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Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.

HumblePi said:
The wall, the economy and tax cuts. That's what he ran on. The economy is strong, tax cuts happened as promised but it turned out that the majority of people didn't benefit from it, it created a $14 billion dollar deficit. Then there's the wall, the one Mexico would pay for. We can see, as conservatives can as well, that 3 out of his three main promises has been a miserable failure. What will he run on in 2020? He can't win the election running solely on a platform of white nationalism, that will only work with about 30% of the 54% of his loyal electorate. Unless he comes up with something substantial that will please the majority of his base, he can't win in 2020. But then, we don't know how much influence Russia will have in 2020. Russia has already been messing with the 2020 election by exploiting racial tensions and putting out mis-information propaganda against certain candidates on the internet.

I know Trump will have to use the healthy economy as his key talking point, but the 2020 election is a long way away in terms of how swiftly circumstances change here and the economy could take a downward turn if there's an increase in inflation and that would wipe out his main talking point. All lot of conservative voters aren't in agreement with his policy of splitting up families and child detention centers. And they are started to come to grips with the wall never becoming a reality. So, what's left to run on?
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You totally skipped over healthcare, which is the number one issue far a whole lot of Americans.

Trumps only answer to healthcare is to disassemble the ACA, with no replacement.

Remember how he promised everyone would be covered, how inexpensive and beautiful it would be.

Then he stated that as it turns out healthcare is complicated.

So bumping into a complicated situation he chose to ignore it and hope it goes away...
 
GDViking said:
You totally skipped over healthcare, which is the number one issue far a whole lot of Americans.

Trumps only answer to healthcare is to disassemble the ACA, with no replacement.

Remember how he promised everyone would be covered, how inexpensive and beautiful it would be.

Then he stated that as it turns out healthcare is complicated.

So bumping into a complicated situation he chose to ignore it and hope it goes away...
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The republican party, like it always has, wants to cut federal health care programs. They want to repeal the Affordable Care Act without having any idea how to replace it. They want to slash Medicaid. They want to shrink Medicare. Paul Ryan built his reputation of wanting to slash 'entitlements', although Medicare is a program that people pay into their entire working life in payroll taxes, so it's not really an entitlement. Republicans have spent the past 8 years trying to undermine and repeal the ACA even going so far as to want to eliminate the pre-existing clause which of course would be disastrous for millions of people. Democrats don't have to do anything to protect people with pre-existing conditions, they already did by passing the ACA.

When one looks at the bigger picture here, the government cutting of funding for federal programs that can't function when they're so poorly funded like most recently the Bureau of Prisons which has big internal problems. Other programs for example like the Education Dept., Energy Dept., Health and Human Services, etc. There are more than 60 federally funded programs that have been hollowed out with Trump's 2018 budget.

My question is, where is all that money that's not going to these vital agencies really going?
 
IMO 2020 is a bit early for Texas to really go "Full Blue."

More likely is that it will be hotly contested in 2020, and purple for another decade.

That said, if Texas does start voting heavily Democratic in Presidential elections, then Republicans are pretty much screwed in Presidential elections. Democrats could win by just taking the West Coast, Northeast and TX. They could lose Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and even Pennsylvania and still eke out an electoral college victory.

The wild card is how long the Republican party continues to double down on the Disgruntled Aging White Male Vote, and how extreme they get in their attempts to suppress minority votes. I for one think pursuing those tactics produces short-term electoral gains that, in the long run, will alienate the parts of the electorate that are growing.
 
HumblePi said:
My question is, where is all that money that's not going to these vital agencies really going?
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What money?

Almost all of federal spending goes to a handful of programs.

4-18-08taxf1.png
 
aociswundumho said:
I see, so Trump is a white nationalist whether he behaves like one or not.
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Except he does... his attacks on immigration has focused exclusively on nonwhite immigrants despite a very large portion of visa overstays (the majority of people here illegally) being white.
 
NeverTrump said:
Trump said he wouldn't forget about middle america, well middle america will remember what he said about them...


  • Citing Beto's election in the state
  • 4 GOP retiring and possibly others
  • John Cornyn's warnings and low 37% approval rating
  • Growing latinx population
  • Republican Infighting- Republican House Speaker Dennis Bonnen was caught on tape crudely insulting several lawmakers, while rattling off a “hit list” of insufficiently conservative Republicans he wanted to be taken out in primaries next year.
  • And President Trump's lackluster response to the mass shooting in TX and also calling El Paso the most dangerous city in tx reinvigorated Beto's campaign

Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.
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are you a betting man?

do you have a favorite charity?

how much can you afford to lose?
 
bomberfox said:
Except he does... his attacks on immigration has focused exclusively on nonwhite immigrants despite a very large portion of visa overstays (the majority of people here illegally) being white.
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I found this chart, which indicates the majority of visa overstays are from non-white countries. I'm counting Canada and European countries as white and the rest as non-white.
 
