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Helmet Norpoth Predicts Trump Victory

Who Is More Credible, Norpoth or Lichtman?

  • Norpoth is more credible

    Votes: 2 28.6%

  • Lichtman is more credible, because he is a liberal

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Lichtman is more credible, because I am a liberal and I want Biden to win

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Not sure

    Votes: 5 71.4%
  • Total voters
    7
ReubenSherr

ReubenSherr

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Helmet Norpoth, a political scientist who called every one of the past 6 presidential elections correctly except for Bush/Gore, has given Trump a 90% chance of winning the 2020 Election in November.

Maverick Modeller Helmut Norpoth Predicts Another Win for Trump | | SBU News

He and Allan Lichtman missed the same election, both calling 2000 for Gore.

Who is more credible, Norpoth or Lichtman?
 
Phys251 said:
Who is Helmet Norpoth and why should we care?
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A political science professor who predicted 5 out of the past 6 presidential elections, and only missed Bush/Gore.

Do you have the same feelings towards Allan Lichtman?
 
Phys251 said:
I asked first. :) Properly answer my question and then I will answer yours.
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Sorry, I edited the previous post.

A political science professor who correctly predicted 5 out of the past 6 presidential elections, only missing Bush/Gore, like Lichtman did.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Sorry, I edited the previous post.

A political science professor who correctly predicted 5 out of the past 6 presidential elections, only missing Bush/Gore, like Lichtman did.
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I don't care much about either one's past predictions. It's simple arithmetic: Given enough people making enough predictions, eventually some of them will get most if not all of their predictions right. It would be a gambler's fallacy to assume that their winning streaks will necessarily continue.

Now if you can properly unpack all that, you just might prove that you're ready to have a fair debate with me about matters related to statistics.
 
Ignore every single headline that is a variation of "Man who correctly predicted every election/recession/disaster/etc. since 1312 BC" and you'll be fine.
 
Phys251 said:
I don't care much about either one's past predictions. It's simple arithmetic: Given enough people making enough predictions, eventually some of them will get most if not all of their predictions right. It would be a gambler's fallacy to assume that their winning streaks will necessarily continue.

Now if you can properly unpack all that, you just might prove that you're ready to have a fair debate with me about matters related to statistics.
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That’s a fair post.
 
Cardinal said:
Ignore every single headline that is a variation of "Man who correctly predicted every election/recession/disaster/etc. since 1312 BC" and you'll be fine.
Click to expand...

Interesting, though, that this didn’t come up regarding Lichtman.
 
Cardinal said:
Ignore every single headline that is a variation of "Man who correctly predicted every election/recession/disaster/etc. since 1312 BC" and you'll be fine.
Click to expand...

but don't you want to buy some gold and get in at the ground level of my MLM scam?
 
Was the prediction made before Trump defunded Social Security? And was it before or after his death toll topped 160K?
 
I have a system of my own, which is that the candidate that gets more electoral votes will win.

So far my system is 100% perfect. I've called it right in every election up to and including Washington's in 1792.
 
Neither of these guys are more credible. Anyone who tells you he know who will win in 2020 is blowing smoke.
 
I don't think either are more credible than the other. It's going to be interesting to see who is right/wrong.

I will note that Northup made his prediction in early July, Lichtman made his prediction in early August. I assume both have a system that makes them comfortable making their predictions this far in advance.

Note: The Polling Options look like something from Breitbart.
 
Cardinal said:
I don't know who Lichtman is.
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Lichtman and Norpoth are two professors who have both predicted 5 out of the past 6 elections correctly.

Both predicted Gore would win in 2000. Norpoth admitted he was wrong, Lichtman whined about it and claimed he was right.

Lichtman predicted Biden would win in November, Norpoth predicted Trump would win in November.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Lichtman and Norpoth are two professors who have both predicted 5 out of the past 6 elections correctly.

Both predicted Gore would win in 2000. Norpoth admitted he was wrong, Lichtman whined about it and claimed he was right.

Lichtman predicted Biden would win in November, Norpoth predicted Trump would win in November.
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Okay. Don’t care.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Lichtman and Norpoth are two professors who have both predicted 5 out of the past 6 elections correctly.

Both predicted Gore would win in 2000. Norpoth admitted he was wrong, Lichtman whined about it and claimed he was right.

Lichtman predicted Biden would win in November, Norpoth predicted Trump would win in November.
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There is a 100% chance one of them will be correct. There is my prediction.
 
i have not been wrong about a Presidential election since 1980. i'm not kidding.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Helmet Norpoth, a political scientist who called every one of the past 6 presidential elections correctly except for Bush/Gore, has given Trump a 90% chance of winning the 2020 Election in November.

Maverick Modeller Helmut Norpoth Predicts Another Win for Trump | | SBU News

He and Allan Lichtman missed the same election, both calling 2000 for Gore.

Who is more credible, Norpoth or Lichtman?
Click to expand...

That seals it. Trump is gonna win. No need for you and you klan to bother voting.
 
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