Robots will destroy our jobs – and we're not ready for it

Nap said:

The only population that will become obsolete are those that fail to adapt to the changing times.

There is no finite demand for things.

Let's assume all manual labor is taken over by robots, this will lead to more leisure time and more demand for entertainment. We are already seeing this shift with online video creation and competitive gaming. You literally have people paying others to play games so they can watch them.

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More demand for entertainment, yes, but not enough to replace all manual labor.

There is a finite demand for things. I cannot possibly consume an infinite amount of resources.

Deuce said:

More demand for entertainment, yes, but not enough to replace all manual labor.

There is a finite demand for things. I cannot possibly consume an infinite amount of resources.

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Have you got a cellphone? How many cell phones have you had and did you only get a new phone out of necessity or because you wanted the newest version? Virtually everyone in America has a cellphone, however the industry is booming as it was when they were first introduced. As long as they create new phones every year there will be demand for them until some new technology renders them obsolete and the cycle starts over again.

Lord Tammerlain said:

Taxi drivers being replaced with automated cars

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ElChupacabra said:

The interesting thing is this isn't limited to just manual labor jobs either. Plenty of developers I work with are busy working on applications to end many administrative tasks as well, so this kind of unemployment will hit white collar and blue collar workers alike. The bottom line is if both mechanical and digital automation reduce the number of people needed to to work, what can people transition to if this trend continues.

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Most people assume that technological unemployment will only affect menial labor, manufacturing and repetitive task jobs.
They couldn't be more wrong.
Others think we will have an economy where you own a bunch of robots, and that's nonsense too.
https://www.debatepolitics.com/scie...-not-ready-post1068518711.html#post1068518711

How many of us "own our own mini movie theaters" just because an 80 inch 4K HDTV can come close to matching a theater experience?
Or own our own entertainment network just because 4K camcorders are affordable?
I HAVE a 75 inch 4K HDTV, I can't make a dime off screenings.

What happened? Democratization killed the earnings potential, that's what happened.
HINT: It wasn't too long ago that a million dollar budget for a dramatic feature was pretty typical!
"Friday the 13th" (the original) was a 1980 horror film that cost 500 thousand to make.
It grossed 59 million dollars worldwide.
Now that the means of production and the equipment are democratized, it's impossible to make money producing a one million dollar feature anymore. Distributors will only give you fifty grand for the rights.

So someone who owns ten robots, which they're going to wind up paying 150 thousand for, is only going to be able to make about 25 thousand a year off them. Yeah right, what a great investment. Meanwhile the folks who can scoop up 500 of them might make some decent money.
And that is WHY the shlub who only owns ten of them won't get peanuts.

Apartment dwellers in the city won't have the space to manage operating a stable of robots, neither will neighbors in suburbia, or exurbia for that matter.

Where does all this robotic renaissance take place? The same place it always has...not in residential areas.

Lord Tammerlain said:

Trucks being automated on the interstate getting a driver at the delivery yard. Taxi drivers being replaced with automated cars

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JacksinPA said:

Economically it's inevitable. Big firms like UPS & FedEx will lead the way, then big city taxi fleets. AI + robotics - perfect together.

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Yes, these autonomous vehicles are going to be just great, until the first one locks-up and smashes into the proverbial station wagon full of nuns.

Now, when they come up with a lock-up proof computer, sign me up!

Thx

Nap said:

Have you got a cellphone? How many cell phones have you had and did you only get a new phone out of necessity or because you wanted the newest version? Virtually everyone in America has a cellphone, however the industry is booming as it was when they were first introduced. As long as they create new phones every year there will be demand for them until some new technology renders them obsolete and the cycle starts over again.

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And when production of those phones is automated, the number of people involved in this drops dramatically.

Thx said:

Yes, these autonomous vehicles are going to be just great, until the first one locks-up and smashes into the proverbial station wagon full of nuns.

Now, when they come up with a lock-up proof computer, sign me up!

Thx

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But you are fine with human drivers who can have software issues as well (ie distracted driving, driving while impaired, falling asleep). It is not like humans have anywhere close to a perfect driving record

Deuce said:

And when production of those phones is automated, the number of people involved in this drops dramatically.

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And? This is not some new issue facing humanity. Every time a new technology comes out that increases efficiency and reduces the number of people needed for a particular job society adjusts.

Nap said:

And? This is not some new issue facing humanity. Every time a new technology comes out that increases efficiency and reduces the number of people needed for a particular job society adjusts.

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And the long term effect of this is wage suppression. That is part of the adjustment. More and more people relegated to low-wage tablescrap jobs. These adjustment jobs of yours are less valued. Because if they were valued higher, someone would be doing them already.

Lord Tammerlain said:

But you are fine with human drivers who can have software issues as well (ie distracted driving, driving while impaired, falling asleep). It is not like humans have anywhere close to a perfect driving record

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No they don't, and perhaps the percentage of accidents would be lower with automated driving.

But, I don't believe most people are going to just accept being a percentage, if one falls asleep or is distracted it's their own fault, and why should I live with a system that is just a bit safer than irresponsible drivers?

Flying cars, fusion power, etc, these are the things that have kept Popular Science magazine going for many decades.

Thx

Deuce said:

And the long term effect of this is wage suppression. That is part of the adjustment. More and more people relegated to low-wage tablescrap jobs. These adjustment jobs of yours are less valued. Because if they were valued higher, someone would be doing them already.

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There will be more higher paying jobs as well because more robots mean more programming and maintenance.

Nap said:

There will be more higher paying jobs as well because more robots mean more programming and maintenance.

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I used to design and implement automation systems, and you are very correct.

And... I guess we are getting to the point where people are going to have to bring more job skills to the table than "pick and place."

