• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Coronavirus: Black Death or Annual Flu?

NWRatCon said:
When the Black Death hit the world in the 14th Century it was incredibly deadly. In some regions the death toll exceeded 50% of the population. It literally changed the history of Europe. What made it so deadly was the profound ignorance of the population, and governments, about what caused and spread it. Modern medicine generally fares much better, but the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 was still one of the deadliest in history, though the mortality rate was "only" about 10%. Better, but not "good".

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) has created a worldwide concern, affected the markets, and sown panic in certain areas. Yet, the mortality rate is much lower (so far) than the annual flu, which clocks in at around 14 per 100,000. Why the panic?

There seem to be two reasons: it is unique, and it is unknown. Unique, because, while the virus is known (even common), this strain is behaving differently. Similarly, the Spanish flu virus was believed to have been a strain of the H1N1 virus, but was particularly deadly. (Swine flu was another H1N1 strain.) Unknown, because its spread and mechanisms of infection and morbidity are not fully understood. Nor, is there yet a "cure". The unknown is scary.

The question is: is this outbreak more like the annual flu, or more like the Spanish flu? Until we know that answer, the concern seems warranted.
Click to expand...

The latest I've heard is 80% or so that catch it are asymptomatic or have only minor symptoms. This means it's prbably all over the place already as it is contagious for two weeks.

It is also not hitting kids. That's a good thing.

But it is hitting the elderly, those with bad respiratory problems, and those with immune system issues hard.

It is mutating fast enough to reinfect. That's bad. Hopefully it doesn't mutate to a more virulent form. That would he really bad.

But for now, caution and precautions like washing your hands, not touching your face, not working sick when at all possible, etc. Are what is warranted

It is not time to panic.

But this too may change.
 
jmotivator said:
The closer parallel would be H1N1. By the time the Obama administration took H1N1 seriously there were hundreds of thousands of cases in the US and 1,000 dead. By the time it was over the CDC estimated 60 million cases and 12,000 deaths.

The Trump administration was criticized for stopping flights from China, then criticized for a flight leaving Japan.

People attacking the president for the handling of this outbreak are doing it because of who he is, rather than what he has or hasn't done.
Click to expand...

Agreed.

"You never let a serious crisis go to waste"
Chicago Mayor, Obama Chief of Staff, Democrat

'You never let a serious crisis go to waste' to make a political attack, apparently, from Chicago, home of big machine politics.
 
Evilroddy said:
NWRatCon:

Hope for the best case scenario but prepare for the worst case scenario. Until Covid-19's viral lifecycle and its effects on human populations is much better understood, we must prepare for the worst. First, limit the spread of the virus to buy time and rapidly develop and deploy millions of effective and simple field tests for the presence of the virus in folks. Then over the next six months get working on therapies and vaccines for the virus before it mutates and possibly gets worse. Finally figure out the origins and the pathology of the virus and use epidemiological and biochemical data to understand how it manages to spread from asymptomatic carriers, those made mildly ill by the virus and those badly compromised by the virus.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
Click to expand...

Wow. Just common sense.
 
jmotivator said:
The closer parallel would be H1N1. By the time the Obama administration took H1N1 seriously there were hundreds of thousands of cases in the US and 1,000 dead. By the time it was over the CDC estimated 60 million cases and 12,000 deaths.

The Trump administration was criticized for stopping flights from China, then criticized for a flight leaving Japan.

People attacking the president for the handling of this outbreak are doing it because of who he is, rather than what he has or hasn't done.
Click to expand...
Or, not.

Travel bans don't work -- as should be obvious by how COVID-19 is appearing on both East and West coasts of the US. It's probably been in the US for weeks. In fact, they encourage people to hide their symptoms, and make it difficult for health workers and supplies to get where they need to go.

Trump slashed CDC spending for global health security. He put someone with no health experience in charge of the effort. Instead of letting government agencies do their jobs, they're forcing them to let Pence's office vet their statements. Trump claims that COVID-19 is a "Democratic hoax," uses it to attack the media and is rivals, and uses it to spread fear and disinformation. Trump has also publicly cast doubt on vaccines in the past. (Some issues, such as problems with testing kits, do not seem to be Trump's fault.)

