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Is Biden Running Out of Gas?

Is Biding Running Out of Gas?

  • Biden is Crispy Toast

    Votes: 4 19.0%

  • Nice and Brown

    Votes: 2 9.5%

  • Barely singed

    Votes: 4 19.0%

  • Get the mayo. I want a sandwich

    Votes: 2 9.5%

  • Zombie Apocalypse

    Votes: 9 42.9%
  • Total voters
    21
  • Poll closed .
Luther said:
Biden doesn't need New Hampshire to win(Rolling eyes)
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BrotherFease said:
You do realize a few things:

1. Biden is leading in the national polls by at least 13%.
2. There was only ONE NH poll between late May and today, showing Sanders ahead of Biden. ONE. Just ONE.
3. That new Hampshire poll was not approved by the DNC.
4. He leads in Iowa and by about 10 miles in South Carolina.

Biden wins Iowa and SC, he's looking good down-the-stretch. Sanders and Warren dividing up the progressive/democratic socialist base, makes the moderate-to-liberal lane completely open for Biden.
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Is Biden's lead big enough? That is the basic question.

Three things are undoubted:
1) Biden is not a thrilling option.
2) No one else is generating much interest.
3) Biden's main selling point is that he is the best chance to beat Trump.

Iowa and New Hampshire are a closer to voting and the voters are already serious about choosing. It has been consistently true that the winning candidate will win at least one of the two states. Polling has tailed off during the late summer. Labor day is a traditional starting point for this sort of thing.
 
Jay59 said:
Is Biden's lead big enough? That is the basic question.

Three things are undoubted:
1) Biden is not a thrilling option.
2) No one else is generating much interest.
3) Biden's main selling point is that he is the best chance to beat Trump.

Iowa and New Hampshire are a closer to voting and the voters are already serious about choosing. It has been consistently true that the winning candidate will win at least one of the two states. Polling has tailed off during the late summer. Labor day is a traditional starting point for this sort of thing.
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Biden is not a thrilling option.
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But I think he can take Penn. A biggy

2) No one else is generating much interest.
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And as they drop out Biden's lead grows?


3) Biden's main selling point is that he is the best chance to beat Trump.
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I think he has the best CHANCE to
 
Jay59 said:
It could be.


That's counter intuitive. Why do you say so?


to what? To beat Trump? The old joke about slim and none comes to mind.
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That's counter intuitive. Why do you say so?
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Well, more will join the one who's leading in the polls? Just a guess?



to what? To beat Trump? The old joke about slim and none comes to mind.
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Who do you think that even has a chance at beating him?
 
Jay59 said:
Bernie Sanders has passed Biden in New Hampshire. That's no surprise since Bernie is from Vermont, but it's the first time Biden trailed in any serious poll, much less the first primary. The only August poll from Iowa shows Biden with a single digit lead. These two states dominate the news for a week before South Carolina. There Biden is up almost 20%.

Polling is thin, but these are very involved states and the results are much more predictive than national polls at this point. Is Biden's lead going to evaporate, or is he going to remain in front after the first couple weeks leading to Super Tuesday in March?
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I think Biden is likely to be the nominee. Many many Presidents failed to win New Hampshire or Iowa or both.
 
Jay59 said:
Is Biden's lead big enough?That is the basic question.
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I am going stop you right here.

Why must Biden hold a gigantic lead? All what he needs to do is come out of Iowa, NH, Nevada, and SC with at least 2 wins and he's golden. I mean, seriously. Biden seems to be held to the "he must crush everybody or else he's doomed" standard. We don't apply that same standard to Sanders or Warren. Those two have been constantly flip-flopping for the 2nd and 3rd spot.
 
Luther said:
Well, more will join the one who's leading in the polls? Just a guess? Who do you think that even has a chance at beating him?
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If it's a guess, fine. Biden is not generating enthusiasm, but neither are Bernie and Warren. Maybe they will jump on a bandwagon.

Chance? Slim and none. Slim's visa has expired and ICE is looking for her.
 
BrotherFease said:
I am going stop you right here. Why must Biden hold a gigantic lead? All what he needs to do is come out of Iowa, NH, Nevada, and SC with at least 2 wins and he's golden. I mean, seriously. Biden seems to be held to the "he must crush everybody or else he's doomed" standard. We don't apply that same standard to Sanders or Warren. Those two have been constantly flip-flopping for the 2nd and 3rd spot.
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If you think he's golden, why not just say so. My question is why do you think that he will win two of those states? He doesn't hold a gigantic lead and his support is very soft.
 
AlbqOwl said:
I think Biden is likely to be the nominee. Many many Presidents failed to win New Hampshire or Iowa or both.
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One or the other, several. Both, none that come to mind.
 
Jay59 said:
If you think he's golden, why not just say so. My question is why do you think that he will win two of those states? He doesn't hold a gigantic lead and his support is very soft.
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Realclearpolitics polling averages:

NATIONAL - Biden 29%, Sanders 16%, Warren 15%
+13% for Biden

IOWA - Biden 26%, Warren 18%, Sanders/Harris 14%,
+8% for Biden

NH - Biden 21%, Sanders 19%, Warren 15%
+2% for Biden

NV - Biden 30%, Sanders/Warren 15%
+15% for Biden

SC - Biden 38%, Sanders 14%, Warren 13%, Harris 12%
+24% for Biden

He's leading in the National polls and in all the early primary/caucus states.

Never said he'll win 2/4. I said IF he wins AT LEAST 2/4, he's golden.

There's no evidence he's running out of gas.

You have yet to explain why Biden should be held to a different standard than Sanders and Warren, two candidates who have yet to surpass the 20% mark on average.
 
BrotherFease said:
Realclearpolitics polling averages:
NATIONAL - Biden 29%, Sanders 16%, Warren 15% +13% for Biden
IOWA - Biden 26%, Warren 18%, Sanders/Harris 14%, +8% for Biden
NH - Biden 21%, Sanders 19%, Warren 15% +2% for Biden
NV - Biden 30%, Sanders/Warren 15% +15% for Biden
SC - Biden 38%, Sanders 14%, Warren 13%, Harris 12% +24% for Biden

He's leading in the National polls and in all the early primary/caucus states. Never said he'll win 2/4. I said IF he wins AT LEAST 2/4, he's golden. There's no evidence he's running out of gas. You have yet to explain why Biden should be held to a different standard than Sanders and Warren, two candidates who have yet to surpass the 20% mark on average.
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You can discount the national polls. There is information there, but it's not easy get out and the surface is misleading. Iowa and New Hampshire will be the ones to watch. They will be coming out soon. Check the dates on the ones at RCP. Only one is since August 1. Labor Day is a kick off point.
 
Bump just before the debate.

Latest Iowa poll has Biden's lead at 3% over Sanders and 12% over Warren.
Three new polls in NH has each of Biden, Warren, and Sanders leading one.
 
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