Lol, our company was pretty much 100% women on the assembly line, we put in a Seiko robot and had a minor incident, a sit-down strike when the ladies worried that they were going to be replaced by robots...

(this was back in the 1980s...)

But, instead of laying off we simply found other tasks for them, most were turned into inspectors.

And a few were taught to run the system.

And I can imagine them sitting around the dinner table: "Daddy is a carpenter and frames houses, but Momma programs a robot!"

Like anything, people are apprehensive and afraid until they actually learn and see first-hand.

Thx

Nap said:

There will be more higher paying jobs as well because more robots mean more programming and maintenance.

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But less overall pay. That’s literally why the robots are there in the first place. Replacing 20 auto workers with 1 maintenance tech.

Deuce said:

But less overall pay. That’s literally why the robots are there in the first place. Replacing 20 auto workers with 1 maintenance tech.

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Automobiles and tractors displaced a lot of jobs, now it is their turn.

And, are we going to "outlaw" automation technology, what practical measures can be done here, what practical measures have ever been done?

Thx

Thx said:

Automobiles and tractors displaced a lot of jobs, now it is their turn.

And, are we going to "outlaw" automation technology, what practical measures can be done here, what practical measures have ever been done?

Thx

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Outlaw the technology that reduces the need for humans to justify their existence through meaningless toil? Why would we do that?

Deuce said:

Outlaw the technology that reduces the need for humans to justify their existence through meaningless toil? Why would we do that?

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Not only wouldn't we, we simply can't.

One can try and resist automation, as long as they don't mind going out of business...

That's the thing, if you don't keep up with your competitors we are ALL on the dole.

Thx

Thx said:

I used to design and implement automation systems, and you are very correct.

And... I guess we are getting to the point where people are going to have to bring more job skills to the table than "pick and place."

Lol, our company was pretty much 100% women on the assembly line, we put in a Seiko robot and had a minor incident, a sit-down strike when the ladies worried that they were going to be replaced by robots...

(this was back in the 1980s...)

But, instead of laying off we simply found other tasks for them, most were turned into inspectors.

And a few were taught to run the system.

And I can imagine them sitting around the dinner table: "Daddy is a carpenter and frames houses, but Momma programs a robot!"

Like anything, people are apprehensive and afraid until they actually learn and see first-hand.

Thx

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Exactly, I work in an auto plant. Robots aren't some set and forget machinery like some tend to think. Like you said, if your set of skills is nothing but "pick and place" then you are going to need to apply yourself and learn some skills otherwise you will be placing cans on the shelf at Kroger.

Deuce said:

But less overall pay. That’s literally why the robots are there in the first place. Replacing 20 auto workers with 1 maintenance tech.

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As I stated before, this is the same issue that humanity has faced throughout history every time new technology comes out. At one time the majority of workers in America were farmers, now it is something like 1 or 2% because of technological advancement. Automation has drastically increased over the last 40 years and yet unemployment is at one of the lower points in history. It isn't like it will just happen tomorrow that 99% of manufacturing will be robots, it will be a gradual increase like we are currently in. If you aren't actively seeking out new skills to set yourself apart from others, it will be your own fault.

Nap said:

Exactly, I work in an auto plant. Robots aren't some set and forget machinery like some tend to think. Like you said, if your set of skills is nothing but "pick and place" then you are going to need to apply yourself and learn some skills otherwise you will be placing cans on the shelf at Kroger.

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Something I learned from my time at the factory.

1. It is not easy to replace a human worker, even a low skill position, people can be very fast and very precise and detail conscious, it is no easy thing to get a machine to do a human's job, even nowadays with more advanced systems. (It took me two months to tool-up and program a robot.)

2. Robots often do a job that is too miserable for a human being to do... and that includes physical danger, exposure to chemicals and repetitive motion injuries.

We had ladies at that plant whose job it was to literally push a lever all day and every day for the last 25 years she had been there, I always wanted to automate their systems, but unfortunately had greater priorities.

One of the first casualties of automation were clerical workers, office workers from the 1960s, I'm sure many remember the turmoil that arose in that sector, but we adapted...

Thx

Some one has to program these robots and service them too, jobs will change, not disappear. My daughter is 8, I'm already nudging her towards jobs involving robotics and AI.

lefty louie said:

Some one has to program these robots and service them too, jobs will change, not disappear. My daughter is 8, I'm already nudging her towards jobs involving robotics and AI.

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One programmer replaces many workers. Otherwise they wouldn’t use the robots to begin with

Nap said:

As I stated before, this is the same issue that humanity has faced throughout history every time new technology comes out. At one time the majority of workers in America were farmers, now it is something like 1 or 2% because of technological advancement. Automation has drastically increased over the last 40 years and yet unemployment is at one of the lower points in history. It isn't like it will just happen tomorrow that 99% of manufacturing will be robots, it will be a gradual increase like we are currently in. If you aren't actively seeking out new skills to set yourself apart from others, it will be your own fault.

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There’s the libertarianism.

The poverty this drives people to is acceptable damage to you that doesn’t warrant response. Because the filthy poors deserve it.

Deuce said:

One programmer replaces many workers. Otherwise they wouldn’t use the robots to begin with

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Yes but then you need a tech to service the computer, you need oil to lube the bots, you will have someone to recycle the bots once they are used up. There will be emerging markets. Batteries, various metals, plastics, hydraulics, oils etc....

lefty louie said:

Yes but then you need a tech to service the computer, you need oil to lube the bots, you will have someone to recycle the bots once they are used up. There will be emerging markets. Batteries, various metals, plastics, hydraulics, oils etc....

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Yes. The total labor cost of the robots is less than people. Literally the reason to use them.

Deuce said:

Yes. The total labor cost of the robots is less than people. Literally the reason to use them.

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I'm sorry, I thought you made that point once already, felt it necessary to drop a deuce did you?