Luther said:
You didn't see how close that Cruz reelection was in 2018?

He won only by 3 points

This is Texas guy
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The Dems in Texas literally pulled out all the stops...gave it there all ...trying to get Robert O'Rourke elected and failed ......As a Texas native I can tell you most people here are very conservative by nature and when you look at how well the state is currently run and how well off we are... its very unlikely that a majority of the population will risk electing far left Dems......so in my opinion we are pretty safe on the red side of things.
 
NeverTrump said:
Trump said he wouldn't forget about middle america, well middle america will remember what he said about them...


  • Citing Beto's election in the state
  • 4 GOP retiring and possibly others
  • John Cornyn's warnings and low 37% approval rating
  • Growing latinx population
  • Republican Infighting- Republican House Speaker Dennis Bonnen was caught on tape crudely insulting several lawmakers, while rattling off a “hit list” of insufficiently conservative Republicans he wanted to be taken out in primaries next year.
  • And President Trump's lackluster response to the mass shooting in TX and also calling El Paso the most dangerous city in tx reinvigorated Beto's campaign

Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.
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It's unlikely due to poor turnout by Hispanics. But if they show up and the Democrats actually flip Texas, they will very likely take back the White House.
 
Lucky 1 said:
The Dems in Texas literally pulled out all the stops...gave it there all ...trying to get Robert O'Rourke elected and failed ......As a Texas native I can tell you most people here are very conservative by nature and when you look at how well the state is currently run and how well off we are... its very unlikely that a majority of the population will risk electing far left Dems......so in my opinion we are pretty safe on the red side of things.
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Does that mean you simultaneously live in every major city, every suburb of those major cities, and every rural area? :mrgreen:

I have no doubt there are lots of Texans who are conservative and/or Republican. However, there are also more and more who are not. Many of those blue-leaning voters live in the major cities and their suburbs, and on counties bordering Mexico. The minority population is rising, while the number of whites is basically the same. There are almost as many Hispanics now in Texas as whites. Texas is already a "minority majority" state.

Texas also has a lot of "new Texans" too. Roughly 80,000 people move from other states (including "Blue" states like CA and NY) to Texas; another 110,000 are international arrivals. Some native Texans are leaving as well.

The Senate race went from a 56/40% (R/D) split in 2012, to 51/48% in 2018. House races went from a 65/35% split to 52/46% split in 2018. That means nearly half of Texas voters chose a Democrat in 2018. The very fact that Beto was a serious contender, and came within 3% of Cruz, is actually huge.

I hate to break it to you, but Texas is not "safe" for Republicans much longer.
 
Sticking feather's up your butt does not make you a chicken.
 
haymarket said:
A Blue wave sweeping over Texas would be most welcome.
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Except by Texans. We still have not finished cleaning up the massive garbage leftovers from the out of state people behind betoe.

betoe.JPG
 
aociswundumho said:
I see, so Trump is a white nationalist whether he behaves like one or not.
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No, it's part of his Narcissistic Personality Disorder.

Sorta like his visit to El Paso to 'console' the city after the shooting, by bragging about the size of his crowds when he was there earlier.
 
Visbek said:
IMO 2020 is a bit early for Texas to really go "Full Blue."

More likely is that it will be hotly contested in 2020, and purple for another decade.

That said, if Texas does start voting heavily Democratic in Presidential elections, then Republicans are pretty much screwed in Presidential elections. Democrats could win by just taking the West Coast, Northeast and TX. They could lose Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and even Pennsylvania and still eke out an electoral college victory.

The wild card is how long the Republican party continues to double down on the Disgruntled Aging White Male Vote, and how extreme they get in their attempts to suppress minority votes. I for one think pursuing those tactics produces short-term electoral gains that, in the long run, will alienate the parts of the electorate that are growing.
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I don't see a full on 'blue wave' this election cycle either. Every election has been getting more and more competitive. I see some big gains in 2020 and continue on in the future.
 
NeverTrump said:
Trump said he wouldn't forget about middle america, well middle america will remember what he said about them...


