Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

reefedjib said:

Why is debt growth exponential? Is it because we run a deficit and add the interest to the debt as well?

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it's because government programs never die.

I was watching "Time Warp" last night and discovered the National Endowment for the Arts gave a man taxpayer dollars to blow bubbles.

The demand is always for more and more completely unconstitutional programs, and the politicians are eager to buy the votes of these people, and be damned to those who say nay.

Kandahar said:

False. The United States has ALWAYS made good on its debts.

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Depending on who you listen to, the United States currently has some 60-120 TRILLION dollars of unfunded obligations.

That word "always".....should always be used catiously.

I've always avoided breaking my legs.

But, then again, I didn't purposely impose Socialist Security on a formerly free nation, either, now did I?

elbatrop said:

Compound interest and fractional reserve, neither make it impossible to grow without debt getting way ahead of actual productive organic growth but it tends to get out of hand very quickly when not reigned in tightly.......they took the reigns off a long time ago. They also require growth to function, interest is never created, it just gets skimmed off the top. Money in fractional reserve debt based system only enters the system when loaned into existence, it leaves when loans are paid off or defaulted on. Interest is constantly sucked out which means if lending stops the system goes into a deflationary spiral because money is leaving the system and not being replaced faster than it leaves. This is what the US is in now and Japan has been in for about 20 years. Japan and the UK will likley default and soon, less than 5 years I'd say, probably sooner. UK has already basically defaulted once already and was forced to go to the IMF, it didn't learn from it.

Failure will happen when the govt an no longer finance its debt or borrow to finance it, at some point afterward the world will want more and more dollars to buy goods and the value of the dollar will drop to nothing. Once the world figures out that a country can't and won't honor its debt it defaults, they force it via currency value as the world now has floating fiat currency with no backing at all. First signs are failing bond auctions. The US cheated in 2009 and the FED printed money and bought the debt allowing the US govt to function, it is a self defeating thing to do long term though. Euphemistically called "quantitative easing" with excuse being it is to keep long term rates down but the fact of the matter is the world doesn't have enough cash to loan all the nations wanting to sell bonds to finance their deficits. Meanwhile it sits on the FED balance sheet and they face an avalanche of more debt turnover coming, double what 2009 was. It spirals quick and is nearly impossible to reign in once started.

isn't so much inflation per se that is dangerous but your currency going to zero value

inflation is the increase of money supply AND credit RELATIVE to economic activity

deflation is the opposite

symptoms of inflation are rising prices, but that is just a symptom, prices can change in a fiat regime regardless of money supply and credit or economic activity

the US went from less than a dollar of debt to make $1 of GDP to about $5 of debt to make $1 of GDP in a period of 30 years as its manufacturing leverage disappeared but kept acting like it was 30 years ago anyway, it blew up and now we are in a depression

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Thanks. I had to look up several terms again. This was interresting: http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/09/deflation_will_negate_inflatio.html

So what is the best course of action, assuming we aren't already to far gone in the death spiral? Cut the deficit, right? But having sufficient government spending to prop up GDP helps the economy recover. Which is the better short-term vs long-term solution?

creativedreams said:

China is getting ready for something big as is Russia...

China has been hacking into the U.S. Military and Government Networks waging a cyber-war.

July 2009: There were a series of coordinated attacks against major government, media, financial websites in the United States...

Ghost Net: is the name given to a large scale cyber operation discovered in March 2009. It's command and control infrastructure is based mainly in China. This operation by China has infiltrated high value government offices, political, economic, media computer systems in the U.S. and 103 countries.

Titan Rain: is U.S. Governments designated name given to a series of coordinated attacks on American State Sponsored Computer Systems and Corporate Espionage since 2003 that were Chinese in origin and the result of Chinese Military Hackers gathering information on U.S. Systems. This attack gained access to copy information from many U.S. Military Networks.

