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Self-driving trucks in 5-10 years could displace 1.7 million truck drivers

spud_meister said:
Human error causes more accidents and deaths than mechanical error. Driverless trucks, even if they couldn't account for mechanical failure, would still probably cause less deaths human drivers.
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I want to see a driverless truck hauling 22.5 tons out of a sand pit.

Come see me then.
 
RetiredUSN said:
I want to see a driverless truck hauling 22.5 tons out of a sand pit.

Come see me then.
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Yes, you're right...that might take a while longer.
But you're not taking into account the fleets hauling for Wal-Mart, VONS, Kroger, etc.
Hence the reason I'm still saying that you can't stop what's coming.
Just because it might take a while longer before more complex hauling tasks can be completed doesn't mean that automated driverless trucks aren't on the horizon.
 
poweRob said:
They'll just reduce their pay down to a useless almost entry-level wage like they have done pilots.

Why airlines are running out of pilots

According to data for 14 regional airlines, the average new pilot’s hourly wage is about $24 per hour, the report says. But the Air Line Pilots Association estimates that the average starting salary is even lower than that — $22,500 per year, which for a 40-hour work week equals an hourly rate of $10.75. Unsurprisingly, 11 of the 12 regional airlines the GAO interviewed reported difficulties filling entry-level first-officer vacancies.

“You just can’t find people to work for those wages,” says Helane Becker, a managing director at Cowen and Company who covers airlines.​
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And when you HAVE starting pilots who have to work a second job, you have pilots who are working on NOT ENOUGH SLEEP.
Yeah, great idea...said NO ONE EVER.
 
Maybe we should outlaw them nationally, in order to preserve jobs.
 
Checkerboard Strangler said:
Yes, you're right...that might take a while longer.
But you're not taking into account the fleets hauling for Wal-Mart, VONS, Kroger, etc.
Hence the reason I'm still saying that you can't stop what's coming.
Just because it might take a while longer before more complex hauling tasks can be completed doesn't mean that automated driverless trucks aren't on the horizon.
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Until the first multi-party lawsuit.


Like I said, come see me when self driving trucks can handle logging roads, sand pits, and avoid severe potholes that can tip a truck off road.

Come see me when they can back up to a excavator or bucket loader.


Self driving trucks will be extremely limited for the next 30-40 years.
 
RetiredUSN said:
I want to see a driverless truck hauling 22.5 tons out of a sand pit.

Come see me then.
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How does a 416 ton driverless truck sound?

https://qz.com/874589/rio-tinto-is-...rucks-to-haul-raw-materials-around-australia/


The trucks, made by Japanese manufacturer Komatsu, weigh 416 tons and use a mix of GPS, radar, and laser sensors to navigate a site. Their job is simple: go to a load site, wait to be filled with iron ore, and then drive to another location. Komatsu estimates that their autonomous trucks have already hauled 1 billion tons of material, mainly in Australia and Chile.
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RetiredUSN said:
Until the first multi-party lawsuit.


Like I said, come see me when self driving trucks can handle logging roads, sand pits, and avoid severe potholes that can tip a truck off road.

Come see me when they can back up to a excavator or bucket loader.


Self driving trucks will be extremely limited for the next 30-40 years.
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Jeezus, I didn't disagree.
I pointed out where the field will start being filled in first.
Don't take my word for it, these companies have stated their intentions already.
Wal-Mart doesn't do logging roads and sand pits.
You're talking trucking and heavy equipment, I'm LHL and standardized routes OTR.

That is a large chunk of the fleet.
 
Checkerboard Strangler said:
Jeezus, I didn't disagree.
I pointed out where the field will start being filled in first.
Don't take my word for it, these companies have stated their intentions already.
Wal-Mart doesn't do logging roads and sand pits.
You're talking trucking and heavy equipment, I'm LHL and standardized routes OTR.

That is a large chunk of the fleet.
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I could easily see the long haul routes over the interstates being automated, intra city will take longer.
 
longview said:
I could easily see the long haul routes over the interstates being automated, intra city will take longer.
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Believe me, it's not like I think that five years from now trucking will be a dead occupation altogether.
I just think it will gradually become more and more automated and less and less of an ideal way to make a living, and will require less and less skill, thus it will pay less and less money.
The logistics industry does not want skilled high paid truck drivers any longer than they can manage to eliminate them.

And by the way, guess what goes hand in hand WITH automated logistics? Automated warehousing and automated assembly.
Where were the fields of automated warehousing and assembly five years ago?

Your move, but I must inform you the game is two moves from checkmate :D
 
Checkerboard Strangler said:
Believe me, it's not like I think that five years from now trucking will be a dead occupation altogether.
I just think it will gradually become more and more automated and less and less of an ideal way to make a living, and will require less and less skill, thus it will pay less and less money.
The logistics industry does not want skilled high paid truck drivers any longer than they can manage to eliminate them.

