Will Trump last his first term?

post said:

My "team" is the world outside your bubble.

Click to expand...

Is that what it's called in your world?
For the rest of humanity, it's called planet earth.

I chose D: impeach and resign - this is only if it looks like the senate won't go his way and they give him an out like Nixon. B seems the next most likely: he survives impeachment but loses the election. They are all however to some degree possible, so let's wait and see.

The odds were against him winning in 2016 but he won. I once bet on a horse with 9-1 odds and got a hundred bucks. Being the outlier doesn't mean you have no shot at all.

Path B or D - 50/50 on each.

Cardinal said:

I disagree. I don’t think this has anything to do with the presentation but the timing of it. You basically have a three day window in which Republicans agree that the offense is bad. After that...poof...the offense becomes tolerable.

Click to expand...

Yeah, no.... I know what you mean about the three day attention span, however I think that there are enough members of the public and enough representatives who will take the time to research this thing about the column A stuff on the front burner and see it through: it;s going to go through anyway, so those of US that care will stick with it. The three day people get their news from cereal boxes and just don't matter anyway in my view; they'll never change.

MovingPictures said:

Many citizens in this country will sell out every value they say they have in exchange for a tax cut, and a social program they don't like getting gutted.

It is absurd for Democrats to try to appeal to those people.

Click to expand...

what are these values?

post said:

According to the single, Trump approved, major news media outlet,

....include 55 percent of Fox News poll respondents....

Your post is an unsupported rant. Impeachment is a political process, enshrined in our constitution. Grounds for impeachment can constitutionally consist of ethics issues, such as enlisting the assistance of a foreign leader to gain domestic political advantage, with or without a 'quid pro quo."

Poll: Clinton's approval rating up in wake of impeachment - December 20, 1998

Click to expand...

In your need to attack anything that may be even remotely favourable to President Trump, you've missed the point entirely. Yes, impeachment is an entirely political process and why smart politicians have used it sparingly over the centuries. Your founding fathers envisioned it for far more serious matters than sexual perversion and/or election disappointment remediation. You also fail to appreciate that the vast majority of Americans, as in most countries, don't involve themselves in opinion polls and to an even greater extent right leaning and conservative people don't participate in such. As a result, the polls had Hillary Clinton overwhelmingly being elected President in 2016 and had both Bush II and Obama being defeated in their reelection campaigns.

And gee, a poll that shows 43% of Americans believing President Trump is doing a good job seems almost miraculous considering American media, led by the likes of the now disgraced CNN, spend their entire air time promoting anti-Trump story lines and anti-Trump panel discussions, ad nauseum. Considering President Trump only received about 48-49% of the popular vote in 2016 and he was comfortably elected President, that's not such a great fall off and easily recouped once the pathetic Democrat nominee is determined and the comparison becomes one on one.

No one has any clue how the American people are going to react and vote in 2020, particularly this far out from the election. But what is clear to me, and perhaps many others, is that Americans hate having bloviating, self-important, political hacks and their media pimps delegitimizing their election results and wasting scads of money and time trying to overturn their choices. Will it result in President Trump being reelected - I think it might - but at the least it's going to help him more so than if the Democrats were actually trying to govern while in power.

I think Trump will resign IF he knows the Senate is close to impeaching him with Republican support. He will try to contort the situation so that it looks like he won.

Which brings us to my answer: the Senate will probably impeach him with Republican support. Make no mistake, Senate Republicans hate his guts and would like to get rid of him. It's just coming up with the 'out' to publicly vote in this direction.

No one wants to go to their grave with the epitaph, 'I blocked for Trump during his impeachment, even though he was clearly guilty, and even though he was a washed-up bum who was going to lose in 2020'.

RabidAlpaca said:

Lol, where have you been the last 3 years? Trump loyalists won't even admit the things Trump has said on live TV dozens of times. All the clips of him asking Ukraine to investigate Biden were doctored as part of a liberal conspiracy. There is no bottoming out for them and they will continue to sink and ignore all of his faults and law breaking completely regardless of the rock hard evidence presented.