Moonlight Maze: is U.S. Governments designated name given to a series of coordinated attacks on U.S. Computer Systems in 1999. The attacks were traced back to Moscow Russia. Those cyber warfare attacks obtained large amounts of data including classified Military Codes and Missile Guidance Systems.


For those of you who have some stereotype of China's Military capabilities I can give you a rude awakening that the U.S. propaganda bubble would not show you...
YouTube- China Military Power 2009 ä¸*国大陆军队2009预告

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Yep, more circumstantial conspiracy bull****. I don't know why anyone even bothers with you ... :roll:

reefedjib said:

Thanks. I had to look up several terms again.

So what is the best course of action, assuming we aren't already to far gone in the death spiral? Cut the deficit, right? But having sufficient government spending to prop up GDP helps the economy recover. Which is the better short-term vs long-term solution?

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Phasing out unnecessary spending, phasing out unconstitutional, and hence illegal, spending, cutting taxes to spur economic growth.

Implement a short-term emergency program to build brick walls in front of national and state legislatures, from which shall also be erected gallows for the education of the politicians as to who the real masters of the country are and what their final answer to certain problem causing people might be.

But first....cease all new spending, cut taxes to spur growth. If Obama says something is a "mistake of the past", we should probably be doing it.

reefedjib said:

Thanks. I had to look up several terms again.

So what is the best course of action, assuming we aren't already to far gone in the death spiral? Cut the deficit, right? But having sufficient government spending to prop up GDP helps the economy recover. Which is the better short-term vs long-term solution?

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well it is of course more complicated and nuanced but that is the simplest way I could put it, please check my work, I am no wizard that's for sure but I do understand the mechanics and a lot of stuff that is not taught in econ class !! how monetary systems work is one of those items not taught

best course of action?

short term: cut discretionary spending and by quite a bit and for the US that means mostly military

enact reforms AND enforce existing law and clear out the insolvent, especially the banks, some of the old law that got undone should be brought back

work with the states and people and make it abundantly clear what is going on and stop lying to them, keep some honest economic stats for a change too.......if things are bad then say so, don't lie about it a hide from it, lying will bite you later

protect your people, ya it sucks but it is far easier to feed and take care of your unemployed than face a revolt and its cheaper than the alternatives in the long run

get ready for a protratced time of basically no growth, make sure state and local govts are aware of our situation.........that way they don't over hire or make pension promises they can't keep

kill the FED, set rates at market detrmined levels, just do it carefully and slowly, restore money management back to the govt where it Constitutionally resides anway

work with other nations not against them, they are in this too, no need for currency and trade wars right now

stop borrowing, if you can't afford it then don't buy it

mid term:
Phase out the subsidies that favor high energy industry and low labor production so people can get back to work. We are a developed post industrial economy, act like it. The govt could save huge money here. People will work hard rather than starve or take hand outs if given a reasonable chance(imagine that).

put the nation on a crash energy diet, use incentives not increased taxes to do this

we really need to get honest about what the govt's mandated services are vs what it can actually afford to provide as well, by like 40% or so

break up the too big to fail, use anti-trust laws and break the monopolies up

do all that, then start lowering some of taxes to a reasonable level as revenues fall in line with actual expenses

long termray it works

***********************

current path and policy:
it mirrors Japan except we are a net importer, but covering up debt with funny money and pumping up govt spending won't work, we can't borrow that much and for long enough nor does it fix what ails us

Like Hoover Obama is pretending the fraudulent and corrupt have changed and they haven't. They have dug in and latched onto the govt money spigot. This won't end well.

I could go on but all it would do is piss me off

elbatrop said:

short term: cut discretionary spending and by quite a bit and for the US that means mostly military

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It does?

The FIRST step in determing what is acceptable discretionary spending is found in the US Constitution.

No social entitlement program fits inside Article 1, Section 8, ergo, those programs should be ceased forthwith.

Oops, that's an over 60% hack in the budget immediately.