And by the way, guess what goes hand in hand WITH automated logistics? Automated warehousing and automated assembly.
Where were the fields of automated warehousing and assembly five years ago?

Your move, but I must inform you the game is two moves from checkmate :D
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Quite

Forked AGV and automated forklift trucks - Automated guided vehicles with automatic forklift, single fork, dual fork, reach fork

The FLV series include forklift AGVs that are able to automatically pick up and deliver pallets, containers, rolls, carts and many other conveyable loads. Automated guided vehicles with forks are the most common type of AGVs because they are so versatile. They can pick and drop load from floor level, racks, stands and driven conveyors.

Forklift automatic guided vehicles can also handle nearly any load: pallets, skeleton containers, IBC’s, racks, tubs, boxes, rolls.

A variety of forklift applications
Forklift AGV systems are the ideal solution for warehouse and distribution areas. Thanks to their versatility forked automated guided vehicles can be used for a wide range of applications:

moving loads from receiving to production / warehouse
warehousing (narrow aisle, deep-lane stacking, block storage, racking)
buffer storage
end-of-line handling: picking from conveyors, palletisers, stretch wrappers
trailer loading / unloading
transport between production and warehouse
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My previous company was looking at a similar system for a plant in the US, not sure if they went ahead with them or not
 
Checkerboard Strangler said:
Believe me, it's not like I think that five years from now trucking will be a dead occupation altogether.
I just think it will gradually become more and more automated and less and less of an ideal way to make a living, and will require less and less skill, thus it will pay less and less money.
The logistics industry does not want skilled high paid truck drivers any longer than they can manage to eliminate them.

And by the way, guess what goes hand in hand WITH automated logistics? Automated warehousing and automated assembly.
Where were the fields of automated warehousing and assembly five years ago?

Your move, but I must inform you the game is two moves from checkmate :D
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What I am thinking is the first stage will be the truck self driving feature will only be for long distance interstate runs.
At the city edges the truck would have to pick up a driver, much like a port pilot.
Automation has been creeping up for 30 +years, A CNC lathe is a form of automation,
and I first saw them in 1981.
It may also be that they do not need as many truck drivers, but the ones they need could be well paid.
 
longview said:
What I am thinking is the first stage will be the truck self driving feature will only be for long distance interstate runs.
At the city edges the truck would have to pick up a driver, much like a port pilot.
Automation has been creeping up for 30 +years, A CNC lathe is a form of automation,
and I first saw them in 1981.
It may also be that they do not need as many truck drivers, but the ones they need could be well paid.
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I'm inclined to agree on the port pilot theory, also there will be nomadic gigs for tech support drivers who run out to meet with trucks that have encountered a snag. It could be a minor accident, or a road anomaly, or software failure that caused the truck to pull over.
These specialists will use a motorcycle to get to the scene, and once there, if they can fix it and get the truck running again, they'll either mount the cycle on the back and get in to babysit for the rest of the ride, or go to the next trouble spot.

For larger problems, like a major accident, if the load is still secure and intact, they'll be able to summon another automated tractor to take the load.
 
Checkerboard Strangler said:
I'm inclined to agree on the port pilot theory, also there will be nomadic gigs for tech support drivers who run out to meet with trucks that have encountered a snag. It could be a minor accident, or a road anomaly, or software failure that caused the truck to pull over.
These specialists will use a motorcycle to get to the scene, and once there, if they can fix it and get the truck running again, they'll either mount the cycle on the back and get in to babysit for the rest of the ride, or go to the next trouble spot.

For larger problems, like a major accident, if the load is still secure and intact, they'll be able to summon another automated tractor to take the load.
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Interesting idea! It reminds of a story a Friend told me, He was drafted during Vietnam, and thought a Chinook Helicopter mechanic
would be a safe place, Every time one got shot down, they would send him with tools and explosives,
Fix it, or blow it up!
 
Phys251 said:
I don't mind self-driving trucks. We've had planes that can fly themselves for years.

I DO mind driverless trucks, with nobody in the cab. What's gonna happen next if something goes wrong that the computer didn't account for? If it loses the signal? If it overcorrects for a blown-out tire? I want a human in the cab who is ready to respond.
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Yeah a human driver who can be drunk or fall asleep.
 
RetiredUSN said:
LOL Coming from a non driver.
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What the **** has that got to with anything.

So, I choose in retirement to only drive when necessary and no, I don';t waste money on a car and insurance, i use MODO and it works just fine. Two, I was a driver, mostly professional for nearly 50 years driving truck, bus for a time and for many years a radio car responding to any and all emergencies as a reporter. I have had four accidents, one my fault.

