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Has Bernie Sanders basically won the nomination?

Has Sanders basically won the nomination?

  • Definitely will win

    Votes: 4 6.6%

  • Probably will win

    Votes: 35 57.4%

  • Uncertain either way

    Votes: 17 27.9%

  • Probably will NOT win

    Votes: 4 6.6%

  • Definitely will NOT win

    Votes: 1 1.6%
  • Total voters
    61
  • Poll closed .
FieldTheorist said:
It's really easy to tell that someone doesn't understand the current political meta when they say something like "Klobuchar is likely to give their support to Bernie." If Klobuchar was going to give her support to Bernie, she'd do it this week and endorse this week because as a political operative this would maximize the amount she could get from Bernie (if she drops, he'll go from #2 to #1 in Minnesota, which would be very good for Bernie). So if she wanted to get VP or similar, now is the time. The problem is that 100% of her millionaire donors are backing her as an attempt to stop Bernie from winning, and she's very clear (and very incorrect) on her belief that Sanders cannot win the general election.
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Well, you may be correct in that I don't understand the current political meta. Never claimed I was a real expert on American politics like so many here.

Just my own thoughts as I said I was just thinking possible outcomes.

Sometimes I question the waste of time I spend here on this forum. To me we are all like dogs barking in the backyard for the sake of barking.

We take ourselves way too seriously that we are made of wise lifetime experiences that have shaped us to be some type of authority.

But even though we all have different perspectives I still have a warm spot for the DP group photo many of us participated in last summer.

5ce5e2ceac058952506371f624c27e8f--group-photos-in-the-backyard[1].jpg
 
Kreton said:
If 2-3 people don't drop out before Super Tuesday Bernie is the nominee.
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I think you are correct - especially if he wins a majority of the delegates on Super Tuesday. The Sanders machine will be running high gear with no real opponent.
 
FieldTheorist said:
I really haven't been following this election cycle. However since yesterday's election, I have begun to read every single bit of state polling, demographic favorability polling + the exit polling of the three states for far, and little bit the punditry. I've thought through the scenarios of how each candidate could drop out and who that would hurt and help, especially relative to what's left on the map.


I cannot come up with any reasonable scenario where any other candidate has a plausible shot at the nomination. To summarize:

1.) By the end of March, >60% of delegates will be set in stone, and it looks like Bernie is leading half of the states with high single or even double digits (including Texas and California) and basically is a very close #2 in every state where he's not #1. The remaining candidates all have failed to seriously break into wider demographics. Everyone else, except maybe Biden, will come in 3, 4, or 5 more often than not. If everyone stays, this basically decreases the likelihood of any shake up.

2.) Now then, what if people drop? Well, actually, there's a good reason Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Biden have all stayed. Most of these candidates #2 choice is Bernie, meaning that if anyone of them drop the person who'll be helped the most is likely Sanders. Given Sanders is second choice for most of them + the perception that he's the winning candidate right now, no establishment candidate can safely drop before Super Tuesday without possibly seriously helping Sanders on Super Tuesday. They just ran out the clock on their option to do this; it's simply too late to do this effectively now.

3.) And if people drop (and they will) after Super Tuesday, it basically means whoever is left will likely be fighting against Bernie --who will have a ~3 point lead in delegates, a cash surplus, he will probably have the momentum, and has the most energized base. Oh and also all current polling shows that in all 1-vs-1 situations, Bernie beats his primary contenders.


Yes, shake-ups happen, but it's looking less and less possible as the election continues.
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Basically, yes. In the bag, no. I too have been going over super Tuesday polls. California, Texas, North Carolina, Maine, Virginia, Utah and Colorado all look like Sanders wins. Of course Warren wins her home state of Massachusetts and Klobuchar her home state of Minnesota. Bloomberg leads in Oklahoma.

I wouldn't write Sanders off in South Carolina either. He has narrowed an 18 point lead down to 3 since 1 Feb. The trend, momentum if you will is at Sanders back. It this trend continues through Super Tuesday, Sanders will become the presumptive nominee and perhaps the guaranteed nominee as others drop out by the end of March, first part of April. But there is always the unforeseen, a huge mistake, an unexpected event or happening, something that pops up from Sanders past. I don't expect that, but it is possible. If I had to put a percentage on it today, I'd give Sanders 90%, Biden and Bloomberg 5% each discounting everyone else.

If Biden can hang on and win South Carolina, that could change the dynamics in a couple of Super Tuesday states that are very close at this point. Then the percentages change.
 
It's all about money, momentum, and electability now. Sanders has all three, as the Dems desperately look for someone to rally behind against Trump.
 
