Continued Evolution of Automation and Machine Learning

Although automation and machine learning is not new, with the outbreak of COVID-19, social distancing and the layoff of many, grocery stores have begun to transition some of the workload using automation. Tasks which are repeatable and predictable are perfect candidates for automation to manage, including cleaning the floors, mopping, inventory management and grocery delivery.

Grocery Stores Turn to Robots During Corona Virus

What type of impact would you predict in the future as the adoption of automation continues to evolve? How do you see this impacting low-wage workers for for jobs which are repeatable and predictable?

jotathought said:

What type of impact would you predict in the future as the adoption of automation continues to evolve?

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We know what the impact will be: a much wealthier society with a higher standard of living for everyone.

How do you see this impacting low-wage workers for for jobs which are repeatable and predictable?

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Who cares.

jotathought said:

Although automation and machine learning is not new, with the outbreak of COVID-19, social distancing and the layoff of many, grocery stores have begun to transition some of the workload using automation. Tasks which are repeatable and predictable are perfect candidates for automation to manage, including cleaning the floors, mopping, inventory management and grocery delivery.

Grocery Stores Turn to Robots During Corona Virus

What type of impact would you predict in the future as the adoption of automation continues to evolve? How do you see this impacting low-wage workers for for jobs which are repeatable and predictable?

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It will have a significant impact on many areas of society, but especially the workforce.

Automation works best when mass producing something; taking over tedious, repetitious, but necessary production work while maintaining maximum production output. It would still require constant maintenance, which can be done with a fraction of the personnel such systems would replace.

Currently low-skilled and unskilled workers might have reduced opportunities in low-level labor fields, but there would not be enough work to go around.

The effects would be to push more people into any labor jobs that require enough intelligence to react and self-modify. Things like plumbing, electrical repair, construction, etc.. As well as any service-type jobs that require personal interaction for customer-service satisfaction.

But it would also compel new generations to seek education and training in technology, engineering, and other practical/hard science fields, as well as higher education in professional doctorates (Law, Medicine, Psychology, etc.) to handle social issues.

jotathought said:

Although automation and machine learning is not new, with the outbreak of COVID-19, social distancing and the layoff of many, grocery stores have begun to transition some of the workload using automation. Tasks which are repeatable and predictable are perfect candidates for automation to manage, including cleaning the floors, mopping, inventory management and grocery delivery.

Grocery Stores Turn to Robots During Corona Virus

What type of impact would you predict in the future as the adoption of automation continues to evolve? How do you see this impacting low-wage workers for for jobs which are repeatable and predictable?

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It won't just be low skill work. I watch them trying to replace highly skilled workers daily.

swing_voter said:

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I hadn't seen automation used for burger flipping ... fascinating. The clip mentioned each unit costing $60K. Not factoring in maintenance, repairs, employee benefits, overtime, etc., a single unit would be equivalent to 4 minimum wage employees (@ $7.50/hr) working a full time position for a single year (or 2 making $15/hr) and it wouldn't walk out. I'd be curious to see what the return on investment would be for the lifetime of a single unit and how long it would take to realize it.

Helix said:

It won't just be low skill work. I watch them trying to replace highly skilled workers daily.

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I definitely would not discount highly skilled workers, especially if their occupation has many repeatable steps (e.g. an accountant)

Captain Adverse said:

It will have a significant impact on many areas of society, but especially the workforce.

Automation works best when mass producing something; taking over tedious, repetitious, but necessary production work while maintaining maximum production output. It would still require constant maintenance, which can be done with a fraction of the personnel such systems would replace.

Currently low-skilled and unskilled workers might have reduced opportunities in low-level labor fields, but there would not be enough work to go around.

The effects would be to push more people into any labor jobs that require enough intelligence to react and self-modify. Things like plumbing, electrical repair, construction, etc.. As well as any service-type jobs that require personal interaction for customer-service satisfaction.

But it would also compel new generations to seek education and training in technology, engineering, and other practical/hard science fields, as well as higher education in professional doctorates (Law, Medicine, Psychology, etc.) to handle social issues.

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Articulated very well ...

Helix said:

It won't just be low skill work. I watch them trying to replace highly skilled workers daily.

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Even better.

For example, think of all the highly skilled jobs killed by spreadsheets, and the enormous benefits that came from killing those jobs.

aociswundumho said:

Even better.

