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Allan Lichtman predicts Biden victory

Will Lichtman be right again?

  • Yes, his method always works. Biden will win.

    Votes: 7 41.2%

  • No, he has it wrong this time. Trump will win.

    Votes: 5 29.4%

  • I think he's just been lucky. It could go either way.

    Votes: 5 29.4%
  • Total voters
    17
Carolina said:
You say he had no Political Incentive in 2016 to bet against Clinton, but suddenly in 2020 he has Political Incentive because he ran for a Senate Seat in 2006. Ok...
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Reuban doesn't let logic get in the way of rationalization.:mrgreen:
 
gulfman said:
The Gulfman poll says Trump will win.
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Yes, especially handing out a stimulus candy package to our weak American society?


"Give the people Bread, then circuses and you may do what you want to the people"
 
Luther said:
Yes, especially handing out a stimulus candy package to our weak American society?


"Give the people Bread, then circuses and you may do what you want to the people"
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That's pretty much what Trump does. Too bad his circuses got canceled due to COVID. He's not much for bread, but his stooges eat up the bull**** he throws out.:mrgreen:
 
bearpoker said:
Reuban doesn't let logic get in the way of rationalization.:mrgreen:
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Just because Lichtman predicted a Trump victory in 2016 means, logically, that it is impossible that someone asked him to do this in 2020?

Wishful thinking, bearpoker. ;)

And, again, we have Norpoth predicting a Trump victory anyway.

And Lichtman whining "I wasn't wrong" after he called the 2000 election incorrectly.
 
Carolina said:
I'm aware.
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Then explain the flaw in my logic lol.

Lichtman called the 2016 election for Trump, therefore it is impossible that someone asked him to call this election for Biden?

Apparently, you don't let logic get in the way of rationalization. ;)
 
ReubenSherr said:
Lichtman called the 2000 race incorrectly. He called it for Gore.

Don't have enough info on his "predictive method" to be able to judge, but this professor has correctly predicted 5 out of past 6 presidential elections, and gives Trump a 91% chance of winning.

Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts | The Independent

"President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.

Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."
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The 2000 race is still and iffy win for Bush.
 
JMaximus said:
People choosing not to vote is not suppression.
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Except that's not what I'm talking about. But you already knew that. :shrug:
 
iguanaman said:
At least Bush came close to a popular vote win. Losing by nearly 3 million votes like Trump did is not close. Obama had over 50% of the vote in both his elections, that is how you really win a mandate to govern. Biden will win over 50% of the vote also.
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50 states. Count states. Gore lost. Hillary lost. Presidential elections are not popular vote and never were. Nor will they ever be.

Forget the public, presidents are elected by states and not the popular vote.
 
Robertinfremont said:
50 states. Count states. Gore lost. Hillary lost. Presidential elections are not popular vote and never were. Nor will they ever be.

Forget the public, presidents are elected by states and not the popular vote.
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Minority rule is a sure way to divide the nation that we know.
 
iguanaman said:
Minority rule is a sure way to divide the nation that we know.
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Join we Trump voters. Make his election this time a true majority vote.

PS, it will always be a divided nation unless candidates each get 50 percent of the electoral college vote.
 
Robertinfremont said:
Join we Trump voters. Make his election this time a true majority vote.

PS, it will always be a divided nation unless candidates each get 50 percent of the electoral college vote.
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No thanks I don't hate America. I will join the majority who don't either. This one term mistake will be corrected.
 
iguanaman said:
No thanks I don't hate America. I will join the majority who don't either. This one term mistake will be corrected.
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Well Jimmy Carter who I voted for was corrected as a one term president. I do not see the fans of Trump handing him a loss.
 
I had 6 Trump voters in my Social Circle in 2016.

4 of those Trump voters are now dead (elderly) and 2 have swapped to Team Biden.

The 2 that swapped to Team Biden have two daughters that couldn't vote last election. They'll be voting Biden.

My Parents didn't vote last election at all. They're voting for Biden this election.

So my Social Circle of 6 Trump voters + Me (Clinton voter) has turned into 6 Biden voters + Me (Biden voter).

I live in a Swing State and I think our votes matter.... and I think my small family unit is a representation of whats happening all over.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Just because Lichtman predicted a Trump victory in 2016 means, logically, that it is impossible that someone asked him to do this in 2020?

Wishful thinking, bearpoker. ;)

And, again, we have Norpoth predicting a Trump victory anyway.

And Lichtman whining "I wasn't wrong" after he called the 2000 election incorrectly.
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No, not impossible, just unlikely. If Lichtman was making this prediction because Biden slipped a bit in the polls, why didn't he do the same for Hillary? She didn't just slip, she power slid! You have no evidence for your theory, just speculation. The same is true for your conspiracy theory around Hermann Caine's death. Quit being silly and people will respect you more.
 
bearpoker said:
No, not impossible, just unlikely. If Lichtman was making this prediction because Biden slipped a bit in the polls, why didn't he do the same for Hillary? She didn't just slip, she power slid! You have no evidence for your theory, just speculation.
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Bearpoker, chill.

I simply posted that it was likely someone asked Lichtman to do this. This year. Lol this has nothing to do with 2016, maybe in 2016 no one asked him.

This isn't a theory, it's a post.
 
bearpoker said:
The same is true for your conspiracy theory around Hermann Caine's death.
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Lol this has nothing to do with Herman Cain.

I am suspicious that a left-wing nut job infected Herman Cain on purpose, to set up Trump. There is factual documentation that left wing groups planted protestors at Trump rallies.

This is not a conspiracy theory, it is a suspicion. And it has nothing to do with this thread.

The more you all bring this up in unrelated threads, the more suspicious it looks.
 
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bearpoker said:
Quit being silly and people will respect you more.
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Put more factual information into your posts and people will respect you more.

Because your current track record is pretty sketchy. Judging from the conservatives I've interacted with.

And sticking to the topic might get you some additional respect as well. ;)
 
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