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Trump vs Sanders Map

Which best describes your opinion of map?

  • Map is accurate - Trump is in trouble

    Votes: 1 5.0%

  • Map is accurate - Sanders would be in trouble

    Votes: 8 40.0%

  • Map is not accurate - Trump is in much better shape

    Votes: 5 25.0%

  • Map is not accurate - Sanders is in much better shape

    Votes: 3 15.0%

  • Map is accurate for any dem

    Votes: 3 15.0%

  • Map would be different for another dem

    Votes: 4 20.0%
  • Total voters
    20
WCH said:
It's terribly hard to tell.

The media has described it as "an opening for the Democrats"
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There is a difference between rejoicing in an economic crash and using an economic crash for a political advantage.

No one, no one reasonable anyhow, is rooting for our economy to fail. No one wants Americans to suffer. No one wants America to be worse. Some believe that a crash is inevitable and that it would be better for the inevitable to happen now rather than later. Some believe that creating massive debt and deficits is falsely inflating our economy and it is unsustainable. Anyhow there is a difference between rejoining over a market crash, and acknowledging that it is coming and being happy that the person responsible may be held responsible for it when the inevitable happens.
 
swing_voter said:
Good news for Trump.

During primaries, the candidates always beat the incumbent president in polls. Once the general election starts, things even out.

If Bernie isn't way ahead at this point, the odds of him beating Trump in the general are pretty slim.
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Nonsense. What you are saying is no poll has ever shown the incumbent leading any of his challengers. Guess what? Every poll has shown Bernie Sanders either leading Donald Trump or slightly behind him inside the margin of error.

It also makes absolutely no sense to dismiss Sanders so early in the race, before Trump has even run in a southern state contest.
 
Blue Donkey said:
Nonsense. What you are saying is no poll has ever shown the incumbent leading any of his challengers. Guess what? Every poll has shown Bernie Sanders either leading Donald Trump or slightly behind him inside the margin of error.
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Most of those polls reflect the popular vote. Not the same thing since that doesn't equate to victory.
 
Not gonna lie it'd be ****ing hilarious if Sanders wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.
 
Kreton said:
Most of those polls reflect the popular vote. Not the same thing since that doesn't equate to victory.
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Election Day results cannot really be used for this purpose because the RNC uses the 'winner take all" system for assigning delegates. Donald Trump does not need to win a majoirty of the popular vote, just win the most states. To get an accurate picture, we need to compare apples to apples.
 
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Blue Donkey said:
Election Day results can't really be used because the RNC uses the 'winner take all" system for assigning delegates. Donald Trump does not need to win a majoirty of the popular vote, just win the most states.
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You are missing my point. The polls that show Bernie and Trump right now with Bernie winning are showing the popular vote. Trump does not need the popular vote, and in all likelihood will not get it. He can lose by 5 million votes and still win. There is no question Trump will win more states at this point. But that isn't have he will win the election.

Electoral College decides the presidency. Nothing else.
 
The website in the OP shows this is not true in Nebraska.

The changes from that generic map to the Sanders map? Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Virginia, as well as Nebraska's 2nd District (Nebraska gives out electoral votes to the popular vote winner of each of its congressional seats), all move in Republicans' direction.
Click to expand...
 
Kreton said:
There is a difference between rejoicing in an economic crash and using an economic crash for a political advantage.

No one, no one reasonable anyhow, is rooting for our economy to fail. No one wants Americans to suffer. No one wants America to be worse. Some believe that a crash is inevitable and that it would be better for the inevitable to happen now rather than later. Some believe that creating massive debt and deficits is falsely inflating our economy and it is unsustainable. Anyhow there is a difference between rejoining over a market crash, and acknowledging that it is coming and being happy that the person responsible may be held responsible for it when the inevitable happens.
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Rational example;

A Hollywood Star Calls for America to Kick Trump Out of Office - Via a Coordinated, Total Economic Shutdown
 
Kreton said:
That might be my favorite outcome just to watch the Trump meltdown that follows.

But no Democrat has ever lost the popular vote and won.
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Totally misleading statement. Do you know how many times it happened?
 
Blue Donkey said:
The website in the OP shows this is not true in Nebraska.
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trump won ME-02 in 2016, even though the DEM Golden won the House seat after RCV was applied. I’m seeing RCV saving Sen. Collins.

Obama won NE-02 in 2008. The unicameral Nebraska legislature then gerrymandered a flip of about 30,000 votes to give it to Romney in 2012

Sanders’ supporters, along with those of Warren and other reasonable leftists, must make the case for his proposals in the general election. People like me will be truth trashing trump.

trump flipped five Midwest states worth 70 EC votes — IA, WI, MI, OH, PA. In addition, the Midwest is shedding population to ‘southern swing’ states like NC, GA, FL, and AZ; making them doubly important.
 
Phys251 said:
That map seems about right but a little friendly to Sanders. I don't see a socialist winning the Midwest.

Still, anything could change in the next eight months. A stock market crash, a pandemic... ;)
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Your assessment is that all the candidates at the debate are moderates except for Sanders. Everyone of them with the
possible exception of Bloomy have followed Sanders the 'Pied Piper' more further to the left than Obama ever was.
In fact two dropouts Beto & Gellibrand tried to even get to the left of Sanders himself. They are all socialists without
a significant following Bernies advantage is that he has a whale of a following!
 
Blue Donkey said:
Totally misleading statement. Do you know how many times it happened?
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Democrats have won the popular vote 4 times while losing the Electoral College, including two of the last five elections. Democrats must rebuild their wall and expand it.

