What are your technology predictions for the next decade?

One prediction: The RIAA, MPAA, and BSA will still fail to stop piracy no matter what absurd technical means they try. :mrgreen:

To me, making papers almost obsolete is the most likely. Its like using candles. A majority of the population uses candles for decoration or non-practical purposes.
Or if candles were to be used for practical purposes, it would be because electricity is out or other forms of light are unavailable. In other words, electricity comes first before candle light.

I would say the same about papers. We will probably get to a point where people use papers for (for a lack of a better word) sentimental value or non-practicality; or like I said, because electricity is not available.

This is especially important for many careers and fields in which papers add burden or slow things down, like a hospital. Since I will be in the medical field, this affects me directly. Keeping track of patients, documentation, legalities, financial info, it should all be on computer if that tech is available.


Next I would say the interactivity of common objects to the point that everything has a computer. Okay not everything, but maybe things like chalkboards, window blinds, the kitchen, doors, things like that. The best example I can think of is in the Bond film "Quantum of Solace," in M's office, one of her assistants is using a computerized table to show information, all controlled by finger touches; no papers, no mess, no clutter, no problem.

I think that most of the "advances" will be entering by 2015 but not until 2030 will they be commonplace. Its all a matter of economics. I'd rather see social strides, better communications, more honesty. And we need serious upgrades in respect and tolerance..

Kandahar said:

• Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment, such as inside furniture, jewelry, walls, and clothing.

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Already happening to some extent, so I think it likely.

Kandahar said:

• People communicate with their computers via speech and gestures instead of with keyboards.

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I think this more likely: "People communicating with their computers via speech and gestures in addition to keyboards."

Kandahar said:

• Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.

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Unlikely, IMO.

Kandahar said:

• Retinal implants allow the blind to see, and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk.

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As far as I am aware, retinal implants are already being tested in humans, so that is quite likely. I think testing of spinal implants is also under way, although at a lesser level of advancement.

Kandahar said:

• Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere, forcing society to reconsider its definition of privacy.

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If they are aware of them... I think this prediction possible, but not probable.

Kandahar said:

• Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.

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Perhaps. I personally prefer reading an actual book, but who knows?

Kandahar said:

• Most learning is accomplished through adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers.

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I doubt this unless major advancements are made. Human contact in learning seems to me to be of high importance. However, I think this prediction likely in a supportive role.

Kandahar said:

• Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.

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Perhaps. More likely in my mind for non-verbal conversations. (like IM/texting, etc.).

Kandahar said:

• Virtual reality is the preferred sexual medium, since it is convincing, safe, and enhances the experience.

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Unlikely, IMO. A novelty, perhaps, or something for those with "interesting" sexual interests, but unlikely to be the preferred medium.

Kandahar said:

• Computers do most of the vehicle driving—humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.

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I doubt this. Perhaps in 30 years, but not 10. I personally am currently driving a vehicle at least 10 years old, and unless major changes in job availability (how close to your home , etc.) and travel methods (if more mass transport were put in place, or alternative modes of transportation) occur, it seems likely that a portion of the population will be doing the same in the next 10 years.

One more thing I wanted to ask/clarify, since it looks like almost no one agreed with the "household robots are ubiquitous and reliable" prediction (including me):

"Household robots" don't necessarily have to look or act like Rosie from The Jetsons. Think about the Roomba or the iMower...do you think there will be similar machines in ten years for most other household chores?

Personally I still say no. Most tasks are much more complicated than sweeping the floor or mowing the lawn (which can easily be mapped on a grid), and even with an extra ten years technology I can't foresee this happening. Maybe they'll exist for a few other simple tasks like cleaning the kitchen/bathroom counters...but I really doubt we'll have robots than can do our laundry, pick up our junk, or cook our meals.

I think this guy says it pretty good. Be sure to read the rest of his blog at the link. It's a NASA blog.

At a recent speaking engagement, I was introduced as an “expert”. Scary title, that. At another place I was introduced as "highly experienced" which is a polite way of saying "old".

