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Thread: Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.

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    Re: Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.

    Quote Originally Posted by akyron View Post
    Except by Texans. We still have not finished cleaning up the massive garbage leftovers from the out of state people behind betoe.

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    Re: Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lucky 1 View Post
    The Dems in Texas literally pulled out all the stops...gave it there all ...trying to get Robert O'Rourke elected and failed ......As a Texas native I can tell you most people here are very conservative by nature and when you look at how well the state is currently run and how well off we are... its very unlikely that a majority of the population will risk electing far left Dems......so in my opinion we are pretty safe on the red side of things.

    .As a Texas native I can tell you most people here are very conservative by nature
    You're still not getting it?

    Cruz won in 2012 by 15 points

    Cruz won in 2018 by 3 points(Hello)

    Yeah, this is supposed RED Texas
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    Re: Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.

    Quote Originally Posted by HumblePi View Post
    You hit the nail on the head. This movement towards nationalism - conservatism started a few decades ago with Ronald Reagan who created the conservative movement of “limited government, individual freedom and adherence to the Constitution.” Reagan solidified conservative Republican strength with tax cuts, increased defense spending, deregulation, a greatly strengthened military and appeals to family values and conservative Judeo-Christian morality. In recent years, social issues such as abortion, gun control and gay marriage have become important. The former Tea Party movement energized conservatives at the local level against the more liberal policies made by the presidency of Barack Obama. The nationalism-conservatism movement was a backlash against Barack Obama and liberalism resulting in the election of Trump who apes Ronald Reagan's ideologies. I suspect that sometime in the not too distant future, the pendulum will once again swing back to something more moderate and centrist.
    I couldn't agree more. The younger generations who are growing up in the technology age are better informed and politics to them seems to be more of a social issue than a who can grab the most money issue. If I were a kid today growing up in the age of mass shootings, politics would be more social to me too.
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    Re: Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.

    Quote Originally Posted by DarkWizard12 View Post
    That may not be true. Liberals tend to have a low birthrate, while the more conservative the people, the higher the birth rate. The US may become a more diverse nation, and therefore, a more liberal nation, but it will be far from a paradise and, in the end, it will be the conservative factions, with their higher birthrates, that will dominate the country in 200 years time.

    The Amish population will double again in 20 years....and then double again, etc. etc. Why the Amish Population Is Exploding - CityLab

    Liberals tend to have a low birthrate, while the more conservative the people, the higher the birth rate
    And Hispanics are reproducing higher than them and they lean liberal(Obviously)
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    Re: Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.

    Quote Originally Posted by Luther View Post
    And Hispanics are reproducing higher than them and they lean liberal(Obviously)
    Not really. The mexican birthrate declines over generations, while the conservative birthrate is more consistent, depending on how far religious you go(nominally protestant groups have a declining birthrate as well, but anabaptists like the amish and mennonites grow exponentially). The (far) future of america is a religious population of america that does not believe in birth control on religious grounds.

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    Re: Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.

    Quote Originally Posted by NeverTrump View Post
    I've seen how Republicans have transformed over the past 20 years and it's puzzling where they can go from here. They usually try to go extreme right, but I'm not sure where else they can go at this point. They already support fraud, money launderers, pedophiles and racists etc...
    The right has always had the yawning black pit of fascism behind them, whispering and tempting them to absolute authoritarianism and bigotry. I don't expect them to finally go full far right, but if you want to look at the furthest right point, it ends up at the intersection of irrational nostalgia and tribalistic mass killings.
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    Re: Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Blue wave in Texas, I don't know. You do have this, Trump vs. several possible Democratic candidates.

    RealClearPolitics - Texas General Election Polls

    It's way too early to put much stock in this. But Trump has dropped in Texas from a 54/34 approval/disapproval rating on inauguration day to a 51/45 approval/disapproval in July 2019. Trump is still positive there although his disapproval has rose 11 points. I'd say Trump is likely to win Texas. I would put Texas in the competitive column yet, but it certainly could become so. He beat Clinton by 9 points there in 2016.

    It would take the democrats to nominate the right candidate, not any candidate would do. Texas is an R+8 state which means Republicans outnumber Democrats there by 8 points. I personally think there's a better chance of the Democrats winning Georgia than Texas. Here Trump has dropped from a 53/35 approval/disapproval inauguration day down to a 49/47 approval/disapproval margin.

