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Are the three polls indicating Trump gaining support among...

Do you believe the three polls indicating Trump gaining support among Blacks is largely accurate?

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zimmer

zimmer

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Do you believe the three polls indicating Trump gaining support among Blacks is largely accurate?

The three polls have shown support at 30 to 35%.

Yes.

No.
 
It's all Russian propaganda! Trump has obviously conspired with Putin to influence polls which help him politically. This really should be in the Articles of Impeachment.
 
zimmer said:
Do you believe the three polls indicating Trump gaining support among Blacks is largely accurate?

The three polls have shown support at 30 to 35%.

Yes.

No.
Click to expand...
Can you reference the polls?
 
And it most certainly has been Ru$$ian propaganda to aid the GOP SINCE REDMAP 2010, targeting CDs, HDs, SDs, and swing states, especially in the Senate in 2014, and with McConnell covering up Ru$$ian interference in September of 2016.
 
As a black person I'd have to vote yes on the poll. As a white person I'd also have to vote yes strange as that may seem.
 
Alright, I found this article citing Rasmussen, Emerson, and Marist:

(The Epoch Times) Polls Showing Third of Blacks Support Trump May Herald Huge Political Upheavals Ahead

My understanding is that Rasmussen is not a quality poll, while I believe Marist is very much a high quality poll. I have no prior opinion of Emerson, besides being aware they do polling. So, I referred to the 538 quality rankings (which generally gel with my understanding and experience):

(538.com) FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

538 rates Rasmussen 'C+', Marist 'A', and Emerson 'A-'. So two of the polls seem to be high quality, and all three seem to agree. Based upon the above, I'm tempted to believe the polls may be accurate. We need to see what a few more quality polls say in the coming days.
 
 
Chomsky said:
Alright, I found this article citing Rasmussen, Emerson, and Marist:

(The Epoch Times) Polls Showing Third of Blacks Support Trump May Herald Huge Political Upheavals Ahead

My understanding is that Rasmussen is not a quality poll, while I believe Marist is very much a high quality poll. I have no prior opinion of Emerson, besides being aware they do polling. So, I referred to the 538 quality rankings (which generally gel with my understanding and experience):

(538.com) FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

538 rates Rasmussen 'C+', Marist 'A', and Emerson 'A-'. So two of the polls seem to be high quality, and all three seem to agree. Based upon the above, I'm tempted to believe the polls may be accurate. We need to see what a few more quality polls say in the coming days.
Click to expand...

Rasmussen beat most everyone in the last election... if not everyone for accuracy.

538 was... a joke... I howled on election night as I saw 538 switch the odds of Trump winning from almost single digits... to Hillary guaranteed of losing.
 
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zimmer said:
Do you believe the three polls indicating Trump gaining support among Blacks is largely accurate?

The three polls have shown support at 30 to 35%.

Yes.

No.
Click to expand...

I vote yes.

It's not about President Trump gaining support. It's about the Democrats losing support.
 
Chomsky said:
Thank you Zimmer. I found them myself, and posted my comments in post #6 above. And yes - I'm tempted to believe the polls might be accurate in general terms, but I'd want to see confirmation by other quality polls in the coming days.
Click to expand...

No other pollster tracked by RealClearPolitics came as close to the final results.


"The media created a false narrative about the 2016 presidential campaign, and most polling reinforced it," Rasmussen wrote on its website Thursday. "Our polling showed that issues, not the media-fed controversies, would ultimately decide the election."
Rasmussen calls itself most accurate pollster of 2016 | TheHill
Click to expand...

I understand why the Left dislikes Rasmussen, but they were the King of the Hill in terms of accuracy 2016.
 
 
Everyone, left or right, quotes polls when they are favorable to their pov!
 
zimmer said:
Rasmussen beat most everyone in the last election... if not everyone for accuracy.

538 was... a joke... I howled on election night as I saw 538 switch the odds of Trump winning from almost single digits... Hillary guaranteed losing.
Click to expand...
The bolded I don't deny. But being right once does not mean being right often. They generally aren't that accurate.

As to 538, they're a polling agregator - a very good one. Their aggregation showed 2016 within 1-1/2 points, which is very good. They also were one of a very few that gave Trump a reasonable chance of winning; I believe they had HRC at 71% probability going into election day.
 
You could make a case for some black voters staying home if they don't like the democrat candidate, but that's about it.

I don't see blacks switching to republicans anytime soon.
 
Rising Sun said:
It's really great to see the Far/Alt-Right supporting polls again after 8 years of denying them. Kudos!
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My bet is the polls are still giving numbers under what they should be.

You recall the polling in 2016? It was of by miles... and my guess is it still is.

When 90+% of the reporting is negative, it shows a bias... especially when you look at the economy and so many other positive results.

We’re going to find out in 11.25-months how skewed the polls have been. We know the reporting isn’t reporting, but DNC Propaganda.

A couple questions:

1) have you seen any anti-Semitic posts by those on the right here? If no, then you can drop the alt-right bull****.

2) Far right? what is that? What makes someone “far right”?

What part of YOUR Liberty are you willing to sacrifice, and for what?
 
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zimmer said:
Do you believe the three polls indicating Trump gaining support among Blacks is largely accurate?

The three polls have shown support at 30 to 35%.

Yes.

No.
Click to expand...

Given that it is three now, its unlikely to be an outlier at this point.
 
Probably not. At least to the extent that Rasmussen is showing of the three. The Marist poll mentioned along with these only has his support among non-white voters in the 33% area, rather than black voters. They are generally one of the least Republican racial groups so would likely be a lower approval percentage than the entire group of non-white voters. I can't even find the cross-tab in the Emerson poll, only the Rasmussen tweet (where they already misrepresented the Marist poll question).

