Well unionists consistently get the most votes, surely that demonstrates a high level of support? Also if only 24% of the population classes themselves as republican then surely that would surgest most are against a united ireland?
First, we'll ignore the obvious
gerrymandering that occured for so long. This is an indisputable fact, but we'll still ignore it for the sake of the current debate.
Let's just look over the past few elections to see what has occured:
For the 2007 election, the two major Unionis parties, the Ulster Unionist party and the Democratic Unionist Party, lost 3 seats collectively. (6 gained by the DUP, 9 lost by the UUP). 54 seats between these two parties.
The two major Nationalist parties, Sinn Fein and the Social Democratic and Labour Party, gained 2 seats collectively (2 lost by the SDLP, 4 gained by Sinn Fein). 44 seats between these two parties.
There are 7 Alliance Party seats (1 seat gained since 2003). And 3 held by minor parties, including the Progressive Unionist party rasing the Unionist total to 55. (But of the 3 minor party seats in 2003, one was Progressive unionist party, which was retained, the other was United Kingdom Unionist Party which was lost)
So in 2003, the Unionist parties combined to hold 58 seats (about 54%), while the Nationalists held 42 seats (about 39%). In 2007 those numbers are 55 Unionist (51%) 44 Nationalist (41%)
And the "majority' vote has a pretty clear deliniation. The north-northeast is Unionist (Mostly Eastern Derry, Antrim, and Northern Down) while the south-southwest is Republican (Western Derry, Fermanagh, Tyrone, most of Armagh, and Southern Down). Belfast is split pretty much along the same lines. South and West are Republican, North and East are Unionist.
So although there is a unionist majority, it grows more tentative with every election.
And all that is shown while
discounting all of the gerrymandering that has taken place over decades.
