Based on what? How is Biden stronger than Bernie versus Trump?
I said, Biden vs. Trump. Don't you think that Biden is less bad than Trump? This much is obvious.
How is Biden stronger than Bernie versus Trump: 30 polls, national and state, which you can find over the 3 pages of all electoral polls on Real Clear Politics, show Biden beating Trump by higher margins than Bernie, or Biden beating Trump while Bernie loses, or both Biden and Bernie losing to Trump but Biden losing by a smaller margin. Sure, there are a few showing Bernie ahead, but the vast majority show Biden with better chances. That's one.
Two, Bernie scares moderates.
Three, Bernie scares seniors.
Four, Bernie has very strong liabilities in his past that have never been exploited by any campaigns. He had the luxury of running in 2016 without being attacked, because Hillary didn't want to attack him too harshly and risk losing his supporters in the general election, and Trump was delighted to prop him up since he was hurting the more viable adversary.
So, all Bernie numbers in polls represent a state in which NONE of his severe liabilities have been exploited yet in adversarial campaign ads. I don't think that Bernie's numbers will hold if he is the nominee, once the general elections come up. I've quoted elsewhere some of his liabilities that will be exploited:
- saying that women fantasize of being simultaneously raped by three men when they make love to their men (as per his essay on the alternative newspaper Vermont Freeman in February of 1972)
- saying that women possess the
qualities of dependency, subservience, and masochism (same source above).
- saying that it's understandable that porn magazines sell when they mention stories about 12-year-old girls being raped by 14 men (no kidding, he said so in an interview with NPR, wow!)
- having voted against a bill that wanted to ensure harsher sentencing guidelines for pedophiles
- indicating that women can't win a presidential race
- proposing that convicted felons serving their sentences (including terrorists like the Boston Marathon Bomber, pedophiles, rapists) should have the right to vote
- advocating for free non-emergency healthcare for illegal aliens
- having supported Sandinists who marched singing "Death to the Yankees"
- his wife having been accused of embezzlement.
Mark my words, I *guarantee* that all of the above will be in attack ads sponsored by right-wing PACs, together with lots of scare tactics for seniors indicating that Medicare for All will overwhelm Medicare and result in their benefits under Medicare being diluted and curtailed, with shortage of services and waiting lists. Also, they will insist on taxes going up for the middle class to pay for all the freebies that Bernie proposes.
Expect the airwaves to be bombarded with ads highlighting all 11 liabilities above; social media will also have racist attacks against him based on his Jewish faith
Meanwhile Trump will be touting his economy, full employment, his being tough on Iran, and will highlight that Bernie has a track record of being ineffective as a senator.
When this is all said and done, Bernie's numbers will drop (a lot of women/mothers will be disgusted with the above, a lot of seniors will be scared, a lot of middle class people will fear tax hikes, etc) and Trump's numbers will rise.
Biden has liabilities too but not as serious, and he appeals more to minorities and women. If Obama jumps into the campaign and supports him as his former veep who will redo parts of the Obama legacy that Trump destroyed, his numbers will probably go up. Biden will also use against Trump the fact that Trump is so scared of him that he engaged in impeachable offenses, trying to get Biden down.
Against Trump, I'd expect Sanders numbers to go down in the general election campaign if he is the nominee, and Biden's numbers to go up if he is the nominee instead.
I don't have a crystal ball, but the above is my best guess.
