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What are Trump's Chances in 2020? With poll.

What is Trump's Chance for Reelection

  • Total voters
    107
  • Poll closed .
Helix said:
it's difficult to predict this far out. if the Democrats actually show up this time around, they have a chance.
Click to expand...

Depends on if hostile tribe A will drive anyone from tribe B,C,D,E,F,or G to the polls. That is the basic problem with progressive identity politics, they hurt the ones closest to them. The tribes are happier when fighting each other, and the media feeds them interviews because they need the ratings now that the Mueller show has dried up.
 
Mycroft said:
None of the above.

It is 150% certain Trump will win.

Keep in mind that the **** is going to hit the fan that will prove the Dems, the Obama administration and some Republicans broke the law and actively conspired to try to prevent Trump from winning his election...and when they failed, they worked to sabotage his Presidency.

That will ensure his victory in 2020.
Click to expand...

I don't think you understand statistics.
 
chuckiechan said:
Depends on if hostile tribe A will drive anyone from tribe B,C,D,E,F,or G to the polls. That is the basic problem with progressive identity politics, they hurt the ones closest to them. The tribes are happier when fighting each other, and the media feeds them interviews because they need the ratings now that the Mueller show has dried up.
Click to expand...

It partially depends on how well America's gag reflex still works. I'm hoping that it's intact.
 
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Kreton said:
I don't think you understand statistics.
Click to expand...
Here's a thought. Maybe he does understand and is exaggerating for effect.

Helix said:
Let's hope. I would consider a 2008 level of participation or better "showing up." Additionally, though I don't see a real standout yet, every candidate in the field is preferable to Trump.
Click to expand...
You think it will take record Democratic turnout to beat Trump? Wow.

Resign yourself to four more years, because none of these candidates will deliver record turnout. OTOH, The Republicans may do exactly that.
 
Jay59 said:
Here's a thought. Maybe he does understand and is exaggerating for effect.


You think it will take record Democratic turnout to beat Trump? Wow.

Resign yourself to four more years, because none of these candidates will deliver record turnout. OTOH, The Republicans may do exactly that.
Click to expand...

I would definitely encourage it if they want a significant win and to kick more of his cult out of congress.
 
Jay59 said:
I notice you do not contend that he is NOT doing a good job.

As a fellow statistician, I have a great deal of respect for Nate Silver. That said, he would be the first to tell you that polling is very difficult and easily misused. He has also been known to grind the occasional ax. That said, one of the things he makes very clear is how popular Trump is with Republicans. This is not surprising, because they think he has done a very good job. This will be important when voting comes, because turnout will also matter in state and local elections.

Democrat and independent views are not depicted, but it is safe to assume that Trump is very unpopular with self described Democrats/liberals/progressives. The relevant number is the independents and late deciding voters. We will know little of them for at least a year more.

Since we are on the subject of tracking polls, it is worth noting how level they have been since April/May 2017. Given that there has been a major probe into his pre-election conduct, that is significant. Basically, you are looking at Trump's floor numbers. They will not go any lower under any normal provocation and can easily rise.
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Lest there be no doubt, IMHO Trump is doing an abysmal job, unless your goal is to wreck American democracy and delete American world standing by eliminating its soft-power. In fact, I will go one more step. In my view, he is the biggest threat to American Democracy since the Civil War. Of course, he can only be such a threat through the cowardly enablement of his own party leaders, as the man could be put in check immediately and disposed of tomorrow, if they had any guts. But, they do not. But that isn't my point. I am not here to argue what I think about Trump (happy to do that in an appropriate thread). I am here to argue his electability, or, the case I make, is inability to re-win the White House.

The reality is that most Americans not only feel that Trump is doing a bad job;

FiveThirtyEight | Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and culture.
Latest Polls | FiveThirtyEight

most Americans actually think he is unfit for the job (he can't do the job). That number has held reasonably steady over much of the tenure of his Administration.

