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Who Will Third Party Votes Hurt The Most In 2020 POTUS Election?

Which 2020 Candidate will suffer the most from third-party votes

  • the candidate that loses will have suffered the most

    Votes: 2 6.5%

  • Trump

    Votes: 2 6.5%

  • Whoever the D's nominate

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • neither - please explain

    Votes: 3 9.7%

  • both - please explain

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Obviously, the US voters will suffer the most

    Votes: 1 3.2%

  • too early to tell just yet

    Votes: 7 22.6%
  • Total voters
    31
Dragonfly

Dragonfly

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Every election at least one, if not multiple alternative/third party candidates enter the contest for POTUS.

In my 56 years of life, Ross Perot is the ONLY alternative candidate to ever appear to have even the slightest chance of winning.

That being said, I think it's carved deeply in stone, surefire lock that the next POTUS will either be from the D or R side of the coin.

Let's not get bogged down in the why, or how much that sucks, or anything like that.

It simply is what it is.
It's a fact that the Next POTUS will be an R or a D. Period.


So based on that, those who insist on voting for anything BUT an R or D will be siphoning votes away from either an R or a D.

The question I'm wondering is, IYHO which R or D candidate will suffer the most from those non-votes?
 
The Dems are normally hurt more by 3rd party.
 
Dragonfly said:
Why do you think that?

When Obama won both his elections wouldn't you say the third party votes hurt the R's more?
Click to expand...

If you look at the final vote tally, Obama beat McCain by almost 10 million votes. All other candidates garnered 1,950,460.

Third Party votes, even if they ALL went to McCain, would have still left him 8 million behind Obama in 2008.

2008 United States presidential election - Wikipedia
 
The challenger (non-incumbent regardless of party) is hurt most by a third party vote since our political process heavily favors the incumbent.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
The challenger (non-incumbent regardless of party) is hurt most by a third party vote since our political process heavily favors the incumbent.
Click to expand...



The strongest 3rd party candidate we've had in my memory was Ross Perot who got 19% of the popular vote in the 1992 election that was won by challenger Bill Clinton over incumbent George H. W. Bush. I'm saying if you're going to use an example, use the ones with the strongest 3rd party candidate. The next strongest was George Wallace, who got 13.5% of the pop vote in 1968 when challenger Nixon won against the incumbent party represented by Humbert H. Humphrey, the incumbent VP.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
The challenger (non-incumbent regardless of party) is hurt most by a third party vote since our political process heavily favors the incumbent.
Click to expand...

I have to believe this is true.

Especially in this coming election in 2020.

IMHO, third party votes will hurt whoever the D's nominate, and help Trump.
 
bluesmoke said:
The strongest 3rd party candidate we've had in my memory was Ross Perot who got 19% of the popular vote in the 1992 election that was won by challenger Bill Clinton over incumbent George H. W. Bush. I'm saying if you're going to use an example, use the ones with the strongest 3rd party candidate. The next strongest was George Wallace, who got 13.5% of the pop vote in 1968 when challenger Nixon won against the incumbent party represented by Humbert H. Humphrey, the incumbent VP.
Click to expand...

Excellent points, but in the last 20 years have we had a third party candidate that's been even remotely viable as a choice for POTUS?
 
What helped Ross Perot was being invited to debate against George Bush and Bill Clinton. I have never seen any other presidential debates with more than two candidates.
 
Dragonfly said:
Every election at least one, if not multiple alternative/third party candidates enter the contest for POTUS.

In my 56 years of life, Ross Perot is the ONLY alternative candidate to ever appear to have even the slightest chance of winning.

That being said, I think it's carved deeply in stone, surefire lock that the next POTUS will either be from the D or R side of the coin.

Let's not get bogged down in the why, or how much that sucks, or anything like that.

It simply is what it is.
It's a fact that the Next POTUS will be an R or a D. Period.


So based on that, those who insist on voting for anything BUT an R or D will be siphoning votes away from either an R or a D.

The question I'm wondering is, IYHO which R or D candidate will suffer the most from those non-votes?
Click to expand...

In reality, Trump, a populist was pretty much a third party candidate. While he ran on the tenets of the republican party platform, he was actually running against the establishment candidates in both parties. He was smart enough to do so from within the two party system. Ross Perot was not. In 2020, I expect that the democrat nominee will be most hurt by third party candidates. There is a massive walkaway movement from the democrat party in the lead up to the 2020 race. There are an enormous number of moderate democrats who will not have the stomach to vote democrat in 2020. Some of those votes will stay home, some will go to Trump, and many will go to a 3rd party librul candidate.
 