Some military expenditures are wasteful, unnecessary, and probably unconstitutional, such as our defense of Europe.

But, that bit about China, Russia, et al, hacking our cyber systems and in general presenting a clear and present danger cannot be ignored. National Defense is the #1 Constitutional priority of the Federal Government.

Scarecrow Akhbar said:

It does?

The FIRST step in determing what is acceptable discretionary spending is found in the US Constitution.

No social entitlement program fits inside Article 1, Section 8, ergo, those programs should be ceased forthwith.

Oops, that's an over 60% hack in the budget immediately.

Some military expenditures are wasteful, unnecessary, and probably unconstitutional, such as our defense of Europe.

But, that bit about China, Russia, et al, hacking our cyber systems and in general presenting a clear and present danger cannot be ignored. National Defense is the #1 Constitutional priority of the Federal Government.

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Ya, go ahead and cut 150 million people off from their income, and do it all at once, don't complain when you don't get the result you think you will. Besides the US is already honor bound to keep much of he entitlement stuff going for another couple decades, wanna phase it out after that though that process could be started. It is responsible for the promises already made.

Yes defense or in the case if the US offense could be cut way way back and still stay nice and safe and sound at home, that too would have to be done slowly but we aren't locked into long term stuff with it. Iraq and Afghanistan alone will have back end costs for at least a decade if the US left right now.

Defense as far as cyber security is not big or expensive, and US military servers got hacked and offloaded already, of course Clinton and Bush never said anything but it but it happened to both of them. Defense of the nation itself also doesn't have to be expensive, far cheaper than maintaining an empire that will have to be ended sooner or later because it is unaffordable. Yes the Constitution requires defense, it does NOT however mean bankrupting yourself and still being unable to defend yourself which the US military is unable to do anyway. It is ill suited to most threats this nation faces. Defense is also much more than just hardware and men, if you can't support it financially and with resources you waste your time. It is only mandated to defend the homeland, nothing more, nothing less. It isn't even set up for it.

elbatrop said:

kill the FED, set rates at market detrmined levels, just do it carefully and slowly, restore money management back to the govt where it Constitutionally resides anway

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Could you talk about what you mean with this one a bit more? How is the FED bad? Are you talking stopping monetary policy and going solely with kensyian?

we really need to get honest about what the govt's mandated services are vs what it can actually afford to provide as well, by like 40% or so

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The thing that gets me is that we used to spend a much higher percentage of our government spending on defense and security. The introduction of entitlements, followed by the "unexpected" growth due to longer lifespans, sucks up a growing percentage of our spending and it is mandatory, so defense is the one on the chopping block. We need to finish our overseas commitments. And to think they have been trying to introduce MORE entitlements with health care reform. They ought to go ahead and ax SS, we know its coming.

I could go on but all it would do is piss me off

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Thanks for the info. It was new to me - I haven't been paying attention. Don't get pissed off!

Global War is already happening, but they are called "Proxy Wars".

Does it matter if the Iranian Revolutionary Guard actually boxes up and ships to Afghanistan to fight against Americans? They send supplies and resources to fighters in Afghanistan.

reefedjib said:

Could you talk about what you mean with this one a bit more? How is the FED bad? Are you talking stopping monetary policy and going solely with kensyian?



The thing that gets me is that we used to spend a much higher percentage of our government spending on defense and security. The introduction of entitlements, followed by the "unexpected" growth due to longer lifespans, sucks up a growing percentage of our spending and it is mandatory, so defense is the one on the chopping block. We need to finish our overseas commitments. And to think they have been trying to introduce MORE entitlements with health care reform. They ought to go ahead and ax SS, we know its coming.



Thanks for the info. It was new to me - I haven't been paying attention. Don't get pissed off!

