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If Trump gets (as some polls say he does) over 30% of the Black vote, is he president again?

If Trump gets (as some polls say he does) over 30% of the Black vote, is he president again?

  • no

    Votes: 1 3.8%

  • probably

    Votes: 1 3.8%

  • yes

    Votes: 12 46.2%

  • he loses suburban women

    Votes: 1 3.8%

  • slam dunk.. Dems will throw another tantrum

    Votes: 4 15.4%

  • other

    Votes: 7 26.9%
  • Total voters
    26
  • Poll closed .
Moderate Right said:
Who's losing? All of the oddsmakers and world leaders are expecting Trump to win re-election. Methinks you forgot the electoral college decides who is president, not the popular vote. Seems like you would have learned that from 2016.
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The polls in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and even Arizona have consistently shown Trump down to most of the democratic opponents, including Sanders.

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest 2020 General Election Polls
 
upsideguy said:
As rule, blacks have a lower voter turnout, so why register? Then of course, there is this little matter of the Republicans suppressing the black vote by continually purging voter roles and making if otherwise difficult for blacks to register (see also voter ID)

The five ways Republicans will crack down on voting rights in 2020 | Carol Anderson | US news | The Guardian
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Saying only "5%" are eligible is a specific statement far different than not voting or not being registered. People can register/reregister.
 
Moderate Right said:
If Trump gets 10% of the black vote he wins. By the way, new polls just out (no, not Fox News or Rasmussen) show that 63% of Americans expect Trump to be re-elected.
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If Trump gets 10% of the black vote he wins
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Too vague


It doesn't matter if more Blacks vote in a state such as Mississippi


Its a state race


show that 63% of Americans expect Trump to be re-elected.
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I expect him to be re -elected

What comes after he's gone?
 
Luther said:
Too vague


It doesn't matter if more Blacks vote in a state such as Mississippi


Its a state race




I expect him to be re -elected

What comes after he's gone?
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What on Earth are you babbling about? First you deny that if Trump gets 10% of the black vote that he will win and then you turn right around and say you expect him to get re-elected. What do you think is going to happen in 2024?
 
Moderate Right said:
What on Earth are you babbling about? First you deny that if Trump gets 10% of the black vote that he will win and then you turn right around and say you expect him to get re-elected. What do you think is going to happen in 2024?
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It will not be because of the Black vote
 
Moderate Right said:
What on Earth are you babbling about? First you deny that if Trump gets 10% of the black vote that he will win and then you turn right around and say you expect him to get re-elected. What do you think is going to happen in 2024?
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What do you think is going to happen in 2024?
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I expect a Democrat to win

Remember,Trump was never a conservative
 
OTHER


There is NO way that President Trump will get 30% of that ethnicity's vote.

The vast majority of them believe (rightly or wrongly) that the Democratic Party is a better friend than the Republican Party.

The Democrats are obsessed with ethnic matters; The Republicans, not so much.
 
TheParser said:
OTHER


There is NO way that President Trump will get 30% of that ethnicity's vote.

The vast majority of them believe (rightly or wrongly) that the Democratic Party is a better friend than the Republican Party.

The Democrats are obsessed with ethnic matters; The Republicans, not so much.
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Then there is me who just sees the demographics and graphs and such
 
narrowroad said:
If Trump gets (as some polls say he does) over 30% of the Black vote, is he president again?

Was it Rasumussen? (and/or some other polls) have Trump getting African American vote by over 20%, some even say 34% (source: Fox News)

:)
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It might depend on how successfully his party suppresses the Black vote.
 
Trump got 8% of the black vote last time and now a poster who likes right leaning polls starts a thread about 30%.

You can't make this stuff up.
 
Moderate Right said:
The oddsmakers who are in charge of billions and billions of dollars in betting make Trump the huge favorite.
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1) there are not "billions and billions" of dollars involved in political betting. Its an order of magnitude below that.
2) Oddsmakers quickly cede to the market. Those are not "odds marker odds, but market odds.
3) its an imperfect market, based upon people's impressions, not on anything else
4) the smart money bets late ... so, its not yet reflected in the numbers (we are only reading the not-so-smart money)

Its an interesting argument, except that it is not an accurate measurement of much. If it were, it would be cited in political discussion as something of significance. Its not.

Political polls are actually a scientific (math and behavioral science) approach to the issue at hand. Again, the lion's share current polling has Trump behind in most key states to most Democratic opponents.
 
I don't know about 30%, but I wouldn't be surprised if he got a decent-sized bump over the last election. In general, people are more satisfied now with race relations than they were under Obama. Same is true of the economy in general, with income disparity, and with the position of blacks and other racial minorities in the nation.