Obama did what he was supposed to do. He declared a national emergency, gave HHS/CDC room to run, kept the public informed, publicly got vaccinated, and didn't use it for partisan gain. H1N1 did not have a high mortality rate, and there wasn't a vaccine until months after it hit the US, so it made sense to wait before declaring an emergency.

So no, the reactions aren't the same.

And of course, COVID-19 is just getting started in the US. It's obviously way too early to know how many people it will impact.
 
State coronavirus death count rises to 6; some schools close (Herald.net)
Four more people have died from the new coronavirus in Washington, including a Snohomish County resident, health officials said Monday, bringing the total dead to six in the state. Those are the only reported fatalities in the U.S.

Dr. Jeff Duchin from Public Health–Seattle & King County announced the new deaths at a news conference here.

Including patients who have died, there are now 18 documented cases of COVID-19 in Washington, officials said. Four of those originated in Snohomish County, including the nation’s first patient who fully recovered after being hospitalized in Everett.
Click to expand...
Washington has a fairly robust epidemiology-reaction process, yet, it has come in the back door, apparently.

King County Executive Dow Constantine declared an emergency Monday and said the county was buying a hotel to be used as a hospital where patients who need to be isolated can be placed to recover. Constantine said that should be available by the end of the week.

“We have moved to a new stage in the fight,” he said.
Click to expand...
Boy, Howdy.
 
As if to prove the prescience of your statement:
What if...? said:
The latest I've heard is 80% or so that catch it are asymptomatic or have only minor symptoms. This means it's probably all over the place already as it is contagious for two weeks.
....
But this too may change.
Click to expand...
Coronavirus may have been circulating undetected in the US for 6 weeks (New Scientist).

I think as the data comes in, we will learn that the infection rate is higher than currently stated, but that the death rate is lower - probably closer to 1% than 2% - although still significantly higher than the flu.

"Panic" is a loaded, partisan, word. Realistically, it is a serious concern, but containable - if handled expeditiously and correctly. As has been noted: Plan for the worst, but hope for the best. We're at the beginning, not even the end of the beginning.

Which U.S. States Have Confirmed Coronavirus Cases? (npr)
 
NWRatCon said:
When the Black Death hit the world in the 14th Century it was incredibly deadly. In some regions the death toll exceeded 50% of the population. It literally changed the history of Europe. What made it so deadly was the profound ignorance of the population, and governments, about what caused and spread it. Modern medicine generally fares much better, but the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 was still one of the deadliest in history, though the mortality rate was "only" about 10%. Better, but not "good".

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) has created a worldwide concern, affected the markets, and sown panic in certain areas. Yet, the mortality rate is much lower (so far) than the annual flu, which clocks in at around 14 per 100,000. Why the panic?

There seem to be two reasons: it is unique, and it is unknown. Unique, because, while the virus is known (even common), this strain is behaving differently. Similarly, the Spanish flu virus was believed to have been a strain of the H1N1 virus, but was particularly deadly. (Swine flu was another H1N1 strain.) Unknown, because its spread and mechanisms of infection and morbidity are not fully understood. Nor, is there yet a "cure". The unknown is scary.

The question is: is this outbreak more like the annual flu, or more like the Spanish flu? Until we know that answer, the concern seems warranted.
Click to expand...

It's kind of difficult to compare pandemics like the black plague, Spanish flu, or any of the cholera epidemics that killed millions to today because we know so much more about how to mitigate the conditions (public health) which prevent the spread and re-infection that took place a long time ago. However that being said, we are a much more mobile human race now. Someone who is a carrier can be on airplane and in hours spread the virus half way around the world. So I think the answer will come down to nations which have the better practices and the money to respond.

HIV is also a pandemic and it is largely mitigated in much of the economically and politically advanced nations. Yet in sub Saharan Africa there are still 25% of the adult population infected and reinfecting others with this disease. We know how to effectively mitigate HIV spread, and yet some parts of the world will just never get with the program.