Click to expand...

The President, whomever that is, is the commander in chief. He is head of the military, justice department and FBI. His job is to enforce the laws of the land both internationally and domestically. When Biden and his Son broke the law, it is the duty of the president to make sure justice is served. I am not sure why the Democrat do not want the president to do his job. What are they hiding or trying to cover up?

During the collusion delusion Trump went along with the investigation and provided transparency. He gave millions of documents and allowed his staff to be interrogated by patrician hacks. Why is Biden not being as transparent? If he was innocent he should allow justice to interrogate this staff. Everyone sees this, and it will come back to bite the Democrats in 2020.

Did Biden decide to run for president, as part of a coverup scam, so he could claim this as a defense? In other words if I was guilty of crimes, and the investigators were about to get me, could I simply run for president and claim patrician politics, so I can avoid their warrants? Barr was confirmed in February 2019 and said he would investigate the origins of the collusion delusion. Ukraine can be traced to the origins. Biden decided to run in April 2019, after the investigation went international.

Biden should have announced earlier to make this stick. Fake news can only carry the ball so far.

BrotherFease said:

Choose your path carefully. Keep in mind, it might not be your exact thoughts, but closest.

PATH A - Trump will survive the current partisan attacks against him, and will get re-elected in December of 2020.

PATH B - Trump will get impeached, but come up short in the Senate. But in the general election, he will lose to Biden/Sanders/Warren/whoever ends up winning the Democratic nomination.

PATH C - Trump will get impeached, but come up short in the Senate. But he will come out against running for re-election.

PATH D - Trump will get impeached, but will resign before the Senate votes.

PATH E - Trump will resign before the congress votes for impeachment.

PATH F - Other.

Click to expand...

December 2020? It's November 2020.

But anyhoo, I chose option B. It's the most likely IMO.

ocean515 said:

The context of his reference was to poorly educated, highly educated, etc..

Click to expand...

In that video he was talking about the people who voted for him. He emphasized on winning the 'poorly educated.' Now why would he do that if the poorly educated are radical liberals who would never vote for him? Your arguments are stupid and nothing more than trolling.

Will wile e ever catch the roadrunner?

Geoist said:

In that video he was talking about the people who voted for him. He emphasized on winning the 'poorly educated.' Now why would he do that if the poorly educated are radical liberals who would never vote for him? Your arguments are stupid and nothing more than trolling.

Click to expand...

Your ad hominem attacks will always destroy any reason to consider your opinions.

ocean515 said:

Your ad hominem attacks will always destroy any reason to consider your opinions.

Click to expand...

Pot meet kettle.

Geoist said:

Pot meet kettle.

Click to expand...

Lame. There has to be some truth for you claim to be true.

CanadaJohn said:

...

And gee, a poll that shows 43% of Americans believing President Trump is doing a good job seems almost miraculous considering American media, led by the likes of the now disgraced CNN, spend their entire air time promoting anti-Trump story lines and anti-Trump panel discussions, ad nauseum. Considering President Trump only received about 48-49% of the popular vote in 2016 and he was comfortably elected President, that's not such a great fall off and easily recouped once the pathetic Democrat nominee is determined and the comparison becomes one on one.

No one has any clue how the American people are going to react and vote in 2020, particularly this far out from the election. But what is clear to me, and perhaps many others, is that Americans hate having bloviating, self-important, political hacks and their media pimps delegitimizing their election results and wasting scads of money and time trying to overturn their choices. Will it result in President Trump being reelected - I think it might - but at the least it's going to help him more so than if the Democrats were actually trying to govern while in power.

Click to expand...

While I think all of your points have merit, I think many Trump defenders have missed a shift in sentiment, aka Trump fatigue. Many working class voters in swing states of the NE looked at Trump as a savior, a last ditch option that provided a chance to revitalize their industries. Others, tired of the Clinton machine were happy to take a risk and vote for Trump.