  • Citing Beto's election in the state
  • 4 GOP retiring and possibly others
  • John Cornyn's warnings and low 37% approval rating
  • Growing latinx population
  • Republican Infighting- Republican House Speaker Dennis Bonnen was caught on tape crudely insulting several lawmakers, while rattling off a “hit list” of insufficiently conservative Republicans he wanted to be taken out in primaries next year.
  • And President Trump's lackluster response to the mass shooting in TX and also calling El Paso the most dangerous city in tx reinvigorated Beto's campaign

Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.
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Blue wave in Texas, I don't know. You do have this, Trump vs. several possible Democratic candidates.

RealClearPolitics - Texas General Election Polls

It's way too early to put much stock in this. But Trump has dropped in Texas from a 54/34 approval/disapproval rating on inauguration day to a 51/45 approval/disapproval in July 2019. Trump is still positive there although his disapproval has rose 11 points. I'd say Trump is likely to win Texas. I would put Texas in the competitive column yet, but it certainly could become so. He beat Clinton by 9 points there in 2016.

It would take the democrats to nominate the right candidate, not any candidate would do. Texas is an R+8 state which means Republicans outnumber Democrats there by 8 points. I personally think there's a better chance of the Democrats winning Georgia than Texas. Here Trump has dropped from a 53/35 approval/disapproval inauguration day down to a 49/47 approval/disapproval margin.

I'd have to see a lot more to think that a blue wave could happen in Texas. Georgia I think more likely.
 
Lucky 1 said:
The Dems in Texas literally pulled out all the stops...gave it there all ...trying to get Robert O'Rourke elected and failed ......As a Texas native I can tell you most people here are very conservative by nature and when you look at how well the state is currently run and how well off we are... its very unlikely that a majority of the population will risk electing far left Dems......so in my opinion we are pretty safe on the red side of things.
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.As a Texas native I can tell you most people here are very conservative by nature
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You're still not getting it?

Cruz won in 2012 by 15 points

Cruz won in 2018 by 3 points(Hello)

Yeah, this is supposed RED Texas
 
HumblePi said:
You hit the nail on the head. This movement towards nationalism - conservatism started a few decades ago with Ronald Reagan who created the conservative movement of “limited government, individual freedom and adherence to the Constitution.” Reagan solidified conservative Republican strength with tax cuts, increased defense spending, deregulation, a greatly strengthened military and appeals to family values and conservative Judeo-Christian morality. In recent years, social issues such as abortion, gun control and gay marriage have become important. The former Tea Party movement energized conservatives at the local level against the more liberal policies made by the presidency of Barack Obama. The nationalism-conservatism movement was a backlash against Barack Obama and liberalism resulting in the election of Trump who apes Ronald Reagan's ideologies. I suspect that sometime in the not too distant future, the pendulum will once again swing back to something more moderate and centrist.
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I couldn't agree more. The younger generations who are growing up in the technology age are better informed and politics to them seems to be more of a social issue than a who can grab the most money issue. If I were a kid today growing up in the age of mass shootings, politics would be more social to me too.
 
DarkWizard12 said:
That may not be true. Liberals tend to have a low birthrate, while the more conservative the people, the higher the birth rate. The US may become a more diverse nation, and therefore, a more liberal nation, but it will be far from a paradise and, in the end, it will be the conservative factions, with their higher birthrates, that will dominate the country in 200 years time.

The Amish population will double again in 20 years....and then double again, etc. etc. Why the Amish Population Is Exploding - CityLab
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Liberals tend to have a low birthrate, while the more conservative the people, the higher the birth rate
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And Hispanics are reproducing higher than them and they lean liberal(Obviously)
 
Luther said:
And Hispanics are reproducing higher than them and they lean liberal(Obviously)
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Not really. The mexican birthrate declines over generations, while the conservative birthrate is more consistent, depending on how far religious you go(nominally protestant groups have a declining birthrate as well, but anabaptists like the amish and mennonites grow exponentially). The (far) future of america is a religious population of america that does not believe in birth control on religious grounds.
 
NeverTrump said:
I've seen how Republicans have transformed over the past 20 years and it's puzzling where they can go from here. They usually try to go extreme right, but I'm not sure where else they can go at this point. They already support fraud, money launderers, pedophiles and racists etc...
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The right has always had the yawning black pit of fascism behind them, whispering and tempting them to absolute authoritarianism and bigotry. I don't expect them to finally go full far right, but if you want to look at the furthest right point, it ends up at the intersection of irrational nostalgia and tribalistic mass killings.
 
Perotista said:
Blue wave in Texas, I don't know. You do have this, Trump vs. several possible Democratic candidates.

