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Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

  • Total voters
    70
ReverendHellh0und said:
Who are these "true believers" you repeat ad nauseum?
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conservatives. You know, 42% of the Populace?

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StillBallin75 said:
I say again, the GOP should put up Red Forman/Archie Bunker.
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Nah.. we need to vote for this guy. :)
Here's someones book report on him.
I'm old....is this how book reports are done these day?...on video? Anyway, it has his bio and everything. More entertaining than just reading.
 
Kandahar said:
For what it's worth, here are the current probabilities on each of the Republican contenders winning the nomination according to InTrade. I'm including all of them who have at least a 1% chance, as of today:

Mitt Romney: 25.3% chance of winning the nomination
Tim Pawlenty: 18.5%
John Huntsman: 12.0%
Mitch Daniels: 10.8%
Herman Cain: 6.9%
Sarah Palin: 6.0%
Newt Gingrich: 5.0%
Michele Bachmann: 5.0%
Ron Paul: 3.1%
Chris Christie: 3.0%
Paul Ryan: 1.1%

As I see it, the top four candidates (plus Chris Christie who says he isn't running) are the ones that could actually mount a serious challenge to Obama. Their chances of winning the nomination increase if Obama's poll numbers decline, because Republicans will be more likely to nominate a potential president instead of merely a conservative standard-bearer. The other six candidates on that list are, in my opinion, vanity candidates. They won't win the nomination unless Obama looks unbeatable, and Republicans decide to nominate an ideological purist as a sacrificial lamb.
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Intrade Prediction Markets

Do you know how this intrade works and what the numbers could mean?
I found Cain bid 5.6 ask 7.2
Everyone else had less than a dollar difference, some as little as a penny.
Does this mean people are expecting his chances to up a lot? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part?
 
dangit, if i were a betting man I could make some money.

how do you bet on this thing?
 
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hey, at 10 to 1, i'll throw down 20 bucks on Mitch - and take the Wifey on a nice date to celebrate his nomination :D
 
Dav said:
In a race between the candidates listed above, I'd say Pawlenty. "Not very exciting" really isn't strong enough a negative to make up for the other candidates' flaws (Romney's health care thing, Palin's inexperience, etc).
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I disagree. Candidates can overcome flaws, but they can't overcome "not very exciting." At least not in a primary. People are voting for the one candidate who they like the best...not any number of candidates who they deem acceptable. That's why I think Pawlenty is really overrated by most of the political elite.
 
Barbbtx said:
Intrade Prediction Markets

Do you know how this intrade works and what the numbers could mean?
I found Cain bid 5.6 ask 7.2
Everyone else had less than a dollar difference, some as little as a penny.
Does this mean people are expecting his chances to up a lot? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part?
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It can mean one of two things: 1) There isn't that much volume on the contract yet because people aren't betting on Herman Cain's prospects one way or the other, or 2) You happened to view the website right after someone made a big buy/sell and it temporarily left a big gap in the bid/ask price. But really a gap of 1.6 is not that unusual.
 
cpwill said:
hey, at 10 to 1, i'll throw down 20 bucks on Mitch - and take the Wifey on a nice date to celebrate his nomination :D
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I agree about Daniels being a good buy right now on InTrade. I think Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, and Michele Bachmann (seriously) are all being undervalued by InTrade right now. And I think Tim Pawlenty and John Huntsman are being grossly overvalued.
 
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tessaesque said:
I'm neither for nor against it at this point in time. Michigan elected the governor, who asked the legislature (which Michigan elected) to pass legislation allowing him to select city managers. Though indirectly, the entire process was completed through representative government. If the city managers begin dictating outside of existing laws I'll have an issue.
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Representatives at the STATE level taking away the right of local people to elect local officials at the local level. Its a disgrace and Ronald Reagan would be spinning in his grave. I only wonder if Lincoln would be spinning faster knowing that his "government of the people, by the people and for the people" has been changed to only the final one-third of the phrase by his own party.
 