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The FED is a private cartel of banks, it is fully independent of the government and is not a government agency and the money the Treasury prints for it known as "Federal Reserve" notes is NOT US GOVT MONEY, it enjoys backing of the govt but isn't govt money. The IRS is their enforcement squad at least a part of it. Originally when the FED law ws passed on Christmas eve 1913 which was followed by the IRS taxes were basically to pay the FED back for paying the Treasury to print Fed Resrve notes. Didn't take long for that to get perverted.

The FED is made up of 12 member or charter banks if you will, they bought into the system and pay a 6% fee to the FED system yearly on the Federal Reserve stock they bought in with. For that fee they recieve lots of perks like being able to issue money to non FED banks which they get paid interest, borrow money at zero interest or ultra low rates. They are also in charge of some of the regulation of the other banks as well as themselves. They set the lending rate between banks for overnight loans. There is a whole section of US Title 12 that describes all the regs and laws they have to follow, some of which they flat out do not follow or enforce, part of the reason how this crisis happened. The FED is our money control outsourced basically and it is the most profitable and protected money making machine scheme ever. The ownership of the FED system has never really been disclosed but it does include foreign interests, can you say security risk? I think you can. It repatriates its "profits" after expenses to the Treasury each year but if you look at their activities and balance sheet what of it is revealed anyway and its a joke.

The FED's mission statement is to maintain economic growth, full employment, and stabilize interest rates. They have failed and many times. Its actions have for the most part made the cycles of business and the economy be more severe than they would have been if left on their own.

Our Constitution already established standards for our money, which btw includes that paper can be redeemed for gold. The founding fathers knew how money and power could be abused, they weren't stupid. The FED is for all practical purposes is a parasite that skims money off of everyone's work and enjoys a situation where it never gets auditied, answers to nobody, and makes a killing in good or bad times. Despite its claims it is also quite political.

As far as th budget, well the offical military budget is now about $700 billion, but that's just a part. The rest is off budget or buried in the rest of the budget. The CIA budget is never released. In reality the govt spends a little over a trillion per year on it plus back end expenses. Yep, that is about 50% of the budget. Always remember the govt lies about its finances and economic stats, ALWAYS. Nothing is what it appears on the surface.

For example, the unemployment stat they use nowadays is U-3, its about 10.3%, U-6 is 17.x%, unemployment using Depression era counting is well over 25% !! Back then unemployed was anyone without a job over the age of 16. Same with the inflation stats, they are adjusted to look better and cut their entitelment spending by staying behind the actual inflation rate, meaning if you are on a fixed income you are slowly sinking. All the stats are gamed and massaged.

Kandahar said:

If China makes a serious push to take over Siberia, a war could result that could go nuclear. If Russia decides to reignite the Cold War and reassert its control over Eastern Europe by turning off the gas, tensions between the US and Russia would increase dramatically and might eventually result in a global war. But I don't think it's likely to happen. China will probably come to own Siberia through relatively peaceful means, and Russia won't be able to exert its influence over Eastern Europe for much longer.

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What? Now that is an absurd scenario. China trying to "take" a piece of land from a nuclear power. Hardly. First of all, Russia is a big nuclear power. Secondly. China is having a "peaceful rice" :mrgreen:, thirdly they wouldnt be so stupid.

Kandahar said:

The world is not going to run out of resources anytime soon. That's just silly, and shows a lack of understanding for how economics and/or technological progress works.

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I mean, not only resources, but we are heading for a large range of global disasters, and the only ones tryging to change their way of living is for the most of it Europe. China is growing up and probably will also take a lead in that area and create eventually a whole new type of sustainable society, while Europe will struggle but make it possible, and America refuse to change, and fail.

Kandahar said:

:roll:
Are you really 25? Because you sound like you're about 14.

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What an adult way of debating. :roll:

:lol:

Kandahar said:

I haven't heard of any European or Chinese politicians of any stature who share your "THE WORLD IS DOOMED RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11" mentality. Could it be that you just made that up, in yet another lame attempt to bash the United States?

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Nah, I never said that. You read terror out of fear.

