Great point. I suspect Bernie will never make a majority of delegates going into the convention. His wing is a minority, not even a plurality. As long as there's multiple moderates in the race, even if Biden does collapse but remains in the race at some relatively low level (ex: 10%), we're off to the super-delegate round or brokerage!
Not necessarily. First, 538's Nate Silver's estimate still gives to "no majority," only a 40% chance, and even when giving to this possibility, these relatively high odds, he states that this could change after Super Tuesday, with a candidate becoming more likely to achieve a majority, therefore these odds might fall. So, even before Super Tuesday, it is still more likely, at 60% chance, that someone will get a majority of delegates.
But even if there is nobody with a majority, the assumption that the superdelegates will screw the candidate with the highest percentage of delegates (possibly but not necessarily, Bernie Sanders) and pick someone else, is again a rather baseless speculation, for the simple fact that in the ENTIRE HISTORY of the Democratic Party, superdelegates have NEVER, EVER failed to rally behind the candidate with the most popular vote support (consequently given that the allocation of delegates is proportional in the Democratic Party primaries, behind the candidate with the most pledged delegates).
Why are people so convinced that something that has NEVER happened, will happen this time, when this time, according to party officials, it is even less likely that it will happen, because smarting up from 2016, they know that it would be political suicide? If the Dems pick a candidate seen as non-legitimate and non-sanctioned by the popular vote, they know very well that they will deflate the ticket and entirely rule out any hope of beating Trump in November. No candidate picked by a sleight of hand has even the remotest chance of beating Trump.
I firmly believe that the overwhelmingly more likely outcome is that in second ballot, not only most (obviously not all, but most) of the other delegates but also the superdelegates, will simply rally behind the leader of the first ballot, the candidate with the most popular votes and the most pledged delegates, so that the ticket will show unity and strength, and the convention will be a celebration rather than a street brawl. Why in the hell would the Democratic Party willingly and knowingly effectively kill any possibility of being competitive in November???
People are all afraid of the dreadful words "brokered convention" and are immediately jumping into all sorts of conspiracy theories and ideas of back room deals under the atmosphere of cigar smoke among fat cats, LOL.
Much more likely, the "brokered convention" will be simply the smoothest process in the world, with a first ballot showing the accurate proportions of pledged delegates coming from the popular vote and the caucuses, rapidly, with no further ado, followed by the second ballot enshrining by overwhelming majority, the candidate with the most pledged delegates in the first ballot. Period, full stop, and on to the celebrations and the speeches praising the winning ticket.
Mark my words. This WILL be what will happen in the Dem convention, in case someone doesn't simply achieve first ballot majority.
Very telling is the article from Politico that circulated here, linked to and quoted by others, with the bombastic title that the Dems are considering reinstating the superdelegate vote in first ballot out of concern for extremist candidates hijacking the primaries, touted here as proof of the conspiracy theory that the Dems want to screw Bernie again.
LOL, when you read the article, it says that a "small group", a "half a dozen" non-named people sent an email to the Chair discussing this possibility; the chair responded by shutting it down, and the article adds, "even the proponents of this, acknowledged that it is
all but certain that the idea will gather no support," citing that any attempt to the contrary, according to party officials, would doom the party's chances in November.
And that's the proof that it will happen!!! LOL
People apparently don't read the very articles they link to, jump to conclusions, and go by the bombastic title (apparently not knowing that in the search for clicks, titles tend to be bombastic).