    I'd have to see a lot more to think that a blue wave could happen in Texas. Georgia I think more likely.
    I don't know if anyone's told you this before, but thank you for constantly providing assessments of polling throughout the forum. You're providing a great service by grounding all of this speculation in solid numbers.
    "The state calls its own violence law, nobody bats an eye. But that of the individual is called crime, and everyone loses their minds."
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    Re: Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.

    Quote Originally Posted by DarkWizard12 View Post
    Not really. The mexican birthrate declines over generations, while the conservative birthrate is more consistent, depending on how far religious you go(nominally protestant groups have a declining birthrate as well, but anabaptists like the amish and mennonites grow exponentially). The (far) future of america is a religious population of america that does not believe in birth control on religious grounds.
    The mexican birthrate declines over generations


    I said Hispanics

    while the conservative birthrate is more consistent,
    Yeah, more consistently lower(wink)


    but anabaptists like the amish and mennonites grow exponentially
    Don't you think it's the Mormons that are growing?


    The (far) future of america is a religious population of america that does not believe in birth control on religious grounds.
    I'm not so sure about that

    Liberalism is creeping into the Church. Not to mention that the church is declining?

    Church Membership Has Dropped Sharply Over The Past 2 Decades: Gallup | HuffPost
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    Re: Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.

    Quote Originally Posted by Luther View Post
    I said Hispanics
    It still applies. the birthrate of latin countries, and migrants that come here, has declined drastically, that even the NYT has noticed it. The reason is because it's easier for them to practice safe sex in America. These home grown conservative religions, anabaptists, mormons, etc. Reject birth control out of principle.

    I really do hate to use the bible in secular arguments, but I think there is a point of wisdom here. It says "you will know my people by their fruits". Well, what are the fruits of modern, secular society? Lower birthrates, more stressed, over-medicated populations. Gender dysphoria, 60%-70% of people(depending on the country) feel there is no meaning in life, in all the "progress" they talk about, will end with them once their lives are over. Go to religious areas, they have very many children, and increase every generation, with their traditions passing down every generation. You may win the culture wars, but the fruits of secular society will simply not last. These religious sects, derided on social media(and to be fair, they sometimes deserve) have stability, and are set for the very long term.

    Yeah, more consistently lower(wink)
    Not what the data says. Anabaptists are having 6 kids per family on average, far above the national. More like, consistently higher. in 200 years, christians will be the only ones here.


    Don't you think it's the Mormons that are growing?
    Tradtional religious factions in general. Obvious, the general christian population(protestants, presbyterians, etc) show similar rates of population decline, but they're more reformed sects of Christianity.


    I'm not so sure about that

    Liberalism is creeping into the Church. Not to mention that the church is declining?

    Church Membership Has Dropped Sharply Over The Past 2 Decades: Gallup | HuffPost
    Last edited by DarkWizard12; 08-18-19 at 03:43 PM.

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    Re: Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.

    Quote Originally Posted by DarkWizard12 View Post
    It still applies. the birthrate of latin countries, and migrants that come here, has declined drastically, that even the NYT has noticed it. The reason is because it's easier for them to practice safe sex in America. These home grown conservative religions, anabaptists, mormons, etc. Reject birth control out of principle.

    I really do hate to use the bible in secular arguments, but I think there is a point of wisdom here. It says "you will know my people by their fruits". Well, what are the fruits of modern, secular society? Lower birthrates, more stressed, over-medicated populations. Gender dysphoria, 60%-70% of people(depending on the country) feel there is no meaning in life, in all the "progress" they talk about, will end with them once their lives are over. Go to religious areas, they have very many children, and increase every generation, with their traditions passing down every generation. You may win the culture wars, but the fruits of secular society will simply not last. These religious sects, derided on social media(and to be fair, they sometimes deserve) have stability, and are set for the very long term.


    Not what the data says. Anabaptists are having 6 kids per family on average, far above the national. More like, consistently higher. in 200 years, christians will be the only ones here.
    Then explain this?

    Our two largest populated states


    Texas' Hispanic population is on pace to surpass white residents | The Texas Tribune

    It'''s official: Latinos now outnumber whites in California - Los Angeles Times
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