Overall satisfaction with the direction of the country is at its highest point in something like 15 years - still lots of ground to make up, but at least we're no longer headed in the wrong direction.
 
Taylor said:
I don't know about 30%, but I wouldn't be surprised if he got a decent-sized bump over the last election. In general, people are more satisfied now with race relations than they were under Obama. Same is true of the economy in general, with income disparity, and with the position of blacks and other racial minorities in the nation.

Overall satisfaction with the direction of the country is at its highest point in something like 15 years - still lots of ground to make up, but at least we're no longer headed in the wrong direction.
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What? Are you kidding? You need to provide a cite for that statement. I believe your impressions here are not in line with reality. Hate crimes are at a 16-year high.

Hate-Crime Violence Hits 16-Year High, F.B.I. Reports - The New York Times
How Americans see the state of race relations | Pew Research Center

If you will note within this following Gallup poll, it is clearly the white man's impression that race relations are better under Trump; but clearly not the black man's, which is the discussion. If you will note that the percentage of blacks believing race relations were good or somewhat good grew from 55% in the last year of Bush to 66% in the last year of Obama, then PLUMMETED to 40% in the first year of Trump. That is not they type of stat that suggests there is much black support for Trump.

Race Relations | Gallup Historical Trends

Now, if you read the white's impression of the same thing, you see the impression of race relations dropping under Obama and improving under Trump. That really suggests that the white man was pretty uncomfortable with a black president. Did I hit home with that conclusion? But, in talking about black support for Trump, which is the subject at hand, its the black man's impressions that matters, not yours.


Also, suggesting that we have had any relief in the income disparity issue is close to delusional. If I am wrong, please present contrary evidence.

A Guide to Statistics on Historical Trends in Income Inequality | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
 
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Dutch Uncle said:
Saying only "5%" are eligible is a specific statement far different than not voting or not being registered. People can register/reregister.
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Blacks are 13% of the population.A third are under 18 and can't vote.Then you have those in prison or felons and can't vote.Then you have those that are just too lazy to vote.So its probably about 5% that actually vote.
 
gulfman said:
Blacks are 13% of the population.A third are under 18 and can't vote.Then you have those in prison or felons and can't vote.Then you have those that are just too lazy to vote.So its probably about 5% that actually vote.
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Nice attack on blacks, but that wasn't the comment nor the question. "Can't vote" is a very specific phrase. Agreed on age but to be accurate, one has to consider the age groups of all demographics. Age is the #1 reason why it will be Hispanics who outnumber African-Americans this Election...and for years to come.
 
narrowroad said:
If Trump gets (as some polls say he does) over 30% of the Black vote, is he president again?

Was it Rasumussen? (and/or some other polls) have Trump getting African American vote by over 20%, some even say 34% (source: Fox News)

:)
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I doubt it happens but that would garauntee a landslide victory for him.
 
If is a huge word especially when it's combined with trump getting thirty percent of the black vote.

I'll be amazed if he gets ten percent. He's also going to lose the younger voters, women and a lot of college educated folks this time around. Sounds like a losing proposition to me.
 
narrowroad said:
If Trump gets (as some polls say he does) over 30% of the Black vote, is he president again?

Was it Rasumussen? (and/or some other polls) have Trump getting African American vote by over 20%, some even say 34% (source: Fox News)

:)
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The answer is yes.

I think the numbers will be even higher. Blacks have finally realized that the Democrats only pander to them. They realize they have been voting Democrat for 50 years and are no better off. Also, a big thanks goes to the lovely Candace Owens for opening their eyes.
 
narrowroad said:
If Trump gets (as some polls say he does) over 30% of the Black vote, is he president again?

Was it Rasumussen? (and/or some other polls) have Trump getting African American vote by over 20%, some even say 34% (source: Fox News)

:)
Click to expand...

Trump is surging among all brown skinned demographics because people are doing better with Trump in the White House.

ALL people.

Trump will win in a landslide.

If the shift in demographic support among the brown skinned voters is in the +20% range, he'll carry 50 states.

Also the down ticket offices will shift to pro-Trump Candidates.

The House, the Senate and the White House will all be GOP. Hopefully, the old, stodgy, stuck in the mud, Neo-con GOP will dissolve and the new, populist, jobs friendly, pragmatic Trump GOP will prevail.

There will be two more SCOTUS Justices appointed by Trump and the SCOTUS will be Constitutionalist for the next 30 years. The additional 150 Federal Court Judges appointed in his second term will be nice, too.

With Trump, ALL Americans just keep winning!

New polls show black support for Trump surging | Newsday
 
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