I am saying, the WORLD MUST CHANGE, or else we will just dig ourself deeper into a global disaster. Europe for one is trying to avoid this, and is already well on their way to building a more sustainable society with a less disasterous effect of our living. While China is progressing so fast and in a modern time where its easy to just build keepinig those things in mind. The US on the other hand is doing nothing, just defending capitalism, nationalism, selfishness and greed as good values. Which might make the global disaster only regional to the Americas, parts of Asia and perhaps parts of Africa, instead of the whole world. But that depends on Europe actually having the guts to go through a difficult reformation, and China actually living up to its vast potential.

creativedreams said:

A Russian General has stated his wanting of Russia to join with China and other countries to for a Globally Geographically Strategic Alliance.

He said that Total War is the only way to stop the U.S. from it's influence on all of Mankind.

I have always predicted a blindsided attack on the U.S. by China for many reasons, in the future, and now I believe it will be a joint attack by China/Russia when they have lulled the U.S. to feel secure.

That same Russian General has publicly stated his belief that the U.S. Government's story for 9/11 is a fairytale and it was a staged event to change U.S. policies.

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Hmm.. Russian generals say a lot of things. But I think this would not be a good strategy.
A good strategy for Russia for example would be weakening the US by supporting terror states and terrorist attacks on the US, to treble them into becoming even more of a fascist police state. Once the US has totally transformed from an open society to a closed one, Russia has won, especially considering they are transforming from a closed society to an open one.

China will not attack the US(I believe) they will just kick it when its down to further weaken it. But not by war or violence, just in diplomatic and economic ways.

Dav said:

It was the biggest single attack on the U.S., well, ever. Not exactly "relatively small".

We went to war because of Pearl Harbor, and less people died there than on 9/11.

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:2bigcry::shoot

Maybe its time you people get the f*** over that. Its a tiny attack, there are 6 billion people on this earth, 3000 people died. So ****ing what. 16000 children die from starvation every day. Learn to put things into perspective man before resorting to nationalist arguments.

Dav said:

I'm done here; I feel no need to argue with conspiracy theorists.

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Its people like you who unknowingly support facist regimes(US republicans) with ignorance.

Realize it already. Your country has changed from the most open society in the world to a semi closed society. You lost the war on terror before it even started.

Gardener said:

Are you sure it wasn't this fellow who told you that?

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Nah, this fellow told me it.

Coronado said:

China and Russia don't get along, and they never have. Even a casual observer of history knows this.

Unless that is part of some sort of super-secret conspiracy only you know of ... :roll:

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China and Russia have military cooperation at very high levels. Not even a secret that China buys Russian technology and that they have had big military drills together. You can even find it in the censored US mainstream media.

Partisan said:

We should drop a bomb on Mecca, maybe it will ease our paranoia.......

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drop a bomb on washington and ease the rest of the worlds

Kandahar said:

Wait a second. So you're saying China views the US as a declining power...and therefore they're going to ally with RUSSIA?! Russia is the most obviously declining power in the world, much moreso than the US.

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Delusional. Russia is growing again. US is in a long term collapse, that is reality. Also US is becoming a closed society while Russia is becoming an open society.

So, you are wrong. Also your defintion of "power" is wrong.

Kandahar said:

There is a much bigger risk of war between Russia and China, than between either of them and the US. You're right that China wants energy, but it has its eye on Siberia for precisely that reason. For now, China is content to trade with Russia (with terms favorable to China). But in a couple decades when China is much stronger and Russia is much weaker, China might decide that it wants Siberia for itself. The region is already becoming ethnically and linguistically Chinese.

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Where to you get this concpiracy stuff from? :shock:

Kandahar said:

The United States is one of the safest sovereign debts on the planet (the 7th safest as of Q4 2009).

