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What are Trump's Chances in 2020? With poll.

What is Trump's Chance for Reelection

  • Total voters
    107
  • Poll closed .
MovingPictures said:
Wow, McGovern and Dukakis? Live in the past much? 30 years is a long time and the country is more open to a liberal now.

When it comes to landslides and humiliating defeats, nobody does them better than the centrist Democrats leading the party. They got wiped out in landslides in 94', 10', and 14', and then lost battles to the WH to two complete imbecile opponents in 2000', 04' , and 16'.

Another Clinton-Kerry candidate a'la Biden, is exactly how we can lose again.
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Let's look at when Democrats won in the last 30 years: Bill Clinton, twice, Obama twice. Clinton by an electoral landslide in 96. The house and senate are different. The same people that show up on presidential elections to vote don't always show up for house and senate elections. Republicans do a far better job of turnout in mid year elections often.
 
SouthernDemocrat said:
Let's look at when Democrats won in the last 30 years: Bill Clinton, twice, Obama twice. Clinton by an electoral landslide in 96. The house and senate are different. The same people that show up on presidential elections to vote don't always show up for house and senate elections. Republicans do a far better job of turnout in mid year elections often.
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Perot was the spoiler for Republicans in both 92' and 96', something Democrats won't have this time around. Obama was much more liberal than Clinton was, and it paid out at the ballot box particularly in 2012, when he actually lost the independent vote, but was still able to win all of the swing states up for grabs, including Ohio and Florida, largely because the liberal base turned out because of the ACA passing, and a SCOTUS seat coming up for grabs.

It's nice to have the swing vote, but it's your base where your bread is buttered. Right now, the base of the Democratic party wants to see a Medicare for all platform. It's a litmus test they expect their candidate to pass, and a candidate that doesn't pass it is sure to have serious problems with turnout.

Finally, we are going to have to address the problem of getting wiped in midterms where we hold the WH. There's a difference between losing seats (which every party does when they hold the WH) and just getting wiped out to the point that we don't have majority control of either chamber for many years. When the GOP got control of the Congress in 94' they didn't lose their majority until 06'. When they took the House again in 2010 the Democrats didn't regain control for another eight years, and losing all those Senate seats in 14' had devastating results for judiciary appointments, and most importantly, the SCOTUS.

We have a problem turning out people that already agree with us and we can't ignore it any longer. Not confronting that and relying solely on squirrely independents is something the GOP recognized as fools gold decades ago.

I see where you're coming from, but it's a failed strategy.
 
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Mycroft said:
None of the above.

It is 150% certain Trump will win.

Keep in mind that the **** is going to hit the fan that will prove the Dems, the Obama administration and some Republicans broke the law and actively conspired to try to prevent Trump from winning his election...and when they failed, they worked to sabotage his Presidency.

That will ensure his victory in 2020.
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Somehow, I doubt that will happen, but who am I to judge a true believer?:roll:
 
This turning into a nice bell curve sample leaning a bit toward the Republicans. Since they are the home team, that makes perfect sense.
 
MovingPictures said:
Perot was the spoiler for Republicans in both 92' and 96', something Democrats won't have this time around. Obama was much more liberal than Clinton was, and it paid out at the ballot box particularly in 2012, when he actually lost the independent vote, but was still able to win all of the swing states up for grabs, including Ohio and Florida, largely because the liberal base turned out because of the ACA passing, and a SCOTUS seat coming up for grabs.

It's nice to have the swing vote, but it's your base where your bread is buttered. Right now, the base of the Democratic party wants to see a Medicare for all platform. It's a litmus test they expect their candidate to pass, and a candidate that doesn't pass it is sure to have serious problems with turnout.

Finally, we are going to have to address the problem of getting wiped in midterms where we hold the WH. There's a difference between losing seats (which every party does when they hold the WH) and just getting wiped out to the point that we don't have majority control of either chamber for many years. When the GOP got control of the Congress in 94' they didn't lose their majority until 06'. When they took the House again in 2010 the Democrats didn't regain control for another eight years, and losing all those Senate seats in 14' had devastating results for judiciary appointments, and most importantly, the SCOTUS.

We have a problem turning out people that already agree with us and we can't ignore it any longer. Not confronting that and relying solely on squirrely independents is something the GOP recognized as fools gold decades ago.