Rasmussen's track record both near and long term is also heavily slated in the Republican's favor. As much as I'd like to buy some of their results, their history shows them overestimating Republican support, often heavily, in 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2018. They do have that one accurate poll in 2016, but that's really all they have to hang their hats on. Additionally, their polling showed 40% black approval of Trump right before the 2018 elections, which really doesn't square with how people voted.

Meanwhile of the polls whose crosstabs did include black voters, the most recent polls unanimously show results of an approval percentage between 7% and 13%.
 
tacomancer said:
Given that it is three now, its unlikely to be an outlier at this point.
Click to expand...

Politico, Quinnipiac, and the Economist have his approval among black voters at 11%, 10%, and 13% respectively. Crosstabs are wonky anyway. By design, they don't have a high enough sample to have a small margin for error.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016e-a474-d17e-a37e-fc7ff3b30000

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us11262019_uaov53.pdf/

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a10nw9wbas/econTabReport.pdf
 
zimmer said:
My bet is the polls are still giving numbers under what they should be.

You recall the polling in 2016? It was of by miles... and my guess is it still is.

When 90+% of the reporting is negative, it shows a bias... especially when you look at the economy and so many other positive results.

We’re going to find out in 11.25-months how skewed the polls have been. We know the reporting isn’t reporting, but DNC Propaganda.

A couple questions:

1) have you seen any anti-Semitic posts by those on the right here? If no, then you can drop the alt-right bull****.

2) Far right? what is that? What makes someone “far right”?

What part of YOUR Liberty are you willing to sacrifice, and for what?
Click to expand...

Polls weren't really that far off in 2016. (Just the margins in a few Upper Midwest states, although they didn't overestimate Clinton, they underestimated Trump with a bunch of undecideds). As someone who likes polling and statistics, I really wish this inaccurate recollection would die. Polling was also very good in 2018 and has a very strong showing over the entire decade.

That said, I would certainly grant that the people generally interpreting the polling, those in the media, definitely created a narrative that Hillary was easily and definitely going to win. I would just say they weren't really interpreting the data that well and were only focusing on the national polls.
 
zimmer said:
My bet is the polls are still giving numbers under what they should be.

You recall the polling in 2016? It was of by miles... and my guess is it still is.

When 90+% of the reporting is negative, it shows a bias... especially when you look at the economy and so many other positive results.

We’re going to find out in 11.25-months how skewed the polls have been. We know the reporting isn’t reporting, but DNC Propaganda.

A couple questions:

1) have you seen any anti-Semitic posts by those on the right here? If no, then you can drop the alt-right bull****.

2) Far right? what is that? What makes someone “far right”?

What part of YOUR Liberty are you willing to sacrifice, and for what?
Click to expand...

No, it wasn't and doesn't: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
For those who actually understand statistics and polls, the standard margin of error is 3%. Note that, while the polls often did give the edge to Hillary, there weren't as far off as you claimed.

For your further edification: Why 2016 election polls missed their mark | Pew Research Center


All the polls off? The ones I'm following show Trump winning in 2020. I even placed a bet on Trump: PredictIt


1) Yes. I've also seen them on television, blogs, etc so stop denying the Alt-Right doesn't have antisemitics: YouTube



2) Antisemitic assclowns is one defining characteristic. Screaming "White power" is another. Are you denying that Steve Bannon, Richard Spencer and Steven Miller are White Supremacists?
 
Anagram said:
Probably not. At least to the extent that Rasmussen is showing of the three. The Marist poll mentioned along with these only has his support among non-white voters in the 33% area, rather than black voters. They are generally one of the least Republican racial groups so would likely be a lower approval percentage than the entire group of non-white voters. I can't even find the cross-tab in the Emerson poll, only the Rasmussen tweet (where they already misrepresented the Marist poll question).

Rasmussen's track record both near and long term is also heavily slated in the Republican's favor. As much as I'd like to buy some of their results, their history shows them overestimating Republican support, often heavily, in 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2018. They do have that one accurate poll in 2016, but that's really all they have to hang their hats on. Additionally, their polling showed 40% black approval of Trump right before the 2018 elections, which really doesn't square with how people voted.

Meanwhile of the polls whose crosstabs did include black voters, the most recent polls unanimously show results of an approval percentage between 7% and 13%.
Click to expand...
The bolded is a good point. But regardless, Trump pulling 33% among minorities is something to notice I think.
 
swing_voter said:
You could make a case for some black voters staying home if they don't like the democrat candidate, but that's about it.

I don't see blacks switching to republicans anytime soon.
Click to expand...

The three polls have shown Trumps approval among blacks at 30 to 35%. The polls weren't about whether they intend to vote for
TRump or not. Look Trump is making inroads into the black community. McCain received 4% of the black vote in 2008, Romney 6%
in 2012 and Trump received 8% in 2016 but black men went for Trump at 13%.

There is no doubt Trump will up his percentage of black votes this time around but 30 to 35% no way. If Trump get 15% of the
black vote he'll win more than the 30 1/2 states he won in 2016. He won't get 30% but it's about 50/50 IMO that he'll get
over 12% & that will be enough. That's what the democrats fear the most,
 
I have been following this increase in support from minorities for Trump for some time. I am not a bit surprised to see multiple polls today coalescing that Trump's support among minorities exploding. And it happened while the lefties and their buddies in the MSM put such effort into painting him and his supporters as racists. Maybe the race card will finally be dead and buried in the very near future.
 
Rising Sun said:
For those who actually understand statistics and polls, the standard margin of error is 3%.
Click to expand...
No... Nobody who actually understands statistics and polls would make such a statement.
 
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