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Thread: Iran Admitted to Shooting Down Ukraine's Airliner. Why Hasn't Russia Done the Same With MH17?

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    Iran Admitted to Shooting Down Ukraine's Airliner. Why Hasn't Russia Done the Same With MH17?

    Iran Admitted to Shooting Down Ukraine's Airliner. Why Hasn't Russia Done the Same With MH17?

    Iran's abrupt U-turn over the downing of Ukrainian flight PS752 inevitably tempts us to draw parallels with the Kremlin’s handling of the MH17 shootdown.


    People gather for a candlelight vigil to remember the victims of the Ukraine plane crash, at the gate of Amri
    Kabir University that some of the victims of the crash were former students of in Tehran, Iran.


    1/12/20
    In an interview on Friday I said that I expected Iran to accept responsibility for the downing of Ukrainian flight PS752 within days, and to blame it on human error during wartime. To many, this prediction appeared counter-intuitive, given that by then Iran had mobilized its whole establishment to deny any link to the incident, and to accuse anyone claiming the opposite in waging psychological warfare on Iran. Less than 24 hours later (and exactly four days after shooting down the airplane), Iran abruptly made a full confession and offered its apologies to the victims’ families, and even to the journalists it had previously accused. An operator at a missile facility at Malard, a repentant chief of Iran’s Guard’s Air Force said in a televised briefing, had mistaken the Ukrainian airliner for an oncoming cruise missile, and had had only 10 seconds to react. Tragically, he had taken the wrong turn at the fork in the road. This abrupt U-turn inevitably tempts us to draw parallels with the Kremlin’s handling of the MH17 shootdown. The similarities are indeed striking, at least at first glance. In both incidents, the armed forces of a non-liberal regime are accused of shooting hundreds of innocent civilians from the sky, likely over mistaking a commercial airliner for enemy aircraft. In both cases the regimes were quick to spread alternative fake narratives backed up by no real proof, and in both cases open source investigators were even quicker to debunk them. The differences though are not trivial. Tehran, unlike Moscow, switched course within mere days of the incident and expressed unconditional contrition. The Kremlin is in its sixth year of prevarication, fabrication, and, at best, equivocation. There are objective origins for these different behaviors.

    Iran also could not afford to play the long game that Russia thinks it can. At a peak of volatility in its relationship with the West, and with an economy decimated by sanctions, Iran needs all the friends (or at least as few enemies) as possible. The West was also pragmatic enough to hint that a mea culpa would be welcomed and might be sufficient. All these reasons combined made the full confession a pragmatic and inevitable choice. The situation with Russia in July 2014 was different. Russian military units were waging an undeclared, and thus unlawful, war on Ukrainian territory. The BUK Telar that shot down MH17 was illegally transported over the Ukrainian border in the dead of night. By all accounts, Russian active-duty soldiers accompanied and operated the sophisticated machine. A full confession would have been an admission to much more than an accidental shootdown. Russia decided not to pay the political price in 2014 by coming clean early on, and instead it opted for the long game of prevarication. Equipped with enough resources to withstand a long-term sanction game, and overconfident in its ability to use its resources as carrots and sticks to make the problem go away politically, Russia spent five years feigning innocence. This may have been an easy tactical choice, but strategically it was a doomed one.
    Moscow believes its culpability problem in regards to MH17 will simply go away with time. That is an erroneous belief. The trial for the shoot-down of MH17 will begin in the Netherlands soon. Every day evidences will be presented to the court, and also to the international community. Russia's already crappy reputation will be shown to be even worse than already perceived. There is virtually no one in the world that doesn't already believe that Russian troops are militarily occupying Ukraine's Crimea oblast and portions of Ukraine's Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Why the Kremlin continues to play this stupid game is a mystery. Similarly, there are few who believe the Kremlin's conspiracy yarns regarding Flight MH17. The forensic evidence is forceful and irrefutable.