FieldTheorist said:
It's really easy to tell that someone doesn't understand the current political meta when they say something like "Klobuchar is likely to give their support to Bernie." If Klobuchar was going to give her support to Bernie, she'd do it this week and endorse this week because as a political operative this would maximize the amount she could get from Bernie (if she drops, he'll go from #2 to #1 in Minnesota, which would be very good for Bernie). So if she wanted to get VP or similar, now is the time. The problem is that 100% of her millionaire donors are backing her as an attempt to stop Bernie from winning, and she's very clear (and very incorrect) on her belief that Sanders cannot win the general election.
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I think you are incorrect on all counts.

Amy will support the dem nominee and that includes Bernie Sanders.
Amy and Bernie can be easily working together at this point already.
No in backing Amy simply to defeat Bernie, those who are backing her are backing her because they like her.
Sanders can win the general election. He could also lose it.

I don't think anyting you stated that entire post is a fact, it is all an opinion so assuming that because someone doesn't buy into your opinion means they don't understand the political meta is demeaning and just flat out wrong. Crosscheck's opinion makes just as much sense, if not more, than yours.
 
vesper said:
I am not sure at this point if most of the Democratic party really care if their candidate is a socialist. A recent Gallup poll said 76% of Democrats would vote for a socialist. The poll however also stated that the majority of Americans would not support a socialist. Personally I find it very sad that so many in the U.S. would be fine with voting for a socialist.

Majority of voters would not back a socialist for president: Poll

I know the Democratic establishment is really concerned over Bernie winning the nomination. They see real damage on down ticket races in purple and red states. They are calling for those who have no chance of achieving the nomination to get out of the race now so as to allow those who do to coalesce to counter Sanders. I have no idea how this will turn out but it is really interesting to watch. But if you watched the round table on ABC today Christie said if Bernie gets the nomination, Republicans will be happy because it will be a race between Socialism vs Capitalism. If Bernie gets the most votes heading to the convention and the super delegates take it away from him, the Republicans will be ecstatic.

If you happen to still be up President Trump and the First Lady have been welcomed in India. They are saying no prior U.S president has received such an elaborate welcome. It started with the bear hug President Modi gave President Trump. The streets are lined with people as the president's motorcade travels to the next destination. Quite impressive.
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Yes, if James Carville had any hair, he'd be pulling it all out right now. Will be very interesting to see how this goes. Is there a scenario that benefits the Democrat party? If they strip the nomination with superdelegates, they fracture the party. If Bernie wins and suffers a huge defeat then we have a other McGovern moment (and hopefully the death of progressivism for a few decades). If Bernie actually wins - is that the death of the Democrat party as we know it as it veers off into another direction? We already know which direction the stock market would veer :mrgreen:.
 
It's not over until it's over. Something may happen that will turn the tide on Sanders. Too early to tell.
 
I think we'll have a better picture after Super Tuesday. It's possible that he'll grab the nomination, but it's not a foregone conclusion at this point.
 
At the risk of having to eat crow, I still say they aren't going to let Sanders have the nomination.
 
Taylor said:
Yes, if James Carville had any hair, he'd be pulling it all out right now. Will be very interesting to see how this goes. Is there a scenario that benefits the Democrat party? If they strip the nomination with superdelegates, they fracture the party. If Bernie wins and suffers a huge defeat then we have a other McGovern moment (and hopefully the death of progressivism for a few decades). If Bernie actually wins - is that the death of the Democrat party as we know it as it veers off into another direction? We already know which direction the stock market would veer :mrgreen:.
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I guess Bernie was interviewed on 60 minutes still defending Castro. Even Democratic Representatives in FL. that have a large group of Cuban Americans in their districts were appalled by his comments. Rep. Donna Shalala and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell both came out swinging against Sanders. Some are saying because of his views on Castro it could cause him to lose Fla in the election.
Bernie Sanders may have just lost Florida to President Trump

The Miami Herald and other newspapers have been cranking out articles in disgust over Bernie's comments. The Democratic Florida primary is in 23 days or there about. Doubt Sanders is going to see the Latino support in Florida like he enjoyed in NV.

Bernie Sanders on Castro’s Cuba: ‘It’s unfair to say everything is bad.'''
 
Crosscheck said:
Well, you may be correct in that I don't understand the current political meta. Never claimed I was a real expert on American politics like so many here.

Just my own thoughts as I said I was just thinking possible outcomes.

Sometimes I question the waste of time I spend here on this forum. To me we are all like dogs barking in the backyard for the sake of barking.

We take ourselves way too seriously that we are made of wise lifetime experiences that have shaped us to be some type of authority.

But even though we all have different perspectives I still have a warm spot for the DP group photo many of us participated in last summer.

View attachment 67274338
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I could be the Yellow Lab on the lower right. Looks just like my dog.
Are they mostly Democrats or Republicans?
 
Kreton said:
If 2-3 people don't drop out before Super Tuesday Bernie is the nominee.
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That is exactly wrong. The more candidates, the more likely Sanders will not make 50%. While the Sander's campaign openly and intensely opposes democracy and wants the most militant minority to totally control the majority, in fact it takes 50% of the delegates to gain the nomination. Historically, having the most delegates - but not a majority - did not automatically mean the candidate with the most got the nomination. In fact, it has gone the other way.
 