These put me in mind of Clarke’s Law. Sir Arthur C. Clarke, the inventor of the geostationary satellite, author of innumerable books both non-fiction and science-fiction, and one of the truly forward thinkers of the 20th century. Clarke’s first law has to do with predictions and experts. He came to an interesting conclusion after studying the predictions of experts over the previous centuries. To get you in the right frame of mind, consider some of these real predictions by well respected experts of the past:

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Wayne Hales Blog - nasa.gov: Predictions and Wishes

Kandahar said:

Here are my thoughts on Kurzweil's predictions:



I agree. The whole concept of a "computer" as a rectangular box that attaches to a keyboard, mouse, and monitor is already becoming obsolete. Is my new Droid a computer or a phone? I think it's both. By the end of the decade, I think it's reasonable that computers would be embedded in places you wouldn't even think to look today.

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I don't think desktop/laptops will become obsolete, I just think products will continue to expand.

I agree. Voice recognition technology has made amazing progress in the last few years, and is quite accurate now.

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Nope, sounds good but obnoxiousness to you fellow officemates and privacy will limit its use.

Ehh...I'm not sure. I guess it depends what counts as a household robot. The Roomba is nice and all, and I'm sure that the technology will continue to improve...but I'm not sure that we'll get there by 2020 for tasks more complicated than vacuuming the floor or mowing the lawn. I really doubt we'll have robots cooking our meals, taking out our trash, and sorting our laundry by the end of the decade.

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Robots that are stationary maybe.

I disagree. Unless there is some amazing breakthrough in our understanding of the human brain (which isn't out of the question), I think this will take a lot longer than ten years.

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A bit much to ask, but some progress will be made.

I agree. The CIA probably already has them.

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Yeah, without warrants too, right.

I don't know about this one. Things only become obsolete when something better comes along, not something newer. Most of the time I'd simply rather have a book than a Kindle document.

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Books will still be around but improvements in other reading methods will continue to eat away at this market.

I disagree. While the technology for this may exist by 2020, old habits die hard. I honestly can't foresee 150 years of our education system suddenly collapsing in the next decade just because software is able to do the same thing.

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Courseware will be added as another tool for the educator.

I agree. As I said above, voice recognition technology is already pretty good. Babelfish technology...needs a bit of improvement. But I think we'll get there by the end of the decade.



I disagree. While that would be pretty cool, I doubt it'll happen in ten years. There's a pretty big technological leap between World of Warcraft and The Matrix.



While I think the technology for this will probably exist by the end of the decade (it's already here, to some extent) I don't think it will catch on that quickly...at least in the United States. Our legal system is particularly nasty to companies which make products that injure people. Even if "smart cars" reduced fatalities by 90%, the other 10% would sue the manufacturers.

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People will continue to drive their own cars, but cars will continue to change.

Cilogy said:

To me, making papers almost obsolete is the most likely. Its like using candles. A majority of the population uses candles for decoration or non-practical purposes.
Or if candles were to be used for practical purposes, it would be because electricity is out or other forms of light are unavailable. In other words, electricity comes first before candle light.

I would say the same about papers. We will probably get to a point where people use papers for (for a lack of a better word) sentimental value or non-practicality; or like I said, because electricity is not available.

This is especially important for many careers and fields in which papers add burden or slow things down, like a hospital. Since I will be in the medical field, this affects me directly. Keeping track of patients, documentation, legalities, financial info, it should all be on computer if that tech is available.


Next I would say the interactivity of common objects to the point that everything has a computer. Okay not everything, but maybe things like chalkboards, window blinds, the kitchen, doors, things like that. The best example I can think of is in the Bond film "Quantum of Solace," in M's office, one of her assistants is using a computerized table to show information, all controlled by finger touches; no papers, no mess, no clutter, no problem.

Click to expand...

I read a study a while back on just this issue. The study showed that because of the proliferation of computers in the workplace, the amount of paper generated has increased. The theory is that with computers it is far easier to generate more paperwork than it was before.

I think the change that will occur (and has occurred, to a large extent) is that permanent records will be digitized and less paper will be used for that purpose.

I thought this was pretty interesting. It talks about the R&D of the self-driving car.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzTi_jwbaAA"]YouTube- Self-Driving Robotic Cars[/ame]