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:2funny:

Yes, on paper and in their own propaganda. Nazi Germany was probably also pretty safe to borrow to in 1940-1942.

elbatrop said:

the US is a declining power, has been for quite awhile, but China isn't allyng with Russia for defensive reasons other than having reliable oil supply is defensive in its own right and Russia is the #1 or #2 world oil producer and has been for a couple years now. The US on the otherhand refuses to pay its debts, conducts its finances like a criminal, and is a net oil importer with waning supply sources. China isn't stupid they see this too.

The United States unless it very very abruptly changes its ways or the rest of the world falls apart entirely will more than likley default, it is economically screwed. It is making the same mistakes most empires do including Russia, Great Britain, and even Rome. You might wanna take a look at what quantitative easing is and really means, round two will be coming shortly. Ponzi scheme economics doesn't last very long.

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Thanks for saying what I would say.

So who will jail them and why is the US military budget increasing at record speeds? :roll:

elbatrop said:

Well nations tend to go to war when they get antsy for resources and have large militaries to use rather than do things in a more honorable and forthright fashion. Having a large military and using it constantly means having vast resources to use to begin with.

many wars have been fought over resources, and resources are going to get very very tight, many nations will be forced to go without, many will fight rather than adapt or change

one of these days the little proxy wars and skirmishes will turn into something more serious, I think it is very likely it will happen at some stage soon

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How would the US react if Russia invaded Iraq with Iran helping them?

elbatrop said:

some nations even resort to lying and fabricating justification over it, as a general rule man isn't too smart collectively

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:fueltofir
NAZI Germany was experts at this!!!

Many people, even a global genious such as George Soros, compare the methods of the US with those of NAZI Germany(and he lived in fear from them). So have I done for a long time.

(DISCLAIMER)
To Republicans:
NOT SAYING HERE THAT THE US IS SOCIALIST.

Cephus said:

So long as nations are stupid, the possibility of wide-spread warfare exists.

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Then we are doomed. :boohoo:

Cephus said:

True, but individuals don't usually have unrestricted access to "big red buttons" that launch nukes, thankfully.

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Only the most sly and cunning liars have that, they are called "elected presidents". :thinking

Kandahar said:

China wouldn't have a reliable oil supplier without allying with Russia? Oil is a commodity traded on a global market; it really doesn't matter who is allied with who, as long as you have the cash to buy it.

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They could just invade Iraq. More easily so than the US.

Kandahar said:

False. The United States has ALWAYS made good on its debts.

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CURRENT events, not past history, form future trends.

Kandahar said:

The finances of the United States are MUCH more transparent than those of either Russia or China.

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That doesnt mean anything. Probably only means you underestimate them.

Kandahar said:

China is also a net oil importer. :roll:

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China is about to become the world largest producer and spender of renewable energy, ahead of Europe, Germany in particular, and the US.

Kandahar said:

If a default is eminent as you say, then I suggest you take your life savings and bet against US sovereign debt. You'll make a fortune when you're right, since nearly every investor in the world will be betting against you. :roll:

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I am betting mine against over market valuated US companies. European companies with better sales and profit margins for example still have lower market capitalization. I will place my bets there and put some cash in Chinese banks, in their currency. No way I will buy anything in dollars.

Kandahar said:

Note: Randomly using the phrase "Ponzi scheme" doesn't make you sound like you know what you're talking about. It just makes you sound silly to those of us who actually know what the phrase means. :2wave:

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So, what exactly is the largest US industry? And what exactly would the US be without financial manipulation? I know for a fact the US GDP would be reduced much more than in any other country in the world.

Coronado said:

Yep, more circumstantial conspiracy bull****. I don't know why anyone even bothers with you ... :roll:

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Perhaps because its equally or more true than the conspiracy garbage you throw out?

The next war is a regional war between Russia and Poland. The US will support Poland. Russia will lose.

After that, 30-40 years down the road, the US will fight Japan and Turkey.

reefedjib said:

The next war is a regional war between Russia and Poland. The US will support Poland. Russia will lose.