This virus will not affect some parts of the world like others, but it will be present... maybe even seasonally from now on. China needs to get it's act together. It is a FILTHY place, with FILTHY cultural and hygienic habits. Otherwise China will continue to be like parts of India with cholera and dysentery. China has a space program but what it needs is a wash your hands and don't spit on people when you talk and eat program. Even the people in Hong Kong understand how unsanitary the cities in mainland China are.

So China please! Maybe less aircraft carriers and a few more household toilets and sewage and waste facilities please!!!!
 
Back in the days of the plague, the disease was almost universally fatal when you caught it. Coronavirus seems to be life-threatening primarily for the very old, the very young, or the already-very-sick. This is not to underestimate its effect. If you are healthy and you catch it, you are still probably going to feel like you were hit by a truck, for a few weeks. But that's still different than the kind of mortality being faced by those suffering the plague pandemic.

plague.jpg
 
ataraxia said:
Back in the days of the plague, the disease was almost universally fatal when you caught it. Coronavirus seems to be life-threatening primarily for the very old, very young, or very sick. This is not to underestimate its effect. If you are healthy and you catch it, you are still probably going to feel like you were hit by a truck, for a few weeks. But that's still different than the kind of mortality being faced by those suffering the plague pandemic.

View attachment 67274806
Click to expand...

From reports I've read, a lot of people seem to experience only very mild symptoms, with their cases often going unreported, which in turn helps to spread the virus.
 
Court Jester said:
It's kind of difficult to compare pandemics like the black plague, Spanish flu, or any of the cholera epidemics that killed millions to today because we know so much more about how to mitigate the conditions (public health) which prevent the spread and re-infection that took place a long time ago. However that being said, we are a much more mobile human race now. Someone who is a carrier can be on airplane and in hours spread the virus half way around the world. So I think the answer will come down to nations which have the better practices and the money to respond.

HIV is also a pandemic and it is largely mitigated in much of the economically and politically advanced nations. Yet in sub Saharan Africa there are still 25% of the adult population infected and reinfecting others with this disease. We know how to effectively mitigate HIV spread, and yet some parts of the world will just never get with the program.

This virus will not affect some parts of the world like others, but it will be present... maybe even seasonally from now on. China needs to get it's act together. It is a FILTHY place, with FILTHY cultural and hygienic habits. Otherwise China will continue to be like parts of India with cholera and dysentery. China has a space program but what it needs is a wash your hands and don't spit on people when you talk and eat program. Even the people in Hong Kong understand how unsanitary the cities in mainland China are.

So China please! Maybe less aircraft carriers and a few more household toilets and sewage and waste facilities please!!!!
Click to expand...

Having traveled to a few cities in China, they did not to me seem to have particularly bad hygiene. Certainly there is a lot of pollution, and the high population density in some areas makes crowding inevitable. But as for bad hygiene or bad cultural habits? I didn't see very much of that, at least nothing significantly worse than I've seen in many western cities.
 
China is ground zero for a lot of these kinds of infections: from new influenza strains, to SARS and now Coronavirus, because of some hygiene issues in their markets. Unfortunately, this seems to be an inherent part of their culture, so it has been hard to eradicate and control:

"Sixty years after the Asian influenza pandemic and almost two decades after SARS, China remains ground zero for the emergence of many dangerous new infections. Asia’s wet markets, where shoppers mingle in narrow spaces with everything from live poultry to snakes, are seen as a key reason why.

China has made strides in monitoring and detecting infectious diseases since SARS and tightened controls on the sale of exotic animals, considered nourishing in some parts of the country. Yet the markets, which offer conditions that can set off potentially deadly contagions, remain popular and a central part of life in many cities.

“Freshly killed hens are much better than frozen meat in supermarkets, if you want to make perfect chicken soup,” said Ran, who did not want to give her full name. “The flavor is richer.”