For example, think of all the highly skilled jobs killed by spreadsheets, and the enormous benefits that came from killing those jobs.

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I'd say you next, but I'm not that much of an asshole. What I will say is that it's pay people to work or pay them not to. I prefer the former.

jotathought said:

Although automation and machine learning is not new, with the outbreak of COVID-19, social distancing and the layoff of many, grocery stores have begun to transition some of the workload using automation. Tasks which are repeatable and predictable are perfect candidates for automation to manage, including cleaning the floors, mopping, inventory management and grocery delivery.

Grocery Stores Turn to Robots During Corona Virus

What type of impact would you predict in the future as the adoption of automation continues to evolve? How do you see this impacting low-wage workers for for jobs which are repeatable and predictable?

Click to expand...

Machine learning is a very specific type of automation.

When people think about automation, usually they are referring to physical tasks. Industrial processes. Flipping burgers. Self-driving cars. Of these three examples, only self-driving cars rely on machine learning, which is a combination of statistics and mathematical optimization.

But both physical and computational automation will phase out some workers and create jobs for others. Adaptation will be everything, and our society had better be ready for this shift that is already underway.

jotathought said:

Although automation and machine learning is not new, with the outbreak of COVID-19, social distancing and the layoff of many, grocery stores have begun to transition some of the workload using automation. Tasks which are repeatable and predictable are perfect candidates for automation to manage, including cleaning the floors, mopping, inventory management and grocery delivery.

Grocery Stores Turn to Robots During Corona Virus

What type of impact would you predict in the future as the adoption of automation continues to evolve? How do you see this impacting low-wage workers for for jobs which are repeatable and predictable?

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What makes you think it will be low wage workers? Automation, and computers in general, are wiping out lots of middle class jobs.

But the main effect of automation/computers will be an accelerating wealth gap. Those with the technical skills to implement the automation and keep it running will own McMansions, while the other 80% will be living in trailer parks.

All of my grown kids are in highly technical fields, and all of them make six figure incomes. They often hire near minimum wage workers. The only difference between my kids and those minimum wage workers is technical skill.

When I say technical skill, I don't mean engineers, unless you're talking about software engineers. Engineers are now a dime a dozen. Way oversupply. I mean actual technical skill. Often hands on technical skill. My neighbors boy works in the field on diesel equipment; he makes six figures. Like I said; the people who can actually keep it all running.

Which is a shame considering what little effort is required to gain those skills.

My company will pay for your school. Only need an Associates. We can’t find people to hire for open equipment technicians. No one does it. The sad reality is, few people are willing to make the effort. And they would prefer to shame those who do, and pretend my effort has made them a victim.

Helix said:

What I will say is that it's pay people to work or pay them not to.

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Automation does not reduce the overall number of jobs. It's been going on for hundreds of years, and the number of jobs has only gone up.

Helix said:

I'd say you next, but I'm not that much of an asshole. What I will say is that it's pay people to work or pay them not to. I prefer the former.

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Unemployment has not increased and yet we’ve had massive amounts of automation and population growth. The market always finds a way to use the freed up labor. There is always more to be done.

jotathought said:

I hadn't seen automation used for burger flipping ... fascinating. The clip mentioned each unit costing $60K. Not factoring in maintenance, repairs, employee benefits, overtime, etc., a single unit would be equivalent to 4 minimum wage employees (@ $7.50/hr) working a full time position for a single year (or 2 making $15/hr) and it wouldn't walk out. I'd be curious to see what the return on investment would be for the lifetime of a single unit and how long it would take to realize it.

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This is a classic example of a poor approach to automation. Why is there a need to replicate flipping a burger like a human? The result desired by the CUSTOMER is a well cooked burger. Burger King has used a chain conveyor to cook burgers for years. Much simpler, cheaper and easier to maintain.


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BlueTex said:

This is a classic example of a poor approach to automation. Why is there a need to replicate flipping a burger like a human? The result desired by the CUSTOMER is a well cooked burger. Burger King has used a chain conveyor to cook burgers for years. Much simpler, cheaper and easier to maintain.


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First, what the CUSTOMER desires is not the only factor. Second, a chain conveyor is automation...


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Aberration said:

First, what the CUSTOMER desires is not the only factor.

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Unless of course, you are trying to make a profitable business...

Aberration said:

Unemployment has not increased and yet we’ve had massive amounts of automation and population growth. The market always finds a way to use the freed up labor. There is always more to be done.