National (US) Poll - September 27, 2017 - Trump Is Not Fit To Be Preside | Quinnipiac University Connecticut
National (US) Poll - January 10, 2018 - Trump Is Intelligent, But Not | Quinnipiac University Connecticut
National (US) Poll - September 10, 2018 - U.S. Voters Believe Anonymous | Quinnipiac University Connecticut
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2593

This explains why 54% of Americans say they will not vote for Trump. They want him gone.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/29/mor...ump-in-2020-citing-health-care-poll-says.html
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/05/trump-poll-2020-elections-1146160

It is an interesting point that you think the current number is the floor. Perhaps. But, for the reasons articulated above, it also appears to be the ceiling; 43% in a strong economy? That looks a lot more like a ceiling than a floor. It is clear that the majority of Americans do not want Trump... and given this thread is all about Trump's electability, its pretty hard to argue that he has a strong case for re-election in the current circumstance, Given that Trump has done nothing to broaden his base, its pretty hard to see a strong case for even the possibility of him being re-elected. Again, I point to just how upside-down Trump currently is in Michigan (down 15), Wisconsin (down 12), Pennsylvania (down 12), Iowa (down 12), Arizona (down 7) and Ohio (down 7); while being in trouble in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. He needs to win just about all of them to have any hope of not having to call Allied Van Lines.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

As to turnout, history shows that people that feel the incumbent needs to be replaced tend to turn out in higher numbers than those that approve. Given the passion against Trump, my money is on a stiff turnout in favor of change. The 2018 election and most major interim elections since Trump took office are a testament to this statement.

The evidence simply does not support his re-election. The people that think Trump has a better than 50% chance of re-election are simply wishful thinking, as the facts are not on their side.
 
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Oh my! The left doesn’t like Trump. Wash wash waaaaaaaah!
 
Too early to tell since he doesn't have an opponent yet. Like last time it largely depends on who the Dems pick and whether that person is a motivating factor enough to get people out.

One thing's for sure Trump won't get a single vote more than he did last time. He will lose the popular vote by at 3 million again even in another low turnout; if the midterms are anything to go by, and the Dems have an inspiring candidate, it could be 10-12 million. He'll certainly have a legitimacy cloud over him then if he still wins.
 
Mycroft said:
Keep in mind that the **** is going to hit the fan that will prove the Dems, the Obama administration and some Republicans broke the law and actively conspired to try to prevent Trump from winning his election...and when they failed, they worked to sabotage his Presidency.
Click to expand...

I can confidently state that is not going to happen. It's just a right-wing fantasy.

If trump wins it's because the dems misjudged and fronted a crap candidate. Dunno who that is yet. Even Biden could prolly beat him because Biden can claw back those rust-belt swing districts.
 
Mostly it will depend on who the Dems put up, but probably 50/50 shot.
 
At this point in, I'm saying it's a solid bet that Trump will win in 2020. If the border continues to be built through out the rest of this year and all the way through both the primary and general elections, chances of Trump winning will go up. If he does the ICE raids and a ton of illegals get deported through out this year and the next, again, his odds of winning go up further.If he gets his merit based immigration system in place, the chances of him winning would almost be all but secured. If he gets Mexico MORE in line with deporting illegal aliens entering their country to get into ours by not just securing the border but also building up a barrier of some sorts, Trump more or less has 2020 secured. With the combination of everything listed in this post, if the citizenship question makes it on census, say hello to Donald J Trump's second term.

At this moment in time, no one really knows if Trump will or will not win. However, there are other indicators that point towards Trump's victory. At the top of the list is the economy. Anyone denying how phenomenal the economy is, with all time low unemployment numbers, all time high employment numbers, and lower taxes, all because of Trump's policies, you are either being told lies by Leftists and Never-Trump "Right" Wingers, or you're either a Leftist or a Never-Trump "Right" Winger just saying it's bad because you don't like Trump. All the positives in the economy are because of Trump and NOT Obama or anyone before him. Other indicators are putting an embassy in Jerusalem, the decimation of ISIS, peace talks with North Korea, better trade deals with China and other countries, cracking down better on opioids and other drugs, and that's just a small list.