After that, 30-40 years down the road, the US will fight Japan and Turkey.

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could you explain your reasoning?

spud_meister said:

could you explain your reasoning?

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I am taking it from the book [ame=http://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/038551705X]Amazon.com: The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (9780385517058): George Friedman: Books[/ame]. It is by George Friedman. George Friedman runs [ame="http://www.stratfor.com/"]STRATFOR[/ame].

America is going no where and will be the superpower for the next century. We will develop our space-based command and control, with sensors, comms, space defense, etc. Evidently 2 constellations of satellites will for platforms upon which to guide long range bombers to their specific targets. Global overwatch.

Russia is trying to preserve its regional influence before its demographics catch up to it and it can no longer sustain its economy. In the next 5-10 years it is going to try and take back the old communist states beyond Belarus and the Ukraine. Poland will oppose them with a coalition of states (Romania, Check, Slovokia, ...) and with our help will defeat Russia. Russia will lose its regional power forever. It will become a resource state only.

Longer term, and thus more speculatively, the three growing countries of the coming decades are Poland, Japan and Turkey. Poland is our ally and runs the regional coalition there. Turkey will control the ME and have a fair bit of its Ottoman empire back. Japan will be a powerhouse import partner of China. Japan and Turkey will try to sneak attack our Space resources. It will be a quick war and we will retaliate against their resources (space, comms, industry) and knock em back a few decades.

Read the book!

Kandahar said:

Note: Randomly using the phrase "Ponzi scheme" doesn't make you sound like you know what you're talking about. It just makes you sound silly to those of us who actually know what the phrase means. :2wave:

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But he was referring to the US national budget.

Which means he knew what he was saying.

Scarecrow Akhbar said:

But he was referring to the US national budget.

Which means he knew what he was saying.

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isn't just the budget

it is also pension plans, state and local govts as well, and our banking system too when you get right down to it

Technology and customs may change, but people never do, so war (of any magnitude) is always a possibility.

Maximus Zeebra said:

What? Now that is an absurd scenario. China trying to "take" a piece of land from a nuclear power. Hardly. First of all, Russia is a big nuclear power. Secondly. China is having a "peaceful rice" :mrgreen:, thirdly they wouldnt be so stupid.

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You asked what scenarios might provoke a global nuclear war; that's the only one that's even remotely likely. There might be relatively small-scale nuclear wars...for example, India/Pakistan, Israel/Iran, or the US/North Korea. But while any of those would be devastating for one or both sides involved, none of them would really provoke a global conflict. The only possible global conflict that I can envision is if Russia and China decide to go to war with each other...and Siberia is the biggest point of tension between them.

I agree that China probably won't try to "take" Siberia, so to speak. I think it's much more likely that Russia will decide there is no way they can defend it and they'll sell or trade it to China.

Maximus Zeebra said:

I mean, not only resources,

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We aren't running out of resources, and you've offered absolutely nothing to support this ridiculous claim. Global population is leveling off, and economics and technology will enable us to quickly find replacements for any nonrenewable resource that might be on the verge of depletion.

Maximus Zeebra said:

but we are heading for a large range of global disasters,

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Such as? Evidence?

Maximus Zeebra said:

and the only ones tryging to change their way of living is for the most of it Europe.

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Ah yes, of course. Ra-ra-ra for the home team again. Your moronic jingoism aside, you forget that Europe consumes vastly more resources per capita than most countries in the world.

Maximus Zeebra said:

China is growing up and probably will also take a lead in that area and create eventually a whole new type of sustainable society,

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China is now the world's largest polluter and is grossly inefficient per dollar of GDP.

Maximus Zeebra said:

while Europe will struggle but make it possible, and America refuse to change, and fail.

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Every country eventually becomes more sustainable. Europe and the United States are both considerably cleaner and more sustainable than they were 20 or 30 years ago, and that trend seems likely to continue into the foreseeable future. China still has a ways to go in terms of economic development, before their pollution peaks.

