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Is Palin's political career over?

Is Palin's political career over?

  • Yes, she's toast

    Votes: 14 51.9%
  • No, everything is fine

    Votes: 6 22.2%
  • She can fix the mess. It's not too late.

    Votes: 5 18.5%
  • Not sure, explain

    Votes: 2 7.4%

  • Total voters
    27

SheWolf

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I do think any real aspirations of her having a political career at the national level were over long ago.

That being said, it is irrelevant. She is benefitting far more by being a celebrity and media sensation, and if I were her I wouldn't give a damn about a real political career.
 
It seems to me that the only people who think she is interested in running for any office, ever again, are people who would like her to run because she is damaged goods.

To put it another way, if all her moves since leaving the governorship were calculated to set up a future in office, she is as dumb as the left says. Every move she is making is for personal gain. She really couldn't make a greater effort to become unelectable than she already has.

And I agree with most of her views.
 
The thing that's interesting is that Roger Ailes advised her to lay low... and not make herself a story when the Tuscon shooting happened. She didn't take his advise and made that blood libel video... how disastrous.

I really do think that video hurt her, and killed her political career...

But this is what the McCain camp said about her, she didn't take advise and she went rouge.. When she goes rouge, she hurts herself but blames everybody else around her. Now she might lose her job at Fox (some are saying), but she is definitely losing favoritism. As always, Bill O'Reilly says she won't answer questions... haha, and she gets pissed when she's pressed to answer the questions and demands that he stop interrupting her. I am glad the Gop is kind noticing she doesn't answer questions and rambles on in circles...

Good riddance. I will miss the lulz.
 
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It seems to me that the only people who think she is interested in running for any office, ever again, are people who would like her to run because she is damaged goods.

To put it another way, if all her moves since leaving the governorship were calculated to set up a future in office, she is as dumb as the left says. Every move she is making is for personal gain. She really couldn't make a greater effort to become unelectable than she already has.

And I agree with most of her views.

If she is unelected now, and her personal gain is what motivated her then how could you possibly think she was a good candidate when McCain picked her? She is still the same person. She was unknown to everybody except Alaskans, and she was a mess on the national stage...

She was a horrible VP pick... The left never thought she had what it took...
 
I do think any real aspirations of her having a political career at the national level were over long ago.

That being said, it is irrelevant. She is benefitting far more by being a celebrity and media sensation, and if I were her I wouldn't give a damn about a real political career.

How long till that lasts though... and will she try to make a come back?

I think the GOP may eventually tire of her, paying her to go around to speaking events... but I could be wrong. IDK. She can't keep writing crappy books either, it's just going to get old.
 
How long till that lasts though... and will she try to make a come back?

I think the GOP may eventually tire of her, paying her to go around to speaking events... but I could be wrong. IDK. She can't keep writing crappy books either, it's just going to get old.

I really don't care. If I were the GOP, personally I have a crop of other more qualified and intelligent candidates to choose from. I never agree with Ed on anything, but he's right: she's damaged goods.

Edit: So, yes I would say her political career is over. But not her pundit career, nor her media personality.
 
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If she is unelected now, and her personal gain is what motivated her then how could you possibly think she was a good candidate when McCain picked her? She is still the same person. She was unknown to everybody except Alaskans, and she was a mess on the national stage...

She was a horrible VP pick... The left never thought she had what it took...

She wasn't a horrible VP pick, nor is she the same person she was then. Being thrown to the wolves of the national media while joining up with a bungled Presidential bid definitely changes your public image and taints you. She was a pick that was handled horrendously.
 
I really don't care. If I were the GOP, personally I have a crop of other more qualified and intelligent candidates to choose from. I never agree with Ed on anything, but he's right: she's damaged goods.

Edit: So, yes I would say her political career is over. But not her pundit career, nor her media personality.

I really don't care either, for her sake... but I like to hear intelligent predictions... I guess I am bored. :)
 
She wasn't a horrible VP pick, nor is she the same person she was then. Being thrown to the wolves of the national media while joining up with a bungled Presidential bid definitely changes your public image and taints you. She was a pick that was handled horrendously.

she was a desperation pick.
 
She wasn't a horrible VP pick, nor is she the same person she was then. Being thrown to the wolves of the national media while joining up with a bungled Presidential bid definitely changes your public image and taints you. She was a pick that was handled horrendously.

I like you Zyph, but I gotta disagree.

McCain = bungled Presidential bid?
Palin = not a horrible VP pick?