These smaller accomplishments will definitely help, but in order for Trump to win in 2020, illegal aliens must be deported by the millions and the border wall must be built, along with his other immigration policies. Where I believe these polls coming out saying that all the Democrat candidates will beat Trump next year are bullsh!t (because those polls are loaded with Democrats and Never Trump Republicans), it's still WAY too early to say who's going to win. The ONLY poll that matters is when Election Day rolls and the ACTUAL votes are counted (and determines the winner). But with all that said, I think Trump's chances of winning are really good, right now, with potential to be much higher, IF he can get his agenda of immigration through.
 
uptower said:
Too early to tell since he doesn't have an opponent yet. Like last time it largely depends on who the Dems pick and whether that person is a motivating factor enough to get people out.

One thing's for sure Trump won't get a single vote more than he did last time. He will lose the popular vote by at 3 million again even in another low turnout; if the midterms are anything to go by, and the Dems have an inspiring candidate, it could be 10-12 million. He'll certainly have a legitimacy cloud over him then if he still wins.
Click to expand...

There's something happening here since the first debate. 25 June, pre-debate, Biden was beating Trump by 10, Sanders by 10, Warren by 6, Harris by 4 and Buttigieg up by 4. 28 June its Biden over Trump by 8, Sanders by 6, Warren by 4, Harris by 4 and Buttigieg by 2. As of 7 July, it Biden over Trump by 10, Sanders leads Trump by 1, Warren is tied with Trump, Harris up by 2 and Buttigieg is tied with Trump.

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls

Way too early to read much into those polls. But I have to wonder if the debate showed the Democratic candidates way too far left for middle America. I don't mean geographically, I mean ideology, center, center right and center left. This is something I will keep an eye on.

Remember Trump won in 2016 because he carried the independent vote. The non-affiliated, those much less partisan to non-partisan, those who usually fall somewhere in-between the far right and far left of our two major parties.

The midterms, independents went for the Democratic congressional candidates 54-42 over the Republican congressional candidates. The Democrats picked up 40 seats. Now 35 of those 40 seats were won by moderate Democrats vs. 5 won by the far left democrats.

Who's the only moderate democrat in this presidential field that has been polled vs Trump? Biden of course. He's maintained his 10 point lead over Trump, all others have fallen. All others have come over looking very or possibly extreme left.

You can concentrate on turnout. Myself, I want a candidate that can attract the independent voter, Hillary couldn't. The Democratic Party is still the larger of the two major parties, that means Trump must win the independent vote or lose the election. Democrats just have to keep it fairly close. One other fact, the two major parties are shrinking. Independent rising, from 2006 when independents made up 30% of the electorate to today where independents make up 44%.

A word of advice for the Democrats, nominate a candidate attractive to independents, win by a landslide. Nominate another candidate independents dislike, a repeat of 2016 is very possible.
 
cpwill said:
:roll: Sure. Just like Hillary was guaranteed to win because Trump was so awful.

Trump has low favorability for a reason, and people don't seem all that convinced the economy is doing great (and I'm not convinced it will stay as solid as it is - that the market would dip due to a better than expected jobs report suggests it is well out of whack).... and, in fact, much of Trump's own campaign is built on the argument that it hasn't been doing that great. You are way overestimating his strengths in this one.
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Trump lost the popular vote. Trump won in the EC due to a loyal base that narrowly won in three states. His base is smaller now, with 52% of polled saying the definitely won't vote for him. Instead of reaching out to expand his base, he continues to fortify that narrow base. A majority of the American electorate -- liberals, moderates and even some conservatives -- want a greater government role in health care, a higher minimum wage, higher taxes on the rich and less punitive border policies. If Trump isn’t going to move to the center, then their only choice should be the party that, no matter its nominee, backs each item on that list.

Trump will try to take credit for the economy, just as the economy is slowing.
 
Perotista said:
There's something happening here since the first debate. 25 June, pre-debate, Biden was beating Trump by 10, Sanders by 10, Warren by 6, Harris by 4 and Buttigieg up by 4. 28 June its Biden over Trump by 8, Sanders by 6, Warren by 4, Harris by 4 and Buttigieg by 2. As of 7 July, it Biden over Trump by 10, Sanders leads Trump by 1, Warren is tied with Trump, Harris up by 2 and Buttigieg is tied with Trump.