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That's an exceptionally optimistic view of what I'm seeing every day.

BlueTex said:

This is a classic example of a poor approach to automation. Why is there a need to replicate flipping a burger like a human? The result desired by the CUSTOMER is a well cooked burger. Burger King has used a chain conveyor to cook burgers for years. Much simpler, cheaper and easier to maintain.


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Thinking off the top of my head -- leveraging robots to automate tasks like flipping burgers would increase productivity and consistency while reducing workforce overhead and the associated incomes/benefits. Knowledge is expensive and in a high-turnover occupation like fast food, it would negate the need to onboard new resources, train them, feed them and pay them.

Captain Adverse said:

It will have a significant impact on many areas of society, but especially the workforce.

Automation works best when mass producing something; taking over tedious, repetitious, but necessary production work while maintaining maximum production output. It would still require constant maintenance, which can be done with a fraction of the personnel such systems would replace.

Currently low-skilled and unskilled workers might have reduced opportunities in low-level labor fields, but there would not be enough work to go around.

The effects would be to push more people into any labor jobs that require enough intelligence to react and self-modify. Things like plumbing, electrical repair, construction, etc.. As well as any service-type jobs that require personal interaction for customer-service satisfaction.

But it would also compel new generations to seek education and training in technology, engineering, and other practical/hard science fields, as well as higher education in professional doctorates (Law, Medicine, Psychology, etc.) to handle social issues.

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There are already more lawyers than jobs for them. Much of the daily work done by lawyers and their support staff can already be partially automated. I think trade work is safe for the time being. Tech and engineering is safe too for now.

The problem is, you get a 100 people in a room, and you will quickly see that half of them just don't have the intellect to do tech / engineering / science type jobs.

jotathought said:

Thinking off the top of my head -- leveraging robots to automate tasks like flipping burgers would increase productivity and consistency while reducing workforce overhead and the associated incomes/benefits. Knowledge is expensive and in a high-turnover occupation like fast food, it would negate the need to onboard new resources, train them, feed them and pay them.

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Automated Flame Broilers, Automatic Broilers, Nieco Flame Broilers

jotathought said:

Although automation and machine learning is not new, with the outbreak of COVID-19, social distancing and the layoff of many, grocery stores have begun to transition some of the workload using automation. Tasks which are repeatable and predictable are perfect candidates for automation to manage, including cleaning the floors, mopping, inventory management and grocery delivery.

Click to expand...

It should be noted that there are lots of terms and concepts commonly used interchangeably or incorrectly, conflating and confusing matters.

We've have automation for centuries, probably starting with the waterwheel. The term really covers any machine that doesn't require routine human intervention to operate normally. They've been significantly replacing and altering jobs since the industrial revolution. New and different kinds of automation have continued to be developed ever since and that isn't going to change.

jotathought said:

What type of impact would you predict in the future as the adoption of automation continues to evolve? How do you see this impacting low-wage workers for for jobs which are repeatable and predictable?

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I predict that most predictions will be wrong. Just look at some of the "world of the future" ideas that were popular in the 1950s and 60s. We never got our flying cars or Robbie The Robot style maids.

I suspect that things won't change as much or as quickly as many people feared. As I said, we saw essentially the same thing during the industrial revolution and while that did cause all sort of conflict and problems, we worked through it to the point that reversing it now would be infinitely more disruptive. A lot of the things being promoted in articles like this proofs-of-concept, early adopters or extensive marketing schemes. There is a lot of much more boring automation in the supermarket business (like others) but that never gets any attention because it's in black boxes behind the scenes. They're much more impactful though, for good and bad. People make such a big thing out of a (semi) automated flour cleaner but don't think twice about ordering their shopping online.

BlueTex said:

This is a classic example of a poor approach to automation. Why is there a need to replicate flipping a burger like a human?

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Because it reduces the price of burgers, that means more people can afford to eat out, which benefits the population, and it means the restaurant sells more burgers, which is good for the restaurant.

aociswundumho said:

Because it reduces the price of burgers, that means more people can afford to eat out, which benefits the population, and it means the restaurant sells more burgers, which is good for the restaurant.

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Which is cheaper? A robotic arm mimicking a human flipping a burger or an automated broiler that has been around for over a decade? I'm not arguing the business case for replacing a human with some type of automation, I am skeptical that we need a fancy articulated arm to cook a hamburger patty.