Kandahar said:

You asked what scenarios might provoke a global nuclear war; that's the only one that's even remotely likely. There might be relatively small-scale nuclear wars...for example, India/Pakistan, Israel/Iran, or the US/North Korea. But while any of those would be devastating for one or both sides involved, none of them would really provoke a global conflict. The only possible global conflict that I can envision is if Russia and China decide to go to war with each other...and Siberia is the biggest point of tension between them.

I agree that China probably won't try to "take" Siberia, so to speak. I think it's much more likely that Russia will decide there is no way they can defend it and they'll sell or trade it to China.

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:shock:
What? Are you for real? Do you think so?

And... Dont you think there is a bigger chance of war over Taiwan than Siberia? (and why not, if no).

Kandahar said:

We aren't running out of resources, and you've offered absolutely nothing to support this ridiculous claim. Global population is leveling off, and economics and technology will enable us to quickly find replacements for any nonrenewable resource that might be on the verge of depletion.

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Are we not? Oil is starting to run short. With increasing demand and less and less new fields, how will that trend end? How can we replace oil btw? Its not only used in gazoline.. What will we do then if we dont start preparing ahead of time, instead of too late?

The global population isnt leveling of, and oil isnt the only resource we are running out of. How about water or food? The predictions are that more and more people will have problems even getting enough water to survive and that the only "safe" regions are Europe, US/Canada, and Russia. How about the hydrogen economy? What will happen when we start using water for commercial purposes other than drinking?

How about agricultural land? How about forests and ecological diversity, which is at its lowest levels since the past ice age? How about food production, which isnt going up vis a vis the demand for food. How about health disasters waiting to hit the US/Europe? How about the globalization of germs, bacteria and virus in a faster paced world?

How about these things, and how exactly are we really progressing that will save us from the situation? I dont see ipods and smaller computers saving us from it. There hasnt really been real innovation the past 15 years, just slight improvements. Seemingly progress is really slowing down instead of heating up. How in any scenario will modern technology save us from two handful of disasters waiting to his us when we cant even do something as simple as feed the whole planet. Heck we cant even distribute things half fairly. We are so dumb that one part of the world eats themselves to death while the other part starves to death. How the f*** do you think such a society can handle massive onsetting crisis? Add climate change, and add a theoretical scenario of sea levels raising only 1 meter the next 50 years. Many cities will be unihabitable and a lot of fresh water will be rendered impossible to drink.

Kandahar said:

Such as? Evidence?

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Its not up to me to get updated on other things than who sucks whos c*** in Washington. I have the range of knowledge I need, to understand that not everything is glory road and not being so naive as believing "future technology" will save us. Future technology is NOW, we need to create that, not wait for it.

Kandahar said:

Ah yes, of course. Ra-ra-ra for the home team again. Your moronic jingoism aside, you forget that Europe consumes vastly more resources per capita than most countries in the world.

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Year, except the US. But European society is getting more energy effective and a larger part of our energy comes from reneable sources, also we have the fastest growing sector in the world when it comes to clean and renewable energy. Also we have very low energy consumption per capita GDP. China is catching up quickly though and will pass us quickly.

Eurpean companies are even planning on building a half trillion project in African saharan desert to help cover future energy needs. The US only spends such money trying to buy poor countries oil fields in competition with China. Difference is, China is playing both games.

Kandahar said:

China is now the world's largest polluter and is grossly inefficient per dollar of GDP.

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China is about to overtake Europe as having the biggest clean renewable energy usage and industry. US is lagging behind, only comparable with Germany alone.

Kandahar said:

Every country eventually becomes more sustainable. Europe and the United States are both considerably cleaner and more sustainable than they were 20 or 30 years ago, and that trend seems likely to continue into the foreseeable future. China still has a ways to go in terms of economic development, before their pollution peaks.

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Do they, the US also? Really? Only California that is.