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls

Way too early to read much into those polls. But I have to wonder if the debate showed the Democratic candidates way too far left for middle America. I don't mean geographically, I mean ideology, center, center right and center left. This is something I will keep an eye on.

Remember Trump won in 2016 because he carried the independent vote. The non-affiliated, those much less partisan to non-partisan, those who usually fall somewhere in-between the far right and far left of our two major parties.

The midterms, independents went for the Democratic congressional candidates 54-42 over the Republican congressional candidates. The Democrats picked up 40 seats. Now 35 of those 40 seats were won by moderate Democrats vs. 5 won by the far left democrats.

Who's the only moderate democrat in this presidential field that has been polled vs Trump? Biden of course. He's maintained his 10 point lead over Trump, all others have fallen. All others have come over looking very or possibly extreme left.

You can concentrate on turnout. Myself, I want a candidate that can attract the independent voter, Hillary couldn't. The Democratic Party is still the larger of the two major parties, that means Trump must win the independent vote or lose the election. Democrats just have to keep it fairly close. One other fact, the two major parties are shrinking. Independent rising, from 2006 when independents made up 30% of the electorate to today where independents make up 44%.

A word of advice for the Democrats, nominate a candidate attractive to independents, win by a landslide. Nominate another candidate independents dislike, a repeat of 2016 is very possible.
Click to expand...

In 2016, Trump promised that his health care plan would be better, cheaper, and wider than Obamacare. The actual plan was worse in every respect and even John McCain voted against it and killed it.

In 2016, Trump said he would raise taxes on rich people like himself. The bill he supported and signed lowers taxes on people like him and raised them on many middle class families.

In 2016, Trump promised coal miners that he'd bring back their high-paying coal mining jobs. Since then, coal companies have declared bankruptcy and coal employment is not higher.

What we see is a lot of broken promises on economic issues.

Democratic candidates are exactly where the American voters is today: Voters want higher taxes on the rich; a higher minimum wage; an improvement over the ACA, etc.
 
upsideguy said:
Lest there be no doubt, IMHO Trump is doing an abysmal job, unless your goal is to wreck American democracy and delete American world standing by eliminating its soft-power. In fact, I will go one more step. In my view, he is the biggest threat to American Democracy since the Civil War. Of course, he can only be such a threat through the cowardly enablement of his own party leaders, as the man could be put in check immediately and disposed of tomorrow, if they had any guts. But, they do not. But that isn't my point. I am not here to argue what I think about Trump (happy to do that in an appropriate thread). I am here to argue his electability, or, the case I make, is inability to re-win the White House.

The reality is that most Americans not only feel that Trump is doing a bad job;

FiveThirtyEight | Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and culture.
Latest Polls | FiveThirtyEight

most Americans actually think he is unfit for the job (he can't do the job). That number has held reasonably steady over much of the tenure of his Administration.

National (US) Poll - September 27, 2017 - Trump Is Not Fit To Be Preside | Quinnipiac University Connecticut
National (US) Poll - January 10, 2018 - Trump Is Intelligent, But Not | Quinnipiac University Connecticut
National (US) Poll - September 10, 2018 - U.S. Voters Believe Anonymous | Quinnipiac University Connecticut
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2593

This explains why 54% of Americans say they will not vote for Trump. They want him gone.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/29/mor...ump-in-2020-citing-health-care-poll-says.html
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/05/trump-poll-2020-elections-1146160

It is an interesting point that you think the current number is the floor. Perhaps. But, for the reasons articulated above, it also appears to be the ceiling; 43% in a strong economy? That looks a lot more like a ceiling than a floor. It is clear that the majority of Americans do not want Trump... and given this thread is all about Trump's electability, its pretty hard to argue that he has a strong case for re-election in the current circumstance, Given that Trump has done nothing to broaden his base, its pretty hard to see a strong case for even the possibility of him being re-elected. Again, I point to just how upside-down Trump currently is in Michigan (down 15), Wisconsin (down 12), Pennsylvania (down 12), Iowa (down 12), Arizona (down 7) and Ohio (down 7); while being in trouble in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. He needs to win just about all of them to have any hope of not having to call Allied Van Lines.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

As to turnout, history shows that people that feel the incumbent needs to be replaced tend to turn out in higher numbers than those that approve. Given the passion against Trump, my money is on a stiff turnout in favor of change. The 2018 election and most major interim elections since Trump took office are a testament to this statement.

