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Super Tuesday: Who Wins

Super Tuesday: Who wins?

  • Bernie

    Votes: 36 58.1%

  • Biden

    Votes: 11 17.7%

  • Buttigieg

    Votes: 1 1.6%

  • Bloomburg

    Votes: 2 3.2%

  • Warren

    Votes: 1 1.6%

  • Other Democrat

    Votes: 1 1.6%

  • Fluffy pink Bunny

    Votes: 10 16.1%
  • Total voters
    62
  • Poll closed .
Unless Bernie Sanders gets 50% of all delegates, he lost.
 
Jay59 said:
Bloomberg needed to shine in the debate. That didn't happen.
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He knew attacks were going to come at him and lied about himself anyway.

Do you prefer a purple unicorn or a polka-dot pony?
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I only like polls without nonsensical choices. You know, polls with only the actual candidates and "other" being choices, no fictional things added.
 
Your Star said:
Bernie will come out of super Tuesday as the presumptive nominee. He will win the vast majority of states.
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You could be right - but I can see a scenario where Sanders does get the most delegates but it is NOT winning a a majority of states. If he wins big in California that would be possible.

I am hoping for a brokered convention and on the ninth ballot they pick Adam Schiff. He could kick Trumps ass and make him look like a ignorant idiot. Those debates would make the one last night look like a Sunday school picnic.
 
Blue Donkey said:
He knew attacks were going to come at him and lied about himself anyway.
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Deer in the headlights. Really bad. On top of that, it was by far the most watched debate so far.

I only like polls without nonsensical choices. You know, polls with only the actual candidates and "other" being choices, no fictional things added.
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Nonsense options are a way of saying none of the above without making a point of it. As a trained statistician, I can say that poll construction is tricky, particularly if you want unbiased results.Of course, most polls want to direct the result, but that is usually obvious. In any event, nonsense answers serve a real function.
 
haymarket said:
You could be right - but I can see a scenario where Sanders does get the most delegates but it is NOT winning a a majority of states. If he wins big in California that would be possible.

I am hoping for a brokered convention and on the ninth ballot they pick Adam Schiff. He could kick Trumps ass and make him look like a ignorant idiot. Those debates would make the one last night look like a Sunday school picnic.
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Ha Ha, Love it!
 
Jay59 said:
Deer in the headlights. Really bad. On top of that, it was by far the most watched debate so far.
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He did not even make direct eye contact with the moderators, constnatly looking to his right when they were to his left.

The AP and CNN fact checkers agreed with Joe Biden on Mike Bloomberg's stop and frisk policy. Bloomberg's weak attempt to defend it was filled with lies and misleading statements. And I LOVED how Elizabeth Warren attacked him for both that and the part about his female employees. If Bloomberg is still popular next week, his supporters were not listening.

Nonsense options are a way of saying none of the above without making a point of it. As a trained statistician, I can say that poll construction is tricky, particularly if you want unbiased results.Of course, most polls want to direct the result, but that is usually obvious. In any event, nonsense answers serve a real function.
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The poll creator can just write "none of the above" in that case. What nosense choices do is make me think someone is just joking and not really serious about accuracy. In case you have not noticed, I am extremely literal in my thinking, reading, and writing.
 
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Jay59 said:
Sanders won the debate hands down, because his opponents did not make a move on him and two cratered. Almost half the delegates will be decided in the next twelve days. In two weeks it may all be over but the clean up.
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On Super Tuesday there'll be 15 primaries:

Sanders is favored to win 10 or more according to prop bet from 5dimes:

Includes AL, AR, CA, CO, ME, MA, MN, NC, OK, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA & Democrats Abroad primaries
Sat 2/22 911 Sanders S.Tuesday primaries won ov 9½ -135
8:00PM 912 Sanders S.Tuesday primaries won un 9½ -105
 
CA, CO, VT, and MA are gimme states for Sanders.

The question is how well he does outside of those states. Does he edge out a bunch of 30% wins in places he otherwise wouldn't be competitive, or does the center-left wing consolidate towards one or two candidates by then?
 
MovingPictures said:
CA, CO, VT, and MA are gimme states for Sanders.

The question is how well he does outside of those states. Does he edge out a bunch of 30% wins in places he otherwise wouldn't be competitive, or does the center-left wing consolidate towards one or two candidates by then?
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If he wins TX can we have a discussion about the Sanders message appealing to people outside of progressive base?
 
Winston said:
If he wins TX can we have a discussion about the Sanders message appealing to people outside of progressive base?
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It depends on what the demos are. It's great that he's bringing a small uptick to youth turnout, but what about college educated whites, Boomers (sorry, they vote more), and AA's? If we see big improvements there, then we do have to agree his ceiling is getting higher.

