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For one, we have evidence and examples. We have the example of Easter island.
Local areas can temporarily have a higher population than it can sustain. That's not what I'm arguing. What I'm saying is that on a global scale we do not currently, nor do we have the fear of in the near future, being overpopulated. Technological advances constantly extend any theoretical maximum population that the planet can support.
Does poverty exist at the local scale. Absolutely! But we have to differentiate overpopulation and poverty. These are different issues. Most of Africa is miserably poor, but their population densities are minuscule compared to Asia or even Europe. Their problem is poverty, not overpopulation.
What has kept it at bay so far is advances in technology, and the ability to tap into resources such as the aquifer, using that technology. We are using those resources at a much higher rate than they are being replenished, and there is no practical technological solution to replace or replenish those resources. Those are facts. Now, you might speculate that technological advances will overtake that.. but that is making unreasonable assumptions.
Why is that unreasonable? This is exactly why overpopulation theorists have been wrong for centuries. They assume that technological advances cannot solve the problems, but they always do.
for example, this is an article about the Midwest aquifers. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ow-long-before-the-midwest-runs-out-of-water/
It makes a prediction. The prediction is quite possibly in the lifetime of people alive today (only 25 years).. If this hypothesis is correct, there should be a decrease in food productivity in that area around 2040 to 2070 (you can bet with man's shortsightedness, it will be close to 2040 than 2070). It has data, it has something that physically can be measured, and from that data and what can physically be measured, it can make predictions to test the model.
But then, as I've said, we can bring more water if necessary. It's not as if there is a GLOBAL water shortage. In a local area sure, droughts happen. But if it becomes a long term problem, water can be moved over long distances.