The evidence simply does not support his re-election. The people that think Trump has a better than 50% chance of re-election are simply wishful thinking, as the facts are not on their side.
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Written like a true TDS sufferer. I am so sorry.

It is not impressive to quote large numbers of stories showing Trump is doing a poor job. TDS seems to be a job requirement at many news providers. Fox Runs 55% negative and they are criticized as biased in Trump's favor. TNYT is criticized because they will run a balanced story buried in the middle of the paper. Trump Denial sufferers don't want any acknowledgement when Trump does something right.

At least you will have a support group in 2021.
 
MTAtech said:
In 2016, Trump promised that his health care plan would be better, cheaper, and wider than Obamacare. The actual plan was worse in every respect and even John McCain voted against it and killed it.
Not quite correct. McCain voted against a straight repeal of ACA.

In 2016, Trump said he would raise taxes on rich people like himself. The bill he supported and signed lowers taxes on people like him and raised them on many middle class families. In 2016, Trump promised coal miners that he'd bring back their high-paying coal mining jobs. Since then, coal companies have declared bankruptcy and coal employment is not higher. What we see is a lot of broken promises on economic issues.
Both of those count as promises kept. A median income family received more than $1500 in benefits. The rate reform has greatly benefited our balance of trade. Obama era regulations designed to cripple the coal industry were repealed. That does not change the underlying fact that methane is killing coal slowly. Trump never promised to do anything about that.

Democratic candidates are exactly where the American voters is today: Voters want higher taxes on the rich; a higher minimum wage; an improvement over the ACA, etc.
Click to expand...
Democratic voters might but most Americans want jobs, better income and secure prospects for the future.
 
Perotista said:
Remember Trump won in 2016 because he carried the independent vote. The non-affiliated, those much less partisan to non-partisan, those who usually fall somewhere in-between the far right and far left of our two major parties.
.
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Well I think there's a tendency out there to mistake wing voters for Republicans in disguise. After all that's all a lot of 'independents' have proven to be over the years: "I'm independent so I voted republican for 40 years, MAGA!" Well then, they are not.

Remember a lot of counties that might have gone for Bernie chose trump because they just couldn't stand Hillary. Take her and her toxic reputation out of the mix and Warren, Biden and Sanders are not nearly as hated; Harris and others are new like Obama was and don't really carry baggage (as much as the media will try to manufacture some).

So those swing voters, non-affiliated, heard trump was going to make better healthcare, he was going to drain the swamp, he was going to bring back jobs and fix the economy (not just raise the Dow). Some will have even voted for his border security promises. Now they will have seen he had no intention of doing any of these and in many cases has made it worse - they've lost pre-existing protections, their wages are stagnant, their jobs haven't come back, washington is even more corrupt, with the president openly profiting from govt and the fake immigration crisis on the border has been wilfully transformed into a genuine humanitarian one. These people voted for Obama once, they never subscribed to MAGA; Trump was in many cases their second choice after Bernie, so if he's back, or someone like him, they just won't go for Trump. Even the macho rust-belt union types (I call the Bill Burr Democrats), given the choice between two ass-grabbers, would probably prefer Uncle Joe.

In other words just because they voted once for Trump doesn't make them loyalists. They have not joined the ranks of his base. They'll be voting on the issues again and asking themselves not whether he might deliver, but whether he has. For many the answer is no. Trump doesn't have to fight for his base, but he does for the swing states.

And right now he's giving a live speech on what he's "done" for the environment. Nothing: he pulled out of paris, gutted the EPA, rolled back protections and even signed over national parks to energy prospectors. Swing voters are different from the MAGA crowd: they don't dig liars much.
 
