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Hypothetical Economic Scenario

Is the agricultural industry of country A dead/dying?

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obvious Child

obvious Child

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Would you call the agricultural industry of hypothetical country A dead/dying when it was experiencing on average a growth of 6% in agricultural exports annually over a recent period of 10 years after meeting domestic demand?
 
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Is there growth or shrinkage in its share of GDP, a change in consumption, or amount of people employed by the secotor? Exports can be an indicator, but there are lot more
 
obvious Child said:
Would you call the agricultural industry of hypothetical country A dead/dying when it was experiencing on average a growth of 6% in agricultural exports annually over a recent period of 10 years after meeting domestic demand?
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A 6% growth in exports doesn't mean very much, if the domestic demand is shrinking. Furthermore, an industry could grow without being more profitable.
 
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It's it a bitch when you come up with an agenda driven poll and don't get the results (or any results for that matter) you expect because the questions are so lame?


.
 
Kandahar said:
A 6% growth in exports doesn't mean very much, if the domestic demand is shrinking. Furthermore, an industry could grow without being more profitable.
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While that is possible, why would you increase exports if you didn't make money?

The veiled point of the thread is that American manufacturing export values are increasing on average 6% annually over the last ten years. Yet we have people saying that American manufacturing is dying. Apparently increasing value of manufactured exports = dying to these people.
 
But growing exports doesn't mean aggregate growth.
 
obvious Child said:
While that is possible, why would you increase exports if you didn't make money?
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To gain market share, or to try a pilot strategy, or to build relationships (and increase negotiating power) with overseas customers, or because you incorrectly think you'll make money, or because you lose less money overseas than you do at home. There are many possible reasons.

obvious Child said:
The veiled point of the thread is that American manufacturing export values are increasing on average 6% annually over the last ten years. Yet we have people saying that American manufacturing is dying. Apparently increasing value of manufactured exports = dying to these people.
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Again...if exports (not even profit from exports) are increasing by 6% annually while domestic demand is falling off a cliff, that doesn't mean very much.
 
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Kandahar said:
To gain market share, or to try a pilot strategy, or to build relationships (and increase negotiating power) with overseas customers, or because you incorrectly think you'll make money. There are many possible reasons.
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We are not Japan my friend. Loss selling isn't something we do on a long term basis.

Again...if exports (not even profit from exports!) are increasing by 6% annually while domestic demand is falling off a cliff, that doesn't mean very much.
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Perhaps so, but that is not the case in America. I don't understand how people think manufacturing is dead in America yet dollar value of goods keeps rising. Furthermore, automation is clearly the cause of many of the job losses. Why bother to hire 50 people when you can use just 5?
 
obvious Child said:
We are not Japan my friend. Loss selling isn't something we do on a long term basis.
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Some companies do. Amazon.com, for example, has never been profitable, yet it is extremely well-capitalized. Even among more "traditional" companies, many of them sell at a loss in certain areas and make up the difference elsewhere. Loss selling is not necessarily a bad thing if there is a good reason behind it, like the reasons I mentioned before.

obvious Child said:
Perhaps so, but that is not the case in America. I don't understand how people think manufacturing is dead in America yet dollar value of goods keeps rising. Furthermore, automation is clearly the cause of many of the job losses. Why bother to hire 50 people when you can use just 5?
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When the average person talks about industries dying, they're talking about employment drying up. So even if the industry is still technically profitable due to automation, most people will not seek employment in that sector.
 
In this area of Michigan, we have two primary industries for employment, the auto industry and the furniture industry. The auto industry you know about, and it is tough times there. For the furniture industry: WOOD TV8 | US office furniture shipments to drop.

The Grand Rapids-based trade organization says on its Web site that shipments are expected to drop 31 percent this year, to $7.7 billion, when compared with 2008.
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Exports do not tell the whole story. Further, who has said that "American manufacturing is dying"? Without context, it's hard to judge things.
 
Kandahar said:
Amazon.com, for example, has never been profitable, yet it is extremely well-capitalized.
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Eh? It was slower to profitability than originally planned, but it's been profitable since 2001.

Unless you're referring to cumulative revenues vs. cumulative debt.
 
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Harshaw said:
Eh? It was slower to profitability than originally planned, but it's been profitable since 2001.

Unless you're referring to cumulative revenues vs. cumulative debt.
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Ya, I mean it's been in the red since it was founded. It's growing, but it still hasn't recouped its losses.
 
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