That commitment is no longer strong enough to secure re-election. A combination of relentless attacks and alarmism by the opinion leader class and democrats, and Trumps seemingly impulsive and ill-considered behavior (e.g. tweets, insults, staff firing, etc.) has simply worn out many who stuck by him over the last three years. Combine that with the independent voter desire to make the constant hysteria and noise abate, they (like in 2006) are more than happy to relent to the strident demands of the media and democrats).

Human nature being what it is, even when there is little reason for hysteria and manufactured tropes, people tend to 'feed the alligator' - those who scream and yell long enough get their way just to shut them up.

And in Trump's case, there is more than enough REAL reason for complaints - even his Republican allies in Congress are beginning to fracture...so much so an impeachment "inquiry" that should have been laughed off the floor of the house has been given legs.

Trump fatigue has spread, and regardless of the merit of impeachment some non-loyalists are almost ready to pull the trigger.

maxparrish said:

While I think all of your points have merit, I think many Trump defenders have missed a shift in sentiment, aka Trump fatigue. Many working class voters in swing states of the NE looked at Trump as a savior, a last ditch option that provided a chance to revitalize their industries. Others, tired of the Clinton machine were happy to take a risk and vote for Trump.

That commitment is no longer strong enough to secure re-election. A combination of relentless attacks and alarmism by the opinion leader class and democrats, and Trumps seemingly impulsive and ill-considered behavior (e.g. tweets, insults, staff firing, etc.) has simply worn out many who stuck by him over the last three years. Combine that with the independent voter desire to make the constant hysteria and noise abate, they (like in 2006) are more than happy to relent to the strident demands of the media and democrats).

Human nature being what it is, even when there is little reason for hysteria and manufactured tropes, people tend to 'feed the alligator' - those who scream and yell long enough get their way just to shut them up.

And in Trump's case, there is more than enough REAL reason for complaints - even his Republican allies in Congress are beginning to fracture...so much so an impeachment "inquiry" that should have been laughed off the floor of the house has been given legs.

Trump fatigue has spread, and regardless of the merit of impeachment some non-loyalists are almost ready to pull the trigger.

Click to expand...

Translation, they threw their votes away, voting against their own best interests for one reason or another, being underinformed, perceived religious considerations such as end times propaganda, racism, investment return on disinfo implanted by the Koch Bros. and their ilk, "Lost Cause" Daughters of the Confederacy lingering effect, or plain old greed. No surprise, only excuses.

A four star under Bush was forced out of the military due to a sexual relationship after he had separated from his wife but not yet divorced.

[h=3]James Cartwright - Wikipedia[/h]https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › James_Cartwright


James Edward "Hoss" Cartwright (born September 22, 1949) is a retired United States Marine Corps four-star general who last served as the eighth Vice Chairman ... President George W. Bush (at lectern) announces the nominations of ... that General Cartwright maintained an 'unduly familiar relationship' with his aide.

Click to expand...

Clinton was impeached over lying about a sexual affair, Trump made illegal payment to a porn star on the eve of the election because his strategists perceived too great a risk so close on the heals of the disclosure of the predator "grabber" tape. But now that this is out, it matters little to his supporters....

Some simply indicate a continuing urge to burn down the country, but all they did was facilitate a bigger, less accountable swamp teaming with polluters and a
variety of other grifters. They voted in a "stink" bomb and then encouraged it to fume, a flaming paper bag of feces dropped on our door steps!

Exclusive: Trump's 3,500 lawsuits unprecedented for a presidential nominee
USA TODAY ANALYSIS FINDS 3,500 LEGAL ACTIONS BY AND AGAINST TRUMP, FIGHTING EVERYONE FROM THE GOVERNMENT TO THE VODKA MAKERS.
Exclusive: Trump's 3,500 lawsuits unprecedented for a presidential nominee

Jun 1, 2016 - An exclusive USA TODAY analysis of legal filings across the U.S. finds that Donald Trump and his businesses have been involved in at least ...