MovingPictures said:
The only thing that could bring him back to Earth is Biden having a great debate, Bloomberg having a second implosion on stage, and then Biden winning SC in a strong showing.

That could shuffle some of the support of other centrists back over to Biden, which could bring him several Super Tuesday wins. If Biden can finish a close second on ST, then he could be positioned to do really well in the later March primaries, which are less favorable to Sanders.

What's incredible has been watching Biden collapse and become a backrunner, then seeing Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg implode and give him a chance to come back from the dead.
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Joe Biden was always the favorite to win South Carolina. There is nothing amazing about that. Biden's campaign has already stated a loss there will end it for him.

Expect Mike Bloomberg to implode again.
 
vesper said:
I guess Bernie was interviewed on 60 minutes still defending Castro. Even Democratic Representatives in FL. that have a large group of Cuban Americans in their districts were appalled by his comments. Rep. Donna Shalala and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell both came out swinging against Sanders. Some are saying because of his views on Castro it could cause him to lose Fla in the election.
Bernie Sanders may have just lost Florida to President Trump

The Miami Herald and other newspapers have been cranking out articles in disgust over Bernie's comments. The Democratic Florida primary is in 23 days or there about. Doubt Sanders is going to see the Latino support in Florida like he enjoyed in NV.

Bernie Sanders on Castro’s Cuba: ‘It’s unfair to say everything is bad.'''
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I wonder if Michael Moore still goes to Cuba for their stellar healthcare?
 
FieldTheorist said:
I agree that she should stay in the race, but that's because I'm a Sanders supporter and I want to see him win.
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The fewer people there are on the ballot, the better chances one of them will win over half of the votes and delegates. We need to see more candidates drop out.
 
vesper said:
Buttigieg came in a distant 3rd and with over 80% of the votes counted in the second round he has not earned any delegates. However his campaign is complaining about irregularities asking for recounts of votes.
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This is not an accurate statement. Pete Buttigieg got delegates in Iowa and New Hampshire.He also was a close second by the popular vote count in both states. Remember this is not a winner-take-all like the Republican primaries and caucuses.
 
Redress said:
538 has him at about 46 % to win the majority of delegates, which sounds about right. He is a favorite to win, but there are a whole lot of ways he could lose. Hopefully, something happens to bring him down.
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"hopefully"? It seems like you don't want the dem voters choosing their own candidate. If they like Bernie better, then that's the way it is.
 
joko104 said:
That is exactly wrong. The more candidates, the more likely Sanders will not make 50%. While the Sander's campaign openly and intensely opposes democracy and wants the most militant minority to totally control the majority, in fact it takes 50% of the delegates to gain the nomination. Historically, having the most delegates - but not a majority - did not automatically mean the candidate with the most got the nomination. In fact, it has gone the other way.
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Look for a revolt if the DNC tries to steal the nomination from Sanders. I bet some will stay home or vote for Trump out of spite and I wouldn't blame them.
 
bradt99 said:
Look for a revolt if the DNC tries to steal the nomination from Sanders. I bet some will stay home or vote for Trump out of spite and I wouldn't blame them.
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Yes, some may stay home. Or some may go third party. Or some may do a write in.

And NO - progressive Dems who are Sanders will NOT vote for Trump as they hate and despise him totally and completely.
 
Kreton said:
If 2-3 people don't drop out before Super Tuesday Bernie is the nominee.
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Even then it’s a long shot for Bloomy.
 
haymarket said:
Yes, some may stay home. Or some may go third party. Or some may do a write in.

And NO - progressive Dems who are Sanders will NOT vote for Trump as they hate and despise him totally and completely.
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You don’t know that.

:)
 
Crosscheck said:
Well, you may be correct in that I don't understand the current political meta. Never claimed I was a real expert on American politics like so many here.

Just my own thoughts as I said I was just thinking possible outcomes.

Sometimes I question the waste of time I spend here on this forum. To me we are all like dogs barking in the backyard for the sake of barking.

We take ourselves way too seriously that we are made of wise lifetime experiences that have shaped us to be some type of authority.

But even though we all have different perspectives I still have a warm spot for the DP group photo many of us participated in last summer.

View attachment 67274338
Click to expand...

Oh... it’s a massive waste of time... that’s 100% certain.
 
Blue Donkey said:
This is not an accurate statement. Pete Buttigieg got delegates in Iowa and New Hampshire.He also was a close second by the popular vote count in both states. Remember this is not a winner-take-all like the Republican primaries and caucuses.
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I wasn't speaking about Iowa and New Hampshire. My comments were directed to the Nevada Caucus. Since that post he has been awarded 2 delegates in NV with 96% of the vote tallied.
 
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