None of the candidates have appeal across the board just yet. The closest two are Sander, who struggles with Boomers, and Buttigieg, who struggles with AA's.

We need to see how NV and SC unfold because that will set the bets for Super Tuesday.
 
MovingPictures said:
It depends on what the demos are. It's great that he's bringing a small uptick to youth turnout, but what about college educated whites, Boomers (sorry, they vote more), and AA's? If we see big improvements there, then we do have to agree his ceiling is getting higher.

None of the candidates have appeal across the board just yet. The closest two are Sander, who struggles with Boomers, and Buttigieg, who struggles with AA's.

We need to see how NV and SC unfold because that will set the bets for Super Tuesday.
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Who are Boomers going for? Gen X seem to be going moderate too imo.
 
Winston said:
Who are Boomers going for? Gen X seem to be going moderate too imo.
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Boomers have stayed with Biden, but many are giving Buttigieg a look. Latino's are starting to lean towards Sanders, while the AA vote is 45% Biden, and then divided after that.

These polls are all over the place because the race is so fluid, so don't pay an extreme amount of attention to them.
 
MovingPictures said:
Boomers have stayed with Biden, but many are giving Buttigieg a look. Latino's are starting to lean towards Sanders, while the AA vote is 45% Biden, and then divided after that.

These polls are all over the place because the race is so fluid, so don't pay an extreme amount of attention to them.
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I don't know if Biden can hang on for much longer tbh. He needs a win badly.
 
Winston said:
I don't know if Biden can hang on for much longer tbh. He needs a win badly.
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I wrote him off after NH, but with the myth of Bloomberg imploding on stage, he could recover some ground. No worse than 3rd in NV and then SC is a must win, or he'll be getting some calls.

After Super Tuesday (if not before) anybody that hasn't gotten multiple wins on the scoreboard is going to have to get out. Klobuchar, Steyer, and Warren are very likely, and if Bloomberg gets no ROI via any state wins, he'll want to stop burning money, too.
 
MovingPictures said:
I wrote him off after NH, but with the myth of Bloomberg imploding on stage, he could recover some ground. No worse than 3rd in NV and then SC is a must win, or he'll be getting some calls.

After Super Tuesday (if not before) anybody that hasn't gotten multiple wins on the scoreboard is going to have to get out. Klobuchar, Steyer, and Warren are very likely, and if Bloomberg gets no ROI via any state wins, he'll want to stop burning money, too.
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Biden needs at least a strong showing in NV, if he places miserable again, he loses his already vulnerable position in SC, imo.

If I was Bernie's team I would be capitalizing on that in SC. Working the "Is he even electable?" angle.

I think many stay in zombie campaign mode much like the Kasich and Cruz campaigns. Also these primaries are all proportional too, so I haven't given up my pet conspiracy that they may be planning on pooling all the moderates delegates together at the convention ~ if they can prevent Bernie from achieving 50%+1, and they will sell it to the public by saying "more people voted for a moderate."

^will be devastating if they do this and all but assure a Trump reelection. I will probably still vote Dem no matter what, (I hate McConnell and Trump that much.)
 
Winston said:
Biden needs at least a strong showing in NV, if he places miserable again, he loses his already vulnerable position in SC, imo.

If I was Bernie's team I would be capitalizing on that in SC. Working the "Is he even electable?" angle.

I think many stay in zombie campaign mode much like the Kasich and Cruz campaigns. Also these primaries are all proportional too, so I haven't given up my pet conspiracy that they may be planning on pooling all the moderates delegates together at the convention ~ if they can prevent Bernie from achieving 50%+1, and they will sell it to the public by saying "more people voted for a moderate."

^will be devastating if they do this and all but assure a Trump reelection. I will probably still vote Dem no matter what, (I hate McConnell and Trump that much.)
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I do agree with you a little bit on McConnell, but Amy McGrath or whatever her last name would be just another rubber stamp for open borders.
 
Winston said:
Biden needs at least a strong showing in NV, if he places miserable again, he loses his already vulnerable position in SC, imo.

If I was Bernie's team I would be capitalizing on that in SC. Working the "Is he even electable?" angle.

I think many stay in zombie campaign mode much like the Kasich and Cruz campaigns. Also these primaries are all proportional too, so I haven't given up my pet conspiracy that they may be planning on pooling all the moderates delegates together at the convention ~ if they can prevent Bernie from achieving 50%+1, and they will sell it to the public by saying "more people voted for a moderate."