Blue Donkey said:
What helped Ross Perot was being invited to debate against George Bush and Bill Clinton. I have never seen any other presidential debates with more than two candidates.
Click to expand...

I remember that debate when I was young. I thought Ross Perot was really funny-looking and sounding.
 
I voted for him. His predictions have certainly proved true.

That giant sucking sound!
 
Captain Adverse said:
If you look at the final vote tally, Obama beat McCain by almost 10 million votes. All other candidates garnered 1,950,460.

Third Party votes, even if they ALL went to McCain, would have still left him 8 million behind Obama in 2008.

2008 United States presidential election - Wikipedia
Click to expand...

True, and adding to the burden was that McCain was a poor candidate. His run was an honorarium like Bob Dole who was a real stiff as a candidate. ;)

Footnote: the Republicans didn’t have the stomach to go after the first black president and still lose.
 
Josie said:
I remember that debate when I was young. I thought Ross Perot was really funny-looking and sounding.
Click to expand...

How so?

In hindsight, I wonder why I watched that debate because my first election was in 1995.
 
Blue Donkey said:
How so?

In hindsight, I wonder why I watched that debate because my first election was in 1995.
Click to expand...

You don't remember his ears and how funny his voice was?
 
Dragonfly said:
I have to believe this is true.

Especially in this coming election in 2020.

IMHO, third party votes will hurt whoever the D's nominate, and help Trump.
Click to expand...

I don't know if that's entirely true.

Aside from the Perots and the Wallaces in past elections, the libertarians are usually the strongest 3rd party contenders. Even though they only get single digit percentages, they usually end up being favored more by disgruntled republicans.
 
rickc said:
I voted for him. His predictions have certainly proved true.

That giant sucking sound!
Click to expand...

i voted for him, too. it was the first election that i could vote in.
 
Dragonfly said:
Every election at least one, if not multiple alternative/third party candidates enter the contest for POTUS.

In my 56 years of life, Ross Perot is the ONLY alternative candidate to ever appear to have even the slightest chance of winning.

That being said, I think it's carved deeply in stone, surefire lock that the next POTUS will either be from the D or R side of the coin.

Let's not get bogged down in the why, or how much that sucks, or anything like that.

It simply is what it is.
It's a fact that the Next POTUS will be an R or a D. Period.


So based on that, those who insist on voting for anything BUT an R or D will be siphoning votes away from either an R or a D.

The question I'm wondering is, IYHO which R or D candidate will suffer the most from those non-votes?
Click to expand...

I voted to early to tell.

For example if biden gets the nomination and either Warren or Sanders bolts to a third party, Trump wins.

On the other hand if a strong never-trumper like a Romney decides to bolt then any democrat wins IMHO.
 
Depends which 3rd party. I think a strong Libertarian candidate would hurt Trump, while a Green party candidate would hurt the Democrat.

I'm just hoping they have a decent Libertarian this time so I can have a choice (if Bernie is nominated that is).
 
washunut said:
On the other hand if a strong never-trumper like a Romney decides to bolt then any democrat wins IMHO.
Click to expand...

That would be interesting, but I don't see it happening.

Plus there's no "Tea Party" anymore to disrupt the R ticket.
 
washunut said:
For example if biden gets the nomination and either Warren or Sanders bolts to a third party, Trump wins.
Click to expand...

Warren & Sanders know that's what would happen.

I don't think they'd defect and actually HELP Trump get a second term.
 
Indie guy said:
I don't know if that's entirely true.

Aside from the Perots and the Wallaces in past elections, the libertarians are usually the strongest 3rd party contenders. Even though they only get single digit percentages, they usually end up being favored more by disgruntled republicans.
Click to expand...

I can see that, but there's usually a green party, an independent party, and a few others too.

All combined they don't add up to much though.

I still think most who would vote Libertarian wouldn't vote Trump if there's only two choices.
Otherwise they'd just vote Trump.

A third party candidate is a 100% guaranteed loser. Regardless of how "strong" they are.
 
Trump's base is almost completely hardened at this point. The Democratic nominee will need to do well with Independents in order to win in key states. The only people who can realistically push themselves into the race at this point will be a Bloomberg or somebody like that. They are more likely to hurt the Democratic nominee than Trump.
 
Dragonfly said:
You think Trump will be hurt most by third party votes?
Click to expand...

How many independents and third party voters want Trump to continue corrupting America? I am sure there will be a lot of "anybody but Trump" voters who don't like any of the Democrats either.

But more accurately, I think people will vote for Biden if he wins the nomination because he is relatively moderate.
 
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