Kandahar said:
It can mean one of two things: 1) There isn't that much volume on the contract yet because people aren't betting on Herman Cain's prospects one way or the other, or 2) You happened to view the website right after someone made a big buy/sell and it temporarily left a big gap in the bid/ask price. But really a gap of 1.6 is not that unusual.
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Romney had a 10 Million + fundraiser today; i'm betting the trading is reflecting that.
 
cpwill said:
Romney had a 10 Million + fundraiser today; i'm betting the trading is reflecting that.
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Could be...Romney is up a couple percent today, but it's hard to tell how much of that is due to his fundraising and how much of it is due to other factors like Huckabee/Trump declining to run. I think InTrade is usually pretty good about ignoring the campaign minutiae if it won't ultimately make that much of a difference in the outcome.
 
haymarket said:
from the Rev



from the summary of beliefs of the TRUE BELIEVER



thanks rev for a picture perfect illustration of the True Believer. Combine that with your own previous admissions to being a tea party follower, and a rightist libertarian, and its a signed and sealed confession.

thanks again.
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Wow that was a stretch. :lol:

So a true believer is someone who disagrees with you. Who thinks that we need to cut back and have a balances budget.


My man only one person here is sounding cultish. :shrug:
 
ReverendHellh0und said:
Wow that was a stretch. :lol:

So a true believer is someone who disagrees with you. Who thinks that we need to cut back and have a balances budget.


My man only one person here is sounding cultish. :shrug:
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Socks stretch also when making a perfect fit.

You really need to read Eric Hoffer. Every time you try to discuss this issue you make it clear you do not have a clue about the term or its application. I have tried to provide selections from the writing of Hoffer, the analysis you asked for and summaries for you but it is obvious that you are only pretending to discuss this as a ruse to attack me. Surprise surprise as Gomer Pyle used to say.

The real question for you is why you are so hyper sensitive every time this perfectly acceptable term in political science and sociology comes up here? It has been used for over half a century now and even inspired universities to offer courses in Political Sociology using the work of Hoffer and his TRUE BELIEVER concept as part of the syllabus along with the work of Mills, Domhoff and others. But for some reason, for you, its like waving a red flag when you hear it.
 
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Romney's biggest problem is going to be the fact that Romney-care so closely resembles Obamacare. The 10th Amendment arguments are nice, but in the end he's going to sound like he's saying "The individual mandate was a great idea when it was my idea."

Pawlenty will appeal to some middle of the road Conservatives, but he'll have back off the fact that he once favored cap and trade. Plus his argument that he didn't raise taxes is a lie. His tirade in the SC debate about how the administration prevented jobs from moving into SC because of unions plays well there. What about the state those jobs are coming from? I bet it wouldn't play as well there.

Personally, I think that any of these clowns has an uphill climb convincing the American people that they're up to the job. As disappointing as Obama has been, I'm still not convinced that we'd be better off under a Republican administration.
 
The Republican field is rapidly becoming the Seven Dwarves .
 
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rocket88 said:
Romney's biggest problem is going to be the fact that Romney-care so closely resembles Obamacare. The 10th Amendment arguments are nice, but in the end he's going to sound like he's saying "The individual mandate was a great idea when it was my idea."

Pawlenty will appeal to some middle of the road Conservatives, but he'll have back off the fact that he once favored cap and trade. Plus his argument that he didn't raise taxes is a lie. His tirade in the SC debate about how the administration prevented jobs from moving into SC because of unions plays well there. What about the state those jobs are coming from? I bet it wouldn't play as well there.

Personally, I think that any of these clowns has an uphill climb convincing the American people that they're up to the job. As disappointing as Obama has been, I'm still not convinced that we'd be better off under a Republican administration.
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:D

Meet Mitch Daniels

Mitch Daniels Executive Career as Governor of Indiana is Impressive. When Daniels took office, the state had an $800-million deficit. He turned that into a $1.3-billion surplus. He reduced the growth in government from over 5% a year to 2.8% a year, and reduced the state workforce by 18%. He cut property taxes and moved to shift the state onto a consumption tax. The state of Indiana is now sitting on a nice big fat emergency fund, and - as other states are increasingly desperate to cover increasingly dangerous budget gaps - Indiana is trying to figure out how to refund it's tax surplus back to the taxpayers.