RealClearPolitics - Texas General Election Polls

It's way too early to put much stock in this. But Trump has dropped in Texas from a 54/34 approval/disapproval rating on inauguration day to a 51/45 approval/disapproval in July 2019. Trump is still positive there although his disapproval has rose 11 points. I'd say Trump is likely to win Texas. I would put Texas in the competitive column yet, but it certainly could become so. He beat Clinton by 9 points there in 2016.

It would take the democrats to nominate the right candidate, not any candidate would do. Texas is an R+8 state which means Republicans outnumber Democrats there by 8 points. I personally think there's a better chance of the Democrats winning Georgia than Texas. Here Trump has dropped from a 53/35 approval/disapproval inauguration day down to a 49/47 approval/disapproval margin.

I'd have to see a lot more to think that a blue wave could happen in Texas. Georgia I think more likely.
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I don't know if anyone's told you this before, but thank you for constantly providing assessments of polling throughout the forum. You're providing a great service by grounding all of this speculation in solid numbers.
 
DarkWizard12 said:
Not really. The mexican birthrate declines over generations, while the conservative birthrate is more consistent, depending on how far religious you go(nominally protestant groups have a declining birthrate as well, but anabaptists like the amish and mennonites grow exponentially). The (far) future of america is a religious population of america that does not believe in birth control on religious grounds.
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The mexican birthrate declines over generations
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I said Hispanics

while the conservative birthrate is more consistent,
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Yeah, more consistently lower(wink)


but anabaptists like the amish and mennonites grow exponentially
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Don't you think it's the Mormons that are growing?


The (far) future of america is a religious population of america that does not believe in birth control on religious grounds.
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I'm not so sure about that

Liberalism is creeping into the Church. Not to mention that the church is declining?

Church Membership Has Dropped Sharply Over The Past 2 Decades: Gallup | HuffPost
 
Luther said:
I said Hispanics
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It still applies. the birthrate of latin countries, and migrants that come here, has declined drastically, that even the NYT has noticed it. The reason is because it's easier for them to practice safe sex in America. These home grown conservative religions, anabaptists, mormons, etc. Reject birth control out of principle.

I really do hate to use the bible in secular arguments, but I think there is a point of wisdom here. It says "you will know my people by their fruits". Well, what are the fruits of modern, secular society? Lower birthrates, more stressed, over-medicated populations. Gender dysphoria, 60%-70% of people(depending on the country) feel there is no meaning in life, in all the "progress" they talk about, will end with them once their lives are over. Go to religious areas, they have very many children, and increase every generation, with their traditions passing down every generation. You may win the culture wars, but the fruits of secular society will simply not last. These religious sects, derided on social media(and to be fair, they sometimes deserve) have stability, and are set for the very long term.

Yeah, more consistently lower(wink)
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Not what the data says. Anabaptists are having 6 kids per family on average, far above the national. More like, consistently higher. in 200 years, christians will be the only ones here.


Don't you think it's the Mormons that are growing?
Tradtional religious factions in general. Obvious, the general christian population(protestants, presbyterians, etc) show similar rates of population decline, but they're more reformed sects of Christianity.


I'm not so sure about that

Liberalism is creeping into the Church. Not to mention that the church is declining?

Church Membership Has Dropped Sharply Over The Past 2 Decades: Gallup | HuffPost
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DarkWizard12 said:
It still applies. the birthrate of latin countries, and migrants that come here, has declined drastically, that even the NYT has noticed it. The reason is because it's easier for them to practice safe sex in America. These home grown conservative religions, anabaptists, mormons, etc. Reject birth control out of principle.

I really do hate to use the bible in secular arguments, but I think there is a point of wisdom here. It says "you will know my people by their fruits". Well, what are the fruits of modern, secular society? Lower birthrates, more stressed, over-medicated populations. Gender dysphoria, 60%-70% of people(depending on the country) feel there is no meaning in life, in all the "progress" they talk about, will end with them once their lives are over. Go to religious areas, they have very many children, and increase every generation, with their traditions passing down every generation. You may win the culture wars, but the fruits of secular society will simply not last. These religious sects, derided on social media(and to be fair, they sometimes deserve) have stability, and are set for the very long term.


Not what the data says. Anabaptists are having 6 kids per family on average, far above the national. More like, consistently higher. in 200 years, christians will be the only ones here.
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Then explain this?

Our two largest populated states


Texas' Hispanic population is on pace to surpass white residents | The Texas Tribune

It'''s official: Latinos now outnumber whites in California - Los Angeles Times
 
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