Repubs want to rescind the 17th and 16th amendments; no doubt the 19th also. Imagine the electoral carnage in the Senate, which is already an Electoral College, without the 17th.

Imagine the devastation to the safety nets for those in need without the 16th. Ordinary Americans need to know how gilded repubs want to make wealth inequality far worse than it already is.
 
Linc said:
Democrats have won the popular vote 4 times while losing the Electoral College, including two of the last five elections. Democrats must rebuild their wall and expand it.

Republicans want to rescind the 17th and 16th amendments; no doubt the 19th also. Imagine the electoral carnage in the Senate, which is already an Electoral College, without the 17th.

Imagine the devastation to the safety nets for those in need without the 16th. Ordinary Americans need to know how gilded Republicans want to make wealth inequality far worse than it already is.
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Why would Republicans want to repeal the 19th Amendment? There are many conservative women. Last time I checked, The Equality State (Wyoming) is red.

I don't know what the word carnage means, but the EC was created by the Fouthing Fathers and always a stupid idea. It never made any sense.

Poor, elderly, and disabled Americans have always known Republicans are totally selfish with their money. Ordinary Americans refuse to accept that fact if they do not personally know anyone who is in poverty and struggling to survive.
 
swing_voter said:
Good news for Trump.

During primaries, the candidates always beat the incumbent president in polls. Once the general election starts, things even out.

If Bernie isn't way ahead at this point, the odds of him beating Trump in the general are pretty slim.
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It's usually the opposite actually. The heat of the primaries are where Obama's polling average over Romney peaked and where Bush's lead over Kerry was the strongest until Kerry imploded a bit in September.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

RealClearPolitics - Election 2004 - General Election: Bush vs. Kerry

The same is also generally the case in smaller races. When one party is divided in a primary and the other one isn't, the undivided party usually polls better against the splintered candidates than they eventually perform when the divided party narrows down to one candidate and the supporters of the other candidates drift home.
 
Kreton said:
Here's what a Sanders-Trump map could look like - CNNPolitics

Take a look at the above link. Seems accurate to me based on how things look right now without any super political day dreaming. Based on this map I think Sanders has a tough road ahead.

Holding on to MN, MI, and VA with a socialism tagline is not going to be easy. Also seems hard to pull right leaning states like Oh and IA.

What do you think?

Map is accurate - Trump is in trouble (meaning Trump is trouble if map is accurate)
Map is accurate - Sanders would be in trouble (meaning Sanders is trouble if map is accurate)
Map is not accurate - Trump is in much better shape (meaning Trump is in better shape than map indicates)
Map is not accurate - Sanders is in much better shape (meaning Sanders is in better shape than map indicates)
Map is accurate for any dem
Map would be different for another dem
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Anything from CNN is biased. But, even CNN's map shows Trump winning. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not toss ups, particularly Wisconsin. Oddsmakers who bet billions of dollars have Trump the huge favorite to win, much more than 50/50.
 
Kreton said:
I saw that one and I personally don't buy into it. Especially with Sanders as a nominee. Sanders cannot win Florida in my opinion. But there is nothing wrong with optimism. I hope you are right. I really do.
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RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Sanders

The most recent UNF poll has Sanders vs Trump in Florida at a Tie. The FAU poll in January has Sanders up by 6 points. The only poll where he's losing was taken way back in December.
 
swing_voter said:
Good news for Trump.

During primaries, the candidates always beat the incumbent president in polls. Once the general election starts, things even out.

If Bernie isn't way ahead at this point, the odds of him beating Trump in the general are pretty slim.
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Agreed on all points.

The reason there's a difference between opinion polls and voting is because there's a difference between someone being asked a question and that person actually showing up on Election Day.

2uu0lk.jpg
 
WCH said:
IMO, they will go to any lengths to destroy Trump/the Right. Look what they've put this country through over the last 3 years!
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Disagreed. Sure, there are always a few nutjobs who'd do such a thing just like there are RWNJs on this forum supporting Russia against the US military and intelligence services, but all are a tiny minority compared to the main groups
 
One thing I dont think people are taking into account is a ruling last year that said the electoral college can vote however they want, regardless of how the states populations vote.

Electoral College Members Can Defy Voters’ Wishes, Court Rules - The New York Times

This could come into play if the SCOTUS rules to allow electors to choose whoever they want. It won't matter how the states vote, only how those 538 voters feel, vote.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk
 
aociswundumho said:
Many in VA are angry over the gun control debacle, they may go Trump over it.
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many will .... many will not, nor will the State VA, which along with Colorado, has moved into the blue camp and thus generally out of Trump's reach.

Dutch Uncle said:
Agreed on all points.

The reason there's a difference between opinion polls and voting is because there's a difference between someone being asked a question and that person actually showing up on Election Day.
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.,.yes, but election polls are opinion polls with a projection of voter turnout. It does make the election polls much trickier than a mere opinion poll, but election polls by and large are pretty good. The polls above referenced herein are election polls.
 
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Axe Cap said:
Bernie is not beating Trump in Florida, especially with his love for Castro.
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Bernie was very clear he did NOT love Castro. Sanders haters intentionally twist his comments by cherry-picking. I actually watched the whole SC debate. Sanders said he belives in giving credit to people who do something good even if they are/were big enemies. In his answer to the moderator's question, he talked about opposing all foreign dictators. It is a shame people love to take comments completely out of context just to hate on a guy.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
Agreed on all points.

The reason there's a difference between opinion polls and voting is because there's a difference between someone being asked a question and that person actually showing up on Election Day.
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There is another reason: Polls have margins of error. Elections don't. Eitther you showed up and voted for Sanders or you showed up and voted for Trump.
 
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