he's also successfully demonstrated how to reform healthcare with Indiana's state employees: Hoosiers and HSA's

......The HSA option has proven highly popular. This year, over 70% of our 30,000 Indiana state workers chose it, by far the highest in public-sector America... State employees enrolled in the consumer-driven plan will save more than $8 million in 2010 compared to their coworkers in the old-fashioned preferred provider organization (PPO) alternative. In the second straight year in which we've been forced to skip salary increases, workers switching to the HSA are adding thousands of dollars to their take-home pay... In a time of severe budgetary stress, Indiana will save at least $20 million in 2010 because of our high HSA enrollment. Mercer calculates the state's total costs are being reduced by 11% solely due to the HSA option...
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and now he's reforming entitlements in his state in the sameway: Medicaid Meets Health Savings Accounts in Indiana. The CATO guys are furious because they're worried that Daniels Reforms will work TOO well:

...I support HSAs because they allow workers to reclaim control over a portion of their health-care dollars, and I support expanding them so workers can control all their health-care dollars. Within the context of Medicaid, however, the advantages of HSAs are actually a problem. Medicaid is welfare. By offering Medicaid enrollees the freedom and opportunity for wealth accumulation that HSAs create, the Daniels plan makes Medicaid more attractive...
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In addition, Daniels pulled off what took Walker a month and a nightmare on his very first day in office. He just passed a state-wide school voucher program, is set to end Medicaid coverage for Planned Parenthood, in a move that will leave Indiana with some of the tightest abortion restrictions in the country.

The attack will be, what a hard core, conservative right winger, right? Sure he's could pick up the nomination, but he could never win a general; certainly he's turned off the moderates, the independents, and so forth?

Nope. Daniels won reelection in 2008 - the year of the Democratic sweep - by 18 points, even as his state voted for Obama He picked up 20% of the black vote and won the under-30 vote by 7 points.[/QUOTE]
 
I think the reason that Mitch Daniels isn't doing as well on InTrade as he should be, is because there's a lot of uncertainty as to whether he'll even run. The bettors seem to think there's only about a 50% chance he'll mount a bid for the presidency, compared to a 98-99% chance for Romney and Pawlenty.

If Mitch Daniels declares that he's running, I think his InTrade numbers for winning the primary will improve dramatically.
 
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that's why i want to get in now - right after the romney bump but before he declares.
 
Kandahar said:
I think the reason that Mitch Daniels isn't doing as well on InTrade as he should be, is because there's a lot of uncertainty as to whether he'll even run. The bettors seem to think there's only about a 50% chance he'll mount a bid for the presidency, compared to a 98-99% chance for Romney and Pawlenty.

If Mitch Daniels declares that he's running, I think his InTrade numbers for winning the primary will improve dramatically.
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I think his problem is his looks. He is short and he doesn't look very good either. You need to look like a president to become a president.
 
Out of the list presented I do think Romney has the best chance. I'm not sure who else will join the field. He does have the cash to put together a run.
 
haymarket said:
The Republican field is rapidly becoming the Seven Dwarves .
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The tea party candidates are dropping out like flies, first Palin, then Trump, and now Huckabee. When its all said and done I bet the tea party will end up voting for the GOP's favorite son, Romney! LOL! :sun
 
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katiegrrl0 said:
Out of the list presented I do think Romney has the best chance. I'm not sure who else will join the field. He does have the cash to put together a run.
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I saw a little of the speech he just gave somewhere that everyone said bombed. He didn't seem very presidential and he was all nervous and defensive over RomneyCare. I think he lost a lot of votes for that. If Daniels gets in Romney will start dropping.
 
Catawba said:
The tea party candidates are dropping out like flies, first Palin, then Trump, and now Huckabee. When its all said and done I bet the tea party will end up voting for the GOP's favorite son, Romney! LOL! :sun
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Palin hasn't decided yet. Cain will get the social conservative tea party vote if she doesn't run. I hope she doesn't run. She said a long time ago,she wouldn't if there was someone she thought would do as good or better of a job. I'm hoping she thinks Cain is that person.
Whoops, forgot Bachmann, she is for sure a tea party favorite too.
 
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