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MTAtech said:
In 2016, Trump promised that his health care plan would be better, cheaper, and wider than Obamacare. The actual plan was worse in every respect and even John McCain voted against it and killed it.

In 2016, Trump said he would raise taxes on rich people like himself. The bill he supported and signed lowers taxes on people like him and raised them on many middle class families.

In 2016, Trump promised coal miners that he'd bring back their high-paying coal mining jobs. Since then, coal companies have declared bankruptcy and coal employment is not higher.

What we see is a lot of broken promises on economic issues.

Democratic candidates are exactly where the American voters is today: Voters want higher taxes on the rich; a higher minimum wage; an improvement over the ACA, etc.
Click to expand...

We'll see. It very early. I don't let my heart talk, I let numbers talk. One other item. The generic presidential vote. Question 33. Independents, Vote for the Democratic candidate 29%, vote for Trump 26%, it depends 19%. It's the it depends category that interests me the most. my take on that is their it depends means who the democratic nominee is. They'll support some, but not others.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4ggh3e3308/econTabReport.pdf

Still 29-26 is very close and within the plus or minus 3 points of the poll. I don't know if Biden is the answer or not. Six weeks ago, I would have said yes. Today, not so sure. Personally as I have said, I would much prefer a young fresh face. If from flyover country, so much the better. Obama, Illinois, Bill Clinton, Arkansas and Jimmy Carter, Georgia were fresh young faces from flyover country.

So we'll see. The numbers state something is up. What that something is, that's for the democrats to figure out. In my book 2020 is an election for the Democrats to lose, Trump can't win it. But the Democrats could lose it. Then again, so too was 2016.
 
Helix said:
it's difficult to predict this far out. if the Democrats actually show up this time around, they have a chance.
Click to expand...

If the democratic debate are any indication of what the democratic candidates are offering to the American voter I can not see them winning.
 
antiquity said:
If the democratic debate are any indication of what the democratic candidates are offering to the American voter I can not see them winning.
Click to expand...

i prefer any of them over Tweety. however, the Democrats need to choose an electable candidate.
 
Helix said:
i prefer any of them over Tweety. however, the Democrats need to choose an electable candidate.
Click to expand...

Here's the problem, there isn't one.
 
Jay59 said:
Written like a true TDS sufferer. I am so sorry.

It is not impressive to quote large numbers of stories showing Trump is doing a poor job. TDS seems to be a job requirement at many news providers. Fox Runs 55% negative and they are criticized as biased in Trump's favor. TNYT is criticized because they will run a balanced story buried in the middle of the paper. Trump Denial sufferers don't want any acknowledgement when Trump does something right.

At least you will have a support group in 2021.
Click to expand...

I agree. It is not impressive to quote a large number of stories that Trump is doing a bad job. That is like big game hunting at the zoo. What would be impressive is quoting a large number of stories that Trump is doing a good job. Having a large collection of rare items is impressive.

The point being, however, is that I can back up my statements; you only have wishful thinking working for you.

Meanwhile, the "Derangement" in TDS rests with those that think that Trump is actually doing a good job. As my post well documents, its those that think Trump is a good president that are "out of step" with reality: deranged, as their is little evidence to support this notion.
 
upsideguy said:
I agree. It is not impressive to quote a large number of stories that Trump is doing a bad job. That is like big game hunting at the zoo. What would be impressive is quoting a large number of stories that Trump is doing a good job. Having a large collection of rare items is impressive.

The point being, however, is that I can back up my statements; you only have wishful thinking working for you.

Meanwhile, the "Derangement" in TDS rests with those that think that Trump is actually doing a good job. As my post well documents, its those that think Trump is a good president that are "out of step" with reality: deranged, as their is little evidence to support this notion.
Click to expand...
Comparing CNN, NYT, WaPo, etc. to animals in a zoo is an interesting. They all do seem to be captive of a meme. BTW I don't go with derangement. It's Trump Denial Syndrome.

I already backed up my, but you glossed right over it. Stick with Nate Silver since we agree that he knows statistics. He's the one telling you that Trump has rock solid support in the party. Obama was not close among Democrats.
 
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