I see where you're coming from, but it's a failed strategy.
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Medicare has majority support until you ask about any of the details. You get down in the 30s for support for Medicare for All as soon as you ask about higher taxes to support it or pointing out it does away with employer sponsored plans. You have to remember, the average American is stupid. Liberal ideas poll well with them until you get into the details, then they get scared and vote for Republicans out of fear.
 
SouthernDemocrat said:
Medicare has majority support until you ask about any of the details. You get down in the 30s for support for Medicare for All as soon as you ask about higher taxes to support it or pointing out it does away with employer sponsored plans. You have to remember, the average American is stupid. Liberal ideas poll well with them until you get into the details, then they get scared and vote for Republicans out of fear.
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This is why I call handout programs candy campaigning. People like it but they can't live on it. Jobs and security are meat and potatoes (or rice in some places), which is where people live. Trump owns both.
 
SouthernDemocrat said:
Medicare has majority support until you ask about any of the details. You get down in the 30s for support for Medicare for All as soon as you ask about higher taxes to support it or pointing out it does away with employer sponsored plans. You have to remember, the average American is stupid. Liberal ideas poll well with them until you get into the details, then they get scared and vote for Republicans out of fear.
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That's a messaging problem that can be solved with the correct leaders. You don't have to throw your hands in the air and say "oh well, Republican-lite it is", as if that's the only response.

These problems can be solved by tapping into the nonvoting pool of liberals, not trying to educate the brainwashed.
 
MovingPictures said:
That's a messaging problem that can be solved with the correct leaders. You don't have to throw your hands in the air and say "oh well, Republican-lite it is", as if that's the only response.

These problems can be solved by tapping into the nonvoting pool of liberals, not trying to educate the brainwashed.
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Bill Clinton was easily the best communicator of any president since FDR, and he could not out message misleading negative ads on his universal healthcare bill.
 
SouthernDemocrat said:
Bill Clinton was easily the best communicator of any president since FDR, and he could not out message misleading negative ads on his universal healthcare bill.
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Um, not really.

He had his moments.
 
Helix said:
it's difficult to predict this far out. if the Democrats actually show up this time around, they have a chance.
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( buzzard sounds off)

You can have 100,000 liberal/Demos running against our President and none will come close in defeating Donald Trump. For the heck of it let lets have some fun watching the Demos lose.
 
At the moment I think:
Trump has around 40-55% chance.
If Biden is nominated, his chances will increase.
If Sanders is nominated, his chances will shrink.

And yes, I know the polls don't agree.
 
Jay59 said:
The title says it. Open 180 days
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Too early to call yet but if things stay as they are now, I would certainly put my money on President Trump. That means that I still have faith in the majority of Americans to use common sense and logic.

He's running on:

--A good economy that is increasing our manufacturing base and encouraging more companies to return to the USA than are leaving it
--More jobs than there are qualified people to fill them which opens the door to many hard core unemployed to get a foot in the door.
--Higher wages after a decade of mostly stagnation
--Increasing individual and family wealth after a decade of mostly stagnation
--Record or near record unemployment in essentially all demographics
--Labor participation rate is ticking up despite record numbers of retiring baby boomers
--Peace through strength
--Determination to respect and protect language, borders, and culture that determine the values and character and security of a nation
--Respect for history, the military, veterans, life, God, flag, country, mom, apple pie--all the values that mainstream Americans cherish
--Better healthcare that frees the system to work more efficiently, effectively, and affordably for all.
--Protecting the courts from radicalism regardless of ideology
--A vision of what a strong, successful, peaceful, prosperous, and benevolent nation looks like.

His opposition is running on:

--The economy is terrible and we will change it to something we can control
--Guaranteed incomes that taxing the rich more will pay for
--Free education through college that taxing the rich more will pay for
--Forgiving all student loans as it is the rich who hold that debt and they won't mind much
--Emptying the prisons--the cost of not running the prisons should cover any negative effects of that
--Welcome all who want to be here from anywhere in any numbers essentially doing away with the border
--Subsidized housing, free education, free health care, free driver's licenses for illegals--who won't be illegal anymore--and taxing the rich more to pay for that.
--Down payments for homes for everybody and taxing the rich more to pay for that.
--Re-establishing regulation that have been rolled back as nobody will mind except for the rich
--Reparations to black people and possibly gays, American Indians, and whoever needs to be soothed in return for votes--the rich will pay for that
--Free contraceptives and free abortions for all, including transgendered males, at any stage of pregnancy and in some cases after the baby is born--the rich will be happy to pay for that.
--Medicare for all -- okay everybody in addition to the rich will have to pay that if they pay taxes
--Restoring America's place in the international community--we will meekly apologize for who and what we are and conform to what they say we have to be.
--Pretty much big government initiatives and solutions for everything that they will swear is not Marxist socialism leading to totalitarianism and total government control.