I think you have your roles reversed.
 
She wasn't a horrible VP pick, nor is she the same person she was then. Being thrown to the wolves of the national media while joining up with a bungled Presidential bid definitely changes your public image and taints you. She was a pick that was handled horrendously.

She went rouge and tried to handle herself. Furthermore, politicians who are experienced and qualified don't need handlers to appear reasonably qualified for a VP position...
 
I really don't care either, for her sake... but I like to hear intelligent predictions... I guess I am bored. :)

I think if she wanted to run for office she could have a go in the primaries, but I don't believe she'd be the nominee given the other candidates the GOP currently has out there. People say that voters in party primaries usually go for the most ideologically faithful candidate. I'm not sure how true that is, given the last election, but who really knows. Even if she makes it to the general election at some point in the future, I doubt she'd win unless the Democrats put an absolute moron out there.
 
she was a desperation pick.

I would agree with that... it appears so. I just wonder if McCain saw the size of Obama's convention in Colorado the night before and panicked, and wanted to pick a young, fresh face. I him saying, it doesn't matter who you vote for now... both tickets are historical.. :lamo

I'll watch that Game Changer movie and see what it says... The book said she wasn't vetted. :shrug:
 
I would agree with that... it appears so. I just wonder if McCain saw the size of Obama's convention in Colorado the night before and panicked, and wanted to pick a young, fresh face. I him saying, it doesn't matter who you vote for now... both tickets are historical.. :lamo

I'll watch that Game Changer movie and see what it says... The book said she wasn't vetted. :shrug:

I'm curious, Republican supporters, if we went back to 2008 and McCain was able to re-pick his running mate, who would you have advised McCain to choose? (other than Sarah)
 
I think if she wanted to run for office she could have a go in the primaries, but I don't believe she'd be the nominee given the other candidates the GOP currently has out there. People say that voters in party primaries usually go for the most ideologically faithful candidate. I'm not sure how true that is, given the last election, but who really knows. Even if she makes it to the general election at some point in the future, I doubt she'd win unless the Democrats put an absolute moron out there.

I agree... I just wonder how long her fox news career can last... the books, and the paid speaking events. Alan Sharpton makes money somehow... :shrug:
 
I'm curious, Republican supporters, if we went back to 2008 and McCain was able to re-pick his running mate, who would you have advised McCain to choose? (other than Sarah)

That's a good question... :)
 
I agree... I just wonder how long her fox news career can last... the books, and the paid speaking events. Alan Sharpton makes money somehow... :shrug:

I think she's still enough of a media sensation to not need Fox News to prop her up, Sarah will be fine :)
 
I don't think Palin will hold any political office ever again, especially on a national level. She only appeals to a small portion of conservatives, not enough to get elected.
 
I think her chances to make a stab at national political office is entirely up to her. By that standard I don't think any of the stuff presented has any effect and she is "just fine". I don't think she could win the presidency, but again, I don't think she could have before the linked material, so again, no change. If she wanted to run for congress or senate, she would probably have a good chance, god help us all.
 
I like you Zyph, but I gotta disagree.

McCain = bungled Presidential bid?
Palin = not a horrible VP pick?

I think you have your roles reversed.

Absolutely. And I've made this case on the forums a few times but since I know you're relatively new I don't mind regoing over it.

McCain was flailing during the Campaign. The past 8 years he had been angering the conservative base, and he continued to do so often during the Primaries. However, upon the start of the Presidential campaign he suddenly tried to start acting as "Joe Conservative", trying hard to steer back towards the right and regrab his base. It was failing massively as people saw it, correctly imho, as phony.

On the flip side, Independents and Moderate Democrats...long thought to be the "strength" of McCain...were watching it and becoming disgusted by it. The person they thought previously at the very least had integrity and stuck to his guns was suddenly pandering to the other side. On top of that he seemed to hav abandoned much of the moderate, compromising, middle of the road language he was known and liked for. Combining that with the appeal of Obama to Independents, a group that likely has the most "casual" observers of the three sides, and to Democrats and you had a situation where McCain was doing far worse than expected with Moderates.

Going into the conventions McCain was hurting in the polls. He had lagged behind Obama for some time, had little momentum, and was hurting in the intangible arena of "message" to Obama's Hope and Change and his "historic" identity.

