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Thread: Are you betting on a recession?

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    Are you betting on a recession?

    In one's 401-k, 10% annual growth is common. Ten years ago, 40% losses were also common. One can also choose to allocate money to "stable value" funds where there is essentially zero growth, but is very safe. I'm 75% invested in "stable value" funds. Where are you or would you be in allocating your money in the current environment?

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    Re: Are you betting on a recession?

    Quote Originally Posted by SDET View Post
    In one's 401-k, 10% annual growth is common. Ten years ago, 40% losses were also common. One can also choose to allocate money to "stable value" funds where there is essentially zero growth, but is very safe. I'm 75% invested in "stable value" funds. Where are you or would you be in allocating your money in the current environment?
    I make my own economy. I dont worry about what others are doing I worry about me. 16% annual growth is a bad year for me these days.
    Semper Fidelis, Semper Liber.
    I spit at lots of people through my computer screen. Not only does it "teach them a lesson" but it keeps the screen clean and shiny.
    Stolen fair and square from the Capt. Courtesey himself.

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    Re: Are you betting on a recession?

    Quote Originally Posted by SDET View Post
    In one's 401-k, 10% annual growth is common. Ten years ago, 40% losses were also common. One can also choose to allocate money to "stable value" funds where there is essentially zero growth, but is very safe. I'm 75% invested in "stable value" funds. Where are you or would you be in allocating your money in the current environment?
    Most of my retirement investments are in international growth or equity funds. It is a bit up and down--big ups, big downs--but for as long as it will be until I can put my feet up, I have plenty of time for the 401K to build value and me to diversify it a bit more.

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    Re: Are you betting on a recession?

    Quote Originally Posted by SDET View Post
    In one's 401-k, 10% annual growth is common. Ten years ago, 40% losses were also common. One can also choose to allocate money to "stable value" funds where there is essentially zero growth, but is very safe. I'm 75% invested in "stable value" funds. Where are you or would you be in allocating your money in the current environment?
    SDET, interesting thread. This is what I do as a 58 year old. NOT SAYING IT IS RIGHT OR WRONG JUST telling you my personal approach.

    Emergency fund need to be bigger because that this age (AGE DISCRIMINATION) your current job can absolutely be your last job. I have two years of expenses in cash.

    5 to 10 year horizon, money is in bonds and conservative stocks

    10 to EOL horizon, money is invested in growth related equities because those last five years of our lives can still be a long time from now and we really want growth for that money while we are started our golden years.

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    Re: Are you betting on a recession?

    Real Estate,stocks and precious metals.Each one goes in cycles.You just need to know when to buy and when to sell.

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    Re: Are you betting on a recession?

    Quote Originally Posted by SDET View Post
    In one's 401-k, 10% annual growth is common. Ten years ago, 40% losses were also common. One can also choose to allocate money to "stable value" funds where there is essentially zero growth, but is very safe. I'm 75% invested in "stable value" funds. Where are you or would you be in allocating your money in the current environment?
    With all the attempts to change the '16 election outcome, it isn't surprising that throwing out "recession" is one of the possibilities.
    Husband and I are game. We are wanting to buy a home with some land. Sadly, the current economy makes for a sellers market. Perhaps we should wait for a hefty recession, people losing jobs, jobs staying in China and India, cheap labor from sotb, the market crashing. I mean, why not?
    1 Peter 4: 14-19




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    Re: Are you betting on a recession?

    Are you familiar with the "rule of 55"? If you leave your job after age 55, you can withdraw from THAT COMPANY'S 401-k with no penalty. Any 401-k where you left the company before you were 55 will have to wait until you're 59 1/2 to withdraw with no penalty.

    Quote Originally Posted by charliebrown View Post
    SDET, interesting thread. This is what I do as a 58 year old. NOT SAYING IT IS RIGHT OR WRONG JUST telling you my personal approach.

    Emergency fund need to be bigger because that this age (AGE DISCRIMINATION) your current job can absolutely be your last job. I have two years of expenses in cash.

    5 to 10 year horizon, money is in bonds and conservative stocks

    10 to EOL horizon, money is invested in growth related equities because those last five years of our lives can still be a long time from now and we really want growth for that money while we are started our golden years.

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    Re: Are you betting on a recession?

    Quote Originally Posted by gulfman View Post
    Real Estate,stocks and precious metals.Each one goes in cycles.You just need to know when to buy and when to sell.
    Get yourself some price charts. That helps you determine when to buy and sell by giving you past pricing information to determine things like is it cheap or expensive, does the price move in a particular yearly cycle so and so forth.
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    I spit at lots of people through my computer screen. Not only does it "teach them a lesson" but it keeps the screen clean and shiny.
    Stolen fair and square from the Capt. Courtesey himself.

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    Re: Are you betting on a recession?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lovebug View Post
    With all the attempts to change the '16 election outcome, it isn't surprising that throwing out "recession" is one of the possibilities.
    Husband and I are game. We are wanting to buy a home with some land. Sadly, the current economy makes for a sellers market. Perhaps we should wait for a hefty recession, people losing jobs, jobs staying in China and India, cheap labor from sotb, the market crashing. I mean, why not?
    Its a strategy. However the downside will be tight money if you need to borrow. Which means the rates may be higher and the lending requirements much tighter. I buy land based on past pricing charts for investing or if I need the land make sure at least I am not buying at market tops. You can always find a bargain, in good times it just takes more time.
    Semper Fidelis, Semper Liber.
    I spit at lots of people through my computer screen. Not only does it "teach them a lesson" but it keeps the screen clean and shiny.
    Stolen fair and square from the Capt. Courtesey himself.

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    Re: Are you betting on a recession?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lovebug View Post
    With all the attempts to change the '16 election outcome, it isn't surprising that throwing out "recession" is one of the possibilities.
    Husband and I are game. We are wanting to buy a home with some land. Sadly, the current economy makes for a sellers market. Perhaps we should wait for a hefty recession, people losing jobs, jobs staying in China and India, cheap labor from sotb, the market crashing. I mean, why not?
    Location, location, location.

    One of my cousin's daughters, with her husband, recently picked up a foreclosure in the Pocono's with 12 acres of land for $32k. It needs about $80k of work to make it minimally habitable by their standards. They will use it a summer and weekend vacation home, eventually for retirement. Four large bedrooms, a great room, an eat in kitchen, dining room, 12' ceilings, a wet room, a den and library room, 3 1/2 bathrooms, a large screened deck in the rear, a balcony in the front for the master bedroom on the second floor, an unfinished basement, two car garage and utility shed. 2 clean wells, a clear cesspool. The structure is a post and beam A frame, built in the early 1950's. Great mountain and valley views in all directions. Nearby homes with 5 acres sell in the $350-450k range. Their contractor finished work mid August. New insulated interior walls, paint inside and out, windows, heating, plumbing, updated electrical work, new roof, new screening for the deck, new basic fixtures and new security system. They'll take their time with the rest, including finishing the basement. Both work in the world of fine art, and no doubt their decorating will reflect their talents. He works with an independent fine art appraising company, she works as a curator at MOMA.

    The house was boarded up when they first saw it. Passed from bank to bank and so on, empty since the crash of the late 80's. They looked at dozens of similar more expensive listings in the region, before making an offer on this one. The bank was happy to get it off their books, and countered with a 10% price reduction for cash. They contracted subject to an engineer's report before closing.

    They currently live with their 3 young children in a 180 year old house in Nyack NY which they have been rehabbing for 8 years. Both commute to jobs in Manhattan.

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