    Related: Russia Cannot Acknowledge MH17 Role without Exposing Secret Ukraine War


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    Re: Iran Admitted to Shooting Down Ukraine's Airliner. Why Hasn't Russia Done the Same With MH17?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Valley View Post
    Iran Admitted to Shooting Down Ukraine's Airliner. Why Hasn't Russia Done the Same With MH17?

    Iran's abrupt U-turn over the downing of Ukrainian flight PS752 inevitably tempts us to draw parallels with the Kremlin’s handling of the MH17 shootdown.


    People gather for a candlelight vigil to remember the victims of the Ukraine plane crash, at the gate of Amri
    Kabir University that some of the victims of the crash were former students of in Tehran, Iran.




    Moscow believes its culpability problem in regards to MH17 will simply go away with time. That is an erroneous belief. The trial for the shoot-down of MH17 will begin in the Netherlands soon. Every day evidences will be presented to the court, and also to the international community. Russia's already crappy reputation will be shown to be even worse than already perceived. There is virtually no one in the world that doesn't already believe that Russian troops are militarily occupying Ukraine's Crimea oblast and portions of Ukraine's Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Why the Kremlin continues to play this stupid game is a mystery. Similarly, there are few who believe the Kremlin's conspiracy yarns regarding Flight MH17. The forensic evidence is forceful and irrefutable.

    Related: Russia Cannot Acknowledge MH17 Role without Exposing Secret Ukraine War
    Well, I think this is may be part of the reason. In the case of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, there were about 82 Iranian citizens who were directly shot down by the Revolutionary Guard, so the Regime suddenly felt the heat of domestic pressure. In MH17, there were no Russian citizens onboard, and they were shot down by a Russian Proxy in the Ukraine, thus plausible deniability and little domestic pressure.
    It’s in the small things that the rot starts. Do the wrong thing once, it’s easier to do it again. Do the individualistic thing once, it is easy to do it again.

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    Re: Iran Admitted to Shooting Down Ukraine's Airliner. Why Hasn't Russia Done the Same With MH17?

    Quote Originally Posted by Felis Leo View Post
    Well, I think this is may be part of the reason. In the case of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, there were about 82 Iranian citizens who were directly shot down by the Revolutionary Guard, so the Regime suddenly felt the heat of domestic pressure. In MH17, there were no Russian citizens onboard, and they were shot down by a Russian Proxy in the Ukraine, thus plausible deniability and little domestic pressure.
    The evidence shows that Russia's 53rd Anti Aircraft Brigade (normally based in Kursk, Russia) shot down flight MH17.

    It requires many months of special schooling to learn how to operate a BUK missile launcher. This is not something coal miners in eastern Ukraine can learn in a day.


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    Re: Iran Admitted to Shooting Down Ukraine's Airliner. Why Hasn't Russia Done the Same With MH17?



    The inside of a Russian BUK mobile missile system.


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    Re: Iran Admitted to Shooting Down Ukraine's Airliner. Why Hasn't Russia Done the Same With MH17?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Valley View Post


    The inside of a Russian BUK mobile missile system.
    All this Soviet technology looks so sixties ...
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    Re: Iran Admitted to Shooting Down Ukraine's Airliner. Why Hasn't Russia Done the Same With MH17?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    All this Soviet technology looks so sixties ...
    It is. But complicated to operate correctly nonetheless. You can't just sit down and shoot airplanes out of the sky like a Nintendo game as the Kremlin would have you believe.

    It requires schooling. Most rebels in eastern Ukraine are coal miners with a rudimentary education. They wouldn't have a clue as to how to operate the BUK.

    Which is why only a trained Russian unit could have done so. Why the Kremlin wanted to get the BUK in and out of eastern Ukraine as quickly as possible.

    Anyone with know-how of Russian weapon-systems realizes the rebels couldn't possibly have pulled off this BUK operation in a single day.


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