Going into the DNC Obama had an averaged +1.4 over McCain. By conventions end it bounced to +3.9. Typically a bounce continues for a bit after the convention. However, the Palin announcement actually stuck it at +3.9 and then trended it downwards to 3.4 till the first large waves of attacks began. Between the residual bounce, the negative press due to Republican reaction to Gustav, and the beginning attacks on Palin the Republicans went into the convention with Obama +6.4 in the polls. A number that likely would've been higher if not for the Palin announcement, which gave the only opposite movement of the polls from the start of the DNC to the start of the RNC.

By the end of the RNC the Republican Bounce took it back down to +2.6 for Obama. By four days out, similar to Obama's, it had became McCain up +2.4.

A few things to take away from this. The DNC bounced Obama 2.2 points during, 4.7 total. The RNC bounced McCain 3.8 points during, and 9.3 for the total. Another interesting note, the bounce for Obama's speech was a 1 point bounce where Palin's night bounce 1.4 (though Guilliani did speak prior to her that day).

Prior to the two conventions the Republican base was not excited. Donations were low. Motivation was low. Yet amazingly by the end of the convention the base seemed far more energized, far more interested, and the general public was far more positive towards McCain. I ask you, what was it that changed between the start of convention season and the end of convention season?

Sarah Palin.

In Palin McCain had someone that excited his base. A person with seemingly strong conservative credentials and seemed decent at articulating it in the little the base had heard her speak. Someone that, like Obama, they could see a potential future in for the party which gave them a reason to be excited. Look back at stories and records at that time and you'll see that the GOP documented a significant increase in donations and interest in the campaigns after her announcement. What it also gave them was someone who helped to counter act a bit of the message edge that Obama had in theory. Suddenly McCain's campaign was no longer just the same typical white guy going up against a historic candidate, but had an element of history as well. No longer was it just an old out of touch guy going up against a young and charismatic candidate, but was instilled with youth, charisma, and enthusiasm as well.

Sarah Palin was a great choice.

Then came the bungel.

The first bungel is apparently when they made the choice. The McCain campaign should've been searching for, vetting, and picking a VP candidate from the start of this whole thing. If they had vetted Palin at all they would've realized she was not ready quite yet for the national media. Which would've meant she either needed to be picked early and not announced publicly, giving her a month or so unknown to study up. OR they should've realized it would've been too much work and gone another direction. Instead, by all accounts, they chose her rather late in the process. That's on them, not on Palin.

This led to the next bungel, keeping her from the media for the first little bit. Now, it was a necessitiy because she wasn't ready. However, she wasn't ready due to bungle #1 up above. This then, correctly, led to attacks on her being "protected" or "sheltered" and just immedietely gave fuel for the media without any real way to counter it. Not smart.

Bungle #3, and the biggest bungle in my mind, was where they went from there. It shouldn't have taken a genius to know Palin wasn't going to massively appeal to the middle. That wasn't even her point. To say she was supposed to appeal to the middle is like saying that a basketball is meant to be hit with a baseball bat. Her use was motivating, exciting, and encouraging the base because they were completely disinterested in McCain. Without an energized base you stand no hope of ever winning a national election. And in that, they did act correctly...they let her go out, say the right things, and court the support and excitement of conservatives.

What they bungled at...and due to the damage already done it would've been a hard sell anyways...was what they had McCain do. Steadfast ideological candidates bring on Moderate VP's to try and win over independents to a campaign thinking that the Prez will pick people not just on ideology. On the flip side, if you pick an ideological VP then your Prez needs to be reaching to the middle. McCain was known best as a moderate guy and his phoney baloney "Joe Conservative" act was not being bought by almost anyone in the base. His best strategic act here, after Palins nomination, would have been to drop the act and run screaming back to the middle trying to woo at least some independents back to his side. As I said, difficult based on his earlier actions, but at least it would've added SOMETHING to the campaign.

Instead, McCain continued to try and be Joe Conservative, continued trying to paint him and Palin alike rather than as complimentary pieces, and continued to try and puff up his Republican credentials. Essentially, he was pandering to the same voting crowd as Palin but doing a worse job at it, which didn't really help anything.

Due to this, McCain lost more independents that were turned off by the VP pick and had no reason to stay with that side since McCain wasn't even presenting himself as a moderate. However, as I said he was already hurting in Independents from the fact they largely were swinging Obama from the start.

I think that had McCain's camp made the choice earlier, giving Palin time while unknown to study up so she could come on the scene ready day one, and then properly had McCain push his Moderate credentials while using Palin to sway the base that the election would've been far closer.