Preference for fresh meat from animals that aren’t properly quarantined or from the wild “does make China susceptible to the risk of new virus outbreaks through close animal and human contact,” said Wang Yuedan, a professor of immunology at Peking University’s School of Basic Medical Sciences. “The same is true for Ebola, which came about as a result of eating animals from the forest in Africa.”...

China is closely acquainted with deadly pathogens. The Asian flu pandemic that emerged from wild ducks in 1957 killed as many as 2 million people globally, according to the World Health Organization. SARS may have spread from bats to humans via masked palm civets and other species in live-animal markets before it began infecting people.

Two strains of avian flu in the past decade also may have emerged from a poultry market and a goose farm."
Deadly coronavirus finds a breeding ground in China's food markets | The Japan Times
Click to expand...
 
Irredentist said:
Having traveled to a few cities in China, they did not to me seem to have particularly bad hygiene. Certainly there is a lot of pollution, and the high population density in some areas makes crowding inevitable. But as for bad hygiene or bad cultural habits? I didn't see very much of that, at least nothing significantly worse than I've seen in many western cities.
Click to expand...

Depends on the region in China.

Look up reports about the last Olympics in China and the government demanding hotels and restaurants enact some higher standards so as not to embarrass the nation. Also look into public urination, defecation, and other dirty cultural habits by mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong.
 
Court Jester said:
Depends on the region in China.

Look up reports about the last Olympics in China and the government demanding hotels and restaurants enact some higher standards so as not to embarrass the nation. Also look into public urination, defecation, and other dirty cultural habits by mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong.
Click to expand...

Tourists do bad things no matter where they go. You wouldn't believe what some Americans do in Europe.
 
Irredentist said:
Tourists do bad things no matter where they go. You wouldn't believe what some Americans do in Europe.
Click to expand...

I don't know of many Americans taking a poop on a public train or bus in Europe. San Francisco, Seattle, and Los Angeles yes. But not in Europe.

A few years ago I was at an amusement park with my family waiting in line and a Chinese teenager took out a ziplock bag and urinated in it a put it back in his bag... no lie. When I asked a park employee about it he confessed it was a problem with Chinese mainland tourists accustomed to not having public restroom facilities.

This is a cultural thing in mainland China. Something which Chinese in Honk Kong, Taiwan, folks in Singapore, Japan, and Vietnam all REJECT as being filthy. The Chinese government actually prints out rules of behavior for mainland Chinese tourist who travel abroad. The Chinese government is clearly embarrassed by this aspect of parts of their culture.





 
Coronavirus live updates: US death toll rises to 9, mortality rate of COVID-19 rises (CNBC)
US cases: At least 108, according to the CDC.
US deaths: At least 9, according to the CDC and state health officials.
The mortality rate of COVID-19 is significantly higher than previous estimates, world health officials said. Globally, about 3.4% of confirmed patients have died, said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization. In comparison, the seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected. The WHO officials said last week that the mortality rate of COVID-19 can differ, ranging from 0.7% to up to 4%, depending on the quality of the health-care system where it’s treated. Early in the outbreak, scientists had concluded the death rate was around 2.3%
Click to expand...
North Carolina health officials confirmed the state’s first COVID-19 case — a patient from Wake County who traveled to Washington state. Local health officials are working to find out who may have been in contact with the patient, Governor Roy Cooper said during a press briefing, adding the state expects more cases. “Our most important work is keeping people healthy and safe,” he said.
Click to expand...
 
ataraxia said:
China is ground zero for a lot of these kinds of infections: from new influenza strains, to SARS and now Coronavirus, because of some hygiene issues in their markets. Unfortunately, this seems to be an inherent part of their culture, so it has been hard to eradicate and control:
Click to expand...
There are cultural habits in various societies that can exacerbate the transmission of diseases. China (and many SE Asian countries) have open markets that can be hotbeds of crossover contamination (exotic, freshly butchered) from other species. It should also be noted that the United States has cultural habits that are also conducive to spread of disease, especially our resistance to authority and fetish for "personal independence". It is a concern among epidemiologists.
 
