
The letter asking them to stop work didn’t provide any reason for the request except that it was at the direction of ADHS’ senior leadership.
The only remaining predictive model that the state health department is now using has been developed by FEMA. Neither that model nor the predictive modeling results from the FEMA model are publicly available.
Last night’s action to disband the Arizona COVID-19 Modeling Working Group begs the question of whether the Modeling Working Group was discontinued because they had been producing results that were inconsistent with messaging and decisions being made by the executive branch.
ADHS Suspends Arizona's COVID-19 Modeling Working Group — AZ Public Health Association
The team developed an Arizona-specific predictive model providing state-specific projections of new cases and deaths based on the best available science and Arizona case data. The most recent model run produced projected daily counts for infected individuals, ICU use, and deaths for five different scenarios. The state modeling team report also provides scenario-based estimates of resource needs for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators but doesn't include a capacity assessment. Very solid work being done by top talent in the field that is very useful for decision-making purposes.
Astonishingly, the ADHS sent a letter to the Working Group last night hours after the governor’s press conference telling them to stop their work, discontinue producing predictive models, and to return the data that the working group was given by the ADHS. Interestingly, the request came hours after the governor announced a relaxation of the Stay at Home Order.
The letter asking them to stop work didn’t provide any reason for the request except that it was at the direction of ADHS’ senior leadership.
The only remaining predictive model that the state health department is now using has been developed by FEMA. Neither that model nor the predictive modeling results from the FEMA model are publicly available.
Last night’s action to disband the Arizona COVID-19 Modeling Working Group begs the question of whether the Modeling Working Group was discontinued because they had been producing results that were inconsistent with messaging and decisions being made by the executive branch.
ADHS Suspends Arizona's COVID-19 Modeling Working Group — AZ Public Health Association