I also think that if McCain had nominated others people suggested, like Joe Lieberman, that instead of a large defeat he likely would've been handed a Mondale type loss. McCain/Lieberman, with McCain playing Joe Conservative and Lieberman being...well lieberman...is not something I think would've swayed many Independents or Democrats away from Obama while at the same time would've completely deflated the base. Instead of having a relatively strong base and weak independents, McCain would've likely instead had a weak base and a mildly weak independents.

Palin helped propel McCain into the positives with polls for the first time in quite some time. She helped generate a great deal of money, excitement, and votes from within the base. And she gave McCain the chance to be himself and try to appeal to his normal constituency.

Palin wasn't a perfect pick, but she was far from a bad pick, and likely caused the Election to actually be closer than it had been with some of the other suggested names that had floated around at the time.
 
she was a desperation pick.

As I stated above, with the way they apparently picked her, I absolutely agree....

that's a bungle on the McCain camps part, not hers. She was a good pick, picked in the wrong fashion, and then used poorly in a larger campaign scope after that.
 
as long as she can keep the left busy crapping themselves and screaming about how much she sucks...it's all good. ;)
 
Absolutely. And I've made this case on the forums a few times but since I know you're relatively new I don't mind regoing over it.

McCain was flailing during the Campaign. The past 8 years he had been angering the conservative base, and he continued to do so often during the Primaries. However, upon the start of the Presidential campaign he suddenly tried to start acting as "Joe Conservative", trying hard to steer back towards the right and regrab his base. It was failing massively as people saw it, correctly imho, as phony.

On the flip side, Independents and Moderate Democrats...long thought to be the "strength" of McCain...were watching it and becoming disgusted by it. The person they thought previously at the very least had integrity and stuck to his guns was suddenly pandering to the other side. On top of that he seemed to hav abandoned much of the moderate, compromising, middle of the road language he was known and liked for. Combining that with the appeal of Obama to Independents, a group that likely has the most "casual" observers of the three sides, and to Democrats and you had a situation where McCain was doing far worse than expected with Moderates.

Going into the conventions McCain was hurting in the polls. He had lagged behind Obama for some time, had little momentum, and was hurting in the intangible arena of "message" to Obama's Hope and Change and his "historic" identity.

Going into the DNC Obama had an averaged +1.4 over McCain. By conventions end it bounced to +3.9. Typically a bounce continues for a bit after the convention. However, the Palin announcement actually stuck it at +3.9 and then trended it downwards to 3.4 till the first large waves of attacks began. Between the residual bounce, the negative press due to Republican reaction to Gustav, and the beginning attacks on Palin the Republicans went into the convention with Obama +6.4 in the polls. A number that likely would've been higher if not for the Palin announcement, which gave the only opposite movement of the polls from the start of the DNC to the start of the RNC.

By the end of the RNC the Republican Bounce took it back down to +2.6 for Obama. By four days out, similar to Obama's, it had became McCain up +2.4.

A few things to take away from this. The DNC bounced Obama 2.2 points during, 4.7 total. The RNC bounced McCain 3.8 points during, and 9.3 for the total. Another interesting note, the bounce for Obama's speech was a 1 point bounce where Palin's night bounce 1.4 (though Guilliani did speak prior to her that day).

Prior to the two conventions the Republican base was not excited. Donations were low. Motivation was low. Yet amazingly by the end of the convention the base seemed far more energized, far more interested, and the general public was far more positive towards McCain. I ask you, what was it that changed between the start of convention season and the end of convention season?

Sarah Palin.

In Palin McCain had someone that excited his base. A person with seemingly strong conservative credentials and seemed decent at articulating it in the little the base had heard her speak. Someone that, like Obama, they could see a potential future in for the party which gave them a reason to be excited. Look back at stories and records at that time and you'll see that the GOP documented a significant increase in donations and interest in the campaigns after her announcement. What it also gave them was someone who helped to counter act a bit of the message edge that Obama had in theory. Suddenly McCain's campaign was no longer just the same typical white guy going up against a historic candidate, but had an element of history as well. No longer was it just an old out of touch guy going up against a young and charismatic candidate, but was instilled with youth, charisma, and enthusiasm as well.

Sarah Palin was a great choice.

Then came the bungel.

The first bungel is apparently when they made the choice. The McCain campaign should've been searching for, vetting, and picking a VP candidate from the start of this whole thing. If they had vetted Palin at all they would've realized she was not ready quite yet for the national media. Which would've meant she either needed to be picked early and not announced publicly, giving her a month or so unknown to study up. OR they should've realized it would've been too much work and gone another direction. Instead, by all accounts, they chose her rather late in the process. That's on them, not on Palin.

