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Here's an exercise that I find useful for thinking about who the Republican nominee will be. Create the most realistic narrative you can for each candidate's path to the nomination, then read them and see which sound the most plausible. Here is my attempt:...
firstly: let me say that this was an impressive demonstration of a particularly good analytic technique - and one I intend to steal.
secondly: damn you, damn you sir for choosing to show it off this way, and sending me back to my alcohol in depression.
thirdly, I think you are overestimating the "establishment" model as it applies to Pawlenty. that is something that I see being a hard thing for Romney to shunt off, but one that will be much less difficult for others to avoid. Huntsman might face some due to his actual service in the Obama Administration - but his answer to that is airtight, and it is his positions that will get him in more trouble.
Pawlenty has an "establishment" issue - and one that can be dealt with, though perhaps it will require that the dealing be deft. Romney has an establishment identity.