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Poll: Beto O'Rourke leads Cruz by 2 points in Texas Senate race

JacksinPA

JacksinPA

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https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brie...e-leads-cruz-by-2-points-in-texas-senate-race

Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D) holds a 2-point lead over incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in a new poll of their Texas Senate race.

The Reuters–Ipsos–University of Virginia Center for Politics poll released on Wednesday found that 47 percent of voters said they favored O'Rourke, while 45 percent said they favored Cruz.

The survey, which was composed among a population of 992 adults, had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points. It was conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 14.
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A different poll shows Creepy Cruz up by +9. But this is in a state that Trump carried by something like 20 points. That political weather vane has changed direction.
 
JacksinPA said:
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brie...e-leads-cruz-by-2-points-in-texas-senate-race

Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D) holds a 2-point lead over incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in a new poll of their Texas Senate race.

The Reuters–Ipsos–University of Virginia Center for Politics poll released on Wednesday found that 47 percent of voters said they favored O'Rourke, while 45 percent said they favored Cruz.

The survey, which was composed among a population of 992 adults, had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points. It was conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 14.
====================================================================
A different poll shows Creepy Cruz up by +9. But this is in a state that Trump carried by something like 20 points. That political weather vane has changed direction.
Click to expand...

Polls are snapshots of a given moment in time. What I look at is momentum and direction. Those seem to be with O'Rourke. He's been slowly creeping up in the polls. He's at least statistically tied with Cruz now. If Cruz can't stop the momentum, he's toast.
 
JacksinPA said:
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brie...e-leads-cruz-by-2-points-in-texas-senate-race

Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D) holds a 2-point lead over incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in a new poll of their Texas Senate race.

The Reuters–Ipsos–University of Virginia Center for Politics poll released on Wednesday found that 47 percent of voters said they favored O'Rourke, while 45 percent said they favored Cruz.

The survey, which was composed among a population of 992 adults, had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points. It was conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 14.
====================================================================
A different poll shows Creepy Cruz up by +9. But this is in a state that Trump carried by something like 20 points. That political weather vane has changed direction.
Click to expand...


So, why don't we talk about the other poll, the one shows him up by +9?!?

By the way ...

Texas - Sep 18, 2018 - "... Republican Pete Flores defeated Democrat Pete Gallego on Tuesday night in the special election runoff for Senate District 19, a major upset in a Democratic-friendly seat with implications for the balance of power in the upper chamber. ..."

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/0...ck-upset-race-democratic-friendly-uresti-sea/
 
bearpoker said:
Polls are snapshots of a given moment in time. What I look at is momentum and direction. Those seem to be with O'Rourke. He's been slowly creeping up in the polls. He's at least statistically tied with Cruz now. If Cruz can't stop the momentum, he's toast.
Click to expand...

Cruz is last year's news. O'Rourke is young, smart & energetic. Watch this space.
 
Texas Senate - Cruz vs. O'Rourke Quinnipiac Cruz 54, O'Rourke 45 Cruz +9

Here's where the senate race stands according to RCP
Democrats have 37 seats total that are either not up or are considered "safe" by pollsters. RCP gives Democrats another three seats that are "likely" to go their way and another four that "lean" Democrat, making the total 44 seats that at least "lean" in the direction of the Democrats.

Republicans are in slightly better shape, with 46 seats either not up or "safe" and another one seat "likely" to go their way, giving them a total of 47 seats that are at least "likely" Republican.

If the pollsters are correct, to seize control of the Senate, Democrats would need to pick up seven of the nine highly competitive seats, while Republicans would need to secure four of the "toss ups" to maintain control.
Click to expand...

Will Democrats Take Control Of The Senate? All The Latest Polls
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
 
JacksinPA said:
Cruz is last year's news. O'Rourke is young, smart & energetic. Watch this space.
Click to expand...

Wow, you should become your own pollster, to hell with the rest of them. ;)
 
bearpoker said:
Polls are snapshots of a given moment in time. What I look at is momentum and direction. Those seem to be with O'Rourke. He's been slowly creeping up in the polls. He's at least statistically tied with Cruz now. If Cruz can't stop the momentum, he's toast.
Click to expand...

No stopping it now - Beto has Willie Nelson!
:thumbs:
 
Casper said:
Will they take the Senate, doubtful, will the Senate be a virtual tie, probably. Will the Dems take the House, most likely. Gonna make the next two years of trump very interesting to watch.
Click to expand...

Can you tell me how you went about determining this?

RCP says differently...

Democrats have 37 seats total that are either not up or are considered "safe" by pollsters. RCP gives Democrats another three seats that are "likely" to go their way and another four that "lean" Democrat, making the total 44 seats that at least "lean" in the direction of the Democrats.

Republicans are in slightly better shape, with 46 seats either not up or "safe" and another one seat "likely" to go their way, giving them a total of 47 seats that are at least "likely" Republican.

If the pollsters are correct, to seize control of the Senate, Democrats would need to pick up seven of the nine highly competitive seats, while Republicans would need to secure four of the "toss ups" to maintain control.
 
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