We do have an unacceptable deficit with resulting dangerous increases in the national debt but both sides have to take the hit on that so I don't think it will affect the election all that much.

So if there are still more patriotic Americans who value liberty, self-reliance, personal responsibility and accountability and fear big government one-size-fits-all concepts than we do snowflakes, big government left winger types, the socialist minded, Trump wins in a land slide. If not, goodbye America. You had a great run and made us proud. We will mourn you as you become something quite different and less healthy and satisfying for all.
 
Well folks if Trump wins we will have a country just like North Korea or Russia... trump can taste the dictatorship of running a Communist country where he is and can control everything without any senate or house telling him anything or looking at anything. that is why he likes Putin and Kim over the other free countries...and if he doesnot get elected he is going to rip the taxpayers money dry before he leaves
 
AlbqOwl said:
Too early to call yet but if things stay as they are now, I would certainly put my money on President Trump. That means that I still have faith in the majority of Americans to use common sense and logic.

He's running on:

--A good economy that is increasing our manufacturing base and encouraging more companies to return to the USA than are leaving it
--More jobs than there are qualified people to fill them which opens the door to many hard core unemployed to get a foot in the door.
--Higher wages after a decade of mostly stagnation
--Increasing individual and family wealth after a decade of mostly stagnation
--Record or near record unemployment in essentially all demographics
--Labor participation rate is ticking up despite record numbers of retiring baby boomers
--Peace through strength
--Determination to respect and protect language, borders, and culture that determine the values and character and security of a nation
--Respect for history, the military, veterans, life, God, flag, country, mom, apple pie--all the values that mainstream Americans cherish
--Better healthcare that frees the system to work more efficiently, effectively, and affordably for all.
--Protecting the courts from radicalism regardless of ideology
--A vision of what a strong, successful, peaceful, prosperous, and benevolent nation looks like.

His opposition is running on:

--The economy is terrible and we will change it to something we can control
--Guaranteed incomes that taxing the rich more will pay for
--Free education through college that taxing the rich more will pay for
--Forgiving all student loans as it is the rich who hold that debt and they won't mind much
--Emptying the prisons--the cost of not running the prisons should cover any negative effects of that
--Welcome all who want to be here from anywhere in any numbers essentially doing away with the border
--Subsidized housing, free education, free health care, free driver's licenses for illegals--who won't be illegal anymore--and taxing the rich more to pay for that.
--Down payments for homes for everybody and taxing the rich more to pay for that.
--Re-establishing regulation that have been rolled back as nobody will mind except for the rich
--Reparations to black people and possibly gays, American Indians, and whoever needs to be soothed in return for votes--the rich will pay for that
--Free contraceptives and free abortions for all, including transgendered males, at any stage of pregnancy and in some cases after the baby is born--the rich will be happy to pay for that.
--Medicare for all -- okay everybody in addition to the rich will have to pay that if they pay taxes
--Restoring America's place in the international community--we will meekly apologize for who and what we are and conform to what they say we have to be.
--Pretty much big government initiatives and solutions for everything that they will swear is not Marxist socialism leading to totalitarianism and total government control.

We do have an unacceptable deficit with resulting dangerous increases in the national debt but both sides have to take the hit on that so I don't think it will affect the election all that much.

So if there are still more patriotic Americans who value liberty, self-reliance, personal responsibility and accountability and fear big government one-size-fits-all concepts than we do snowflakes, big government left winger types, the socialist minded, Trump wins in a land slide. If not, goodbye America. You had a great run and made us proud. We will mourn you as you become something quite different and less healthy and satisfying for all.
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1 this is obama's unemployment rate obama 9.75 percent to 4.7 trump 4.7 to 3.5 please give me a break...
2.Trump dont give a f--k about the military vets look how he did our best vet McCain wow cover McCain boat up???
3. we all know trump dodged the draft wonder why he was not in college then.. that is what most rich white men did to get out draft.

are you that type of person(white supremacist) that believes everyone else is sub human and the only way to get what you want is with a gun or by force..just asking and by the way not one white man here has the right to tell anyone to get out this country you took it from the north american indians with the almighty gun
 
plutonium said:
1 this is obama's unemployment rate obama 9.75 percent to 4.7 trump 4.7 to 3.5 please give me a break...
2.Trump dont give a f--k about the military vets look how he did our best vet McCain wow cover McCain boat up???
3. we all know trump dodged the draft wonder why he was not in college then.. that is what most rich white men did to get out draft.

are you that type of person(white supremacist) that believes everyone else is sub human and the only way to get what you want is with a gun or by force..just asking and by the way not one white man here has the right to tell anyone to get out this country you took it from the north american indians with the almighty gun
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It's arguments like yours that give me increased hope that common sense and reason will provide a second term for President Trump. Please keep making those arguments though. It really helps the President's case.
 