two people who tested positive for the new coronavirus died in Florida, marking the first known deaths on the East Coast. The two people who died were in their 70s and had traveled overseas, according to officials. These two deaths bring the U.S. death toll from covid-19 to 17, of which 14 were in the state of Washington and one in California. Health officials also said two older male patients in Broward County, Florida had tested positive for the new coronavirus. Later in the day, Washington state said two more people had died, raising the state’s total toll to 16, and the country’s to 19.
Click to expand...
New York Declares State of Emergency as Florida Reports First Coronavirus Deaths on East Coast (Slate). This is just grim. I know the numbers are small so far, but exponential growth is expected. Are coronavirus diseases equally deadly? (NBC) "Comparing the latest coronavirus to MERS and SARS."

1) [T]here were 8,098 reported cases of SARS and 774 deaths. Infections were primarily through person-to-person transmissions. Mortality rate: 9.63%
2) [T]here have been 2,494 reported cases of MERS, and 858 deaths from the virus. Infections occurred primarily from close human-to-human contact. Mortality rate: 34.45%
3) COVID-19: 106,212 cases, 3,600 deaths (numbers are not up to date).
4) CDC Influenza numbers are preliminary.
 
Regarding concerns about the number of test kits for the COV-ID 19 available, Fauci repeated what officials had said Saturday during a White House briefing. Approximately 1.1 million tests have already been sent out, and by Monday an additional 400,000 will be shipped. By the end of the week, Fauci, who explained there was a "technical glitch" in the beginning with the tests, estimated 4 million kits will be delivered.

However, federal officials still are not giving a number of how many people have been tested. Each person has at least two tests given to them to determine if they have the virus -- a nose swab and a mouth swab.
Click to expand...
US surgeon general says he thinks coronavirus is contained in certain areas of the country (CNN). Let's hope the Surgeon General is right, and let's do more comprehensive testing. Although 32 States and the District of Columbia are now reporting confirmed cases, to date we're under 500. That might change with adequate testing, but, by and large, US cases are relatively isolated. I expect the number of confirmations to hit 1000 by the end of the week (based on world experience). The age of fatalities tends to be very high. Not that this risk should be taken lightly, but it may bode well for containment and keeping fatalities low. The US may be lucky by it arriving so much later, but given the available time, the preparedness was appalling.
 
wellwisher said:
The Corona virus is relatively new, which means the human body has little experience dealing with it. This is unlike the flu, where the human body has centuries of experience. The flu appears to be worse in that respect, since it still has a higher mortality rate even with much more human body experience. Based on the data I have read, the human body appears to be adjusting quickly to the new virus. The percent of deaths is quite low. Natural selection may beat the virus before the antidote comes out.

Most of the hype is connected to fake news, building this up, so people will stay tuned, so they can sell products. This fake news template appeals to the doom and gloom seekers and the disease rubber neckers.
Click to expand...

Please provide us with credible links to fake news and how the specific links you provide support your post above.
 
I'd like to keep this thread focused on actual facts, and there are many posters willing to do that. To those, Thanks.
 
The Black Death to Annual Flu continuum is a very broad spectrum. Since we are in the very early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic it is too early to place it accurately on that continuum with any authority or claim to certainty.. Thus the question is a premature one at this point in time, as not enough is known about this virus and its potential to spread and kill or our potential to mitigate its effects.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
 
Evilroddy said:
The Black Death to Annual Flu continuum is a very broad spectrum. Since we are in the very early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic it is too early to place it accurately on that continuum with any authority or claim to certainty.. Thus the question is a premature one at this point in time, as not enough is known about this virus and its potential to spread and kill or our potential to mitigate its effects.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
Click to expand...

That was, in fact, the reason for the thread title - it is mostly unknown, but there are facts to be understood. We take it extremely seriously here at home, as my wife is extremely physically compromised.

Soap and water are the best disinfectants, period. (I read an article about why that is. It was illuminating.) Second is 60%+ alcohol, although isopropyl is not as good as ethyl. Alcohol-free hand sanitizers are marginal, at best, for viruses.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom