The Five Stages of Collapse

Cephus said:

We've been a shell of our former selves for a long time, we stopped actually producing anything years ago, we just consume, consume, consume. Now we're finding out that consuming without producing is a very bad idea.

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We produce weapons, and pretty expensive ones too.

kamino said:

Will the U.S. fail? This seems to be a question I have heard again and again. I say no. Why? Because were Americans. This is more then just some title to a people who live in an area of the world, its an ideal. It's an ideal of Freedom, equality, and an ideal of self reliance. When something is wrong we fix it, not wait on some one else to come help us, the way the rest of the world seems to look to the U.S. to help them. The U.S. will not fail because we will not let it fail. The U.S. government can be destroyed, our land can be taken away, but we will never stop being "Americans"

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You are somewhat correct about the American Spirit...it is alive and well...and yet Americans did vote this election for more dependence on Government.

No one said that America will fail...only that its economic and social system is teetering on collapse. This may in the long run lead to the strengthening of the values you speak of...self-reliance. There will be a lot of pain before it works its way out. And a lot of lazy, fat, government reliant people will be the ones suffering most.

Cephus said:

It all depends on what you mean by "collapse", I suppose. Of course America will collapse, every society eventually does. Even Rome fell apart and people thought that would last forever. There's no doubt that given enough time, America will go the way of the dodo, just like everything else.

However, I don't think that will happen in the near future. America may very well become less important in the world economy, we may lose most of our influence and economic strength (wait, we have any economic strength left?), but we'll still be here, in some form or another, for quite some time to come.

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To answer your question, yes America has tremendous economic strength.

The thing that keeps it that way is a faith in free markets, and not too much Government intrusion in them and our strong abidance and faith in our private property right laws.

The thing that keeps South American countries, African Nations, Russia and China third "worldish" is the failure of their societies to have strong laws protecting individual property rights and consistent enforcement of their laws along with stable Governance through FREE and fair elections.

Capital finds its way to America because there is faith that it will be safe. If we ever change what has gotten us here, then yes, be very afraid.

It is truly in the interest of the rest of the world to ensure the integrity of the American market; for as we go, they shall all go.

As to the thread authors premise that the collapse will be preceded by our total consumption of oil, there are authorities, particularly in the Middle East who are developing ways to extract oil from desert wastelands, that we are going to be flush with oil for centuries even with increased consumption.

This does not mean we should be complacent; my argument is that it does not forebode any near term collapse based on our need and consumption of oil. It still takes 435,000 gallons of fuel to fly a Boeing 747-400 from Los Angeles to Hong Kong and until an alternative is found to fly these behemoths, we will need to continue finding ways to extract oil from the earth.

The thread authors comparison of American with the collapse of the Soviet Union are farcical; the Soviet Union collapsed as a direct result of the failure of a central controlled Communist Government to provide for the needs of it's citizens and spending ever increasing amounts of their GDP on defense to keep up with the US.

We do not have the same problems; unless we get a Chavez like leader that sheeple would follow over the precipice of total Socialism.

That's my :twocents: worth.

Mr. President said:

You are somewhat correct about the American Spirit...it is alive and well...and yet Americans did vote this election for more dependence on Government.

No one said that America will fail...only that its economic and social system is teetering on collapse. This may in the long run lead to the strengthening of the values you speak of...self-reliance. There will be a lot of pain before it works its way out. And a lot of lazy, fat, government reliant people will be the ones suffering most.

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American voters sway back and forth every decade or so; they need the constant reminder of why we do not want to be like Canada, Europe or the rest of the world. :mrgreen:

Truth Detector said:

unless we get a Chavez like leader that sheeple would follow over the precipice of total Socialism.

That's my :twocents: worth.

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Um, haven't you heard? That's what we're getting. shhh...don't tell anybody.

Invayne said:

Um, haven't you heard? That's what we're getting. shhh...don't tell anybody.

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But they told me Obama would move to the center!!! They lied to us???? :mrgreen:

Goobieman said:

-That- was me.
Never mind that what you posted here does nothing to address the validity of his statement.

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Actually it does. If America experienced the kind of near apocalyptic decline he's talking about the number of people who would survive it would be so minuscule they'd probably just die off from old age and that's a very generous estimate. Think about it for a minute. What percentage of the American populace hunts for it's food? What percentage of the American populace relies on vehicles whenever it wants to go hunting? Getting food? Necessities? Say what you will but this wet dream so many gun owners have that if the world ends they'll survive is destroyed the moment they drive into wal-mart to pick up their holiday chickens. Very few will make it and knowing how to hunt will make a very small difference if it ever comes to down to it.

Mr. President said:

I agree, but there is a big difference between "The Great Depression" and any recession that followed. I think our course will take us to greater depths than the Great Depression. Will America survive? Of course...but I'm afraid it will be a shell of its former self.

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Well, we all watched "Russia" collapse. In your opinion, being one who travels to and fro, is modern day Russia a shell of it's former self? Has it survived the collapse or is it forever doomed?

Just my opinion, mind you, but I think America as we know it will change. Collapse might be too strong of a word but perhaps not. But I have no doubt, in my heart of hearts, that we will survive.

I can skin a buck, I can run a trot line. A country boy can survive.

Hatuey said:

Actually it does.

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You saying so doesnt make it so.
See below.

What percentage of the American populace hunts for it's food?

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This is the wrong question.
What % of the American populace CAN hunt for their food?
What % of the rest of the populace will be fed by that %?

What percentage of the American populace relies on vehicles whenever it wants to go hunting?

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Again, the wrong question.
What % of those that hunt MUST rely on vehicles to do so?

Say what you will but this wet dream so many gun owners have that if the world ends they'll survive is destroyed the moment they drive into wal-mart to pick up their holiday chickens.

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Obviously not.

However, this much IS true:
In post-collapse America, those that own guns and/or hunt for their food will be FAR better off than those of you that do not.

I have seen some comments here on both sides that I don't agree with.

Here is what I think:

1) Yes, there will be a collapse. Actually, the collapse is now in progress.

2) It won't be the end of the USA. This is an economic collapse. Orlov draws a pretty good parallel between this one and the one that led to the end of the Soviet Union.

3) Our collapse won't be as bad. The Soviet Union went under after their government attempted huge infusions of cash into their market. However, the Russian market was much smaller and the government unable to sustain the infusions of cash, due to the size of the Soviet economy.

4) In both cases, the last stage was hastened by massive stimulus.

5) Russia is still around today. The USA will also survive. However, as Russian expansionism ended, so will American expansionism end. The world will be dominated by multipolarism, in which there will be a major power in several areas of the world, and is will be regional powers instead of one or two powers dominating the world.

I have a live feed to Russia Today, which I watch during the week, along with feeds from other news channels, such as Sky News from the UK, FR24 from France, and CC9 from China. Dmitry Orlov was interviewed today, and I saw that interview. A copy of that interview can be viewed at the Russia Today website.

Now you might wonder why I watch all these foreign channels. My answer is that, with the corporatization of our own news channels, we are no longer getting the entire picture, and much of our news is somewhat politicized. Foreign news channels do help to fill in the gaps. As John Adams said: "

Liberty cannot be preserved without a general knowledge among the people"

Mr. President said:

I agree, but there is a big difference between "The Great Depression" and any recession that followed. I think our course will take us to greater depths than the Great Depression. Will America survive? Of course...but I'm afraid it will be a shell of its former self.

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I think collapse is an overstatement, I agree that the U.S. will fall from it's world prominence as the economic and world leader, but this is by all historical accounts nothing new. Actually, it is all apart of a greater cycle of economic fluctuation.

In the time pre-Renaissance, the economic power of the world was China and to some degree India. The Silk Road as well as naval trading brought vast amounts of silver and gold to the East. As Europe arose from the dark ages and began to explore the world, their conquests shifted economic prowess West. The discovery of the New World and its wealth of silver and gold caused a flood of money into China leading to inflation and eventually economic collapse.

We are now nearing a complete 360, as China now owns much of the U.S. debt and is exporting heavily into the West. China is also building it's own consumer base as wages rise in the nation and the U.S. economy suffers. Ultimately, the U.S. will fall to the shadows of the Eastern giants with most of Europe as the balance shifts once again.

I think the only thing we Americans need to do is be okay with a slightly smaller way of life. Sustainability is the great equipoise of life.

tlmorg02 said:

I think collapse is an overstatement, I agree that the U.S. will fall from it's world prominence as the economic and world leader, but this is by all historical accounts nothing new. Actually, it is all apart of a greater cycle of economic fluctuation.

In the time pre-Renaissance, the economic power of the world was China and to some degree India. The Silk Road as well as naval trading brought vast amounts of silver and gold to the East. As Europe arose from the dark ages and began to explore the world, their conquests shifted economic prowess West. The discovery of the New World and its wealth of silver and gold caused a flood of money into China leading to inflation and eventually economic collapse.

We are now nearing a complete 360, as China now owns much of the U.S. debt and is exporting heavily into the West. China is also building it's own consumer base as wages rise in the nation and the U.S. economy suffers. Ultimately, the U.S. will fall to the shadows of the Eastern giants with most of Europe as the balance shifts once again.

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I am always amused at the notion that Communist China is some dominant player in economic terms. Their people wallow in abject poverty which is the ONLY reason China can "export" the slave labor wages their people get paid.

As for the US debt China owns, let me ask you all a question; if the bank loans a significant amount of money to a debtor, who controls the future of both, the debtor, or the bank?

The fact that China holds so much US debt is two fold; one to prop up their currency and two, because without the US, China's growth and markets would dramatically shrink.

The ONLY thing that can bring down the American economy are the very "liberal" policies we are seeing from the current administration. What I fear is that once Government programs get into place, they are extremely difficult to retract; but I have faith that once Americans see the true cost of Liberal policies and the REALITY that they create NOTHING but more poverty and mediocrity, they will vote for politicians that will reverse this trend.

We see Europe struggling with this now and in the long run, may shrug off the burden of Socialism. Governments cannot manage economies, they cannot operate efficiently and they compete with capital markets and stifle the ingenuity and creativity necessary to continue expanding the economic pie. The moment Governments get into the business of over regulating (while actually providing little in the way of preventive oversight) and deciding who the winners in the economy will be (Obama's targeting "green" initiatives and carbon credits) and increase social welfare and creating a dependent class of citizens, you will see decline.

Obama, while sincerely caring about what happens to the poor and less fortunate among is, creates policies that actually make things worse for them; higher costs, less job opportunity and dependence on Government.

Truth Detector said:

I am always amused at the notion that Communist China is some dominant player in economic terms. Their people wallow in abject poverty which is the ONLY reason China can "export" the slave labor wages their people get paid.

As for the US debt China owns, let me ask you all a question; if the bank loans a significant amount of money to a debtor, who controls the future of both, the debtor, or the bank?

The fact that China holds so much US debt is two fold; one to prop up their currency and two, because without the US, China's growth and markets would dramatically shrink.

The ONLY thing that can bring down the American economy are the very "liberal" policies we are seeing from the current administration. What I fear is that once Government programs get into place, they are extremely difficult to retract; but I have faith that once Americans see the true cost of Liberal policies and the REALITY that they create NOTHING but more poverty and mediocrity, they will vote for politicians that will reverse this trend.

We see Europe struggling with this now and in the long run, may shrug off the burden of Socialism. Governments cannot manage economies, they cannot operate efficiently and they compete with capital markets and stifle the ingenuity and creativity necessary to continue expanding the economic pie. The moment Governments get into the business of over regulating (while actually providing little in the way of preventive oversight) and deciding who the winners in the economy will be (Obama's targeting "green" initiatives and carbon credits) and increase social welfare and creating a dependent class of citizens, you will see decline.

Obama, while sincerely caring about what happens to the poor and less fortunate among is, creates policies that actually make things worse for them; higher costs, less job opportunity and dependence on Government.

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China's people are not as poor as you may think. Sure, the rural areas are still light-years behind the cities, but it is growing rapidly.

China | Are you being served? | Economist.com

This article from 2006 comments on the rapidly growing consumerism in China.

quatrotritikali said:

Well, according to the latest predictions by end-of-the-world conspiracy nuts, mankind is marked for death come May of 2012 (according to the Mayan calendar).

Sounds a bit like a repeat, sort of, of Y2K. I see the coming date as a great reason to have a party...whether anything apocalyptic happens or not. arty

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I thought the Maya said that's when their long calender resets in conjunction with our position in the solar system and our earth completing is 23,000 year wobble on the same day. I thought they predicted that is the day we change from children of corn into children of truth. And I thought they predicted on the long count before on the same date we changed from children of the trees into children of the woods.

End of the Earth is Christian/Viking talk.

obviously these are tumultuous times to say the least. however a newscast I saw last week with a British correspondent mentioned that, as bad as it is in America right now, we are still better off than the rest of the world. Although i have nothing to back this claim up

tlmorg02 said:

China's people are not as poor as you may think. Sure, the rural areas are still light-years behind the cities, but it is growing rapidly.

This article from 2006 comments on the rapidly growing consumerism in China.

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Interesting notion, yet the facts paint a far different picture of a totalitarian Communist Government that allows limited capitalism to occur under careful controls in order to keep it's economy from collapsing:

China's national per capita income reaches $1,740(08/18/06)

China's national per capita income reaches $1,740(08/18/06)

Versus Taiwan’s which is $13,982 and the US which is number one at $19,766?

List of countries by per capita personal income - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

By any comparison, China is all third world and cannot hope to achieve much more than that under its current Communist rule. The only thing that has raised China's standings was their takeover of Hong Kong which like Taiwan was a capitalist enclave of freedom and choice.

The notion that China which ranks below most South American countries as being anything less than poor is amusing at best.

One must imagine what China would be like if it were a Democracy like Japan and Taiwan that allows it’s citizens freedom and civil rights. Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea all do far better than China with a tiny fraction of China's resources. Why do you think that is?

DeeJayH said:

obviously these are tumultuous times to say the least. however a newscast I saw last week with a British correspondent mentioned that, as bad as it is in America right now, we are still better off than the rest of the world. Although i have nothing to back this claim up

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That is a factual statement and easy to back up. No need to attempt to unless someone who wants to avoid that reality wants to prove it wrong.

Hatuey said:

Actually it does. If America experienced the kind of near apocalyptic decline he's talking about the number of people who would survive it would be so minuscule they'd probably just die off from old age and that's a very generous estimate. Think about it for a minute. What percentage of the American populace hunts for it's food? What percentage of the American populace relies on vehicles whenever it wants to go hunting? Getting food? Necessities? Say what you will but this wet dream so many gun owners have that if the world ends they'll survive is destroyed the moment they drive into wal-mart to pick up their holiday chickens. Very few will make it and knowing how to hunt will make a very small difference if it ever comes to down to it.

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Hopefully we can pray some up!

Actually it does. If America experienced the kind of near apocalyptic decline he's talking about the number of people who would survive it would be so minuscule they'd probably just die off from old age and that's a very generous estimate.

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Well... I've heard estimates that if the crash ends up like the great depression, that you could expect to see about half the american population die of starvation.

There will be riots and potentially revolution over this... but the government is prepared... there are Federal Emergency Management camps, many of them staffed and waiting for 'campers'. There are the 'coffin collections'... piles of plastic coffins that can hold 3-4 people each numbering in the hundreds of thousands, there's the 'PATRIOT ACT which still does say that 'ANY FEDERAL OR STSATE CRIME (even misdemeanors) are demestic terrorism.

The SPP has been ratified for YEARS now, so on paper, Canada, US, and Mexico share a common border, so there's no escape.

Think about it for a minute. What percentage of the American populace hunts for it's food? What percentage of the American populace relies on vehicles whenever it wants to go hunting? Getting food? Necessities?

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The great depression saw how many millions die of starvation?? Yet, back in the 30's approximately 80% of the people were completely self-suficient... now, 80% of people are 2 paychecks from being bankrupt.

Those that do have guns, and the means to go hunting will definately be better off than someone stuck in the city... if things get bad, it might be a good idea to get out of the cities, cause that's where the chaos will be the greatest.

However, even someone that has a stockpile of food, and weapons will be better off cause he can bide his time to get out of dodge...

You can expect martial law to be declared however....

I dunno... There is so much potential for so many different possibilities... and if it's ALL unleashed.... we could very well be facing a holocaust in america.

Say what you will but this wet dream so many gun owners have that if the world ends they'll survive is destroyed the moment they drive into wal-mart to pick up their holiday chickens. Very few will make it and knowing how to hunt will make a very small difference if it ever comes to down to it.

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Put it this way.... those that can endure the most discomfort will pull through... many others will perish or fall into a life of crime to survive... and especially if martial law is declared, you could expect to have a LOT of shooting going on in the streets.

Maximus Zeebra said:

Clearly there is a collapse, its ongoing, its broad and unpredictable, most people havent started noticing yet because the collapse isnt far enough in development for them to notice, when they do notice then the collapse is in the end phase.

Now we see decline in intellectualism, hyperdecline in politics and government, financial market collapse, and I think the economic collapse will soon be very broad, once the paper economy is gone there is not much left, except in this case far superior housing than soviet had, which will make the collapse less drastic, but even so change the life of everyone when they loose what they were used to.

Typical for decline is denial and a wish to get back to where you wore before, this is clearly taking place in the US now and leading to further decline. The US is in decline, collapse may come or may not, civil war could break out between central and southern US against the rest and then full fledged civil wars that could lead to the break away of states from the federation and create multiple independent nations.

Exciting subject really, my knowledge on it is quite limited but these are some of the things I find most interesting about what could potentially take place. Would anyone mind if the Northeast broke away? That California becomes a nation? That some dusin southern states create the confederation they always wanted and that the rest sporadically cooperate with each other to avoid this.



edit. i didnt read the content of the link until after my post, but it seems quite clear to me that stage 4 is what is unfolding now and that the first 3 have happened and are still happening.

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Somehow you seem too eager for the collapse of the US, but be careful what you wish for because you may get it as well. Your economic system is no different from ours, and your governments are at least as corrupt; you just don't make the news here. Europe is not clean as the wind driven snow, and Scandinavia only does well because no one is threaten them. You are not threaten because of us and the rest of Europe, not because you have overwhelming power. You need to be more humble and less cocky.

American said:

Somehow you seem too eager for the collapse of the US, but be careful what you wish for because you may get it as well. Your economic system is no different from ours, and your governments are at least as corrupt; you just don't make the news here. Europe is not clean as the wind driven snow, and Scandinavia only does well because no one is threaten them. You are not threaten because of us and the rest of Europe, not because you have overwhelming power. You need to be more humble and less cocky.

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I am not eager for the collapse of the US.. But when you do not see your own collapse coming, it will be impossible to prevent it. I am eager to warn, and I want you to avoid collapse.

Broadly I believe in the collapse of the capitalist economic model and the failure of democracy as we know it today. And such a collapse can either cause a huge collapse in both the US and Europe, or it can be changed with reforms. In addition for the US, there are several other things that in addition to those valid for Europe, also can bring about a collapse, increased extremism and polarization, a stagnative society in relative decline, lack of clear direction, militarism as a solution to problems not understood, suppressive almost fascist government, political problems and so fourth.

Seeing what is going on in the world and especially in the US, it would NOT surprise me if the US actually do collapse, nor would a second US civil war surprise me.

Truth Detector said:

Interesting notion, yet the facts paint a far different picture of a totalitarian Communist Government that allows limited capitalism to occur under careful controls in order to keep it's economy from collapsing:

China's national per capita income reaches $1,740(08/18/06)

China's national per capita income reaches $1,740(08/18/06)

Versus Taiwan’s which is $13,982 and the US which is number one at $19,766?

List of countries by per capita personal income - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

By any comparison, China is all third world and cannot hope to achieve much more than that under its current Communist rule. The only thing that has raised China's standings was their takeover of Hong Kong which like Taiwan was a capitalist enclave of freedom and choice.

The notion that China which ranks below most South American countries as being anything less than poor is amusing at best.

One must imagine what China would be like if it were a Democracy like Japan and Taiwan that allows it’s citizens freedom and civil rights. Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea all do far better than China with a tiny fraction of China's resources. Why do you think that is?

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There are a few key flaws in your analysis, and none of them have to do with what type of government rules in Beijing:

1) China only opened itself to capitalism, via the Special Economic Zones, in the 1980's. Its capitalism is new, and thus its growth is new.

2) China's annual growth rate is higher than any nation in the world, at 11.5% annually before the economic downturn, and is predicted to remain at approx. 7.5% through to the end of 2009 (and that is considered a 19 year low!). It has enough internal momentum to sustain large gains as its market is based on real assets.

3) China's GDP is 24 trillion RMB which equates to approximately $3.5 trillion USD annually. That is nothing to scough at for a "third world" nation.

4) The per capita GDP that you have provided calculations for is based on population alone. Of course China's will be less, it has a billion and a half people!

Additionally, your assessment of its command economy is flawed. China, for all intents and purposes, is now a capitalist economy with free enterprise. The government controls very little in terms of business expansion and investment. The Communists largely continue to control social policy in order to prevent the capitalist flow of profit from being disrupted. That is the modern China, and not the one you have described.

What do you mean by "collapse"? That America will become some sort of high tech Somalia, gun enthusiasts defending their refrigerators with Armalites?

Orius said:

There are a few key flaws in your analysis, and none of them have to do with what type of government rules in Beijing:

1) China only opened itself to capitalism, via the Special Economic Zones, in the 1980's. Its capitalism is new, and thus its growth is new.

2) China's annual growth rate is higher than any nation in the world, at 11.5% annually before the economic downturn, and is predicted to remain at approx. 7.5% through to the end of 2009 (and that is considered a 19 year low!). It has enough internal momentum to sustain large gains as its market is based on real assets.

3) China's GDP is 24 trillion RMB which equates to approximately $3.5 trillion USD annually. That is nothing to scough at for a "third world" nation.

4) The per capita GDP that you have provided calculations for is based on population alone. Of course China's will be less, it has a billion and a half people!

Additionally, your assessment of its command economy is flawed. China, for all intents and purposes, is now a capitalist economy with free enterprise. The government controls very little in terms of business expansion and investment. The Communists largely continue to control social policy in order to prevent the capitalist flow of profit from being disrupted. That is the modern China, and not the one you have described.

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China's Per Capita Income (PPP) is $6,100 and real growth rate is 9.8%.

In developed areas its Per Capita Income is far higher than that.

To put it into perspective, India's Per Capita Income is only $2,900.

You are correct, for all intents and purposes China has a market economy. In many ways its one of the most business friendly environments on earth because of the amount of cooperation companies get from the government there at local and national levels.

Citizens actually have a large amount of freedom in China now with the exception of openly criticizing their government (which is a big limitation on liberty). Having traveled there I can say that people in China go about their lives pretty much just like people here do.

Let me point out one other thing. A lot of people on here that represent the far right seem to be remarkably ignorant of the history of communism. Nation's do not gradually embrace communism. Liberalism does not lead to communism. In fact, communist regimes have always despised liberals because of their advocacy for civil liberties. Communism almost always follows extreme right wing regimes and comes about as a result of a revolt. If you don't want communism, then you should guard against extreme concentrations of wealth because that is what makes communism appeal to the masses. Communism comes about as a reaction against extreme right wing and or feudalistic regimes, not as a natural progression of liberalism.