Jay59 said:
Comparing CNN, NYT, WaPo, etc. to animals in a zoo is an interesting. They all do seem to be captive of a meme. BTW I don't go with derangement. It's Trump Denial Syndrome.

I already backed up my, but you glossed right over it. Stick with Nate Silver since we agree that he knows statistics. He's the one telling you that Trump has rock solid support in the party. Obama was not close among Democrats.
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May I remind you that I took issue with this quote:

Jay59 said:
As if he needed one. The actual Democratic candidate is immaterial.

Any Democrat in this field is doomed. None of the top five can handle Trump on even terms and Trump has the advantage, to with the economy and holding the job. That he has done a very good job is what might make it ugly for the Democrats.
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…which states that a Democratic candidate has no shot because Trump has done a very good job. I challenged that notion by documenting the fact that a majority of Americans not only do not agree with the statement, but the majority believe he is not only doing an inadequate job, but he is unfit for the office (can’t do the job). It seems illogical that these people (the majority of voters) would suddenly vote for Trump based on him doing a good job when the large perception is that he is not.

You have told us that you think Trump is a 75-90% chance of re-elect, yet you can not defend that statement even when challenged to do so. The best you have come up with is the notion that he has unprecedented Republican support. The fact that the Republican party has shrunk since his election (a bigger piece of a smaller pie), notwithstanding, I concede that statement is true. That said, you can not win an election with he support of 90% of 24%, even with a good turnout.

You then argue that the 538.com polls (you do realize they are a composite of polls) shows Trump with a “floor” of 42%, implying that all he can do is go up. Interesting, but you have little basis for that thinking as well. He has 42% with a strong economy, relative peace and no real crisis. It seems far more a ceiling than a floor. Regardless, his approval rating seems locked in the lower 40ers. There is no foundation to think it will move up or down.

What I pointed out to you (and documented) is that he is upside down in every swing state AND in trouble is several traditionally red states (except Arizona, where is down). Let's look at the ugly reality once again, shall we?

Tracking Trump: The President’s Standing Across America

Yep, just as ugly (for you, anyway) as it was a few days ago (and months ago...and for the 2018 mid-terms)... it, like Trump's approval polls just don't seem to move much.

So, I stand firm. You have produced NOTHING to support your argument that Trump will win (much less it being a near certainty), nor have you been able to refute the arguments that I have made that shows all empirical evidence shows Trump in a deep hole. I do hope we see some greater debating skills from you in the future. Your defense of your original proposition here falls short of pathetic.

Frankly, he would probably save the taxpayers a ton of money if he books his Allied Van Lines moving van today.

So, in summary, your whole argument for Trump being re-elected is your wishful thinking, which stands in stark contrast to the prevailing facts.




PS - I presented no articles from WaPo or the NYT. I offered original content direct from the sources. You, on the other hand, made several claims and offered nothing to back up your statements other than more statements.

May I point out, however, that WaPo and the NYT continue to have a reputation for high factual integrity as well as continue to be among the greatest newspapers in the world. I am sorry you can't handle what they have to say, but it generally is more truth than almost any media outlet that caters to right wingers.

New York Times - Media Bias/Fact Check
Washington Post - Media Bias/Fact Check

These Are the Best English Newspapers in the World - OnlineCollegeCourses.com
10 Journalism Brands Where You Find Real Facts Rather Than Alternative Facts
 
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upsideguy said:
May I remind you that I took issue with this quote:



…which states that a Democratic candidate has no shot because Trump has done a very good job. I challenged that notion by documenting the fact that a majority of Americans not only do not agree with the statement, but the majority believe he is not only doing an inadequate job, but he is unfit for the office (can’t do the job). It seems illogical that these people (the majority of voters) would suddenly vote for Trump based on him doing a good job when the large perception is that he is not.