Click to expand...

Whoops! Linked in last post to a General who did not quite match the description. The point here is that CIC Clinton and later, this General, were certainly held to account. Trump simply hides behind his supporters approved, "victim of the deep state" shield of protection against accountability for anything, aside from intentional destabilzation of northern Syria.

What were they thinking? Isn't it obvious if they got it wrong, an obvious self-centered jerk with 3500 lawsuits, indicating no negotiation strategy, ever, would be difficult to challenge or check without monopolizing the courts and the time and expense it would require and consume?

Adultery Inquiry Costs General His Command - The New York Times
Adultery Inquiry Costs General His Command
By David S. Cloud Aug. 11, 2005

...The lawyer, Lt. Col. David H. Robertson, said the case "involves an adult relationship with a woman who is not in the military, nor is a civilian employee of the military or the federal government."...

...General Byrnes contends that he should be allowed to retire at his current rank because an investigation found no evidence that he had used his position as head of the training command in connection with the case, an Army official said.

General Byrnes has told associates that the relationship began after his separation from his wife, Carol Byrnes, in May 2004. General Byrnes, 55, filed for divorce in March, according to documents filed with the Texas district court in Henderson County.

The divorce became final this week, according to the statement issued by his lawyer....

Click to expand...

My guess is that he will be impeached by the House; acquitted in the Senate and the General Election will be a nail biter.

tres borrachos said:

December 2020? It's November 2020.

But anyhoo, I chose option B. It's the most likely IMO.

Click to expand...

No, the November election only produces the President-Elect or the candidate favored to win the presidency. The electors pick the President and Vice President. The actual election is in December.

swing_voter said:

Yes, he'll survive.

No republicans have signed onto the impeachment. Without at least a dozen republicans it will look completely partisan.

Keep in mind that any congress can impeach any president, it doesn't matter if it's just or not. It's a completely political process.

If the impeachment is 100% partisan, what will the republicans do for revenge?

Click to expand...

If the Dems end up electing a president 1/2 as corrupt and impeachment worthy as Trump, (s)he should be impeached.

MTAtech said:

I think the evidence will prove to be overwhelming -- to the point that even Trump loyalists can't ignore it. Fearing their own political survival, they will convince him to resign for medical reasons, instead of the ending up in history as the first president to be removed from office.

Click to expand...

Michael Moore, who predicted Trump would win in 2016, says this now:

The Senate Will Convict

1. The Senate will not convict President Trump.

2. President Trump will decide not to run for reelection because of "health reasons."

3. The Republicans will nominate Senator Romney.

a. He will be our 46th president. Many people (of all political affiliations) disgusted by what the Dems did to President Trump will hold their noses and vote for Senator Romney.

The usual routine: The lesser evil.

BrotherFease said:

Choose your path carefully. Keep in mind, it might not be your exact thoughts, but closest.

PATH A - Trump will survive the current partisan attacks against him, and will get re-elected in December of 2020.

PATH B - Trump will get impeached, but come up short in the Senate. But in the general election, he will lose to Biden/Sanders/Warren/whoever ends up winning the Democratic nomination.

PATH C - Trump will get impeached, but come up short in the Senate. But he will come out against running for re-election.

PATH D - Trump will get impeached, but will resign before the Senate votes.

PATH E - Trump will resign before the congress votes for impeachment.

PATH F - Other.

Click to expand...

The more likely path that isn't an option is that Trump will be beaten in the 2020 election prior to the house even holding a vote. Dems would be wise to keep Trump focused on impeachment through the election so that he is at least partially focused on that during the election and not 6-8 months prior.

Keep investigating, keep impeachment in the news next summer.

Trump won't be successfully impeached and will probably win a second term. Because neither party gives a rat's ass about the working man.