I have driven extensively in the US, four times making the trans continental route and three times north south. I have driven from the out back of Missouri to the head of the Mississippi and twice cross Canada on a motorcycle.

You can always tell an American but not very much
 
Fearandloathing said:
What the **** has that got to with anything.

So, I choose in retirement to only drive when necessary and no, I don';t waste money on a car and insurance, i use MODO and it works just fine. Two, I was a driver, mostly professional for nearly 50 years driving truck, bus for a time and for many years a radio car responding to any and all emergencies as a reporter. I have had four accidents, one my fault.

I have driven extensively in the US, four times making the trans continental route and three times north south. I have driven from the out back of Missouri to the head of the Mississippi and twice cross Canada on a motorcycle.

You can always tell an American but not very much
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The first class action lawsuit will shut down the self driving pipe dream.
 
RetiredUSN said:
The first class action lawsuit will shut down the self driving pipe dream.
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If that were the case, then trucking companies would also be put out of business by lawsuits. It's not like human drivers are 100% perfect.

The legal issues relating to automated vehicles are new, and will take time to hash out. However, ultimately any such accidents will be covered by insurance, just like any other type of transportation.
 
Visbek said:
If that were the case, then trucking companies would also be put out of business by lawsuits. It's not like human drivers are 100% perfect.

The legal issues relating to automated vehicles are new, and will take time to hash out. However, ultimately any such accidents will be covered by insurance, just like any other type of transportation.
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Coming from a person who is totally refuses to realize the constant change in driving conditions and construction crews moving barrels for lane changes many times a day.


I wanna see what you all say when a self driving truck wipes out a construction crew who happens to be working inside the safety barrels.


You know nothing about these issues and chime in like it's all going to be safe.
 
RetiredUSN said:
Coming from a person who is totally refuses to realize the constant change in driving conditions and construction crews moving barrels for lane changes many times a day.
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Meaning what, you think self-driving vehicles won't be able to handle lane closures? Perhaps a self-driving truck is going to plow right through a Scorpion? Please.


I wanna see what you all say when a self driving truck wipes out a construction crew who happens to be working inside the safety barrels.
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What do we say now, when a trucker slams into a construction crew?

You do know that there are anywhere from 60,000 to 100,000 crashes in work zones every year, right?


You know nothing about these issues and chime in like it's all going to be safe.
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I said nothing of the sort.

I do believe self-driving trucks will be safer than human drivers, but I certainly don't believe there will be zero accidents.

What I'm saying is that the liabilities already exist, and we already have ways to manage them. We'll just have to make a few adjustments when dealing with self-driving vehicles.
 
Thx said:
How do they keep the computers that control these vehicles from locking-up?

Has mankind finally conquered the "glitch" and the common cold?

"Just around the corner." "Coming soon to a town near you"?

Don't hold your breath, this is just as likely to never happen...

Thx :)
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How do you keep the drivers from having heart attacks, or bad hangovers, or strokes, or.....
 
beefheart said:
How do you keep the drivers from having heart attacks, or bad hangovers, or strokes, or.....
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I said that statistically it might be safer overall, but I don't believe people are going to put them into the same category.

People make mistakes, "machines don't make mistakes" we have always heard... they don't make mistakes, they "malfunction" and that can be 100 times worse.

When they come up with a "Murphy-proof" system, well, it will be apparent.



Self-driving cars have been "just around the corner" for decades now, but of course this time it is different!

"In the late 1950s, the Radio Corporation of America thought it had a lock on the self-driving car. The January 1958 issue of Electronic Age, RCA’s quarterly magazine, featured its vision of the “highway of the future”:"

https://infostory.com/2016/09/14/self-driving-cars-just-around-the-corner-1958-1969-and-2016/

Thx :)
 
Thx said:
Self-driving cars have been "just around the corner" for decades now, but of course this time it is different!
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Yes, it is. Technology has changed radically since the 1950s. Truck platoons are in live tests. Self-driving cars are already on the streets. Waymo announced today that it received an order for an additional 62,000 robot taxis.

Self-driving trucks won't be fully operational tomorrow, but it won't be long now. Drivers need to be ready, or else they will be roadkill.
 
Visbek said:
Yes, it is. Technology has changed radically since the 1950s. Truck platoons are in live tests. Self-driving cars are already on the streets. Waymo announced today that it received an order for an additional 62,000 robot taxis.

Self-driving trucks won't be fully operational tomorrow, but it won't be long now. Drivers need to be ready, or else they will be roadkill.
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And that's what they said when they tried it in the 1970s...^

This has been an ongoing project for at least 60 years.

But hey, I'm not saying it's "impossible."

Thx :)
 
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