^will be devastating if they do this and all but assure a Trump reelection. I will probably still vote Dem no matter what, (I hate McConnell and Trump that much.)
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It all depends on how things unfold.

Campaigns like Klobuchar and Buttigieg can't keep going without money. If the money dries out, so does their campaign. They'll have no choice. Now, Steyer and Bloomberg might try to 'keep the dream' alive, but they'll never get more than a handful of delegates that they'll just have to give up in the end; it's also nice to see them burn their money.

If Sanders wins NV and somehow wins SC and dominates Super Tuesday, then it's all his. There will be no taking it from him, even on a second vote. But if he hits a ceiling of 35% (ish) and another moderate gets a comparable level of delegates, and then some back markers choose to pool their delegates to break mostly for the leading moderate in order for a majority to be obtained, then that's a legitimate resolution.
 
MovingPictures said:
It all depends on how things unfold.

Campaigns like Klobuchar and Buttigieg can't keep going without money. If the money dries out, so does their campaign. They'll have no choice. Now, Steyer and Bloomberg might try to 'keep the dream' alive, but they'll never get more than a handful of delegates that they'll just have to give up in the end; it's also nice to see them burn their money.

If Sanders wins NV and somehow wins SC and dominates Super Tuesday, then it's all his. There will be no taking it from him, even on a second vote. But if he hits a ceiling of 35% (ish) and another moderate gets a comparable level of delegates, and then some back markers choose to pool their delegates to break mostly for the leading moderate in order for a majority to be obtained, then that's a legitimate resolution.
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I disagree, the one with the most votes should win the nomination. I'll still vote for the Dem nominee because we are living in extraordinary times. But, if we weren't facing McConnell inches away from fulfilling his lifelong goal, I would honestly tell the Dems to piss off if they did that. But, we're going far into "What if.." territory right now.

I am happy with the way the race is looking, because I'm a Bernie supporter but, I'll be happy to help whoever wins the nomination, so long as it's done fairly.
 
Winston said:
I disagree, the one with the most votes should win the nomination. I'll still vote for the Dem nominee because we are living in extraordinary times. But, if we weren't facing McConnell inches away from fulfilling his lifelong goal, I would honestly tell the Dems to piss off if they did that. But, we're going far into "What if.." territory right now.

I am happy with the way the race is looking, because I'm a Bernie supporter but, I'll be happy to help whoever wins the nomination, so long as it's done fairly.
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What "should" be the case and what are the actual rules everyone agreed are not always the same. The EC is ****ed-up and favors Republicans, but it's there so we don't have someone like Bloomberg winning just four or five highly populated states and stealing the nomination.

Personally, ranked voting is something that would solve many political problems for both parties, and the people.
 
slick said:
On Super Tuesday there'll be 15 primaries:

Sanders is favored to win 10 or more according to prop bet from 5dimes:

Includes AL, AR, CA, CO, ME, MA, MN, NC, OK, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA & Democrats Abroad primaries
Sat 2/22 911 Sanders S.Tuesday primaries won ov 9½ -135
8:00PM 912 Sanders S.Tuesday primaries won un 9½ -105
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And that's now. If he cleans up in Nevada--expected--Sanders gets a week of free publicity before South Carolina. If he takes down the Biden stronghold, then he gets a weekend bump before the big day. He's got the ball rolling. All he needs to do is keep up.
 
MovingPictures said:
What "should" be the case and what are the actual rules everyone agreed are not always the same. The EC is ****ed-up and favors Republicans, but it's there so we don't have someone like Bloomberg winning just four or five highly populated states and stealing the nomination.

Personally, ranked voting is something that would solve many political problems for both parties, and the people.
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But, Trump told me the EC favors Democrats.

:lol:
 
If Bernie wins SC and NV, he'll probably sweep Super Tuesday and win just about every state from now to the convention.

Otherwise, I have no idea what will happen.
 
MovingPictures said:
What "should" be the case and what are the actual rules everyone agreed are not always the same. The EC is ****ed-up and favors Republicans, but it's there so we don't have someone like Bloomberg winning just four or five highly populated states and stealing the nomination.

Personally, ranked voting is something that would solve many political problems for both parties, and the people.
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Agreed. Ranked voting would be a good idea.
 
MovingPictures said:
What "should" be the case and what are the actual rules everyone agreed are not always the same. The EC is ****ed-up and favors Republicans, but it's there so we don't have someone like Bloomberg winning just four or five highly populated states and stealing the nomination.

Personally, ranked voting is something that would solve many political problems for both parties, and the people.
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Well so long as its just something that exists in the primaries. Because I don't think the parties would go for something like IRV in the general election as it may encourage third party voting.
 
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