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Thread: Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age

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    Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age

    Echoes Of War And Collapse: Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age



    1/12/20
    MOSCOW -- Russia's demographic turbulence, which stretched the length of the last century, is continuing into the third decade of this one. The government's statistics agency, Rosstat, released figures in December showing a natural population decline of 259,600 in the first 10 months of 2019. The predicted decline for the whole year: more than 300,000, a loss three times greater than the year before. It marks the third straight year of decline -- Russia lost about 19,000 people in 2017 and nearly 100,000 in 2018. In-migration was enough to overcome the 2017 natural population loss, but the 2019 figures mark the second straight year of overall population decline. The sobering figures marked the end of nearly a decade of increases following the catastrophic demographic losses of the 1990s, a downward spiral that was only reversed in 2009. But experts have not been surprised by the numbers, which they say are echoes of demographic trends of previous generations. "First, this is about the relatively large generation that was born during the [post-World War II] period of rising birthrates reaching old age," says Alla Ivanova, head of the Department of Health at the Institute of Sociopolitical Research, part of the Russian Academy of Sciences. "Of course, this affects the increase in the death rate." "And birthrates are declining, primarily, because the relatively small generation of women born in the 1990s has reached reproductive age," Ivanova adds. "It is well-known that that period saw a very significant decrease in births." In other words: Fewer babies then, fewer babies now. Ivanova tells RFE/RL the current trend seems likely to continue for the foreseeable future. "For the next 10 years we will most likely live in a period of depopulation -- that is, a contraction of the population driven by natural decrease," she explains. "But the overall population might actually increase if migration can compensate for the natural decrease."

    President Vladimir Putin, who made ensuring natural population growth a top priority when he started his current term in 2018, lamented the phenomenon in his annual press conference on December 19, saying that Russia was "haunted" by the 1990s birthrate collapse. Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, now an outspoken critic of Putin who lives in the United States, is skeptical of such pronouncements, accusing the Russian government of short-sightedness and of prioritizing political goals over demographic issues. Kasyanov says he believes the inevitable demographic trough that Russia is experiencing is exacerbated by a general public mood of despondency about the future. "[People] aren't thinking about or planning their lives five or 10 years in advance like they did in the early 2000s, when birthrates started rising again," he says. "Today we have returned to 1998, when there was a crisis situation and people could only think about their lives day-to-day -- what should they do tomorrow? Their planning horizon is no more than one year." Economist Aleksei Ulyanov, a member of the government's advisory panel on demographics and family policy, tells RFE/RL that Russia "is on the brink of extinction." He says the three main problems contributing to the demographic crisis, beyond the echoes of past demographic events, are abortion and the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. He is calling for direct or indirect restrictions on all three. United Nations forecasts for Russia are even a bit more dire. The "optimistic" variant puts Russia's population at 147.3 million in 2050. The conservative estimate is 135.8 million, while the pessimistic prediction foresees a population of 124.6 million by the middle of this century. The UN projected that pessimistic prediction even further, saying it is possible Russia's population could be just 83.7 million by 2100.
    The small Russian middle class has now joined with the poorer class in rejecting bearing many children due to the moribund Russian economy and a dismal vision of the future. Immigration could certainly alleviate some population stress, but immigrants are becoming loathe to settle in Russia due to a lack of well paying jobs and Russian xenophobia for outsiders. Even Russian speaking Ukrainian war refugees have found it difficult to be accepted in Russia.


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    Re: Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age

    America should issue 4 year work visas to Russians.

    It's what got rid of royalty in Europe. Europeans got fed up with their poor leadership and left for America. European elites saw that if they didn't shape up, they wouldn't have people to rule over.

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    Re: Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Valley View Post
    Echoes Of War And Collapse: Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age





    The small Russian middle class has now joined with the poorer class in rejecting bearing many children due to the moribund Russian economy and a dismal vision of the future. Immigration could certainly alleviate some population stress, but immigrants are becoming loathe to settle in Russia due to a lack of well paying jobs and Russian xenophobia for outsiders. Even Russian speaking Ukrainian war refugees have found it difficult to be accepted in Russia.
    great news!
    "Russia is becoming increasingly a Muslim country. Out of a total population of over 146 million (including two million in annexed Crimea), it counts about 15 million people of Muslim background—even if not all are believers and even fewer practice Islam. Given forthcoming demographic changes, by around 2050 Muslims will represent between one third" How Islam Will Change Russia - Jamestown

    Karl Marx : "The bloody mire of Mongolian slavery, not the rude glory of the Norman epoch, forms the cradle of Muscovy, and modern "Russia" is but a metamorphosis of Muscovy."

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    Re: Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age

    Karl Marx : "The bloody mire of Mongolian slavery, not the rude glory of the Norman epoch, forms the cradle of Muscovy, and modern "Russia" is but a metamorphosis of Muscovy."

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    Re: Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age

    Why do you have to junk-up MY threads with your garbage?

    I don't junk up YOUR threads. Please stop.


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    Re: Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age

    write it to Marlene Laruelle , Research Professor of International Affairs and Associate Director of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University

    Marlene Laruelle - Jamestown
    Karl Marx : "The bloody mire of Mongolian slavery, not the rude glory of the Norman epoch, forms the cradle of Muscovy, and modern "Russia" is but a metamorphosis of Muscovy."

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    Re: Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age

    Quote Originally Posted by Litwin View Post
    write it to Marlene Laruelle , Research Professor of International Affairs and Associate Director of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University

    Marlene Laruelle - Jamestown
    I'm writing it to you. Plz stop. Junk up your own threads if you want, but stop junking up everyone else's threads.


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    Re: Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Valley View Post
    I'm writing it to you. Plz stop. Junk up your own threads if you want, but stop junking up everyone else's threads.
    whats about statistic, can i post it , or you roles dont allow it was well?
    Karl Marx : "The bloody mire of Mongolian slavery, not the rude glory of the Norman epoch, forms the cradle of Muscovy, and modern "Russia" is but a metamorphosis of Muscovy."

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    Re: Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age

    Quote Originally Posted by Litwin View Post
    whats about statistic, can i post it , or you roles dont allow it was well?
    If you have something to intelligent to add to the thread add it....
    'All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated and well supported in logic and argument than others.'

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    Re: Russia's Demographic Decline As Small 1990s Generation Comes Of Age

    Quote Originally Posted by Litwin View Post
    whats about statistic, can i post it , or you roles dont allow it was well?
    Fine I'mm gonna start crapping up YOUR threads. We'll see how much you like the rules then.


    "Donald Trump Is A Race Baiting Xenophobic Religious Bigot. He Doesn't Represent My Party." Senator Lindsey Graham 2015

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