This led to the next bungel, keeping her from the media for the first little bit. Now, it was a necessitiy because she wasn't ready. However, she wasn't ready due to bungle #1 up above. This then, correctly, led to attacks on her being "protected" or "sheltered" and just immedietely gave fuel for the media without any real way to counter it. Not smart.

Bungle #3, and the biggest bungle in my mind, was where they went from there. It shouldn't have taken a genius to know Palin wasn't going to massively appeal to the middle. That wasn't even her point. To say she was supposed to appeal to the middle is like saying that a basketball is meant to be hit with a baseball bat. Her use was motivating, exciting, and encouraging the base because they were completely disinterested in McCain. Without an energized base you stand no hope of ever winning a national election. And in that, they did act correctly...they let her go out, say the right things, and court the support and excitement of conservatives.

What they bungled at...and due to the damage already done it would've been a hard sell anyways...was what they had McCain do. Steadfast ideological candidates bring on Moderate VP's to try and win over independents to a campaign thinking that the Prez will pick people not just on ideology. On the flip side, if you pick an ideological VP then your Prez needs to be reaching to the middle. McCain was known best as a moderate guy and his phoney baloney "Joe Conservative" act was not being bought by almost anyone in the base. His best strategic act here, after Palins nomination, would have been to drop the act and run screaming back to the middle trying to woo at least some independents back to his side. As I said, difficult based on his earlier actions, but at least it would've added SOMETHING to the campaign.

Instead, McCain continued to try and be Joe Conservative, continued trying to paint him and Palin alike rather than as complimentary pieces, and continued to try and puff up his Republican credentials. Essentially, he was pandering to the same voting crowd as Palin but doing a worse job at it, which didn't really help anything.

Due to this, McCain lost more independents that were turned off by the VP pick and had no reason to stay with that side since McCain wasn't even presenting himself as a moderate. However, as I said he was already hurting in Independents from the fact they largely were swinging Obama from the start.

I think that had McCain's camp made the choice earlier, giving Palin time while unknown to study up so she could come on the scene ready day one, and then properly had McCain push his Moderate credentials while using Palin to sway the base that the election would've been far closer.

I also think that if McCain had nominated others people suggested, like Joe Lieberman, that instead of a large defeat he likely would've been handed a Mondale type loss. McCain/Lieberman, with McCain playing Joe Conservative and Lieberman being...well lieberman...is not something I think would've swayed many Independents or Democrats away from Obama while at the same time would've completely deflated the base. Instead of having a relatively strong base and weak independents, McCain would've likely instead had a weak base and a mildly weak independents.

Palin helped propel McCain into the positives with polls for the first time in quite some time. She helped generate a great deal of money, excitement, and votes from within the base. And she gave McCain the chance to be himself and try to appeal to his normal constituency.

Palin wasn't a perfect pick, but she was far from a bad pick, and likely caused the Election to actually be closer than it had been with some of the other suggested names that had floated around at the time.

I disagree, but I think you've elaborated enough on your position and backed it up with a decent enough argument that I respect your opinion a lot.

Thanks, SB.
 
I disagree, but I think you've elaborated enough on your position and backed it up with a decent enough argument that I respect your opinion a lot.

Thanks, SB.

NP. I don't think that its completely off the wall for people to think she may've been a bad pick, or likely hurt him. I do have problems with people who state it as if its an unquestionable, undisputable, without a doubt fact. Specifically, those of either of the two I just listed who state it with little to no real facts backing up their suggestion....or using polls or peoples feelings about her from months to years AFTER the fact rather than accurately and honestly looking at information, atmosphere, and numbers from the actual campaign season.

Its one of those topics that irks at me, because I'm actually the living example of why it isn't exactly accurate. Right now I'm someone that's not a big Palin fan, would likely not vote Republican if she was the candidate, and in general disagree with a lot of her actions. Yet, the reason I voted in the 2008 election for the Republican ticket was largely due to her. I had a long discussion over PM's with WI Crippler why the pick excited me and got me interested in the election when prior to it I was extremely disinterested from an active stand point and rather disappointed. If it had been a Lieberman or a Graham as the VP pick I would've voted 3rd party or likely not voted. If it was a Romney or Guilliani type that just seemed more of the same I probably wouldn't have voted for the ticket either. Palin was primarily what got me to the polls and more than that got me actively talking about and pushing the ticket leading up to the election.
 
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