You have told us that you think Trump is a 75-90% chance of re-elect, yet you can not defend that statement even when challenged to do so. The best you have come up with is the notion that he has unprecedented Republican support. The fact that the Republican party has shrunk since his election (a bigger piece of a smaller pie), notwithstanding, I concede that statement is true. That said, you can not win an election with he support of 90% of 24%, even with a good turnout.

You then argue that the 538.com polls (you do realize they are a composite of polls) shows Trump with a “floor” of 42%, implying that all he can do is go up. Interesting, but you have little basis for that thinking as well. He has 42% with a strong economy, relative peace and no real crisis. It seems far more a ceiling than a floor. Regardless, his approval rating seems locked in the lower 40ers. There is no foundation to think it will move up or down.

What I pointed out to you (and documented) is that he is upside down in every swing state AND in trouble is several traditionally red states (except Arizona, where is down). Let's look at the ugly reality once again, shall we?

Tracking Trump: The President’s Standing Across America

Yep, just as ugly (for you, anyway) as it was a few days ago (and months ago...and for the 2018 mid-terms)... it, like Trump's approval polls just don't seem to move much.

So, I stand firm. You have produced NOTHING to support your argument that Trump will win (much less it being a near certainty), nor have you been able to refute the arguments that I have made that shows all empirical evidence shows Trump in a deep hole. I do hope we see some greater debating skills from you in the future. Your defense of your original proposition here falls short of pathetic.

Frankly, he would probably save the taxpayers a ton of money if he books his Allied Van Lines moving van today.

So, in summary, your whole argument for Trump being re-elected is your wishful thinking, which stands in stark contrast to the prevailing facts.




PS - I presented no articles from WaPo or the NYT. I offered original content direct from the sources. You, on the other hand, made several claims and offered nothing to back up your statements other than more statements.

May I point out, however, that WaPo and the NYT continue to have a reputation for high factual integrity as well as continue to be among the greatest newspapers in the world. I am sorry you can't handle what they have to say, but it generally is more truth than almost any media outlet that caters to right wingers.

New York Times - Media Bias/Fact Check
Washington Post - Media Bias/Fact Check

These Are the Best English Newspapers in the World - OnlineCollegeCourses.com
10 Journalism Brands Where You Find Real Facts Rather Than Alternative Facts
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Was there a point? If so, I missed it.

Trump has done a very good job. Everything else is alternate facts or fake news.
 
Jay59 said:
Was there a point? If so, I missed it.

Trump has done a very good job. Everything else is alternate facts or fake news.
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Yes, but because you apparently live in an alternative universe, you missed (or can not comprehend) the point. My point was quite clear: "....Your whole argument for Trump being re-elected is your wishful thinking, which stands in stark contrast to the prevailing facts...."

"Doing a good job" is in the eye of the beholder, in this case the voter. Most of the voters in America do not believe he is doing a good job (see my other posts in this thread for numerous cites)... only the minority believe as you. To win an election, you need a majority. There is no empirical evidence that a majority of voters is in his grasp, by any measure, except in the alternative universe where you seem to be happiest. There is no evidence that Trump can, much less will, win again. Unless, of course, something changes, but there is no evidence of that either.

You should simply admit the obvious here: You BELIEVE he is going to be reelected, because....well, you simply "believe" There is no factual foundation for that belief, but that is what faith is all about.
 
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upsideguy said:
Yes, but because you apparently live in an alternative universe, you missed (or can not comprehend) the point. My point was quite clear: "....Your whole argument for Trump being re-elected is your wishful thinking, which stands in stark contrast to the prevailing facts...."

"Doing a good job" is in the eye of the beholder, in this case the voter. Most of the voters in America do not believe he is doing a good job (see my other posts in this thread for numerous cites)... only the minority believe as you. To win an election, you need a majority. There is no empirical evidence that a majority of voters is in his grasp, by any measure, except in the alternative universe where you seem to be happiest. There is no evidence that Trump can, much less will, win again. Unless, of course, something changes, but there is no evidence of that either.

You should simply admit the obvious here: You BELIEVE he is going to be reelected, because....well, you simply "believe" There is no factual foundation for that belief, but that is what faith is all about.
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I you want some form of non-cash wager, I am up for that.
 
upsideguy said:
We all appreciate your faith, which stands in defiance of logic and all known data.
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If you think it stands in the way of all known data, your reading skills need improvement. The poll at the top of the page is relevant data.

Very little faith is involved. A combination of history and trends point to a very obvious conclusion. Of course deniers cannot see even the obvious.
 
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